Friday October 10 2025 Forecast (7:18AM)

75 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Frost and areas of hard freeze have occurred early this morning away from coastal locations and urban centers due to a combination of dry air, clear sky, and calm wind with high pressure overhead overnight. Today will be a bright and cool day but with little wind in comparison to the gusty breeze of yesterday, as high pressure sits atop the region. The high will sink to the south and east tonight into Saturday, allowing a southwesterly air flow to warm it up a little bit by Saturday afternoon, which will also be a fair weather day. You will notice the appearance of high clouds from the south later Saturday ahead of a storm system down the coast. This storm is destined to move northward far enough to throw its rainfall into our region, along with a gusty wind by later Sunday through Monday. The storm will never make it all the way here though. In fact, the blocking pattern in place to help it exist and move up this way will also be what forces it back to the south and southeast Tuesday, when conditions will slowly improve here. Before that, though, during the late Sunday to late Monday / early Tuesday time frame, a few rounds of coastal flooding can occur at high tide times due to the moderate to strong onshore air flow with the storm. Rainfall may be moderate overall, with some pockets of heavier rainfall. This will benefit in reducing the long-term dry conditions, but will not put them to an end.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind calm then SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase south to north. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds thicken. Rain arrives south to north afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast / Cape Cod.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY / MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain and drizzle with areas of fog. Temperature fall to 48-55 then steady. Wind NE to E 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coastal areas including higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Rain/drizzle lingers under overcast in the morning. Breaking clouds and a possible leftover rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast in the morning, N to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 15-19)

The blocking pattern in place hangs on for a while and another disturbance may bring additional showers October 15 to early October 16 – details TBD. Drier weather follows as it looks now. Temperatures near to slightly below normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 20-24)

Shift to a more zonal (west to east) flow pattern with some up and down temperatures and a couple quick rain shower opportunities.

75 thoughts on “Friday October 10 2025 Forecast (7:18AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    56 here yesterday with overnight low and current temp 37.

    Ocean temp: 61. (Boston buoy)

    Wordle: 5

  2. Thanks TK !

    Had frozen dew on my car this morning and up at the school complex, I could see some patches of light frost on some of the darker ground surfaces, such as mulch, etc …….

  3. Wordle: 4

    On a sports note: even professional athletes, in an enormous moment, can succumb to the pressure.

    The bobble by the Phillies pitcher was very understandable, but it caused him to completely panic and in those milliseconds, he could not compose himself to know he had plenty of time to still throw to first base with 2 outs already.

  7. Thanks TK.

    Only made it down to 30.5F here in Coventry. Grass is frosty and there is a layer of ice on the deck table. Thought we were going into the 20’s for sure but the rate of temperature drop decreased as the night went on (after the initial temperature plunge after sunset).

    1. I’m sure you know this, but I think the leftover heat budget from summer ….. the relatively mild lakes and rivers and probably ground temps still in the 40s and 50s prevented a plunge of the temps even lower.

      1. Good point Tom.

        Got down to 37 here, which is about where I should have thought it would be. Frankly, I was expected a little lower than that.

        Still, it was the coldest of the season here.

    2. I thought youā€™d be in 20s too. I also thought the way you and here were dropping Iā€™d be a couple degrees lower. It sure was a grand sleeping night

  9. Thank you, TK

    Up to 34 from a low of 28. Our dark cars had a thick layer of white around. 5:00.

  12. If this ā€œblockingā€ pattern continues into winter, we ā€œshouldā€ have some nice snow events for a change. The upcoming rain event would easily be snow 2-3 months from now, maybe even next month for some areas well inland.

    I like our snow chances this time. šŸ™‚ ā„ļø

    Having said that, November will be the wild card. Hopefully no persistent warmups. The colder the better!

    1. It would definitely not be that much snow. Refer back to the numerous references went this would be the case.

  15. I’m not so sure it would “easily” be snow 2-3 months from now. A storm like this, with persistent east-to northeast flow off the Atlantic, which is still relatively mild compared to the land in December/early January would likely result in rain along the coast and a messy mix even well inland. If the high were over Quebec instead of New Brunswick, you’d have a better chance at snow in this pattern a few months from now.

    1. Especially this year. That ocean is still pretty warm.
      Boston Buoy is at 61 and the average would be somewhere
      around 56 or 57 or so. In that area anyway.

      If it doesn’t cool down enough before “Potential” snow events arrive, I fear the events would be RAIN anywhere near the coast.

  16. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=500wh&rh=2025101012&fh=54&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2025101012&fh=54&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    So frustrating to watch the models on this …..

