Thursday August 14 2025 Forecast (7:21AM)

125 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 14-18)

A cold front saunters through the region from northwest to southeast today, briefly pausing before finally moving offshore tonight. This sets up the potential for unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. The position of the front dictates that today’s greatest chance for such activity is from the I-95 belt south and east. While I’m not expecting a widespread coverage of storms, any that do occur can be a bit potent, with local flash flooding the primary concern. Keep this in mind if traveling or doing any outside activity during the afternoon hours. An abundance of cloud cover today will be one limiting factor for storm development, not allowing full sun heating and maximization of instability. Any shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish this evening and it clears out tonight as a dry air mass arrives from Canada. High pressure builds in Friday into Saturday with pleasant mid August weather. Friday will feature a few fair weather cumulus clouds, while Saturday we see some patches of high and mid level clouds ahead of an approaching warm front. This boundary will not likely have enough moisture with it to cause any rainfall, hence the dry forecast for Saturday, but it will lead a very warm and more humid air mass into our region for Sunday, at which time an approaching cold front will combine with the warmth and humidity to trigger late-day showers and thunderstorms – the exact timing and coverage of which are to be determined. But for now it looks like we’ll get through much of the day prior to the threat’s existence. Another dry, cooler air mass arrives from Canada behind this front for Monday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon into early evening, favoring the I-95 belt south and east. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 89-89 elsewhere. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, but can be briefly variable, strong, and gusty near any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy ground fog forms especially in lower elevations. Lows 62-69. Dew point falls below 60 north of I-90 but 60+ to the south. Wind variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+ South Coast, 50s elsewhere. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches possible in low elevations areas. Lows 53-60, coolest interior valleys, mildest urban areas. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point sub-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog overnight Lows 62-69. Dew point rises slow over 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point remains in 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 19-23)

Watch for a quick-moving disturbance to bring a shower chance August 19. A stretch of fair and pleasant weather follows mid to late next week, but during this time we’ll have to watch forecast Hurricane Erin likely making a re-curve off the US East Coast, more likely closer to Bermuda than the US. This would generate higher surf and larger ocean swells along the coast.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 24-28)

Pattern indications are for a more northwesterly air flow in the region. Some up and down temps, but trend for cooler. Shower potential with trough / frontal passages around August 24 & 28.

125 thoughts on “Thursday August 14 2025 Forecast (7:21AM)”

  2. A quick summary of my afternoon / evening yesterday…

    Original plan: Go to Hampton Beach for Wed night fireworks.

    I consult with the folks running the show there (the H.B. Village District people & the pyro company) and there was some question as to how good an idea it would be to go ahead with the set-up and execution of the display, which takes place from about 5:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. (set-up), display at 9:30 p.m.

    Initially they decided to “go for it” but the lead pyrotechnician in following radar and trends with me finally made the call himself to utilize the rain date (this Friday), which is guaranteed dry. Turned out to be the right decision, while they did not get directly hit with the bigger storms there, they had about 3 hours of fairly soaking rainfall from the anvil precipitation to the north of the storms.

    Truthfully, the activity was more potent and widespread than I anticipated, though limited to a fairly narrow area of far southern NH into northeastern MA. For the record, the HRRR model did an absolutely terrible job with this activity, so it turned out to be no help in short-range guidance. The RRFS model, which has done fairly well, stopped running 4 hours into its 12z run yesterday, and hasn’t run since, so that became a non-usage tool. The 3km NAM was “fair”, at best, so it turned into a now-casting situation sooner than I’d have liked.

    Anyway, once the postponement was announced, I turned my attention to chasing. The chase was easy for me. I just went to Lawrence (easy access up I-93), exited to a large parking area, and sat there for 90 minutes, and let a train of big storms come right over me. Torrential rain in waves, episodes of frequent lightning including many close strokes (at least a dozen under 1/2 mile, a half dozen within 1/4 mile, and the closest strike about 100 yards away). There were episodes of decent wind as well. Felt the car rock as rain blew nearly sideways a few times.

    What a show…

    1. Great chase and picking a super location.

      The very close lightning strikes would have given me a stroke 🙂

  3. Good morning and thank you TK

    Made 89 yesterday, low of 75 ocevernight. Decent launching point for today. Hope no 90.

