Tuesday August 12 2025 Forecast (7:08AM)

102 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 12-16)

High pressure dominates with fair weather and a peak to the hot stretch today. It will still be on the hot side Wednesday and Thursday but down a couple degrees on average each day while the humidity increases a bit. Isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms may pop up on Wednesday. Thursday, a cold front will bring a better chance of showers and storms. Canadian high pressure brings fair weather and lower humidity late week.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 80-87 coast, 88-95 inland. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls below 60. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point under 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 17-21)

Briefly hotter August 17 with late-day or evening shower/t-storm chances with a cold front approaching. Fair, lower humidity but seasonable warmth early to middle portion of next week. Watching the track of forecast Hurricane Erin which is expected to be somewhere offshore of the US East Coast by the end of the period, generating higher surf at our shoreline.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 22-26)

Forecast Hurricane Erin generates rough surf early period during what is most likely a well-offshore recurve. Fair weather early to mid period. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase later in the period from moisture moving in from the west and south.

102 thoughts on “Tuesday August 12 2025 Forecast (7:08AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK. Made 93 here yesterday .
    I expect 94 or 95 today, unless the seabreeze makes it here which would be nice.

    2. I also got a 3. My first guess gave me three letters, none in the right position. That’s a lucky start!

      1. Wow!!! I give up
        I got it in 4 and thought I did OK. Guess not.
        Although, I have gotten the word the last 17 ganes in a row without a fail, so I guess that is some improvement. Still I am NOT happy unless I get it in 3 or less. I’ll accept 4, but 5, 6 or fail is UNACCEPTABLE!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. You are hard on yourself. 🙁

          You’re doing great.

          I believe the average for most is 4. But just think of the possibilities to solve a word in six guesses without one hint of what it is

    3. Excellent for everyone. 5 for me too. My fourth guess had me chuckling. It rhymes with the actual word.

      1. Good this is gone. But I’m Not sure if I understand. You have a series of them separated by a specific Amount of days?

        I always did too but never heard anyone else say the same. I woke up with my headache from yesterday also but not as severe. It’s almost migraine like…over left eye. But my migraines were always over right eye.

        Odd things, aren’t they.

      1. Hahahahaha. I know you may not have meant that to be funny and it’s not since it’s so true. But I’m laughing here

      2. That is a way cool map!!!! Thank you!!!!

        Take a sharpie and extend it Westward to I don’t know, say Mar‑a‑Lago

        1. Hurricane models show Erin struggling for much of the week while the regular models do not. A weaker storm will stay farther south and west.

          1. Thank you SAK,
            Ok, then what?
            Does that give it a better chance to come up the coast?
            Or will it still take the NE turn OTS? Just later than
            the global models?
            Fun to watch, regarless.

  11. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500h_anom&rh=2025081200&fh=186&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    Most negative NAO projected just after August 15th and you can see how the above avg heights over Greenland westward suppress a large upper low just west of Labrador keeping strong northwest flow over New England.

    If all this holds, I think surfers will be happy. A weaker Erin will initially track it further south and west, but the above 500 mb pattern would give it no chance to get to us, netting a track northwest of Bermuda but southeast of us. A nice wave machine for the mid Atlantic and northeast.

    Hopefully still, 8-9 days out, the projected negative NAO is reasonably accurate.

  13. 88 at the airport with still a West wind. Dp down to 57

    Here it is 88 with dp 61

    Logan sure looks to hit 90 today.

  14. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500wh_nb&rh=2025081200&fh=180&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500wh_nb&rh=2025081212&fh=168&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    Another thing possibly sending Erin further south and west initially, is a bit stronger central Atlantic ridge. 00z vs 12z iron.
    We’ll see if that trend is on other models.

    But, the negative NAO remains. Can see heights of 564-576 dm way up in Greenland and under it a large and healthy upper low that keeps the jet stream flowing northwest over New England.

  16. 86/66 in SE sutton. I’m sitting at barn in north Smithfield RI and looking for temp here too

    1. So few nws sensors in RI. I’m getting 88/63 at closest which really isn’t close. Will bring kestrel next time.

  17. Thanks, TK!

    I hope you’re feeling better from your aura migraine. I get those, too, about 2-3 of years. Mine look like McDonald’s golden arches.

    Tom, I also hope your wife is doing well.

