Saturday September 6 2025 Forecast (8:00AM)

214 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

A hazy look to the morning sun today is due to a wildfire smoke plume aloft that moved in last evening but will be pushed off to the east during the day. Mid summer warmth and humidity dominates today’s weather with offshore high pressure, but an approaching cold front and one of the better set-ups for thunderstorms of the summer, coming quite late in the season, will have us on the look-out for strong to severe storms later in the day. We’ll first need to watch for the development of individual storms ahead of what will eventually be a cluster / line of storms. These first individual cells, if they occur, have the ability to become super-cells, and those can produce larger hail, strong winds, including isolated tornadoes. I don’t say this in the thought process that everybody will see this today. Their occurrence will be isolated, but better to be prepared for the potential in case you happen to be in one of the locations hit by one. Whether or not these occur, there’s a higher likelihood for the aforementioned cluster or line of storms to develop and charge eastward late in the day to the very early evening. Potentials with this include damaging wind gusts and also some hail. Any storms can produce torrential rainfall and dangerous lightning, of course. Many outdoor plans happen on this particular day (Hampton Beach Seafood Festival, an air show in Portsmouth NH, numerous other things). It’ll be important to keep a close eye on the weather for any of these that coincide with the time(s) of storm threats – follow radar, watch the sky, monitor any statements from NWS. The thunderstorm activity is likely to be most powerful north and west of Boston and show a weakening trend as it approaches the coastal plain more due to the later timing of arrival there and the loss of solar support, but a couple stronger cells can always survive further south and east, so people in those areas should also be weather-aware into the evening. Once that threat is by us, the cold front responsible is not going to be in much of a hurry to get through the region, and its slow movement allows additional moisture and a weak wave of low pressure to come up from the south and keep our showery weather going into Sunday. I’m still expecting that most of this activity will take place through Sunday midday and we’ll see a drying trend follow that, and clearing at night. Additionally, the warmth and humidity of today will be replaced by significantly cooler air and a more gradual dry-out, held up by the showers. High pressure from Canada delivers pleasant, cooler and dry weather early next week. By Wednesday, a shield of clouds from low pressure passing offshore will likely limit the sun, and the South Coast may be close to some of that rain, but my early idea is that it will stay offshore.

TODAY: Hazy sun then eventually a sun/cloud mix. Isolated thunderstorms possible by mid afternoon. More widespread showers and thunderstorms likely, especially north and west of Boston, later in the afternoon, progressing eastward into evening. Any storms can be strong to severe. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, and can be variable with powerful gusts near storms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Occasional showers / chance of a thunderstorm. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers, favoring morning and midday. Highs 67-74. Dew point falls toward 60. Wind variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW under 10 MPH.,

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 66-73. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

High pressure dominates the weather with dry conditions expected. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

There has been a trend on medium range guidance, not surprisingly, for a continued dry look and dominant high pressure in the waning days of astronomical summer, and my outlook continues to lean dry with near to below normal temperatures for this period.

214 thoughts on “Saturday September 6 2025 Forecast (8:00AM)”

    1. DP’s basically 64-68, except a couple 69 & 70 readings on Cape Cod.

      Smithfield RI’s sensor says 34. They need to fix that. šŸ˜‰

    1. I think the highest chance, and numbers-wise it’s still not “high”, but significant enough to pay attention to, is in the west central MA around the CT Valley, northern Worcester County, and interior southern NH, west of I-93.

      The chance will be greater from individual storms that can fire up ahead of the main line, so those are the ones we need to watch for most, regarding that potential.

      The main line or cluster, whatever form it takes, would have a higher chance of producing damaging straight-line winds.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK

    SREF significant tornado ingredients

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f015.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f018.gif

    SPC outlook

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

    Sounding for an area of Massachusetts out near Shutsbury or so. 42.43 N, 72.44 W

    https://ibb.co/svQ8hymM

    https://ibb.co/q3HwdLTF

    1. Please note that sounding shows a PDS situation.
      These soundings usually overcook things, but it is worth
      noting. This goes along with what TK said above.

    1. He was truly great. something eerie about 78. Oh, I know what it is. It is my current age. šŸ™‚

    2. Bruins draft pick, and one of the greatest college hockey goalies ever. 26-0-1 1.46/.945 in 1966-67 for Cornell will likely never be matched. (Connor Hellebuyck had similar GAA/Sv Pct numbers for Lowell, but not the won-loss record).

