Monday August 11 2025 Forecast (7:15AM)

117 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 11-15)

High pressure surface and aloft keeps our weather very “Augusty” into midweek with daily sunshine, hotter temps inland and cooler coastal sea breezes, and moderate to borderline high humidity, but short of oppressive. Thursday, a cold front passing through the region may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, but it remains to be seen how widespread they will be. While that day is a little less hot, it will likely be the most humid day of this week, before drier and slightly cooler air arrives behind that front on Friday.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85 coast, 86-93 inland. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85 coast, 86-93 inland. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 86-94 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point falls below 60. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 16-20)

Watching for a frontal boundary to bring a shower / thunderstorm chance later August 17 or August 18, and again later August 19 or early August 20, though much of this period will feature rain-free weather and near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 21-25)

Watching the tropics for a potential system somewhere off the US East Coast early in the period, but this is a very tentative and low confidence outlook, with many days left to figure out the future development and behavior of a system still very far away. Otherwise, watch for one more frontal boundary nearby at some point mid to late period with a shower and thunderstorm chance.

117 thoughts on “Monday August 11 2025 Forecast (7:15AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    So far that tropical system we have been watching looks to pass somewhere between US East coast and Bermuda, perhaps very close to Bermuda. Long way to go yet.

  3. Just as a “point-out”. The disturbance in the middle of the Atlantic (west of the stronger wave), is the one the models were previously keying on for a hit anywhere (and everywhere) along the East Coast. How did that work out, eh?

  4. Thanks TK !

    Wordle: miracle 2. I think a little Devine intervention ….. why ?

    Well, I drove my wife to the ER this morning at 5am. She has a severe pinched nerve in her back and my wife is tough and for all the years we have been together, I have not seen her unable to tolerate pain. But, no matter the sleep or sitting position, she couldn’t find a position that was tolerable.

    So, they have since given her a lot of stuff (pills, a shot and a sticky pad right over the shoulder) to hopefully ease the inflammation a bit and will monitor her until there is some improvement.

    But anyway, when they took her to get a shoulder xray, I played Wordle to try to take my mind off things and low and behold, got it in 2.

    1. Sorry to hear about your wife. Hoping all the treatment is helping!!!

      re: Wordle
      AWESOME!!!! Good feeling to get it 2!!!
      For me, it was 4 today.

    3. I wish all the best for your wife’s recovery.

      Good job on Wordle! I got it in 4 today.

      1. You and I are at the end of the line for today. 🙂 🙂 🙂
        You usually lead the way.

    5. Darn. So sorry to hear your wife is in pain. By monitor your wife, will she stay in the hospital. Sending prayers for her to feel 100% very quickly.

      Awesome 2. And there are times I feel I’m getting an assist from some angels. Sure sounds as if you did.

    6. Wordle was a three for me. Took one minute with nothing in guess one. It was also a night I felt I might not be playing alone.

  5. Logan 81, with a light NW wind so far, but at 5mph, very likely to switch to a sea breeze very soon.

    83 here, dp 67

    1. Those ensembles present a track that re-curves NorthEastward
      near or over Bermuda. Still a long way to go, but early signs keep it well away from the US East Coast.

      2. Though unlikely storms like irma etc were all looking to go harmless out to sea until they didnt. I want to see that ridge and troigh placement get a bit more solidified before saying much passed what it will do once north of 20/60

        1. For SURE nothing is etched in stone just yet, just that EARLY indications are for the re-curvature NorthEastward.

          We shall see how it all shakes out in the end.

  12. I mentioned a series yesterday, The Cleaning Lady.
    I said it was available on Prime, not so. My bad.
    It is on HBO MAX which I subscribed to via Prime, so it shows
    up on my Prime. Sorry for any confusion.

  14. Logan is now at 88 with SE wind a 7 mph.
    Will they jump to 90 oR will the temp drop off a bit now that
    the wind has gone on shore?
    We shall see.

    88 here, dp 66, We touched 90 at 10:12

      1. I’ll never understand why we Logan to represent the entire state. Even a few miles in makes little sense.

              1. Which is too bad since many sea breezes don’t penetrate from Boston Common westward into the neighborhoods.

                The official readings were taken at Boston Common up until 1936.

                2. Even the common is not representative of the state. My first thought would be the blue hill observatory. But there may be other places.

                1. Heat waves are determined by city, and not state. Otherwise states like Texas and Florida would have 1 heat wave that lasts for 4-6 months every year.

                2. Thank you. So when a meteorologist forecast a possible heat wave, what area/city/town does that apply to? Much of the state is on day 2 of 90+

  15. Do the longer term models TK mentioned the other day still show cooler temps later in August and into September? Keeping my fingers crossed.

  17. Did the GFS finally have a stroke and DIE on us?
    NO 12Z data yet either on Pivotal or Tropical Tid Bits.

  22. Still no tornadoes in New England in 2025.

    Average is 9 for the year.

    Average to date is 6 or 7.