      2. I always liked a 442. Had a friend with one. But it wasn’t a match for my Mach I 😉

        Anyone know what 442 stands for?

  8. 5 for me. Thought I had the word for sure in 4, but nope. It was another word I did not know. I think this game is exposing my lack of vocabulary as I never liked to read much. Also, My first 2 guesses yielded ZILCH, expect i knew 10 letters that were NOT
    in the solution. 3rd gues got me 1 letter in position (the only vowel left) and one letter out of position. I figured the word used that vowel more than once (correctly) So I came up with what I thought for sure was the correct word. Nope, 1st 3 correct and last correct. So I only needed one letter and I could only come up with one that even resembled a word, although I wasn’t sure it was a word. it was and it was the solution.
    Had to look it up. In this case, I was OK with 5. Phew.

    1. I think you started playing after the good ol’ days of “water” and “stamp” as solutions.

      1. You mean poor word selection for the 1st 2 guesses. Yes, I have been experimenting with all sorts of first guesses.
        reason you might ask. Well When the standard starting words kept yielding nothing or very little I started experimenting.
        I may have to go back to them. In any case, it has been a little game seeing what works for myself.

        I have a list of the best starting words. I’d just LIKE to see some results with them. 🙂 🙂

        Fun, but frustrating game. Seeing as I didn’t have much to work with after 2 guesses, I am OK with 5 for today. 🙂

      2. I absolutely agree. The game is much different now than it was when we started. I have no idea why they just don’t reuse words. Most don’t remember the days answer even a few hours after they get it.

        5 is very good, OS. I saw comments everywhere yesterday that the word was unfair.

      3. Oh, I ,missed your point. I see now. Yes, even I, a relative rookie, have noticed how difficult some of the words have been.

        1. Well ……

          Has seen some improvement but maybe a step back a bit this morning.

          Extreme soreness with some sharper pain.

          2. I am so sorry to hear this. Hopefully, he medical team can develop a plan to ease her pain.

  9. Re: Storms Yesterday…
    I was shocked to see that the storms pretty much kept their intensity right to the coast. ONly problem was that they were North of the City, Although the Northern part of the city got clipped by the Southern end of the system. Not a drop here, though. Oh well, one never knows…..

    1. Our little cell fell apart before reaching here. It’s either north or south of me or what looks to be a direct hit goes poof

  11. Well yesterday AM I walked the shore and then went to Middlesex Fells Reservation and hiked the long Skyline Loop. About 12 miles between both. Despite being in the woods at the Fells, it was hot and humid. It was a reminder that the trees and foliage can protect you from direct sunlight, but not the heat. Forests can trap and release heat and from what I have read, the subject is complicated … at least for me. There is more science to it than I thought.

    1. I believe that forests can redcue the heat slightly due to a process called transpiration. This was drilled into me by meteorolgists when I worked at the Air Force Cambridge Research labs long ago as a Coop Student while attending Northeastern Uniniversity. The reason it came up was one hot day where we were located Stowe,Sudbury.Maynard line, our temperature was somewhat lower than Boston. The Mets said look around, there are trees everywhere. The he explained transpiration.
      It has stuck with me ever since.

      Oh well, that is my thought. Happy you had a good day.
      I would NEVER hike in this kind of weather, at least not at my age. When younger, I didn’t give a crap. 🙂

      1. Thank you. I think I read about that and forgot it. I also read about the albedo effect and carbon sequestration, all of it being a little over my head. Then I made the mistake of getting off topic and started reading about urban heat islands. When I was finished, I had 2 glasses of wine!

        1. I could have used a few glasses of wine yesterday myself.
          🙂 🙂
          fwiw, I just found this.

          Do trees increase humidity?
          Trees lower air temperatures and humidity; they can also influence wind speed. Evaporation of water from trees, or transpiration, has a cooling effect.

      2. Very interesting. Thank you. Longshot, that was a lot of walking on a hot and humid day

        JPD, I agree. Didn’t matter when younger. But now is tough to maneuver

  13. Tk, did you park off of River Rd? I live about 2 miles off 93, River Rd exit and the show was incredible! Intense strikes some within 1/4 mile as you mentioned.

  16. We watched, Hurricane Katrina : A race against time.

    It’s brand new from National Geographic, 5 episodes, each 45 mins or so, released in late July.

