Thursday October 9 2025 Forecast (6:31AM)

101 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)

A cold front moved across our region yesterday delivering a light to moderate rainfall and a much cooler air mass. A large area of high pressure to our west will build toward the region today, but the pressure gradient between it and a storm to our northeast will create a gusty breeze to emphasize the already below normal temperatures, and big contrast from the well above normal temperatures recently experienced. Tonight, high pressure builds right over the region, providing perfect radiational cooling conditions, and resulting in a widespread frost and scattered freeze, with the exception of the immediate coast where ocean water keeps it slightly warmer, and urban centers due to the “heat island effect”. This high pressure area will stay parked over the region Friday – a cool but tranquil day with lots of sunshine. It will then drift offshore Saturday with fair weather continuing, and a milder afternoon after a chilly start. After this, a big change is coming as a storm system forms down the coast and drifts up the coast toward New England. While the low center never actually gets this far north due to atmospheric blocking that will stop it in its tracks before sending it back to the south, it will come up against a high pressure area to the north, increasing the wind from the east and northeast, and its rain shield does look like it will make its way far enough north to give the region some needed moisture later Sunday through Monday. Currently, it remains to be seen just how much rain occurs. More certain are potential coastal flooding issues at the times of high tide late weekend and Monday. Some additional details will be provided in upcoming posts.

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 27-34 inland, 35-42 coast. Wind N under 10 MPH then calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind calm then SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds arrive south to north. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds thicken. Rain arrives south to north afternoon / evening. Highs 55-62. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast / Cape Cod.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Overcast. Rain and drizzle with areas of fog. Temperature fall to 50-57 then steady. Wind NE to E 15-25 MPH, strongest coastal areas including some higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)

Storm system pulls away gradually October 14 with slow improvement expected, but may begin wet, windy and chilly. Remainder of the period finds our region on the western side of upper level low pressure and it’s a cool, mostly dry pattern but can’t rule out a few pop up showers either. This is a generalized outlook with fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)

Shift to a more zonal (west to east) flow pattern with some up and down temperatures and a couple quick rain shower opportunities.

101 thoughts on “Thursday October 9 2025 Forecast (6:31AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Just pass full moon looks great this morning towards the lower, western horizon.

    Its too cold 🙂 🙂 🙂

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    46 here this morning.

    Ocean temp: 62 (Boston bouy)

    Wordle: 6

    1. I got it in 4, because by guess 2 I had 2 letters in the correct spot and 1 other letter also.

          1. Indeed. I was looking up words that have not been used.
            I was using my phone, so not sure I really got any, BUT I really want to get a word in ONE GUESS!!!!! That is why I want to try new words as guess 1.

  4. Thank you TK.

    As for the high to the north this weekend, it looks like a stubborn animal that isn’t going anywhere. I’m wondering if we will see much rain at least where I am. Maybe RI, CT, Cape and Islands have a better shot.

  6. Has anyone checked out the new Beta Pivotal Weather.
    I just took a look at it and my initial impression is that it SUCKS BIG TIME!!!! Perhaps it was just the initial shock, I don’t know.
    I’ll try again, but I had to switch back as I simply could not use the site! It was PAINFUL.

    Curious to see what others think.

        1. I almost threw my phone against the wall until I figured out how to get the into the old way.

          Just another example, in my opinion, of offering a new way, because we need constant change, and the new way is not as good or far worse, than the previous way.

          This happens in education too. Changing out of something that works so well ! Drives me crazy.

  7. I’d post a photo but wifi at school isn’t allowing me to do so

    On CNN, they have a headline about a strong coastal storm to affect the east coast this weekend.

    Above that headline is a photo of ….. tropical storm Jerry. Oops

    And re: Jerry, it might just be a strong tropical wave right now based on recon data.

  8. Turned the heat on this morning as wife was cold , figured it would probably be needed tonight so I said what the heck why not .

  10. So far on the 12z runs, HRRR and NAM, when you compare them to their 00z runs, that impressive 500 mb disturbance is further EAST when its dropping down through the Great Lakes.

    That certainly can have an impact on location of the coastal system and also to some extent, its strength based on interaction of the northern and southern energies.

    1. Wouldn’t it be funny IF it either track ots or stayed South of us After all of the HYPE???

      1. Yes.

        I think the breezy/windy conditions in southern New England are a lock.

        Quite high pressure to the northeast and low to the south, it will be windy.

        But the rain, that could not make it to the south coast or it could make it to the Canadian border or something in between. I believe the rain is the big unknown.

      2. We would lose some welcome beneficial rains if that were to happen. This is one time I WANT a rain event to come north to our area.

  13. 12z GFS continuing the trend against the 00z guidance of having the northern stream 500 mb disturbance a little further east as its dropping down thru the Great Lakes.

    I would think a further west track allows it to end up further southwest of us, which actually backs the flow further along the east coast and gives the rain shield a better chance of getting further north.

    Lets see how the 12z GFS evolves on the rain shield.

    1. the models, not as badly, but not good enough, aren’t staying consistent on the southern stream disturbance either.

      the 12z GFS is a little stronger on the southern stream disturbance compared to its 00z run and thus, it has, thus far, a stronger sfc low than its 00z run.

      All this has to be simulated better, hopefully in the next 24-48 hrs

  15. Well, I don’t think the 12z suite did anything to clarify the rain possibilities this weekend.

    Multi inch rain totals and very little rain amts and everything in btwn remain on the table in southern New England.