    1. Works for me. I’ve spent more times in the basement since we moved here since I have pretty much my entire life. Maybe different areas played a part in it. I’m sure not a fan of tornadoes

      1. WP ran out of replies above, so the heatwave answer is: It depends on which meteorologist and which forecast area.

        Since they are measured at official stations, a Boston area forecaster is often talking about Boston, but some of them will specify when they think the airport may fail to have one while inland areas do.

  23. Thanks all.

    We got home about 11am and I got some sleep the last few hours.

    Now on a steroid and other new stuff, I woke up to my wife feeling improvement. She’s engaged in conversations that she just couldn’t focus on the last 48-72 hrs, so, thank goodness !

  24. Wind just variable enough for the thermo at Logan to register 90 (pending the rounding correction). Reported high so far through 18z is 89. I suspect the 90 will hold (may even go just over that if the sea breeze is weak enough).

    Either way, not impressive heat by August standards, and the dew point is only in the lower to middle 60s, which is far from oppressive. Record high for the date today is 99 set in 1944. *** YAWN ***

  26. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2025081112&fh=186&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500h_anom&rh=2025081112&fh=186&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    NAO, now positive, projected to head to at least neutral.

    These GFS and Euro 500 mb height anomolies show the higher pressures around the arctic circle, suppressing a closed low in SE Canada, dipping the jet strongly through New England and keeping the tropical system far offshore.

    This would be great, but it is for 10 days out, so, perhaps there’s a chance the models have the big features right. After all, they did sniff out the setup 10 days out that led to the June 24th 100F+ day.

    But, as you know, there are tons of examples where the 10 day lead doesn’t pan out.

    Put that high altitude blocking in a different spot and it can lead to different outcomes. Of course, perhaps they have the blocking too weak and the system could end up even further east than currently projected.

  27. Erin thoughts…

    NHC intensity forecast too high too soon.
    Too much dust and dry air in the path of Erin, which is basically devoid of any convection. In fact, the small size of the storm makes it more susceptible to the hostile conditions and Erin may weaken before eventually reorganizing. Should become a hurricane eventually, but later than the current NHC forecast indicates.

    Ensembles from both GFS & ECMWF indicate 80% likelihood of a recurve well east of the US East Coast.

    Long way to go / long time to follow.

    Avoid the internet hype of armchair “mets” / a.k.a. “social mediaologists” – a phrase I saw someone use the other day that I liked. 😉

    Thoughts on our weather…

    No changes to my discussion from this morning. 🙂

    1. TK, there is a simple solution to all of this. All you have to do is flip the NoHem with the SoHem thereby reversing the Coriolis effect and in turn, Erin will curve south into the open southern Atlantic.
      I don’t think that is asking too much. 🙂

  29. It was pointed out to me that the NWS Mean Temp Percentile map for July is messed up.

    They list Boston in a region of “much above normal”. It was +1.9F. That is not “much above”. It’s “above”. Similar for Providence and Hartford (+1.2F, +2.0F).

    It lists the Shenandoah Valley as “record warmth”, yet no official station in the region had any record warmth for the month. All the stations there reported their 4th to 12th warmest July. That’s not “record warmth”. If it was, the majority of those stations would be at #1 warmest. None of them are.

    Something is amiss. Time to look into that.

      1. I agree with Top 10 in their case.

        The NOAA map is still incorrect, even though I think there is no issue with Blue Hill’s data. They have a great record of accuracy.

        It’s the largest discrepancy I’ve seen on any of these maps so far, so I’m trying to figure out why that’s the case. Perhaps just an honest mistake, but the Shenandoah Valley is an awfully big one if that’s the case.

  30. Forecast range for high temps inland today: 86-93. Observed high temps today: 86-93 (so far).

    The coast was a little warmer than forecast as the sea breeze was weaker than anticipated.

    2. Thanks, TK.

      Have you tried “double bergamot” Earl Grey tea as your caffeine component? Bergamot is supposed to be a specific help…

  32. The Farmer’s Almanac (from Maine), not to be confused with The Old Farmer’s Almanac (from NH) is out.

    Without having seen it yet, they will call for a cold & snowy New England winter as they do annually. 😉

    Social media should be abuzz with it in 3….2….1…. 😀

  33. Happy Birthday Joe Jackson!

    Everybody knows “Is She Really Going Out With Him” and/or “Steppin’ Out”, but this is the opening track from his 1991 album “Laughter & Lust”, which is a fabulous piece of work from start to finish. Joe never was shy about being “obvious” about his thoughts. 😉

    JPD you might like this one…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxcjA01oGyw

    1. Here’s a bonus track, a cover of Fleetwood Mac’s “Oh Well”, performed live in Sydney in 1991.

      Joe Jackson: Lead vocal.
      Ed Roynesdal: Keyboards.
      Tom Teeley: Guitar
      Graham Maby: Bass
      Mindy Jostyn: Various handheld instruments
      Sue Hadjopolous: Percussion
      Dan Hickey: Drums

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgfszdcraxA

    1. Eventually, but probably later than their current forecast.

      Three big negative factors…
      1) Saharan dust.
      2) Cooler than average water temps.
      3) Mid level dry air.
      4) Low level stability.
      5) Lack of deep convection / recent dry air entrainment.

      Only 2 of these are mentioned in the NHC discussion. ALL of them should be taken into account.

