Sunday August 10 2025 Forecast (8:46AM)

94 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 10-14)

Your Sunday update will be a quick one, not requiring much effort on my part other than a minor tweak to limit the shower and thunderstorm chance to a cold frontal passage Thursday. The days leading up to that will be dominated by high pressure at the surface and aloft with warm to hot summer weather and a daily opportunity for cooling coastal sea breezes. Humidity, while increasing and somewhat noticeable, will never become oppressive during this stretch.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84 coast, 85-92 inland. Dew point around 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85 coast, 86-93 inland. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85 coast, 86-93 inland. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 86-94 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 15-19)

High pressure brings fair weather and lower humidity during August 15-16. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances appear possible from later August 17 into August 19. Temperatures near to above normal for the stretch but no major heat appears likely.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 20-24)

Overall pattern presents seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures with a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms in an otherwise mainly rain-free pattern. A little sanity among all the social media hype about East Coast hurricanes once again: As usual, as a meteorologist, I monitor the tropics. I see what “the models” say. I also know how to utilize the models, which also means knowing when they cannot give you reliable information. If you read this blog frequently, you know the drill on this. Watching the pattern. If there comes a point I feel there’s a threat of something in this forecast time frame, or any point going forward, you’ll know, and the information will be passed along in a responsible manner.

94 thoughts on “Sunday August 10 2025 Forecast (8:46AM)”

        1. I feel good with 4, would rather 3, but I’ll take 4 any day.
          I am really pissed with 5, 6 or most especially pissed on a fail! I HATE TO FAIL at anything!!!!!

          1. I feel the same way regarding being successful, but I’m ok with getting it in 6.

            Whatever I have uncovered, I just like to feel with what is known, is each next guess a decent opportunity to uncover more.

  4. Thank you, TK

    What flavor ice cream did you choose? And are the fireworks over bearskin neck?

    1. Simple vanilla this time. I’ve had a few varieties at my recent stops.

      The fireworks are shot from Granite Pier, across Sandy Bay from Bearskin.

      I have watched them from various places, but I have settled for being up very close to the pier. I am a fan of “in your face” fireworks shows that are very loud. American Thunder does an awesome job with this show. I’ll be posting a video soon. 🙂

      1. Awesome and simple vanilla is always delicious

        I wondered if American Thunder did Rockport.

        1. They do the best Cape Ann shows, Rockport and two in Gloucester. The Rockport show is on the 2nd Saturday of August for the Illuminations celebration. Gloucester’s shows are July 3 and the Saturday before Labor Day.

          1. That’s awesome. We often stayed at the Good harbor inn or is it hotel in summer when I was younger. I don’t recall shows then. Darn

        1. My favorite is Brighams but it has to be at the ice cream counter. There is a huge difference between Brighams and supermarket

  5. MVY … low of 48 today, making it 6 out of the first 10 days of August with low temps below 50 degrees.

  6. Did someone here recently say that the potential hurricane we have been tracking would recurve East of Bermuda?

    Well so far awfully close

    0Z Euro

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-met&rh=2025081000&fh=246&r=nwatl&dpdt=&mc=

    6Z GFS

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-met&rh=2025081000&fh=207&r=nwatl&dpdt=&mc=

    We shall see what the 12Z runs have to say.

    Here is the latest from NHC

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    Getting more bullish. Looks like we will have a closed low soon and then the models can be a bit more accurate.

    Early spaghetti tracks

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/97L_tracks_latest.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/97L_gefs_latest.png

  8. Wordle was a 4 for me today. I finally broke from the 5s and managed to solve in 3 minutes as opposed to a few lately that took an hour plus and a few walk away

    1. I either get it in about 5 minutes or else, else it is a fail. I don’t have the patience to be at it for an hour. Today was about 3 minutes or so. 🙂

      2. I don’t have the patience either. It’s why I walk away. And often why I just enter and fail

    2. I got it in 3. My first guess gave me the first and last letters in the right position and one other in the wrong position.

