Saturday August 9 2025 Forecast (7:24AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 9-13)

After a cooler than average first week of August, then a couple of seasonable days, including today as high pressure sits over the region, we’ll enter a stretch of above normal temperatures due to building upper level high pressure and continued dominant surface high pressure Sunday into the middle of next week. With a lack of strong surface gradient wind, coastal areas will be susceptible to sea breeze on a daily basis, which will keep the heat in check there, probably keeping many of those areas from ever reaching 90 during the above normal temperature stretch. Higher temperatures are much more likely over inland areas. It is not until Wednesday that we may finally see the chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm mainly over inland areas as we see the approach of a trough from the west. Summertime in New England!

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH including coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point nearing 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84 coast, 85-92 inland. Dew point around 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85 coast, 86-93 inland. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85 coast, 86-93 inland. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. An isolated pop-up thunderstorm possible mainly central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 14-18)

Warm to hot and more humid August 14 with a shower and thunderstorm chance as a frontal boundary moves through the region from west to east. High pressure brings fair weather and lower humidity during August 15-16. Next trough / front may return a shower / t-storm chance August 17 or 18.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 19-23)

There are model runs that depict a tropical storm or hurricane threat for the East Coast as we move through this time frame. However, these computer models cannot be trusted with such prognostications without an actual system to initialize properly. Additionally, looking out at the pattern for both development and likely tracks of systems, I would not lean toward an East Coast threat during this time frame – keeping in mind the natural uncertainty with a forecast out that far. However, I’m always eyeing the tropics for development at this time of year, so if anything comes up, you’ll know. My actual outlook for this period is for a fairly quiet pattern overall, maybe 1 or 2 shower and thunderstorm opportunities, and no sustained major heat.

92 thoughts on “Saturday August 9 2025 Forecast (7:24AM)”

      1. Well, even if there was a closed low to initialize, the average track error out that far is a few hundred miles. 🙂

        I guess there’s a lot of fine-tuning to do to find out who gets a trace and who gets double digit rainfall. 😉

        1. Of course. I’m just having fun watching this.
          Hope it is ok to keep posting the model runs.

    2. It’s funny (not really) how little I actually check the GFS now. Feel like my medium range forecasts have improved slightly since shedding its influence. 🙂

  3. Monitoring 2 long range models heading through late summer (2 that have done well predicting longer term trends).

    Hints are for a cool end to August like the cool beginning we had. Also suggests some significant cool shots in September, and some big time cool anomalies to our west and northwest.

    Just ideas to keep in mind for now.

  5. Martha’s Vineyard has recorded a low temperature in the 40s on five out of the first nine days of August, including a 41 this morning! Nine degrees above freezing!

    The airport there is one of the most perfect radiating spots when the sky is clear, wind is calm, and dew point is low, and that’s been the case almost every morning this month so far.

      1. Yep. Meanwhile WBZ was talking about the brutal heat and humidity we’ve been suffering all summer.

        We haven’t been suffering brutal heat and humidity all summer. Not sure what universe they are in.

        Temps for June 1 through August 8 in the Boston area are slightly BELOW average. Why do people just ignore statistics? It doesn’t mean we haven’t had hot days, but what about all the pleasantly cool ones? It’s like they don’t exist / never happened. I hate media more and more. Can you tell? 😉

        Boston’s June & July departure was about +2F. August departure so far: -5F. That comes out to slightly below normal. That is NOT a brutally hot summer, I’m sorry. It’s just not.

          1. Yeah, W-iHeart-BZ. So sad the format they follow now. I still listen for traffic now and then, and catch a few headlines for amusement, but it’s pretty much a non-factor for useful information now. 🙁

            1. Makes sense and good that you know weather. If it is worse than when I stopped listening many years ago, then yikes.

    2. Oh yes.

      We’ve been around 50F or less the last handful of nights.

      Nice cool house each morning.

  11. We don’t need a strong tropical storm or hurricane because of being blue states and Fema cuts. If we get hit we are screwed here in the northeast.

    1. I understand the concern and am not a fan of this administration, but it seems CA is getting FEMA assistance with the canyon fire

    2. Unlike the south who takes, we actually pay more into those funds. I think if the Northeast is hit by a storm of that magnitude, it would be in the best interest of the feds to be sending that aid or we could have a situation in which blue states stop sending our money and keeping it for ourselves. There already been talks about it bue states like Cali, NY and Massachusetts. Our economies up here are way stronger than many on the Gulf and the southern red states would suffer greatly if we stop giving so much.

    1. They will probably sea breeze every day, except possibly Wednesday or Thursday of next week. I think they may make 90 a couple times during the upcoming stretch, but it will be a struggle unless the sea breeze is kept at bay, or quits early, but there will not be strong southwesterly wind until just before a front gets here so that’ll be difficult too.

  15. Upcoming heat doesn’t look as bad as prior hot stuff. Also happy to see cooler temps at night for easier sleeping.

  19. For Wordle. I started a spreadsheet on letters used each day. I only went back to July 25. So far. Not sure what it will shoe but fun to do anyway

  20. MVY hit 75 (now 73) – probably their high for the day, making a 34-degree diurnal after their morning low of 41.

    Such a great weekend too – comfortable, a little hotter inland tomorrow but manageable humidity.

