Wednesday August 13 2025 Forecast (7:44AM)

107 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 13-17)

High pressure shifted offshore overnight, introducing a south to southwest air flow, higher dew points, even a layer of stratus and some fog over many areas south of I-90 and in some hilly terrain of north central MA and southwestern NH. This is a little more aggressive intrusion of higher humidity that I had expected, and along with a trend in reliable short-range convective guidance leads me to conclude our thunderstorm chances are better today than I previously prognosticated. Since these will be triggered by an approaching cold front from the west northwest, the greatest chance to see them is north and west of Boston from the second half of the afternoon until around sunset, so anybody with outdoor plans or traveling should be aware of that chance. Prior to that, a very warm to hot day is ours along with that higher humidity. The aforementioned cold front will cross the region on Thursday, bringing the shower and thunderstorm chance south and east with it, and we’ll note it being a little less hot but still humid. High pressure builds in behind the front, bringing fair, pleasant August mid August weather for Friday and Saturday, before another short-lived heat and humidity spike ahead of another cold front Sunday, with the chance of some late day shower and thunderstorm activity ahead of that front.

TODAY: Low clouds / fog patches southwestern NH, central MA, and most area south of I-90 into mid morning before sun elsewhere expands into these areas, but then gives way to a variably cloudy sky west to east later. Showers and thunderstorms possible mid afternoon on, particularly north and west of Boston. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH, but can be strong and gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, especially north of Boston, then partly cloudy with patchy fog forming. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls below 60. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point under 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point approaches 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 18-22)

Fair, less humid August 18. Watch for a quick-moving disturbance to bring a shower chance August 19. A stretch of fair and pleasant weather follows mid to late next week, but during this time we’ll have to watch forecast Hurricane Erin likely making a re-curve off the US East Coast, more likely closer to Bermuda than the US. This would generate higher surf and larger ocean swells along the coast.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)

Pattern indications are for a more northwesterly air flow in the region. During this period it would be a warmer start to the period, a mid-period disturbance with a shower / t-storm threat, and a late-period cooler shot.

107 thoughts on “Wednesday August 13 2025 Forecast (7:44AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Made 93 here yesterday, overnight low of 70 and currently 73.

  6. Re: Wordle
    4 me today. NEVER heard of the word. Had to look it up. Only got it by letter substitutions.

    1. Good job getting that weird word!

      I also got it in 4, and it took me a long time to think of anything for the fourth guess. I like that better than the times that there are many possibilities and it comes down to only luck.

      1. agree and thanks. It certainly was weird. After 3 guesses, I had the 1st 2 letters correct and a 3rd letter out of position. Then only certain combinations made sense. It was just a matter of plugging in letters until I got it. But I agree, so much better than having 4 or 5 possible correct answers, and getting screwed if one didn’t pick the correct one.

    2. I’m stuck at 4 and had a feeling it might be a word I’m not familiar with . My first guess was one of those where you look and say “what was I thinking”. A total waste of a guess.

      1. You won’t be happy when you see what the word is.
        Perhaps you have heard of it, but in all of my years, I NEVER came across this word. I had to look it up as I had no clue what it meant, even though I got the word in 4. 🙂
        Good luck.

      1. I see a fail in my future. I am still at a loss at five and I have three letters in the correct place.

        How did you do?

        1. Totally cheated because after my 3rd guess, I had all 5 letters, all in the wrong place.

          I then proceeded to sit for 10 mins putting in everything and I kept getting it’s not a word.

          I wasn’t going to sit there forever, so I sought some help.

          So, today’s a no get the word for me. 🙂

          1. Crazy word for sure. It took me about 10 minutes in total to finally get it. Tough to get a word when you’ve never heard of it. 🙂

          2. Just got in 6 after trying dozens of nonwords. I haven’t even looked it up yet

            A FB friend had five and said she could not even come up with a real word so she could fail and just see the answer. I felt exactly the same way

  7. Thanks TK! That Northwest flow is a nice shield to keep hurricanes out to see in this part of the world

    1. Sadly they have committed 96 errors and the worst in the league. Luckily I don’t think their errors have hurt them as much so far.