      My second guess was stupid – I misspelled the word I wanted, but that misspelling is also a word, and a weird one!

  9. Watching an interesting series on Amazon. It gets a bit violent at times, but it is a thrilling series to watch.

    It is called The Cleaning Lady

    I guess it was originally aired on FOX, a network I loathe!!
    But I am watching on Amazon Prime. 🙂

    1. I’ll add to my list. Thank you. I finished the rookie and have 1.5 seasons of Castle left. I enjoyed both

        1. BTW I agree with you, I think I am looking at something that is now further south than a couple of days ago.

          I also agree with TK, it’ll be a CAT 5 on social media by middle of the week!

          1. Of course. But we’ll be looking and trying to determine likely track and intensity.

            Waiting on 12Z runs….

    1. Now we wait for the Euro. The Canadian is running and it looks
      to go farther South and West than the GFS, so far anyway.

  15. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=500wh_nb&rh=2025081012&fh=144&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    12z GDPS run

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2025081012&fh=153&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    12z GFS run

    I don’t think I can take the GFS op run seriously. It doesn’t fit clmatologically. A trof just west of Bermuda in the open Atlantic sending 97L well east of Bermuda? Nah …..

    At least the 500 mb flow on the GDPS looks more climatologically sound for August.

    I’m following that run to the end.

      1. The whole GFS scenario seems off.

        It’s track seems way north of the ensembles to begin with as it approaches the windward islands and then that strange trof to the west of Bermuda.

        Could it be spot on, sure ! But, I’m thinking it’s wildly off.

    2. Can’t take any of those runs seriously until we have closed low pressure at initialization. We’re “almost” here, but not yet.

  16. Stuff…

    * Tropics
    I do think by this evening we’ll finally have a low pressure circulation there on that current strong tropical wave. At that point, the initialization of guidance is “better” but this DOES NOT mean that suddenly every model run is going to be telling us the correct path. Model guidance is susceptible to large errors out in time, and this has to be taken into account too! Importance will be on ensembles and trends for quite a long time. Social media will act like we’re staring down the barrel of a CAT 5, while in reality we have no idea how formidable the storm ends up, nor which path it may take. The proper method of monitoring, analyzing, and predicting should be used, and you know WILL be used here.

    * Our Weather / Heat
    I think Boston (Logan) will reach 90 on one day during the coming stretch of warmer/hotter weather. Sea breezes will thwart the rest of the attempts. A modest heatwave will take place for inland areas. Again, humidity will fail to reach oppressive levels, making this relatively easier to take than a couple previous hot spells.

  17. Incidentally, after a cool off later in the work week, signals suggest warming up to a hot next Sunday.

    Watching that closely as the camp my wife and 2 daughters is this Saturday to the following, they have a new location in southeast Mass and it looks toasty again next Sunday.

  18. Acknowledging TK’s important point of net yet having a closed circulation at initialization, just climatologically, the GDPS looks more in line with climatology of the 2 simulations just run at 12z

    1. Not for nothing, but the upper-level pattern for most of the summer thus far across the US hasn’t followed climatology.

    2. This has been a very anti-climatology summer in much of the N HEM so that factor would likely be diminished, even if we were dealing with a model run initialized with a close circulation. So there are 2 big strikes against the GDPS right there. 🙂 It’s also not great with tropical cyclones even when there is a proper low to initialize.

  21. One thing for sure ….

    We are out of the hr 300 and beyond on this.

    Coming into the 10-11 day range.

    By Tuesday/Wesnesday, we’ll be under 200 hrs

    1. Natures AC has lower temps along Boston coast but Seems to be a number of 90s as close to the coast as the Roxbury Cambridge Somerville arc.

  28. 88 here with dp 69!!! Feeling it today!

    While Logan is 79, dp 64.

    What a difference a few miles makes!!!!!

  29. Now there is a closed low pressure circulation there and something for the guidance to bite on a bit more. HOWEVER, still use extreme caution at this range. Keep in mind the average model error for everything, and the fact it will come down to details many days from now in the upper and surface patterns as to where any tropical cyclone would ultimately track.

