Saturday October 11 2025 Forecast (8:08AM)

71 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 11-15)

A stratus cloud layer developed and moved up into much of our region overnight / early this morning in response to some increasing moisture and a temperature inversion (warm above cool) at low levels. Today’s weather will be governed by high pressure which has now moved offshore to allow a milder southerly air flow, which brought in the moisture for the cloud cover – more extensive than I expected. These clouds will give way to more sun as we go through the morning to midday it will be quite a nice day overall, but even with that, a shield of high clouds will advance in from the south filtering the sun later in the day in advance of a low pressure system, much talked about this week, that will bring us a bout of rainy, windy weather later Sunday to early Tuesday. Not much has changed with the expectations for this system. The low pressure area that makes up the “storm” is actually going to consist of a broad overall circulation with several low centers within it, a first off the Carolinas which gives way to a second just east of the Delmarva and finally a third to the southeast of New England during the life cycle of the event. A tight pressure gradient between the low pressure circulation to the south and high pressure to the north will produce a solid onshore flow which can lead to minor to moderate coastal flooding near and at high tide times over several cycles from late Sunday to early Tuesday. Rainfall from the system arrives from south to north during the course of Sunday afternoon as it battles dry air at mid levels initially, before overcoming it. Rainfall continues generally unabated through Monday and then tapers off from north to south as the storm system begins to pull away on Tuesday. Any rain that occurs us beneficial for our long-term dry spell. Behind this system comes a chilly northerly air flow and we’ll still be under an upper trough so some clouds and maybe a passing rain shower can occur Wednesday, otherwise it will be a generally dry day.

TODAY: Low clouds break for sun, then increasing high clouds south to north later in the day. Highs 63-70. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase and thicken south to north. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Rain arrives south to north afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast / Cape Cod.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY / MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain and drizzle with areas of fog. Temperature fall to 48-55 then steady. Wind NE to E 15-25 MPH inland with gusts 30+ MPH and 25-35 MPH coastal areas with gusts 40+ MPH.

TUESDAY: Rain/drizzle lingers under overcast in the morning. Breaking clouds and a possible leftover rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast in the morning, N to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain shower possible. Highs 55-62. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 16-20)

Upper level low pressure can bring a few showers of rain and even some higher elevation mix if early enough in the day October 16. High pressure nudges the upper low away and brings in fair weather after that, but watching for a large low pressure system to enter the Great Lakes region around the October 18-19 weekend and this may start to send some cloudiness our way and eventually the potential for some unsettled weather. This is part of the transition from a blocking pattern to a progressive pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 21-25)

Shift to a more zonal (west to east) flow pattern with some up and down temperatures and a couple quick rain shower opportunities.

71 thoughts on “Saturday October 11 2025 Forecast (8:08AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    53 here now as temps went up overnight.

    Ocean temp: 61 (Boston bouy)

    Wordle: 5

      2. Very nice Tom and JPD

        4 for me also. Was a quick one where the word just popped into my head.. Had it by 12:03.

        1. Rain totals seem to be bouncing all over the place. What do you forecast for the metro west area? Thanks.

    2. I had fun. Watched the game and wandered around for some game photos.

      Marshfield won the game 38-14, but Silver Lake never gave up the battle, scoring their final TD with zeroes on the clock.

      1. Was so good to see you last night TK! Wish it could have been a better game, it has sure been a struggle this season!

  5. Models are pretty consistent for 2 inches plus in Eastern sections, less to the West.
    HOWEVER, the UKMET is an outlier with 5 plus inches for Eastern sections. Interesting.
    Will this be an over achiever???

    Waiting on 12z runs.

  6. Thanks TK
    From Meteorologist Steve Dimartino

    If the state of model guidance with this storm is any indication for the upcoming winter, meteorologists like me are going to have a hell of a time. Let the fun begin!

    1. Wow!! great job! All 4s today, except, of course, for me! The caboose yet again.
      🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. Very nice Sue.

      We all take turns as the caboose. It was a key part of the train. It “served as a central observation post for train crews to monitor the train’s condition, provide a safe office for the conductor’s paperwork, and act as a crucial safety device to warn following trains during unexpected stops.” ❤️

  10. 12Z NAM would have rain in here tomorrow by 11AM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025101112&fh=27&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12Z HRRR says NOT until about 3AM Monday

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025101112&fh=43&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Me thinks the HRRR is out to lunch.

    Perhaps the NAM is a bit fast for onset, but I would presume it will be raining in the Boston Area by 5 or 6PM at least, if not earlier. We shall see.

  12. I feel like the southern stream system is stronger than thought 24-48 hrs and I think that is shown in most models being back down around 995-997 mb, compared to the 1,000-1,003 mb of yesterday.

    The northern stream energy now, at least initially stays more separate for a while and that’s why you have this low down by the Carolinas but a piece is yanked north by the north stream
    and causes an elongated area of low pressure.