      1. And the Bruins traded him away to the Canadiens. My respect for the Bruins organization has now diminished even moreso knowing this. Imagine how many more Stanley Cups we couldā€™ve had over the years.

        1. He had played 1 year of junior hockey before he was drafted, and already said he was going to Cornell, so he wasn’t going to be a pro for at least 5 years. The guy the Bruins wanted was taken 2 picks earlier by Montreal. They swung a trade to get that guy, and included Dryden. Montreal knew they wouldn’t need a goalie for at least 4-5 years, and the Bruins just wanted the guy they targeted, and didn’t want to wait 5 years for a goalie. As it turns out, they won a Cup before Dryden debuted, and won another 2 years later.

  7. Thanks TK
    Going to be watching the radar this afternoon. More clouds than sun at the moment and hopefully the clouds win out as the more sunshine today will only further destabilize the atmosphere.

    1. We all will be watching. Not too worried about here in Boston, but to the West, that is a different story. I’d be quite concerned out there.

  8. JpDave what I am looking is if any individual storms could form tapping into the instability in place before a line forms. It is those individual storms that COULD rotate and produce a tornado.

  9. Latest from SPC

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1.png?1757161987

    Tornado Percentages. Now a 5% for parts of MA, NH VT and ME
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1_TORN.png?1757162287

    Wind Percentages
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1_WIND.png?1757162331

    Hail Percentages
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/fema/images/fema01_swody1_HAIL.png?1757162342

    1. Not surprised at the 5% tornado. This could mean that a tornado watch might be issued later on. We shall see.

      I am a bit surprised it is so far North.

      1. I thought northwest CT would have been included in the 5% tornado chance. I believe this is the first 5% tornado chance we have seen in New England this year.

          1. I do expect to see some sort of watch posted this afternoon for the interior of SNE.
            I could see that wildfire smoke looking out my window as the sky has a hazy look.

        1. So true. Finally entered an off word that gave me placement for one letter and only two choices for another.

          5 it is.

    1. Plenty of dynamics to overcome this ā€¦..

      But I do see the low clouds from the south coast not showing any signs of burning off, but expanding northward.

      And another band of low clouds inland, hanging in there for now, right in the zone where the best chance for severe weather is.

      But, the higher humidity continues to advect in.

  12. Sox are 0-2 since Roman Anthony went on IL

    Now, the pitching the last 2 games has failed. Theyā€™ve been down 7-0 after 2 and 5-1 after the 3rd inning in these 2 games.

    Thankfully, itā€™s Giolito, Bello and Crochet the next 3.

    What I will be watching for is if this trio pitch well, 6-7 innings and 3 runs or less and the Sox donā€™t win at least 2 out of 3 of those, then Iā€™ll panic the the KC Royals have a shot to catch us. Only 4.5 back themselves of the Sox.

    The Sox have to win at least 2 out of 3 every time these 3 win because itā€™s unfair to put pressure on Payton Tolle, a guy who started in single A this year and their 5th starter is a bullpen game, which I hate by the way, because Dustin May from the Dodgers has stunk.

    2. The Royals are 5.5 back of the Sox, and still trail the Rangers and the Mariners in the Wild Card race. They also have a brutal schedule for the next 2 weeks. The Royals aren’t the team to worry about.

        1. According to Baseball-Reference, the Red Sox have a 97.9% chance to make the playoffs right now. Fangraphs has them at 95.6%.

          There are 20 games left in the season. If the Red Sox go 10-10 the rest of the way, then the Rangers have to go 15-5 to catch them and knock them out. The Royals would need to go 17-4 to knock the Red Sox out.

          Given their remaining schedule, they should go at least 10-10 in not better, so I am not worried at all, especially since Crochet, Bello, and Giolito should each have 4 starts left.

  13. Now I am seeing more sunshine so I could confirm the satellite you posted Tom is correct where I am in CT.

  14. Snowflakes were observed on Michigan’s Upper Peninsula on Thursday September 4.

    If my information is correct, this is the earliest on record for it, the last snow this early being September 5 1917.

    The region has recorded measurable snow as early as September 12 with 1.4 inch on that date in 1975 at Negaunee Township.