    1. Absolutely. Got it. This should really be interesting, even if
      it eventually re-curves OTS.

  33. Jacob mentioned this morning that this August is starting off as the coolest since 1976.

    This got me thinking of Hurricane “Belle” in late August 1976. The tropics are “heating up” sort of. A possible correlation 2025 = 1976?

    1. Belle hit on August 9, that is not “late” August. It’s also the earliest in the season for a hurricane to hit the Northeast.

      Summer of 1976 was also neutral trending toward an El Nino in the fall. This year is neutral with most forecasts trending toward a La Nina.

      Zero correlation.

    2. No correlation at all. It was early August for Belle. We actually had a fairly impressive PRE ahead of that almost non-event hurricane.

      However I am glad that someone mentioned the cool start to August! It’s been quite notable!

      1. It does not prohibit it, but it is a hostile factor. It can prevent it, or slow it down.

  36. Eric on X

    July report is out from @bhobservatory. Another Top 10 warmest month on record. Also finished with the 5th highest mean water vapor pressure (a measure of humidity). Full report at bluehill.org

  37. Also not to be forgotten – a lot of dry air at mid levels west of the disturbance. Negative factor.

  38. Since we have had a circulation to initialize, overwhelming consensus from global model ensembles is a recurve well east of the US East Coast.

    Example: (Not that I like the GFS, but…) The GFS has only 3 East Coast hits out of 20 ensemble members.

  39. Noticed a lot of local media referring to the upcoming warm to hot stretch as a heatwave for Boston. You can’t do that until you VERIFY 3 days of 90 or greater. By definition, a heatwave occurs when you have observed 3 days of 90 degrees or higher for a given location. This has not occurred yet, so we can’t use the term for this stretch. Nit-picking? No. Fact-stating? Yes. This stuff should be done correctly.

    Today’s high there was 84.
    It remains to be seen what the high temps are for the next several days. I have my doubts that Logan makes it that many days this week, as stated earlier.

  40. A local source said we’d be “pretty close to records” at Boston this week.

    Oh yeah?

    Monday’s record: 99, set in 1944.
    Tuesday’s record: 101, set in 1944.
    Wednesday’s record: 100, set in 1944.

    Nope. No record challenging heat this week. Boston will struggle to even get 3 days to reach 90.

    1. Let me guess the “local” source:

      WBZ radio iHeart? 😉

      Regardless, a Heat Emergency has been declared for Boston by Mayor Wu for Monday-Wednesday.

  41. The 00z GFS op run looks better vs its 12 and 18z previous runs. Simulated center much more in line with ensemble projections.

  42. Just my opinion that east of Bermuda isn’t likely.

    Glad to see this run showing btwn the east coast and Bermuda.

    Now it’s watching the models over the next 4-6 days get the jet stream right across the northern us.

    Seeing some signals of bagginess at 500 mb in the Great Lakes, east of a big western ridge. That has to be watched as well as where the main jet stream is over or north of New England.

  43. I heard on late night radio news that record levels of “mugginess” east of the Rockies due to climate change.

    1. That’s a very generalized statistic.

      1) Those records don’t go back that far for widespread regions.
      2) Some locations have had a very humid summer, for some the more humid recorded (but again, those records are not old and not widespread).

      That’s kind of a weak claim, but according to mainstream media, any unusual weather is due to climate change. It’s more complex than that, trust me.

      And while I am certainly not a denier of our impact on our environment, I am fully aware that the broad term “climate change” gets used for things it doesn’t fully (or in some cases at all) apply to.

  44. Everything is relative in life, including how we perceive weather.

    What people here call “oppressive heat” would be considered warm late September days. Not much humidity, around 80F by mid to late afternoon and rather cool, even chilly, in the morning. Left my hotel this morning and it was 52F.

  45. Mugginess is not a thing here. Nor are there any mosquitoes. Windows are wide open all the time. No screens. It’s a totally different climate and wildlife setting.

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