  12. I hope we get some rain during the next 24-36 hrs, I know what the drought monitor shows, but the ground needs some water and soon and then send it into the Maritimes. They are desperate, localized fires popping up there everywhere.

    1. My lawn is dying fast. The poor bunnies will have nothing to eat!
      I think I have a bunch of them living under one or both of our porches. 🙂 🙂 🙂 I love seeing them in the yard, almost daily.

        1. Me too. One of the dogs here pulled a baby from the nest. Daughter got it to tufts but it didn’t survive.

          The nests are fascinating. Mom digs the hole in what could be a protected area or in the middle of the lawn. She stands over the hole to nurse them and then closes it up to hide the nest till next feeding.

          I have two bunny grands. They are amazingly smart

  16. Temperatures are slow to rise today.
    The SPOUTH wind isn’t helping.

    I don’t think Boston makes 90 today.
    We won’t make 90 here either, I don’t think.
    We shall see.

    currently 82 here with dew point of 71! YUCK CITY!!!

  17. The Icon has run and now the 12z GFS is running.

    I like to go back and forth btwn a run and it’s 12 hr previous run to check for consistency.

    Even within the first 72hrs of initialization, the changes are noticeable.

    I get that after 120 hrs and certainly more, there are going to be understandable large changes. Fair enough.

    But within the first 72 hrs, it’s an exercise in frustration and patience.

      1. I mean it is still turning, but awfully late and too close for comfort for interests along the East coast.

        1. Yes and other things too.

          Example: does it stay hot next Monday after a 90F day Sunday.

          I’ve seen everything from a cool Monday to a very hot Monday, back and forth because the 500 mb has changed to it which changes how long the very warm 850 mb temps reach into southern New England.

  18. Just looked up the Wordle answer definition. I had heard the word and vaguely knew the meaning. I can’t even remember why I know the word. But it’s nuts adding words so many don’t know.

  19. Thanks, TK!

    Sun wants to come out here.

    Sue: Silver Lake football got more good press from the Brockton Enterprise. The Lakers’ upcoming successful season is one of the Enterprise’s top 5 bold predictions for 2025:

    4. Silver Lake will finish the season with its best win total in eight years

    The Lakers are yet another South Shore team that is trying to continue a program turnaround that started last season.

    After an 0-7 start in 2023, Silver Lake had a complete 180 at the start of last season, going 3-1 over its first 4 games. The team ultimately finished 4-6, but it was still a big improvement from a year ago. This season, Silver Lake has potential written all over it, starting with a big class of seniors and 17 starters returning.

    What can’t be overlooked from the late-season slide that occured in 2024 was an injury to quarterback Sean Barry. The signal caller sufferred a femur fracture against Marshfield and missed the rest of the season. Leading rusher Wes Griffin had to take his place, therefore taking away an element that had been working for the Lakers.

    When Barry went down, that’s when the slide began, losing four in a row. It’s easy to imagine that might not have happened if he had stayed healthy. With Barry back and a big returning class of experienced starters, Silver Lake will flip some of its losses from 2023 and finish with six wins, or more, which will be its best in almost a decade.

    Go Lakers! 🙂

    1. Thanks Captain! I will have to check that one out. Captain Bus is getting ready to deliver his speech at the sports kickoff tomorrow evening. He focused on the importance of sportsmanship which makes this mom’s heart happy. My biggest pet peeve is bad behavior on the field.

      That injury to our QB last year was ugly. I felt so very bad for Sean and he has worked very hard to make a full recovery.

      1. Just a big smile here. I am absolutely not surprised. You are an awesome mom. And this friend is smiling ear to ear too

  20. The Little League Baseball World Series begins today. Fairfield CT plays Richmond TX tonight at 7 pm. Braintree MA take on Irmo SC tomorrow afternoon at 3 pm.

      1. This is awesome. I was wondering when the WS starts. My dvr auto records all games thankfully. I suspect it would be impossible to arrange every game around work hours.

