Friday September 5 2025 Forecast (7:19AM)

59 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

A warm front crossing the region pushed a band of rain through in the pre-dawn hours from west to east which has now moved offshore, opening the door for a sun / cloud mix, trending to more sun, very warm, more humid weather today, then a mild and muggy night and more warmth and higher humidity Saturday. We’ll have an active breeze during much of this time which will cut down on some of the impact of the warmth and humidity, which will be quite noticeable since it’s been an infrequent occurence of late. The “weather” we watch for Saturday is the potential for showers and thunderstorms, which likely develop in 1 or clusters / lines to our west in the afternoon then move into our region late day / evening. This part of the forecast will have to be fine-tuned on the next update and then basically now casted during its occurrence. The idea right now is that strong to locally severe storms are possible mainly west of I-95 late in the day Saturday, with activity waning as it approaches the coastal areas east of I-95. Either way, keep a close eye on things if you have outdoor or travel plans. Sunday’s forecast has trended more “unfair” with time, and that continues today with the expectation that the cold front responsible for Saturday’s storm threat will be quite slow to clear the coastline, and a weak wave of low pressure will bring additional shower chances into at least part of Sunday, favoring eastern areas and the morning hours as it stands now. On the plus side, any rain we get is beneficial as we’ve been quite dry with a tendency for abnormally dry and drought conditions to expand in the area. Even if showers are short-lived, cloudiness can linger longer, and it may not be until later in the day that we start to see a genuine clearing trend develop from the west. One thing is for sure, Sunday will be notably cooler than Saturday, with an eventual trend toward lower humidity – that trend delayed by the potential for rainfall, of course, with the slower-moving front. High pressure builds in with cooler, dry weather early next week.

TODAY: Cloud / sun mix with a trend to more sun. Highs 80-87 except 70s South Coast. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A possible late-day shower or thunderstorm favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 81-88, except cooler South Coast. Dew point approaching 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. An evening shower or thunderstorm possible. Additional showers and areas of fog develop overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers, favoring morning and midday. Highs 67-74. Dew point falls toward 60. Wind variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW under 10 MPH.,

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

High pressure dominates with a long stretch of dry weather expected. Temperature start out a little below normal then moderate somewhat. This pattern favors large temperature diurnals with cool nights / mild days.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

Continued hints of a warm / humid air (south) and cool / dry air (north) battle ground, but I’m skeptical at how much resultant rainfall we see. Continuing to lean drier over wetter with temps near to below normal.

59 thoughts on “Friday September 5 2025 Forecast (7:19AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Yay, it feels like summer !!

    I’ll be complaining by early this afternoon, when the school hallways are stuffy 🙂

  8. SPC continues to have interior areas of SNE in a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather on Saturday. Will see if this changes when the update comes in around 1:30 this afternoon.

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody2.png?1757051669

    Wind Percentages
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody2_WIND.png?1757052068

    Hail Percentages
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody2_HAIL.png?1757052223

    Tornado Percentages
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody2_TORN.png?1757051824

    1. 4 for me as well. Thought for sure I had it at 3, but alas, it wasn’t the correct word, valid word, but not the correct one. Oh Well. I’ll take 4.

  12. Looking at that it would not surprise to see an upgrade to a level 2 out of 5 severe weather risk for tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if parts of interior CT and MA there will be a 5% tornado risk. There is currently a 2% tornado risk for interior parts of CT and MA.

  13. Very different setup than June 1st. June 1st CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) was 3,000 -4,000 lift index values were -8-10. In addition an elevated mixed layer was in place. Tomorrow no elevated mixed layer CAPE values 1,000 – 2,000. With that said there are parameters across the interior favorable for locally strong to severe thunderstorms.

  15. From the 12z HRRR. Some impressive parameters.
    20z (4pm) Supercell composite
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=scp&rh=2025090512&fh=32&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
    21z (5pm) Supercell composite
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=scp&rh=2025090512&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
    SIG TOR values
    20z
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=stp&rh=2025090512&fh=32&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
    21z
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=stp&rh=2025090512&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Looks like HRRR trying to show some individual cells prior to a line forming
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2025090512&fh=32&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2025090512&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2025090512&fh=34&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  19. By comparison 12z NAM3km has a line of thunderstorms forming in the Hudson River Valley and weakening come into western MA and CT

    1. for the middle of the day on a visible satellite, that is a thick smoke plume over west virginia and southwest PA

      If that is over us, I do think it will be a slight inhibitor to getting convection going.

  22. Thanks, TK!

    Happy Birthday, Sue!

    GAME DAY! Woo-Hoo!

    Hopefully Capt. Bus and the Lakers make your special day extra sweet with a opening day “Dub”! 🙂

    1. Looks good where they have it.

      Based on the EURO, the seacoast of NH, Merrimack Valley, east of Worcester, east of CT/RI border, those heavy storms train northeastward (west of that area) and then around sunset, poof !!

  27. What I like Ryan explains it where a lay person could understand what the potential is tomorrow.

    1. I’ve been leaning toward the morning being wettest, but I can’t rule it out, given the trend to delay the departure of the system more and more.

      Wet weather is no big deal. Football is meant to be played outdoors in any weather. Football season goes from September to February. You’re going to have unsettled weather days. 🙂

  29. Question about timing for two areas.

    Is there any time frame for Sutton. And how do storms look for islands off of Portland Maine.

    Thank you very much

    1. I know I already got this info to you another way but so far the timing that I mentioned looks similar. 🙂

  30. Quick look at the latest SREF just out I am not noticing any difference from the previous run for tomorrow when it comes to the tornado risk.

  34. As previously mentioned, a dry air mass is beating the crap out of the disturbance in the tropical Atlantic, which is going to struggle and is now downgraded to only a 60% chance of development over the next 7 days.

    Honestly, not surprised in my chats with colleagues.

    Wouldn’t know that looking at social media. Chose your sources wisely. 😉

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