    Here’s another scenario ….. a different, further east and further north placement of the northern stream disturbance, which I think is leading to more of an elongated low pressure area, at least initially.

    We’re within 60 – 72 hrs of impact up here and still getting different evolutions.

    I suppose the sensible weather isn’t as greatly differed, as the RDPS in this scenario still shows breezy and eventually wet weather arriving Sunday, but I really like looking into the actual meteorological setup and that is anything but set in stone.

  19. One timeframe the models that go out beyond the 48 hrs of the HRRR (NAM, RDPS and ICON) are focused on is Monday morning.

    All of them simulate moderate to heavy rain, breezy inland and very windy at the coast 7-8 am Monday. Good the commute will be greatly diminished with the holiday.

  21. One thing I can say is that the models “appear” to be trending WETTER and WETTER. We shall see.

    1. Agreed ….. but I also think we need to hold the viewer to a higher expectation of comprehension.

      When it comes to hype, I feel like most of the “blame” ends up on the person who created the graphic/forecast and I am of the opinion that there was not hype in the first place, but a false hype that is created by the reader or viewer who then goes onto blaming the wrong person, when its the person who got the message wrong in the first place.

      1. Great perspective, Tom. I have managed to block most sites and individual pages who like to exaggerate. As for Mets, itā€™s hard to know where their dictates are coming from so I keep that in mind

  24. Euro AI (12z) is in fairly decent agreement with the other 12z models

    Euro op run is a much drier outlier

    This could be further proof that the euro op run is no longer the king. We do need a lot fewer kings šŸ™‚

  27. TS Jerry is no longer forecast to make it to hurricane intensity. From here on, it’s only over fish anyway. NBD – see ya!

    Also, for once I am glad that NHC wasted a name. Subtropical Storm Karen existed for under 24 hours before going post-tropical over the open North Atlantic and pretty much nobody noticed, so now – WE CAN AVOID FURTHER BAD JOKES about the name. Yay!

    The underwhelming season (in terms of impact) continues. Good news!

  28. Just watching WCVB evening forecast and weekend storm away from coast looks like no big deal with maybe a half inch of rain and winds gusting to 30 mph max.

      1. Thatā€™s the forecast with primarily 30 max gusts away from the coast. The half inch of rain was another of tonightā€™s forecasts. When I say no big deal I mean relative to whatā€™s been hyped all week. I donā€™t look at those data points as a raging norā€™easter.

        Cape as usual will have more rain and wind.

    2. He was a great musician. Very distinctive style and he brought a different side to the Moody Blues sound – more a rock-based vibe to the songs he wrote, but he could also knock out a great ballad, just like Justin Hayward.

      A favorite Lodge-penned tune from their catalog is “Sitting At The Wheel” from 1983.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYVhvywUW8I

  30. Storm Sunday-Monday will be a bust. It is a lock because we already canceled plans for Sunday. šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚

    1. Ha!!!! I drive granddaughter to work Monday afternoons so that works for meā€¦.hoping I donā€™t counter your cancellation..,,

      But isnā€™t most of Sunday going to be ok?

      1. I’ve always thought most of Sunday will be OK. That continues to be my expectation. šŸ™‚

  31. Re: Hype.

    I haven’t really seen Boston media hype the upcoming potential at all. The ones I have seen have talked about the potentials in a realistic way with the correct caveats in place based on the in-place uncertainty as we were still a bit of a time-distance from occurrence. If you’re seeing hype, it’s probably coming from online sources, and more likely sources that shouldn’t be doing “forecasting”.

    If you see a little wording played up by the legit media, it’s always important to keep in mind a fair amount of the news is heavily directed / aka heavily scripted so it draws viewers. So, if the news director decides that the storm threat is a top story (maybe THE top story) then the direction given is most certainly not to downplay it. They are going to be instructed to make it worth being the top story. That’s the nature of the business now, unfortunately.

    1. Yes. Yes. Yes. Is it ok I gave this a standing O in my livingroomā€¦.well, more that i sat up straight in my chair but at 11:11 that is a big deal.

      For the record. 11:11 Is Macā€™s number so you got a standing O from heaven

  32. According to JR, this upcoming norā€™easter is on the low end of the scale. He stated that we have seen far worse.

    1. Shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone here at least, since I’ve kept in in that perspective since the beginning. šŸ˜‰ Although as mentioned above, other than the usual management-driven top-story kind of thing, the Boston media has done well in talking sensibly about the upcoming system and the threat it brings. “Threat” can be a misunderstood word, also. It is used often without the intention of meaning something “really bad” but is often taken that way. It should be used more like the words “chance” or “potential” in this context.

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