  21. Heard the fast version (with different lyrics) of A Forest (The Cure) in a Cafe the other day. It sounded like this clip, which was recorded in The Netherlands in October, 1980. Blackpool-born yet very much a London native, Robert Smith was 21 or 22 at the time. I was 15 and had just arrived there as an exchange student. I remember watching this on Dutch TV. Needless to say, I was in awe. Dark, yet evocative, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vv4dCYNcU-k&list=RDvv4dCYNcU-k&start_radio=1

      1. Yes !

        Hmmmmm is right.

        So a week ago, at hr 360, Euro hit us.

        With sound meteorology, like negative NAO, causing an upper low to drop the jet stream over us, we’ve had a week of growing offshore solutions.

        And now, it delivers this, which is still offshore, but, a lot closer.

        To be fair, I didn’t look at the Euro ensembles and perhaps not 1 member is this west with this track.

        2. To clarify something here: The Negative NAO is not “causing an upper low to drop the jet stream over us”, the NAO is negative BECAUSE that upper low is there.

  24. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh_nb&rh=2025081300&fh=204&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh_nb&rh=2025081312&fh=192&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    00z vs 12z euro op runs (00z is 1st)

    Very easy to see the 12z euro has a central Atlantic ridge that is further west than the 00z. It’s easy to tell this by looking at the 594dm height contour.

    On the 00z run, it’s east of Bermuda and on the 12z run, it’s right at Bermuda.

    It would be a long flight, but maybe a recon flight at 40,000 ft dropping sondes in the central Atlantic might be good to help the models guage the central Atlantic ridge.

    1. There is consistency in the upper level low near/just west of Labrador, which is very good.

      If that part of the pattern retrogrades (ends up being further west than currently simulated) and the central Atlantic ridge is further west, that wouldn’t be ideal.

  25. From Meteorologist Eric Webb
    #Erin’s long-term future wrt CONUS impacts is still quite uncertain.

    The last few model cycles have lifted the upper low over Labrador & Quebec early next week, which lets the Bermuda High build north of #Erin over the SW Atlantic & steer it precariously close to the East Coast

    1. There you go.

      I might quibble a bit regarding a lot of change (yet) in the upper low in eastern Canada, but definitely the euro came in further west on that Atlantic ridge.

      I just, the models are so frustrating.

      If anything, I will remember this, yet another example of how unreliable long term projected snowstorms on models will be.

      I just, I think it would be awful if there ends up being a 2-3 day lead on an impactful system, that’s just not enough prep time.

  27. Logan at 88F, so by technical definition, it may not meet heatwave criteria.

    And yet, with its 72F dewpoint, its heat index is 94F, while it was 91F max, I believe, with temps that made it to 90F, but had lower humidity.

    So, those without AC, even though it’s more miserable today and feels the hottest of the past 3 days, it’s 2F degrees short of an official heatwave.

    Maybe there’s still time, but that’s the silly part of exact technical criteria. Happens across all components in life.

  28. For the record, I think Mr. Webb is overplaying that scenario he mentioned, so with all due respect, I disagree with him. 🙂

  29. Commentary…

    We REALLY don’t need a category 1 to 5 scale for “atmospheric rivers”, which is, IMO, a misused term now by many media. Just more info that isn’t necessary and confuses the public rather than helps them.

    EXPLAIN THE PATTERN, and stop categorizing everything. The more #’s they have to memorize, the less information they are going to retain! Does ANYBODY get that???

    We need this as much as we need TWC to keep naming winter storms. 😉

      1. For the record, I did say that N & W of the city were the greatest chances today. 🙂

        1. Yes you did. I know that. It would be nice to at least get a shower as my lawn needs it, but I highly doubt it. 🙂
          “maybe” tomorrow. but watche that threat be south and east of here. 🙂

          1. I think tomorrow’s stuff fires in the I-95 belt then progresses east and south from there.

  31. We managed to just make 90 for 11 minutes before dropping back to 88. So four day heat wave here

    1. We had a three-day 91 wave here. The rounded temperature was 91 for three days in a row.

  34. We have a thunderstorm cell hitting us now. No warnings yet but rain and wind picking up.

      1. The storm is genuinely exciting! Could be the best one this year. Heavy winds and lots of lightning.

    1. The warning has:
      “At 436 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Groton, or 7 miles south of Nashua, moving northeast at 10 mph.”