    Some meteorology in episode 1, some science about the levies, but mostly a take on the human suffrage. I meant to watch 1 episode and got sucked in to watching all 5 in one night. I think it was on Hulu?

    1. Added to my list. I will never forget calling Mac at work to tell him the levies were being breached. I still have chills.

    2. I cancelled Hulu as soon as HandMaid Tales was completed. 🙂

      Not sure I could watch that anyway. I would get so pissed off I might throw something at the TV and break it!!!

      Almost do it nightly when the Orange Menace appears on screen. 🙂 We mute the tv when that moron comes on. We don’t want to hear him speak.

      1. You are better than I..I can’t even look at him.

        I’m interested in Katrina cause I remember my father in law worried well ahead about the many missed steps.

  17. Separately, I found reading about what happened in the last few days with a buildup of a lot of water behind a glacier, that then released and sent a flood toward Juneau, AK

    I’ve read about this before but still have plenty to learn about it.

    But, if I remember correctly, the local NWS did a great job monitoring this water buildup and had given the area decent lead time that this was coming.

  20. NHC certainly maintaining the re-curvature to the NE

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/141435.shtml?cone#contents

    Intensity to 125 mph

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 14/1500Z 16.4N 49.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
    12H 15/0000Z 16.9N 51.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
    24H 15/1200Z 17.8N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
    36H 16/0000Z 18.6N 57.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
    48H 16/1200Z 19.4N 60.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
    60H 17/0000Z 20.3N 63.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
    72H 17/1200Z 21.3N 65.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
    96H 18/1200Z 23.5N 68.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
    120H 19/1200Z 26.5N 69.8W 110 KT 125 MPH

        1. Likely Between US mainland and Bermuda, But it is not etched in stone just yet. We shall see. Bermuda still may be in play. I don’t think it goes East of Bermuda. Just my opinion.

  23. It’s amazing to me how Erin’s nearing to the Bahamas and Bermuda latitudes, how the models overamplified the jet stream.

    In the medium range now and the jet stream is more and more in retreat northward instead of a stout northwest flow over New England.

    Now, even at its current correction, there’s still plenty to curve Erin southeast of us, but my take away is, wow, do the models need to be in at furthest most, the medium range, to have any chance of being reasonably accurate at 500 mb

    1. 12z GFS is creeping just a bit more West than the 6Z run.
      I don’t like the trends. Let’s HOPE this thing stays off shore.
      However, I wouldn’t mind it coming close enough to just give us some rain.

  26. Thanks, TK.

    I fly back to the U.S. on Friday, the 22nd. With my luck, I will land (or not) in the middle of Erin.

  27. Today felt really nice. Topped out at 79F where I am (a bit warmer in Central London), but with not as much humidity as 2 days ago. It wasn’t like Boston humidity. But it was a bit sticky.

  28. In my opinion, so far on the 12z runs, it’s UkMet, Icon and so far, EWMCF AI with the jet continuing to trend further north than previous runs vs GDPS and the GFS with decent NW flow over us in the 126-160 hr time frame.

    The top models wouldn’t hit us, but the track might be a little closer to Nantucket than Bermuda.

    The bottom models, the track would be closer to Bermuda than Nantucket.

    Obviously interested which camp or if in the middle the euro op run lands.

    And the ECMWF AI has an interesting trof developing to our west.

    1. Ok, well, I’d like a mulligan on the trend is not in our favor thought, but I do still enjoy seeing the changes in the runs as time nears closer to the short term.

  33. Good luck to the Braintree little league team playing South Carolina at three today.
    Fairfield CT national little league won 1-0 against Texas last night. Tough game tomorrow night against Hawaii.

  35. I didn’t think we’d see 90 today. Not basing this on any forecast, just a feeling I had that was incorrect. We are day five of a heat wave. Not as many 90+ on the Nws map today as there have been but some are there.

    We dropped a degree to 89/72

  36. Just across the North Sea it was a record-breaking hot day, as The Netherlands recorded 34.2C or 93.5F (previous record was 33.2C or 91.7F). It was not hot in London, though certainly well above average. Tomorrow looks to be warmer as well, as we reach the low to mid 80s. That’s REALLY warm for this time of year. I’ve lived here and in the Netherlands. By mid August, summer heat (if it happened at all in a particular year) has usually come to an end. One does notice a difference between Boston and London (and Amsterdam) with respect to nighttime temps on clear or partly cloudy days in summer. They drop precipitously overnight. During my stay thus far, the warmest overnight low was 62F. Most of the time lows were in the low to mid 50s.