    91 degrees

    After you posted zero tornadoes for New England so far in 2025 yesterday, TK, I got to thinking of the tornadoes/Tornado Warnings in Bristol County, MA in my lifetime. It dawned on me that it was 25 years ago this week that we had probably the most intense thunderstorm in my life. We were in the cellar in the early morning hours of August 10, 2000 because of a Tornado Warning from a supercell that was moving through the area. In fact, the NWS-(then in) Taunton evacuated the ops center because the storm was overhead! I have never seen such lightning in my life! In fact, we were headed to Maryland from Green Airport that morning on the first flight out for our son’s baptism and the lightning was still incredible hours later! I can’t remember if Taunton had hail, but there were many towns around us that reported hail damage.

    The storm was written up by Robert Macedo in an NWS-Skywarn report. I found it last night and here’s the link.
    If you have a few minutes, please read the report! I think it’s an excellent play-by-play of the events of the supercell from August 9-10, 2000.

    http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo/aug10.htm

    1. Oops: “I, too, get aura migraines, about 2-3 a year.” I must have gotten distracted when I mentioned McDonald’s!!!! 🙂

  20. Logan made 90 yesterday, 91 today. Will they get a heatwave by making 90 tomorrow? NWS forecast says NO (upper 80s).

    I give them a 50/50 shot at touching 90, but if I had to pick one, I’d say NO .. high will be 88.

    Also, dew points. Yup. Pretty dry out there in much of the region with dew points ranging from 52 to 62 except 62 to 69 right on the South Coast. This is not very humid air for this time of year. It was noted going into this that the dew point would be unimpressive. It’s even lower than I thought it would be today.

    Noting that the short range guidance (RRFS & HRRR, and to some degree the 3km NAM) has more convection tomorrow than previously. That’s a trend upward in chance of seeing showers and storms. I’ll monitor that. Thursday’s ideas are unchanged at this time.

    Erin… No change to my thoughts on that at this time. I do agree that a weaker storm can stay further south, but it’s only a subtle difference for now. I still think the position of the storm will lead it north of the Caribbean Islands and east of the Bahamas. Bermuda? Long way to go to figure that one out. Also note that the updates have delayed the strengthening. Yesterday, I talked about negative factors that were left out of NHC’s discussion. We are seeing those negative factors impact Erin. No surprise to me.

  22. I was out and about running errands. A NOTICEABLE
    difference from the real HUMID crap!!! Still hot, but MUCH more bearable.

    1. WBZ this morning was talking about the sultry, oppressive, conditions and extreme heat. Neither of those are the case.

      Also a reminder that Boston’s record for today is 101 set in 1944.

        1. Yep. To me that is really important because the average person will think it’s noaa. This is as bad as it gets.

    1. It does not look organized but it is far away still. It’s sort of like its disorganization means it could travel further west and south. Doesn’t have enough oomph to turn north.

      All I want is some rain out of it and a chance to see the waves at the shore … and nothing else.

  25. This rather lengthy write up is from a colleague of mine who always encourages me to share stuff here…

    “Tropical Storm Erin is struggling today due to dry air intrusions. This was readily apparent yesterday, and is why I said the steady intensification rate shown yesterday was not likely to happen The forecast yesterday at this time had Erin at 60 mph by 2pm EDT today, and it only 45 mph, if that, currently. On satellite, the storm is weaker than 24 hr ago w/ a distinct lack of convection (thunderstorms). More an exposed low-level swirl.

    Also, Erin is moving W rather fast, actually *too* fast for a nascent system in the deep tropics. The rule of thumb is forward motion to the W at 20 mph or more is unfavorable for development of a tropical cyclone in its early stages, and Erin is moving W at 23 mph currently.

    Erin is surrounded by unfavorable conditions, and will be so for the next 24-36 hr.

    As for the future track, the global models are in better agreement today, showing basically a “fish storm” recurving well E of the East Coast. The GFS ensemble runs, of the 30, only 1 shows a East Coast hit, and for the ECMWF ensemble runs, of the 50, only 4 show a East Coast hit, so anyone hyping this as to the chances of a East Coast direct hurricane hit is either wishcasting or doing it for clicks/likes. The excuse “well, the chances are never zero” is a lame statement.” The chances are indeed never zero, but when probabilities are so low, you need to discount them or at least back off, not hedge w/ “could be” or the like! Just b/c a chance exists does not mean you explicitly mention it. Our weather skills, knowledge, and modelling has narrowed down possibilities much better than even 20 years ago. The notion, “well, you never know w/ the weather!” is a outdated mindset.

