Monday August 4 2025 Forecast (7:06AM)

77 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 4-8)

First, a little on current weather at sunrise this Monday morning. Across the WHW forecast area, the cool spot is Martha’s Vineyard at 46 – the only reporting station in the region under 50. The next-coolest is New Bedford at 52. Everywhere else it ranges from 53 to about 60. Why is this the case? High pressure is centered right over the South Coast region, with calm wind. The further north you go, you are further away from the calm center, and there is a light southwesterly wind keeping the air more mixed, and the temperature up a little compared to the calm locations. This is a short-lived but fascinating fair weather phenomenon to start your week. Canadian wildfire smoke is again a significant player in our current and upcoming weather, with a significant smoke plume aloft currently, and set to last for a couple more days, though showing a gradual thinning trend. Today, there will be some pockets of smoke closer to or at the surface too, reducing horizontal visibility and impacting air quality. Later this week, the plume will depart, but we may not be done with such smoke this summer. Meanwhile, our weather will be dominated by high pressure all week – first, one to the south which makes today the warmest day of the week, and second, a new high from Canada which provides a slight cool-down toward midweek, before that one itself sinks more to the south and east overhead then south of here, allowing a slight warm-up to return later in the week. Other than a few pop up showers or thunderstorms potentially occurring in the hills of southwestern NH and central MA Wednesday afternoon, we are looking at dry weather through the next 5 days. Elsewhere, the tropics are a little more active, but outside the MDR. TS Dexter formed last night from an old non-tropical low off the US Southeast Coast, but will move harmlessly out to sea. A second system is being watched for development later this week, but for the time being is no immediate threat or player in our weather.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 82-89, except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point climbs toward 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Star and moon dimming smoke aloft in an otherwise cloud-free sky. Valley, swamp, and bog fog patches. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SW to variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Smoke-filtered sun but some fair-weather clouds popping up too. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Additional smoke aloft. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind NE to variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: A sun/cloud mix. Smoke aloft thins gradually from east to west. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon in the hills of southwestern NH and central MA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-87, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 9-13)

High pressure shifts into the western Atlantic and a more southerly air flow gradually develops. Fair weather should hold through the August 9-10 weekend. A better chance at the development of some showers and thunderstorms beginning early next week. Humidity and heat gradually increases, but not to extreme levels.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 14-18)

Overall pattern features high pressure off the East coast, promoting warmer, more humid weather with a slightly increased chance of showers and thunderstorms with more moisture moving up from the south, potentially enhanced by any disturbances moving through from the west.

77 thoughts on “Monday August 4 2025 Forecast (7:06AM)”

  3. Thanks, TK.

    A light rain falls in Cambridge, UK. Wind has picked up but it’s not like it is up north.

    The cafe I’m sitting in has quite the playlist. It’s like they knew I was going to be here. The Cure’s A Forest to start things off, Roadrunner by the Modern Lovers next, David Bowie’s Let’s Dance. and now Siouxsie’s Cities in Dust.

    1. Future Cars drummer, David Robinson, a 1968 graduate of Woburn High School, was the drummer for The Modern Lovers.

  5. re: Wordle
    Needed ALL 6 guesses today. Word was a simple word, but did not lend itself to the normal starting words. The NY Times is out to get us all!!!!

    1. On the second guess, I had the first and last letters correct. I still had no vowels. I could only think of one word for the third guess and it was right.

      After solving it, I checked and that really is the only word fitting the pattern and not using any of the vowels that I had eliminated. Sometimes being wrong gives you more information than being right! 🙂

      1. It’s a crazy game, especially for someone whose brain works like mine. It’s good for me. I’ll keep it up, as frustrating as it gets sometimes.

          1. Well, thank you for the encouragement.
            If you knew my IQ you would wonder why I can’t solve some of these words in far fewer guesses. There is more to intelligence. It is related to how one’s brain is wired.

            I actually have autism spectrum disorder (ASD).
            Fortunately the high functioning version. 🙂
            Social situations are rough for me and this blog itself
            is so helpful. I try very hard not to go off the rails, although I fail from time-to-time. I have had extensive therapy for this,

            Wordle is particularly tough for me. That is why I am sticking to it as it is most helpful to me.

            Cheers

  8. TK, very cool to know about David Robinson’s Woburn past.

    The hits keep coming in this cafe at Christ’s college. I think Jesus would approve (he would have definitely been into some songs from the 60s through 80s): Lou Reed’s Sweet Jane right now, Blondie’s Tide is High was before, The Smith’s Thorn in His Side before that. And curiously, George Harrison’s My Sweet Lord thrown into the mix.