    1. I didnā€™t know that, thatā€™s cool !!

      I did see it was in the upper 40s for high temps in International falls, MN for highs.

      Very cold early season airmass.

  16. I just looked a few hrs earlier and the super cell parameters are higher.

    Ties into what TK discussed.

    What I posted above from the HRRR at 12z already simulates like a well put together line of storms. That was for 20 and 21z

    Probably need to look at 18-19z timeframe when there could be lead cells, out ahead on their own.

    Later, the threat changes from tornado to straight line wind damage.

    1. Which is actually “old” activity from last night, with a few new cells on the front side.

      A lot of the rain you see there is generated at mid levels now and will slide northeastward well northwest of our area, with the new convective development being the stuff we contend with later.

  21. Beautiful breeze down here a couple miles north of Onset, MA at the northern end of Buzzards Bay.

    We did the ā€œfall flingā€ again this year where you park your camper from Labor Day to Columbus Day and we use it on the weekends.

    The DP is 70F, but the strong breeze is making it quite nice.

    The sun is trying to burn off the low clouds and has made a bit of progress since earlier this morning.

    Weā€™ll get our rain here, tomorrow. The pond is so low and weā€™ve seen that at other state park ponds we have visited in the last bunch of weeks.

  26. 80 / 72 here.

    We just got back from a hike and it felt great in the shade of the trees with a little breeze. Bugs are pretty scarce this year – not necessarily a good thing, but I’m not complaining.

      1. They may just opt for the severe thunderstorm watch and include a line something like “Isolated tornadoes possible”.

    2. I like those most probable numbers they gave at the bottom.

      Itā€™s possible they always do that, but for me, I donā€™t recall seeing that before.

      1. You mean these?

        MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY…85-115 MPH
        MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST…55-70 MPH
        MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE…1.00-1.75 IN

        I like as well.

  28. Our ā€œdryā€ Saturdays will likely end at 9 later today. We will likely begin a stretch of ā€œwetā€ Sundays starting tomorrow as well.

    With all this humidity around, how come todayā€™s activity weakens so rapidly as it moves eastward?

    2. Yes, we may have a whole one wet Sunday in a row.

      Also this is my issue with “wet Saturdays”. The vast majority of today is rain-free. That is not really a “wet day”. Tomorrow will probably be a wetter day in terms of time of rainfall than today for most of the region. Generalizations, which media uses a lot, have a lot of failing points. I just gave a couple of examples. šŸ™‚

  29. I would think if they issue a tornado watch it would be in the 5% percent tornado area and a severe thunderstorm watch in the 2% area.
    From Ryan Hanrahan
    ļø Nadocast ļø – a machine learning based product that we find useful – shows an elevated tornado risk across parts of the region this afternoon.

    Stay weather aware – we’ll keep you posted.

  31. Sun shower in Woburn from that early cell cluster coming out of eastern CT and western RI. It’s flying NNE. Huge drops, but so far not enough to wet the ground.

    1. Thanks!

      I am in contact with the folks who have to decide about Hampton’s fireworks (scheduled for 8:30 p.m. as part of the Seafood Festival) by 3:00 p.m. … I really don’t think these are happening, as they likely get hit with, at the very least, remnants of a potent line in the 6:00 p.m. hour, which would be during set-up time, and is more crucial than the time between set-up and firing the show. I don’t think they’d have time to recover even if it moved right through and was rain-free after. The other problem is it may not stay rain-free for long behind an initial line as follow-up showers may be fairly quick to move in.

      The air show in Portsmouth already pushed up their flying times. Blue Angels were bumped from 3:00 p.m. to 1:30 p.m.

      I think I’m going to drive up toward the NH Seacoast and probably land at Hampton anyway, and wait to see what moves in from the west there.

  34. Again, not surprisingly, the disturbance that many media outlets had all but given a name has been further downgraded, with now only a 20% chance of development during the next 7 days.

    The tropics are zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

    Meanwhile, there is a powerful hurricane by name of Kiko in the eastern Pacific entering the central Pacific, east of Hawaii. This storm, however, will start a weakening trend and will miss Hawaii to the north as a tropical storm in several days…

    2. If I heard correctly, there have been no recorded tornadoes anywhere in New England or Washington State so far this summer.

    1. Wisely worded.

      Ok I have said about all I can say about the anticipation part of this.