    It certainly is different than what was simulated 72-96 hrs ago

    That met above who said fun times ahead with winter storms … yes and then some.

    PS it’s beautiful out with the sun arriving.

      1. Thanks, may you have 100 inches of snow where are you and a lot of cold rain in marshfield. 🙂

        I love mid and late June.

  13. Re: Steve Dimartino’s post about the models.

    I agree and I also disagree with him.

    I totally get where he’s coming from, but my approach to using model guidance is quite old school, back from when “less was more” and I’ve adapted that thinking to now. Yes, I “look” at most of it. But going into a situation there’s already quite a bit known about biases and certain models that perform worse or better given the range of time and the type of pattern. Before I even start, a lot of unnecessary work is already eliminated. In other words, I know what to pay more attention to, and what to ignore, but not ignore it to the point that I miss something. It’s were the science and the art form of the profession mix. And I am not here to toot my own horn about being good at it. I’m practiced at it, but always practicing. Any good meteorologist will tell you they don’t already know it all, because it’s a continuous learning process.

    Anyway, I’m not really thinking that because the guidance wavered around with this system that it means much of anything for the winter model forecasting overall. One situation at a time. Learn from each. Take it to what comes after. This is how I always do it… 🙂

  14. Thanks TK for your explanation of the “stratus” cloud layer in your discussion. I thought I was going to wake up to full sunshine, but when I saw the cloud deck, I was starting to wonder if the clouds were from the approaching storm already. Good to see full sunshine now! 🙂

    1. Yesterday (late afternoon) I saw some stratocumulus clouds in linear form drifting into the South Coast, which is not unusual when you flip the wind to the S or SW at the departure of a cool air mass and introduce some low level moisture. Even a subtle amount will create those clouds. And I though “hmm, might that grow more extensive than I expect?” but didn’t think much of it beyond that. Well, it did, to the point of broken to overcast across a large percentage of southeastern New England. After the sun got high enough, it mixed the air enough that the inversion layer was mostly wiped out and those close dissipated. But there still exists some form of that layer and as we see the sun heating the ground, it’s sending what little moisture is available skyward and I’ve noticed some decent stratocumulus patches diurnally reforming. I can see one area out my window to the northwest now, in fact. I don’t think this will overtake the sky this midday and afternoon, but it will be noticeable for a while, then decrease again, just in time for the high cloud shield to start moving in from the south ahead of the storm system.

      1. P.S. one of my weakest forecasting skills is estimating inversion-triggered cloud cover. I’ve been burned so many times both ways. Forecast little or none, get an overcast. Forecast a cloudy day, get a partly to mostly sunny one. UGH. hahaha

  15. Thanks TK.

    It’s cloudy and drizzly here in Newark NJ this morning (we came down here last night for the Jason Aldean concert). There is already an onshore flow here off the ocean from the southeast.

    1. My son is down there (not far from Atlantic City) celebrating his gf’s birthday with her and her family. He’s set to drive back up this way on Monday – looks like a wet & windy drive back.

    1. It’s broad-scaling what might be a pretty good convergence zone. I don’t think amounts that great would be that widespread, however.

  17. 12Z UKMET has backed off considerably from the 0Z run, but still delivers 2 3/4 inches of rain for Boston. Still plenty!

    1. We did our lawn in the spring. Not sure if there is a reason not to do it now. This is a good time to put down lime.

      1. Thank you. Our lawn is a mess. Sadly. Everything I see says same that you said. And we have a water ban so it can’t be watered in now

  21. Just arrived in Amsterdam NY to pick up the dog who my mother has been watching this past week for us. Much nicer weather up here with sunny skies and temps in the upper 60s. Didn’t fully get out of the cloud shield until just south of Albany. It was a pretty miserable morning in SE NY and northern NJ.

      1. Not that great actually. Going through the Catskills just a lot of muted colors and trees turning to golden/brown. I am guessing a result of the very dry weather.

  22. We just got back from Storrs, CT. It was much cloudier there and we hit a little drizzle on the way home.

    The funny thing was that somewhere on I-84 we got a message in Google Maps saying that a flooded road was reported ahead! 🙂

    1. Cool. A game?? It’s been cloudy here for a while. No drizzle. Hoping to get out with a fire for a bit

  23. Thanks, TK.

    Diane Keaton died. She was 79. Sad.

    I can only take so many death notices and obituaries.

      1. Coincidence. And it’s usually more than or less than 3. People tend to group them into threes.

        The last few times there were reports of “3”, it was actually “4” and “5”. But the posts online would always only include 3, so they could say that, or they just were unaware. I pay attention to these things. It’s how my brain works. Heh!

  24. Seeing a pretty wide band of rain increasing over upstate New York. Looks like it is related to the storm way to south. What is causing that?

    1. False echoes. The only precipitation close to that area were a few lake-effect rain showers in eastern Lake Ontario. Upstate NY was dry.

Comments are closed.