    1. A Swedish friend of Mac’s from when he lived in Sweden in the 50s, now a friend of mine, lives in nyc. She has been in Sweden for several weeks. I saw the heat in that area of the world.

  38. If you are not a fan of heat 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook from CPC has below normal temps for SNE.

    1. August is going to end up below normal for most of this area.
      Meteorological Summer is going to end up near normal, if not very slightly below for some areas.

        1. Well, you’re not going to hear me say that. I have some plans yet. I feel like I never even got a summer before the beginning of August. I want my summer back, and I’m taking it back. Right until the final day. That means beach trips in September too. 🙂

  40. NHC’s trend has been too continue to slightly delay / slow Erin’s intensification. Not surprised. This was pretty obvious to me. All of the negative factors were outlined and all of them played a role.

    Basically, everything is right on track (pun partially intended).

  41. HRRR performed much better today. Nailed the cluster of t-storms currently moving through NH Seacoast to northeastern MA.

      1. It is stifling down here, extremely heavy air and not much of a breeze.

        I wouldn’t be shocked if something held together on its way.

  44. What’s going on around Northampton. That cell has been sitting there for 4 hours. Or is my radar scope messed up

    1. There’s been a cluster in and around that area due to a stationary boundary combined with orography. Thankfully it’s moved around enough to avoid flooding issues.

  46. I was literally about to go get this info from NWS when I was watching Petey B and he did my work for me… 🙂

    I was prompted by the release of today’s Drought Monitor.

    This is Boston only, but it’s fairly representative for the region in general. Keep in mind that during times where convection is more common, amounts of precipitation are quite more variable from one place to another. But for the purposes of this comment, which is to show why we’re on the verge of returning to drought, I am using Boston’s precipitation departures going back 1 year…

    There is a strip from near Boston west southwestward where there is currently no abnormally dry or drought conditions, though I don’t expect this to continue much longer. Abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions are noted in southern NH and parts of far northern MA, as well as along the South Coast, especially Cape Cod.

    Anyway, here are Boston’s precip departures from Sep 2024 through current…

    Sep 2024: -2.23
    Oct 2024: -3.12
    Nov 2024: -0.30
    Dec 2024: +1.35
    Jan 2025: -1.22
    Feb 2025: -0.07
    Mar 2025: -0.07
    Apr 2025: -0.50
    May 2025: +4.55
    Jun 2025: -2.57
    Jul 2025: -0.26
    Aug 2025: -1.26 (to-date)

    Despite 2 above normal months, including a very wet May, that is a DRY long term pattern there. If this continues, we’re not far from widespread drought issues…

  47. At about 6:45 p.m. I had an impressive rumble of thunder from a CG out of the anvil of the storms near Boston. The bolt appears to have struck in Everett, well after the rain ended there.

    1. We had just an incredible lightning strike and a thunderboomer that shook the house! Wow! I am surprised the power stayed on.

    1. Awesome photos.

      My granddaughter has been taking photos of the clouds and the embedded lightning as they drive to the barn in RI.

  56. That was a wild 30 minutes! Temperature down to 70. I think the wind was so strong that it blew the cover off the rain gauge. It’s reading 0.01″ when the lot across the street is flooded!

    1. The closest WunderMap reading to us is recording 0.78″ of rain in that storm!

    2. I Suspect that was the lightning I’ve been watching. It’s wild even from this distance

  59. It was interesting to watch the storms come down to New Bedford from Boston…once they got close to water on south coast they died out while strengthening inland into Providence.

    1. That is a shelf cloud from the outflow boundary of a thunderstorm. This particular example is one that is not the classic wedge at the time of the photo. It probably was earlier in its life, and was in the process of gradually breaking up while continuing to move along ahead of the storm.

  61. Wow it’s rained about 20 minutes and got 1.43 in. Pretty nice storm for sure, storms were right on top of us. Felt and heard it really close by around 6:45 ish. It absolutely unloaded here for 20 minutes.

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