  35. Per climate section daily report, Logan has a high of 90F, at 3:28pm today.

    With very light winds, sun and a very warm airmass, the very top layer of water in the ocean has really warmed up today.

    Think it’s 72F at the buoy east of Logan, 79F from a buoy down in Cape Cod Bay north of Barnstable or so and 75F in Nantucket sound (water temps)

    1. I got a report from Hampton Beach today that the water temp is very nice there (warmer than when I was there last Thursday).

      I’m going up Wednesday afternoon / evening. I’ll take a water walk. 🙂

  36. Found this how accurate the Almanac is in this article from The Hill
    A study conducted by John E. Walsh and David Allen, published in the 1981 edition of Weatherwise, showed that only 50.7% of both almanacs’ historical temperature forecasts and 51.9% of their precipitation forecasts panned out correctly.

    1. Gee, a coin flip. Guess head vs. tails, and you’ll be right approximately 50% of the time. 🙂

      Almanac forecasts for winter are useless because they are made 4 to 5 months before the best information about the upcoming pattern is available.

  37. Let’s see how it does with two cold snaps its predicting for the area mid January and mid February. Frequent snowstorms are expected across New England, while the Atlantic Coast could see plenty of wintry mixes of snow and rain.

    1. They went wet in the Southeast, which is a pretty bold (and not smart) leaning while we trend toward a weak La Nina and probably lack a strong southern jet stream.

      But again, these “forecasts” are made with exceedingly inadequate information.

  38. If you wanna talk winter, let’s look at 2 long range models that have done quite well of late…

    CFS leans toward a chilling trend with near to below normal precipitation.

    CanSIPS is consistently cold and dry from one end to the other, and has been for several consecutive first-of-month runs.

    The early signals from the first available indices support the CanSIPS simulation.

    All of that said, THERE ARE STILL MANY INDICES LEFT TO FIGURE OUT. Don’t think the above is MY winter forecast, which will be issued just before Thanksgiving.

  39. I wonder if there will be a clipper system this upcoming winter. I can’t remember the last clipper system we had. Sometimes they slow down and you could get a 3-6 4-8 type snowfall.

    1. We’ve had a few over the last few winters, but not really the “classic clipper”.

  40. I forgot a negative factor upcoming for Erin, in addition to the ones I already mentioned. That is a strong potential for northwesterly shear in 4 to 5 days that would impact the ability of the storm to intensify.

    1. She’ll struggle for a while, but eventually overcome and get into a better environment, but by the time she starts cooking, she’ll be gaining latitude and getting ready for recurve. We have a long way to go, but odds continue to heavily favor a recurve well off the US East Coast. Early in the game though.

      If you didn’t see my note of this earlier, the disturbance ahead of Erin was once forecast by various models to be a major hurricane hitting New England, the Mid Atlantic, the Southeast, Florida, the Islands, going into the Gulf, and probably taking a shot at the moon too 😉 is now pretty much non-existent, heading northward into the open Atlantic.

      There is a REASON why myself and other mets mention the inadequacy of the models for systems that have not formed yet. We know what we’re talking about. 😉

  42. Still 91. DP up to 72. Nws high was 94. Not as oppressive to me as the last 90 stretch. Please know I am judging by a walk to my driveway. For many without AC or working outside, I’m sure it’s nasty. Or I’m getting used to it.

  43. 6:00 p.m. roundup.

    Most of my forecast area now sits in the 84 to 91 temp range with dew points 58 to 66 – not too bad really.

    The dew points are higher over the South Coast / Cape Cod, at 64 to 69, but there the temps are also cooler, ranging from 73 to around 80.

        1. Although as of a bit ago, I am now conforming. And would like to conform more with a significant drop.

      1. For sure. I know we have one or two roaming sutton but I’m told it’s fairly typical for several to be in the deepest part of purgatory chasm in sutton

  47. Not that it affects New England, and it’s also in the NHC’s 11pm Erin discussion, that some of the latest runs put Erin a bit further southwest in about 144-168 hrs.

    Interested to see the 00x runs.

    Put something closer to the SE US coast and then we do need to watch that northern us jet stream. A lot can change 8-9 days out from what they are showing currently, especially when disturbances have to round a pacific ocean trof and a western us ridge and probably haven’t been sampled yet.

    1. Thank you Tom. How is Mrs Tom tonight??

      Hopefully TKs migraine is gone.

      Something is in the air today. I’ve woke up with a screaming headache.

      1. Better, sore, but tolerable discomfort. And sleeping vs tossing and turning.

        Hope your headache has eased.

  48. Thanks, TK.

    You mentioned Joe Jackson. Love his album from 1982. I think it’s called Night and Day? I own several of his records (vinyl).

    He often performs at Alexandra Palace, 800 yards from where my daughter lives.

    I am going around from one medieval church to another. Most recent one is from 1040. Steeple or tower looks like a chess piece, a rook. It’s warm in the afternoon here, but very manageable. Rained last night.

    1. Night and Day is a great album.

      Joe’s career has been productive and diverse. I recommend traveling through it (Spotify or other online services are easiest).

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