      I am going to head out on the road at 3:00 p.m.

      Option 1: Target an area with potential super cell activity, then eventually end up at the NH Seacoast.

      Option 2: Just head for the NH Seacoast and wait there.

      I just advised the HBVD that I would not attempt to set up a fireworks display on the beach. I don’t think they have a safe window of time to do it, and not enough “rain-free” time even if what they end up with is benign. So if they follow my advice, nature will claim this Pyro Tour 2025 stop, but I’ll replace that with a chase.

      I’ll check in from the road when I can!

  40. Severe Thunderstorm Warning where I am. It looks like the worst of the storm going to miss north. Could see some weak rotation near New Milford, CT

  42. JpDave on the update for the severe thunderstorm warning a tornado possible tag has been attached to the warning.

  43. That storm has been showing signs of rotation prior to entering western CT when it was in the Hudson River Valley of NY. This is not a surprise with what you posted JpDave why that tornado possible tag was attached to that warning.

  47. What is happening now a line of thunderstorms is forming. With that said you could sometimes get a tornado to form if a kink in the line forms. Some of these severe thunderstorm warnings might have a tornado possible tag attached to them.

  51. Those storms are moving fairly fast, not much doubt about it.

    Still seeing signs of slight rotation on 2 of those cells out there.
    Let’s hope the rotation doesn’t tighten up.

        1. Sorry. Replied twice. I am running from window to computer to look outside. I am still using old desktop computer. My android hasn’t been working so great lately, anyway.

  57. On the cell west of Worcester, it looks like a bow echo, maybe ??

    And being in September, with a lower sun angle at this point in the afternoon and the storms having tall cumulus, getting a great shadow look on the satellite.

  60. Itā€™s tornado warned.

    Iā€™m working without dopplar with limited wifi, but it looks like itā€™s a rotating supercell.

  61. Here is some of the wording from that tornado warning
    To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
    basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
    building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
    a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
    yourself from flying debris.

  64. At least on the Norton NWS radar, it looked most menacing at 3:50 pm.

    It still looks strong, but more like a circular blob. At 3:50pm, it had curvature and looked like it was bowing out.

    Be safe all.

  65. Wunder says tornado warning for sutton. The warned area looks much north of sutton. Is wunder wrong?

      1. Thank heavens. And thank you. I agree re wunder but can say for certain itā€™s not done this in the past. Iā€™ll blame Nws disruption.

        1. Keep watching as something else could come along.
          But the current warned one is now North to NNE of you
          and moving away. BUT there are cells to your West and SW. Keep watching.

    1. Yep. Thatā€™s what Iā€™ve been watching. Thanks again. Getting close to rainshine area I think

    1. Said Holden came out strong. But not sure what he meant. Itā€™s past there It was radar Indicates and confirmed

        1. It was not clear to me but I had the sense he meant that was the area that has the radar detected and then confirmed tornado.

          He just showed this map with the debris and indication tornado touched down just south of where it says Holden

          https://ibb.co/XkftS14b

  70. Pete reporting Nws says no tornado,on the ground any more. But straight line winds. Ans tornado could restrengthen so donā€™t let guard down

  71. Even if no tornado straight line winds could cause just as much damage as a weak tornado. As I said earlier today you have property damage it doesn’t matter if it is tornado or straight line wind damage.

    1. See above. There was a tornado on the ground. But not now.

      Pete straight line winds headed to Sudbury concord etc.

  76. It was odd ahead of the storms getting closer. I said it was super windy and then it was dead calm.

    2. It was the same here. We kept the windows open as long as possible and things were blowing all over the inside of the house before the rain. I had to check to be sure that the cat was sleeping in a secure location out of the blast! šŸ™‚

      Then the wind went very calm.

  77. Dare I say it? It looks to me that we are starting to see the beginnings of a weakening process with these storms.

    1. Frankly, I am a bit surprised they held together so well for as long as they did. Hope we get at least some decent rain here. Not a drop as of yet.

  78. going to be away from my computer for some time. Phone access only.

    Looks like S sutton due for some hail at any moment.

  84. Great. Matt saying uxbridge will sustain damaging winds and my grand is at the barn there and I donā€™t know where everyone else is.

  85. 2 supercells still hanging in there, rotating as a whole, one for the north shore and one south of Worcester. Pretty good at this latitude for September 6th.