    Continue to feel confident in breezy, windy conditions in southern New England.

    Rain expectations: extremely low confidence.

  17. Thanks TK. Is this Mother Natures’s hint at things to come for this winter? The hype would be off the charts if this were January.

    1. If this was 2-3 months from now, we would be staring down the barrel of a major east coast blizzard! ❄️

      1. For now I’ll take a run of the mill rainstorm to wipe out this drought once and for all.

        1. This is not going to wipe out the drought in the Northeast. Long way to go for that.

      3. Not necessarily.

        1) The heaviest precipitation can still stay to the south.
        2) Cold air holds less moisture than “less-cold” air.

  18. Looks like 55 is going to do it here.
    Dew point is 28, so I am wondering HOW low it will go tonight.
    I suspect 30s for sure. perhaps a frost or even a freeze. Will be watching.

  19. JpDave & Tom … Agree with you both 100% on the Beta Pivotal. It’s absolutely terrible, virtually unusable, in comparison to the working version. Leave it alone, I say. If they really want to make it better, trend a little more toward Tropical Tidbits or COD model pages.

  20. Temps are under-performing a bit today. Cooler than forecast by a few degrees.

    This has been the tendency more often than not since mid summer – to be a little cooler than predicted vs. warmer. I need to get rid of my apparent warm bias. 😉

    1. I made a run to the store around NOON. It was BEAUTIFUL out.
      Wonderfully comfortable temperature! I had a tee shirt and a long sleeve jersey and It was perfect. No need for a jacket or sweatshirt. I guess I really don’t like the heat. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  21. I was wrong, we crept up to 56. I can’t see it getting any higher at this hour.

    I just got an alert for Forst Advisory for Suffolk County, which is the city of Boston, Plus Chelsea, Winthrop and Revere.

    We shall see. Should be no trouble reaching mid-30s. How much lower remains to be seen.

  22. TK, we had a high of 59 so right in your range. Unless I read wrong as I’ve been known to do that

    1. Actually, you didn’t. I did. 🙂 I literally read my own post incorrectly – the one I made just a few hours before. 😉

      I guess the range was generally correct. Maybe fewer lower 60s than I thought though. Otherwise it’s not bad. 🙂

  23. Gonna need a couple layers and a hooded sweatshirt for the Woburn football game in an hour! Crispy chilly breeze eve!

  24. BTW in case anyone is wondering, there will be no beneficial rain at all for the worst drought areas in New England (NNE) from the upcoming storm system.

  25. It is getting very nippy here. Already down to 43 in Coventry. It’s going to be a hard freeze tonight for sure. Going out shortly to cover the mums I just planted last week.

    1. Correction it is down to 39 already on my ambient weather station! The 43 was on my car thermometer.

  26. B’s 1-1 vs Blackhawks end of the 1st.

    In the 1st game and this one, there have been some puck management issues. Plays are happening randomly as opposed to holding on to pucks, passing, and setting up plays. Some disorganization. On a positive note, there is enthusiasm!

    1. And they have improved their team speed, which was a must.

      I know McAvoy, Pasta and Swayman. Looks like a lot of new players.

      They seem more fun to watch already, compared to most of last season.

  30. What a chilly game here at Woburn, but the 42-8 win helped warm us up a bit!

    I’ll be in Marshfield tomorrow for a 7 p.m. game and it won’t be quite as chilly as this evening was, but still “cool”. 🙂

    1. Great !!

      I’ve been summoned by the wife to be at the campground by very early evening, so I am sorry TK, I won’t be able to say hello.

      Enjoy the game !! I know my daughter is up there to help film for MHS TV.

      1. No worries! Good luck! Bummer you can’t be there! Is your daughter usually in the booth or on field?

    2. Someone you know playing in Marshfield?? 🙂

      I predict a Marshfield win but nothing better than Friday Night Lights!

      1. Haha yup! But we’ll see how the game goes. 🙂 Hoping to see a good match-up either way. 🙂

    3. I’ll be in Marshfield, too… but at 7AM for breakfast at a place called Buppa’s lol

  32. Thank you TK!

    Been super busy as we are set to complete our next bank acquisition this weekend. Been trying to read as I can but am missing my social life!

      1. Rate of temp drop is now a bit slower here. 36F. I just put the cover back on the grill and there was a thin layer of ice crystals on it.

  34. 36 here. 33 at the East Taunton airport.

    Not the night for Philly sports phans:

    The Dodgers end the Phillies’ season, 2-1, in 11 innings.
    Panthers 2, Flyers 1
    And, after three quarters, the New York football Giants 27, the Eagles 17.

    ‘Night, y’all! 🙂

      2. Hanging at 33 When I was on deck sky and clouds were crystal clear. Now a matter or how far Radiational cooling can drop us

    1. Interesting how the immediate coastline stays so relatively mild. I wonder if Colonial Boston was as cold as its suburbs with few buildings before the “heat island” effect took over.

      1. It’s the influence of the ocean water. That’s why the coast is often less cold than inland during autumn and winter mornings.

        Colonial Boston didn’t have a “heat island” effect, but they were still impacted by warmer ocean water, and were most often less cold than further inland on mornings like this one. The difference was likely less pronounced, but also less cared about due to the lack of population.

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