  10. Thank you TK!

    If anyone is following the Little League World Series the team from Braintree is playing Vermont this morning and it is being shown on ESPN. Game is just starting.

  15. According to Cindy on Ch. 5, there are 742 active wildfires in Canada. We “should” be having deep blue skies today as well as most of this week. Instead we have disgusting GRAY smoke, not to mention STINKY air quality also! 🙁

    EVERY summer we in the U.S. have to go through this! Those fires are all MAN made, not from Mother Nature.

    Sorry for my “wildfire” rant. 😉

    1. Don’t be sorry. It’s frustrating. I feel badly for our Canadian neighbors.

      Canada’s wildfire page says slightly more than half are man made. While all are not the half number is still huge.

  16. According to the “Smoky Bear” PSA’s here in the U.S., 90% of all wildfires are caused by humans.

    These PSA’s air every now and then on late night WBZ radio. I wonder if Canada have such PSA’s over their airwaves (radio or tv).

    1. 924 mb. Something of great concern where it hits!
      Monitor for sure. Hope it stays well North of Jamaica!!!

  18. Fire cause statistics are interesting and tricky.

    While many fires are the result of human carelessness, natural fires burn more acreage than human-caused fires.

    If you think a little about why this is the case, it’s actually a very simple answer, and makes perfect sense.

    In short, natural fires burn far more than human-caused fires do. The current largest fire in Canada had a natural cause: lightning.

    My knowledge in this area goes back decades as an expert in agricultural meteorology. This is literally one of my things.

  19. Time for the reminder about using operational models to try to predict where tropical cyclones will be in many days, especially ones that haven’t formed yet.

    The advice: Don’t do it. 🙂 Trust a meteorologist on this one. It’s a waste of time.

    1. Oh I know, but there has been some decent ensemble support there as well. Watching next week more closely than I would normally as I am going to be in the Caribbean 8/10-8/17.

      1. The ITCZ is displaced well south and Saharan dust remains above average, though on the decrease. Hostile factors. Wind shear is lessening with time. Favorable factor. Still think there will be a struggle to really get something going in the MDR for a couple more weeks..

        1. Just a reminder that the models do an absolutely horrendous job with the development of tropical systems. Until there is actually a well-defined low pressure area for the models to initialize, everything you see is a figment of the model’s imagination.

          That goes for the Ensembles as well. However, when more than 1/4 of the Ensemble members start showing something, that’s when I’ll at least start to pay attention.

  20. Noting that I am getting a lot of notifications hyping TOFA’s forecast of a warm autumn. While geographically, their forecast (to be taken with a bucketload of salt) forecast above normal temperatures over >50% of the country, the areas populated most heavily are forecast to have below normal temperatures, but they were careful in the headlines / teasers to hype the warmth, and not the cool. Par for the course, of course. 🙂

    It’s funny, when it’s the opposite, they find the smaller area of above normal temps to hype – which AccuWeather just did recently when most of the US cooled down. They went after a small area of above normal temps in the SW where it’s been cooler than normal most of the summer, and hyped that heat.

    Media. you amuse me.

  22. One more quick post before I head to do things with my musical partner (my son). BTW today’s the first anniversary of the release of our second single and first music video. 🙂 Gotta post it later!

    Weather….
    Today’s the warmest of the next 5, but temps under-performed slightly. As of 4:00 p.m., the range is 78 to 85 across the WHW forecast area, coolest along the east-facing shores with an ocean breeze. Dew points range from 58 to 67, but mostly around 60, as forecast. The high DP is at New Bedford, and may be in error by a couple degrees (too high).

    After quick review, no changes to discussion / forecast!

    Have a great evening all!

    2. I’ve never seen anything like that.

      Are you up to date with your WHW dues payments? 🙂

        1. Of course, I don’t use Iphones or anything Apple.
          I detest Iphones. Android all the way!

    1. And now Garrett Whitlock walked his first batter bringing up Bobby Witt, Jr to the plate as the tying run. It was 8-1 to start the 8th.

  28. Obviously not wanting a cat 1 or stronger hurricane, but I think the region needs a tropical storm crossing over the Cape, interacting maybe with a stalled front to provide a healthy dose of stratiform rains.

    What a dry pattern and hopefully said system would head NE into the Maritimes because they are even drier than we are.

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