      1. Although it looks thru my area on radar. If so we had 0.44 in minutes and few good booms and if that is it, I am absolutely fine

        Prayers for safety for all

  88. Pretty wild here in Westwood. Heavy rain, gusty winds, frequent lightening and deafening thunder.

      1. Iā€™m in Westwood Vicki. Right next to Walpole and just south of Framingham. All is well now. Just a nice gentle rainfall.

    2. Happy WIMPORAMA day for me!

      We got just over 1/4″ of rain. The temp is down to 65 after a high of 84 at 2:30 PM.

      We’re hoping for some gentle rain tomorrow.

  94. I have returned from a chase that wasn’t too bad – not my best, certainly far from my worst.

    The most frustrating thing: Missing an epic lightning bolt out of a mammatus lined anvil ahead of the storm, because I had zoomed my video from 0.6 to 1.0 and the bolt was JUST out of frame to the right. It was absolutely gorgeous, including a loop in its ionized path.

    Consolation: I did get a few other bolts on video.

    I could have gone southwest, which I probably should have, to intercept the rotating storm, and then a follow up cell with lots of lightning (noted by Arod). But I opted for north, toward the NH Seacoast. It was good there, but as I said, I’ve seen better.

    Turns out Mendon MA did not cancel their fireworks. Had I known that at the time, I may have opted for the southerly route and then hung around for the display. But my friend Paul, who is a pyrotechnician himself, happened to be right in the area and got video of the display for me. šŸ™‚

    So some man-made fireworks for after the natural ones.

    Hampton Beach cancelled the fireworks, and it was without a doubt the right call, since it rained heavily with thunderstorm activity from about 5:00 to 6:00 and then moderate rain lingered for another hour or so. No time for safe set-up, even for a time-delayed show. There’s no rain date for this show, so their next (and final for the year) display is December 31 at 8:00 p.m. But my pyro tour has other stops before that, including Somerville next week and Billerica the week after. šŸ™‚

    They also shut down the seafood festival temporarily. There is a large covered area on the boulevard that people can cover during the storm’s passage. I believe they did resume operation for a few hours this evening (they were scheduled to close for the night at 9:00 p.m.).

    The air show at Portsmouth was shuffled around and the Blue Angels flew a low show and then had to fly away from the approaching storms to wait it out elsewhere, because they couldn’t land safely due to wind and incoming rain. They’ll try one more time tomorrow, but we’ll see how quickly the showery weather exits. After many really nice weekends, this one is a bit rough for outdoor activity, but that’s weather for you! We’re only at its mercy.

    My inkling is that we’ll end up with one confirmed tornado (maybe 2) in New England from today’s event. If so, they will be our first of the season, very late and very low compared to average.

    Here in Woburn, my son observed for me while I was chasing. We had a decent storm roll in with some strong wind gusts of 40+, but no real damage. A few lightning strikes were within 1 mile, including one that looked (by lightning plot) to be under 1/2 mile to the southwest of the WHW headquarters.

    1. Sounds like a terrific day. Mendon had some of the higher winds. Iā€™m waiting to hear how my granddaughters horse is. She was working at a different barn so couldnā€™t be with Hope who Is still adjusting to her move to mendon.

      Where were the fireworks in Mendon.

        1. Hope is settled. My granddaughter and daughter stayed with her through the fireworks. Thank you, Tom!!

  95. Sox down 4-1 early, again.

    Sports, I know I get trapped sometimes into thinking pro athletes are robots.

    Major human psychological part of sports.

    Errors returning last few games, Roman Anthonyā€™s injury has psychologically impacted this team.

    And Crochet has been hit harder recently.

    Will hope morning will bring a resilient comeback tonight, if not, they will need a win and soon to not let this spiral into a long losing streak.

    I am searching for the Bob Lobel panic meter.

    1. We had 0.71. Half came in about 4 minutes but it filled some bodies of water. The rest was lovely rain

  97. Tropical disturbance downgraded further – again NO SURPRISE.

    Now a 0% chance of development through 7 days. See ya!

  98. State of Emergency for Hawaii for Hurricane Kiko …..

    … except …

    Kiko is going to miss them to the north, as a weakening tropical storm.

    Impact: Rough surf on east-facing and north-facing shores.

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