    The power of media: They’ve been hyping next week’s heat so much, I’ve seen people posting on various pages about “being so over this heat” as if it’s ongoing. This is what happens.

    Boston is averaging 5F below normal for August so far, and the negative departures are true for pretty much all of SNE as well.

    Since you hear that nowhere else, I’ll continue to mention it frequently and maybe the word will leak out that reality works better than fiction / hype. I can hope. At least I know I do it right here. 🙂

    1. “This WBZ Heat-Hype was brought to you by Carrier Air Conditioning Systems. Buy Carrier today or be incinerated tomorrow!”
      🙂

      1. You know it!

        I mean even the upcoming “heat” is going to be just kind of typical summer weather. We’ve been below average, now we’re gonna go above. Hmmm…. one of the least common days you’ll ever see: One that is exactly average.

    2. Pretty good that you went from 2 letters out of position with
      the initial guess, to 4 letters in position on the 2nd guess.
      that is pretty impressive!

  24. I find it amusing as to the long range posts here lately of massive hurricanes coming up here much like the massive blizzards in the winter for our area, that have ZERO chances of ever materializing. Why do the models do this?

    What are “snow weenies” called during Hurricane season? Just wondering. 😉

    1. Technically, the chance of something materializing is not 0%. The pattern supports a developing system out there in the days ahead. But … the models do what they are programmed to do. This is not a problem until people start sharing the information, most of this being done by NON-meteorologists on the internet. THAT is where the problem is.

      People like myself, and SAK, and WxW, and JMA, you know, actual scientists, know how to handle this stuff. We know what is valuable and what isn’t. We know limitations and potential errors. And we apply that, which is why our forecasts are superior to the people who are “playing weatherperson” on the internet so they can get all excited when people like and share their posts and comment with “OMG what is going on?!” and “weather modification” and all the rest of the garbage that’s spewed there.

      Yesterday, when I told somebody that earthquakes and tsunamis were not related to climate after they claimed it was and blamed the recent spike in activity on climate change, they told me that I should have gone to a better college to learn meteorology. See? The stupidity, ignorance, and arrogance of people on the internet is out of control. Everybody is an “expert”. No, sorry, but I am an expert in meteorology, and I most definitely know better than that person could ever hope to. They’ve got an entirely different (and massively incorrect) perception of the situation.

  25. SClarke, thank you. I just saw your reply from yesterday.
    I’m not familiar with Clarkson, but I mentioned SUNY Potsdam because I attended one of their late-summer programs while I was in High School. It was held at their outpost in Star Lake, and there were always some reports (or rumors) 😉 of bear sightings.

    1. SUNY Potsdam and Clarkson are within a mile or so of each other. When I went there, it was called Clarkson College of Technology. Now it’s Clarkson University.

      Clarkson was founded in 1896.

      1. Lowell and Clarkson will meet up again this season in the late game on the 1st day of the Adirondack Winter Invitational in Lake Placid the day after Thanksgiving. Yes, I will be there again.

  26. So, I think as with any tropical wave leaving the Africa coast, the next 6-10 days is watching its latitude until it gets to the eastern Caribbean islands.

    Past there, days 10-14 turns to the 500 mb flow and we won’t know that for a long time. For instance, there now could be a disturbance on the other side of the globe that is poorly sampled and will have an effect on the jet stream the models currently couldn’t factor in.

    1. That thing is a long ways away. I am not giving credit for a mainland hit or miss at this point. However, if I absolutely had to make a wager today, I would bet on a miss.

      I think NOAA is still staying with an above average hurricane season though I have not looked it up recently.

      1. Yes, they are. Most forecasts were scaled back slightly, but most remain “active”. About 75% of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic occur from late August to early October.

      2. All I am saying is let’s watch it. That’s all. Interesting watches
        all the contrasting outcomes produced by the models.

        I have a feeling that a tropical system will develop, it’s just a question of the ultimate track and intensity.

        https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

        1. One of many favorite parts of whw is following potentials, whether they materialize or not.

        2. Yup definitely fun to do here, but that’s because people know better. 🙂

          Out on most of the net, it doesn’t work out so well. 😉

  29. Atlanta GA set a new record low maximum temp on August 4 at 69 degrees. This was the first time since 1917 that a day stayed below 70 degrees during the first 14 days of August in Atlanta. Extremely rare event.

    1. A favorite place of ours. Bear skin neck? Fireworks? I’m reading up and apologize if you said more above.

  31. Thanks TK.

    We leave for Montego Bay tomorrow AM from Hartford and return next Sunday 8/17. Watching the tropics closely but so far looks like whatever system develops should stay well to northeast of Jamaica. Perhaps we will see some feeder bands in the distance out of the windows on the right side of the plane on the way back 🙂

    1. Thanks Tom, was about to post that. A direct hit!!! Batten down the hatch
      es!! Call out the national guard!!! Cat 3 even at Boston!!@
      Take shelter now!!! The world is about to end!!!

  35. Thanks Tom, was about to post that. A direct hit!!! Batten down the hatch
    es!! Call out the national guard!!! Cat 3 even at Boston!!@
    Take shelter now!!! The world is about to end!!!

    1. lol …….

      18z ECMWF AIFS, or whatever it’s called was up thru DC, then curving thru western New England.

  39. Did someone say the hurricane would recurve East of Bermuda?? Seems someone did. See 0z euro and 6z gas.
    We shall see.

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