    Erin still should become a strong hurricane in the western Atlantic, but main impacts will likely just be high surf and enhanced rip currents.”

  26. CPC may be a bit hasty with this, but they now have below normal temps for New England in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.

    I think it may take a little longer to re-establish the cooler pattern, although the “hot” interlude is both lame and short-lived. We go more into a “near to above” for a bit after this, but the trend looks cooler again heading out of August and into September.

    2. On my extended forecasts tonight (basically 6-10 day forecast), I went for near to below normal temperatures around here.

    1. Yes, delayed compared to yesterday’s forecast.

      It was only 45 MPH today at 2PM when the forecast from yesterday had 60 MPH. As I said, negative factors.

      Meteorology at work.

  29. Inland temp forecast today: 88-95.
    Inland temp verification (seen so far): 87-94.

    Not bad. 🙂

  30. I am wondering if it was necessary for the city of Boston to declare a Heat Emergency considering heat indexes have been comparatively low with this recent heatwave.

    Of course it’s easy for me to say since I don’t live there anymore. 😉

      1. We have one room with AC on each of the 3 floors of this house. I don’t really need AC, personally. I like a fan. 🙂

        1. If we had more than one zone (don’t ask why with this size house), I’d have my doors and windows open and a fan. I detest feeling as if I’m stuck inside

    2. My opinion: No. A “heat emergency” should coincide with “extreme heat watch” & “extreme heat warning” issuances by NWS.

  31. Yesterday took (and today will take) a little bite out of Boston’s August deficit. Through yesterday, -3.3F for the month. Should get to about -2.8F tomorrow, then flat-line for a bit before going down again toward month’s end.

    When meteorological summer ends, Boston should be very close to the 3 month long term average, verifying my summer outlook for them at “not far from average”. 🙂

  32. Annual doc visit today. Great report.

    Other than my ongoing flare up of autoimmune condition, which is in its latter stages, and the occasional migraine clusters, things are great. Heart is quiet and well behaved. BP was perfect. I cut back significantly on junk and soda and am 15 pounds lighter than one year ago. I was never “above the line” for recommended weight for my height and build, but I am now near the bottom of the zone and need some new pants (or a belt) hahaha. I like it. 🙂

  33. Thanks TK! Congrats on the healthy report – impressive considering the stress with your mother’s passing. Nice to see the comments heating up like the tropics!

  34. Google sends me a notification on my phone once per hour about getting ready for a brutal winter because “The Farmer’s Almanac predicts a cold and snowy winter.” If you recall, my prediction for their prediction was just that. Spot on. 😉 And not a hard prediction to make, because their “forecast” is pretty much identical every year. Even a busted standard analog clock is correct twice a day. 😉

    Oh yes, while the early hours of today was the absolute peak for Perseid meteors, tonight will also be decent. The sky will have less high altitude smoke and fewer high clouds than 24 hours prior, but the moon will hamper things somewhat.

  35. Hey whw is right in line with every other online entity. Your background is Taylor Swift orange. Anyone other than me wait for 12:12 am this morning

        1. Despite many having made fun of her for her song subject matter, which I don’t get the point of doing – just don’t listen if you’re not a fan of it – she’s got a gift for putting songs together, especially musically. And she’s also been very kind to her fans.

          It comes down to this: It’s a person, who is an artist, doing what they love to do. It’s really sad that so many people have to try to drag someone down for doing what they love. I’ll literally never understand it.

          1. Boy I could not agree more. She is also very generous to causes. She’s quite a talented and kind person.

  36. A little hurricane climatology…

    Of the last 100 hurricanes to be within 60 miles of where Erin was at 00z (8 p.m. EDT), only TWO have made landfall in the US. That is 2 out of 100.

    1) 1938 hurricane in New England.
    2) Hurricane Ike, 2008, Texas.

    1. And there are people who will see that online and say “See! This is why we have to watch out here in New England! It could be just like the 1938 storm!”

      1. Oh you know it.

        But the real takeaway is that storms that are there have very, very rarely made direct impact. Sadly, many would miss the obvious message.

  38. Continued sunny here, though we had rain on Monday night.

    Quite warm yesterday, though I didn’t notice it as much as the locals. It was a somewhat drier heat than in Boston and a good 8 – 10 degrees `cooler’ than our hot days.

    Today is cooler still, though still above average for London as the temps will be in the upper 70s.

Comments are closed.