      Groton is east or Lunenburg, yet the warning lists Lunenburg

      I predict a miss.

    1. 88 for Logan.

      Their high temps for the “hot stretch”: 84, 91, 90, 88. They won’t get to 90 tomorrow either.

      17 days of 90+, slightly above the annual average, nothing to write home about there.

      2 heatwaves so far this summer, nothing to write home about there either. That’s about average.

      The heatwave chances drop rapidly now due to climatology, and the upcoming weather pattern won’t really be supporting it anyway.

        1. Boston’s heatwaves are calculated by Logan’s temps. It’s the official site for the city since January 1 1936.

          Since Logan had high temps of 90+ on only 2 days, it’s not a heatwave. I don’t think the western side of the city hit 90 today anyway.

          1. Thank you. That’s what i thought. Another reason i believe the area needs to be moved. It is anything but representative

  37. NHC has been delaying Erin’s intensification to CAT 3 on virtually every update. Underestimated the impact of the negative factors I outlined here.

  38. Friend in Amherst NH got hammered with a decent storm including some pretty intense / frequent lightning. It’s moved on from there now.

  39. The RRFS model froze 4 hours into the 12z run today and nothing has come from it since. So that became a useless tool for today’s activity.

  40. Lots of lightning with 2 separate cells here at the office in downtown Nashua. Power flickered in the building. We’re at 0.64″ and counting.

    Separately – surprised that nobody has talked about the ECMWF AI version today. The AI Euro has been superior to most of the other models in the mid-latitudes, but nobody knows how well it will do in the tropics. Haven’t said that, today’s 12z solution is very interesting.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2025081312&fh=198&r=nwatl&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2025081312&fh=330&r=nwatl&dpdt=&mc=

    That is 2 separate storms, 6 days apart. Not saying I am buying it, but its certainly something to watch. The regular ECMWF shifted west significantly at 12z, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilty.

    1. I think we got hit with same storms. I’m in Pepperell. The second storm is hitting now. Just as nasty as the first one. Feels like 4th of July fireworks show with the big boomers. 😀

    2. I’ve been following it, but I forget if it was Ben Noll or Andy Hazelton or someone else who showed how the ECMWF AI was maintaining hurricane intensity for a fair distance over land and also has been well west of everything else, so, I hesitated to post it, as being not realistic. I’m happy to post it going forward though 🙂

      1. The 18z AI ECMWF is fairly similar and looks pretty realistic to me – a lot more realistic than the HAFS-A and HAFS-B, which seems to be the model of choice for most lately. Not saying I agree with it, but I’m not going to just toss it either.

  41. Up to 2″ now in downtown Nashua, 1.25″ in the past 20 minutes. Thunder has been continuous for 90 minutes, lots of lightning.

    1. Lawrence was a lot of fun too. Once Hampton’s fireworks were postponed I turned to chasing, went right up there, and just sat for like an hour and a half. What a show. 🙂

  43. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2025081312&fh=210&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    One thing from these scenarios even hundreds of miles off shore, huge difference of pressure btwn US/Canadian Border and offshore potentially extra tropical transitioning hurricane.

    1012 mb northwest of Burlington, VT to 952 mb hundreds of miles southeast of Nantucket.

    It helps there’s a lot of distance btwn the 2 pressures, but the models do hint at a short window of NNE winds just offshore that could work in concert with swells.

  44. Nothing rolled through here last night in Boston.

    Being up this early is very nice when it’s nice and warm as it has been. Come talk to me in January if she keeps getting up at 4 AM. Though I can’t really complain as she goes to sleep at 9-9:30 so for a 12 week puppy she’s doing amazing.

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