Thursday September 4 2025 Forecast (7:23AM)

74 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

High pressure will be off the Atlantic Coast into the weekend and will deliver warmer and more humid air to our region. The approach of a low pressure trough from the west occurs late week into the weekend, bringing some unsettled weather, though limited chances for rainfall, which we need. Other than some foggy areas early this morning, we’ll enjoy a lot of sun and a few developing clouds today – a very nice late summer day. Tonight, clouds move in from the west as a warm front moves into the region, bringing a few pre-dawn showers Friday. This will introduce the warmer, more humid air mass that will persist through Saturday, ahead of a cold front. The indications are that this frontal boundary will be a little slower arriving, allowing us to get through most of the daylight hours without a shower threat Saturday. We will watch for the development of at least a broken line of showers and possible thunderstorms later that afternoon which may make a run at areas at least north and west of Boston. There have been some hints on guidance that this area may not make it all the way into the Boston area / coastal areas, and may dissipate before doing so with the best support lifting into northern New England. The front itself would then cross the region late Saturday night into early Sunday morning at which time we could see a couple rounds of showers. While any shower threat should remove itself fairly early Sunday, we may see a lot of clouds linger during that day as upper winds fairly parallel to the slow-moving departing front slow down the clearing process. It will trend drier and be cooler Sunday than Saturday will be. High pressure builds toward our region Monday with fair, cool, dry weather.

TODAY: Fog patches early, otherwise sun and a few clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds arrive. An overnight shower possible. Patchy fog again. Lows 60-67. Dew point rises to 60+. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87 except 70s South Coast. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A possible late-day shower or thunderstorm favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 81-88, except cooler South Coast. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A shower possible early, favoring eastern areas. Highs 70-77. Dew point falls below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

High pressure dominates with a long stretch of dry weather expected. Temperature start out a little below normal then moderate somewhat. This pattern favors large temperature diurnals with cool nights / mild days.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

There are a few hints that some battle between warm/humid air to our south and cool/dry air to our north can occur in our region with better rainfall chances a time or two during this stretch, but I’m skeptical at this point, and lean toward drier over wetter, but will continue to monitor trends.

74 thoughts on “Thursday September 4 2025 Forecast (7:23AM)”

  2. This is a list of model (and NWS) forecast low temperatures for Martha’s Vineyard for this morning (thanks SAK for this info!)…

    WRF 61
    NAM 60
    GFS 58
    ECMWF 58
    RDPS 57
    RRFS 54
    NBM 54
    HRRR 53
    NWS 51

    The actual low temp for Martha’s Vineyard this morning… 43

    NWS was “closest”.
    To be fair, I wouldn’t have forecast, based on yesterday’s info, anything lower than mid 50s, because I figured there would be some south-to-north moving air preventing a temp drop. Nope! This shows you again how conditions can vary over short distances and be quite different than one would expect, even for a relatively short-range temperature prediction.

    2. Wow !!

      I wonder if the sensor location is closer to the center of the island, which does have some farmland.

      Probably had those temps above on the shore roads in Vineyard Haven, Oak Bluff’s, Edgartown, etc …….

      When we get Boston’s sensor moved, we’ll get some other ones added to these towns 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. The airport is dead center middle of the island in a relative low point at 67 ft ASL, surrounded by a state forest. Areas near Vineyard Haven to the north are upwards of 150-200 ft ASL. To the west in Tisbury/Chilmark, there are spots that are 200-300-ft ASL.

  3. Thanks TK !

    Noticed that dissipation of the cold front showers/storms on the Euro this weekend in southeastern New England. ………. Total run (360 hr) QPF is low too.

    Wordle: 4, which was luck because after 2 turns, I had nothing, then somehow on the 3rd turn, I got the last 3 letters all in the correct spot.

    1. 5 for me. Looking back at my guesses, I should have had it earlier. Oh well, I’ll keep plugging away.

        1. I don’t have an account, so I don’t get to see my statistics anymore. I kept the numbers for August and my average was 3.74.

          1. I don’t have an nyt news ancount either. Or maybe the nyt cooking account is what makes it possible for me to see stats.

      4. I got it in 4. I had zilch letters correct in my first two guesses. I had a miraculous third guess before ultimately getting it in 4. Meh.

        1. Wow. I thought it was tough with zero in my second guess. That is a great four

          Did you see the list of letters used since July 24 that I posted yesterday?

        2. Well done! I guess I am bringing up the rear today.
          Can’t get em all. I just feel good about doing much better these days.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    The Euro has joined the hurricane parade. This will be fun to watch.
    1. To see if a hurricane ever develops
    2. To see where it goes should it develop

    2. Hoping it stays away from the Leeward islands. My daughter and her husband will be on their honeymoon in Antigua from Wednesday 9/10 to Wed 9/17.

    1. Sure is a great string of days. I had to use AC a bit yesterday but it was the only day for a while. Might have to today also. For a bit

        1. It’s for upstairs. I’m fine on first floor. The problem with a new neighborhood is no established shade trees

  11. Thanks TK.

    Took out two air conditioners. Still have two left in, but may remove them after the temp surge this weekend.

    1. We used to utilize 4, now we only use 3.
      We used to install one in the living room, but we only use the room at night for TV viewing and furniture had to be moved around. So now no AC there, but we have an 8,000 btu unit in the adjacent room. We close and open doors appropriately and run a fan to blow cool air from one room to the other.
      Works GREAT! no problems at all.

      Cheers and good luck.

  13. .From Ryan hanrahan. Maybe close to your area JimmyJames

    ⚡ Severe Weather Threat Saturday ⚡

    Growing signs for some scattered strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon & evening primarily in northwestern Connecticut.

    Main threats are gusty winds, heavy rain, isolated tornado

  14. Thanks TK – currently on Long Island with my dad who has developed a bad case of pneumonia in the nursing home. At 86 he has a tough battle and next couple of days are critical. I noticed on the news here they the is a wildfire in New Jersey. As WXW mentioned yesterday the fires seem to be beginning. Something to watch next few weeks unless future Gabrielle comes for a visit

  15. Vicki thanks for posting that from Ryan Hanrahan
    SREF does have a low tornado risk for northwestern CT and interior parts of MA for Saturday. So far SPC has a general thunderstorm risk for Saturday. Will see if a marginal risk is put up for parts of interior SNE.

    1. Interesting. I wasn’t sure what air soft meant. The sure are realistic. Glad the person(s) reported and glad it was taken seriously. I do hope they knew this before lifting the shelter order.

    2. I was just about to comment about the high Dps Saturday afternoon and how I hope people haven’t removed AC’s.

      I don’t know if it holds, but some people may wish to have AC mid month. I can see some mid month September days being warmer and certainly more humid than the crazy amount of 40-48F dp days we had the 2nd half of August.

      That 2nd half of August, the Dps, that was truly bizarre. I can see having 10+ days of 50s dps, but so many days with Dps well under 50F. Comfortable but strange.

      1. DP’s nearing 70 on Saturday will most certainly feel sticky, but won’t have the impact they had in July. It’s not as sunny. The sun angle isn’t as high. It makes a difference.

        1. I agree. Just wonder if we’ve had so much acclimation lately to lower dps in the 40s, if near 70F might be quite noticeable.

  22. Thanks for the well wishes everyone – these can be exhausting days. On the weather front here NYC – Central Park 6 inches below normal – JFK 7.2 inches below normal for the year. 150 acres burning in New Jersey. I would say we are sure for a tropical event

    1. There’s an old saying you’ve heard TK and I use – “When in drought, leave it out”. There’s a corollary to it – “Droughts end in floods”.

      Usually when we’ve been in a dry pattern for a long time it will eventually flip and we turn very wet.

    1. Thank you, JimmyJames. I just txtd this to my son and older daughter. Sending to my niece and a few others also

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