Sunday October 12 2025 Forecast (7:02AM)

152 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)

All is on track in terms of expectation for a storm system that will impact our region over the next few days. The synoptic set-up is high pressure to our north, with an initial low pressure off the US Southeast Coast today, giving way to a newly developed low offshore to our south, which will do a cyclonic loop off the northern Mid Atlantic Coast Monday, before a third center takes over further to the east and the entire circulation begins to pinwheel out to sea, slowly, Tuesday into midweek, leaving our region on the western side of an upper level low pressure associated with the storm system through midweek. Backing up a bit, as far as the regional impact from the storm system, we’ll see a rain shield expand northward across our region today, but it will take most of the day to do so, with areas to the north staying rain-free longest. By day’s end, it will cover the region, and then it’s pretty steadily raining and drizzling into Tuesday morning from there, before it tapers off from northwest to southeast during the day Tuesday. During the peak of the system on Monday, I can’t rule out a couple of embedded heavier bands of rain that can include thunder as well. We will have a northeast to east wind at moderate to strong speeds, strongest along the coast (strongest of all over Cape Cod) and this will result in minor to moderate coastal flooding in areas prone to it near high tide times over several cycles tonight through Monday night. If there’s some good news, it’s most obviously that any rainfall we get is beneficial in battling an ongoing long-term dry spell in the region. While drought is far worse in northern New England, widespread abnormally dry conditions and areas of moderate drought exist in southern New England, and the rainfall is welcomed for helping to reduce that. You might think “why does that matter now that the growing season is ending or over?” and the answer is, the bigger our deficit remains going into and through winter, the harder it is to climb out of the dryness heading into the next growing season. Any any rain (and eventually snow) that we can get from now through the winter months will aid the cause, so long as it does not become excessive.

TODAY: Overcast thickens – rain arrives from south to north by the end of the day. Highs 56-63. Wind NE increasing to 5-15 MPH inland, 15-25 MPH coast, with higher gusts especially coast and south late-day.

TONIGHT / MONDAY / MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain and drizzle with areas of fog. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Temperature fall to 52-59 then generally steady. Wind NE to E 15-25 MPH inland with gusts 30+ MPH and 25-35 MPH coastal areas with gusts 40+ MPH.

TUESDAY: Rain/drizzle lingers under overcast in the morning. Breaking clouds and a possible leftover rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind shifting to N 15-25 MPH, strongest coastal areas with a few higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with an additional rain shower possible during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower of rain, possibly mixed with wet snow in higher elevations. Lows 36-43. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A coastal rain shower possible, favoring Cape Cod. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Large scale pattern transitions from blocking to progressive / zonal. High pressure brings in fair weather early to mid period. A low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes extends its warm front our way and may bring clouds at some point over the October 18-19 weekend which starts cool then moderates. Cold front from that low brings a rain shower threat late period followed by a turn back to cooler weather.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)

A progressive / zonal pattern expected. While timing is uncertain, one or two systems can bring brief wet weather threats while temperatures display a variable pattern of ups and downs.

152 thoughts on “Sunday October 12 2025 Forecast (7:02AM)”

  3. Thanks TK. Nice drenching here in eastern SNE depicted by NWS Blend.

    First real system since we got the dog. She’s amazing but let’s see what 1 1/2 days of bad weather does.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Temp 57 here.

    Ocean temp: 60 (Boston bouy)

    Rain is approaching the South coast.

    Wordle: 5

    1. Nice – you beat me by a long-shot. As you would say, today was a TOTAL FAILURE %@!*$%#^&#%$!*&

      Did I spell that last part correctly? 🙂

      On the third guess, I had everything correct except for the first letter. Then I guessed other first letters and didn’t get it.

      1. Wow! That is unusual today. I guess it shows it can happen to any of us. You’ll get it in 3 tomorrow!!!!

      2. Any characters will do, so you certainly did NOT spell it incorrectly. When I post that, it is different each time not unlike an Eric Clapton solo. 🙂

          1. You’re on a roll SClarke!!! All in good fun. 🙂 🙂

            Haven’t had a reason to post a solo lately, at least not in the weather department. 🙂 🙂 🙂

            In the wordle dept, yes. In the political dept, yes But I won’t post on that.
            Weather, nope! NOTHING unusual so far.

            We shall see moving forward. Watching that ocean temperature, which remains above average so far this season. NOT good for early season snows along the coastal plain.

          1. That sucks when you have 4 letters in the correct position and there are multiple possible solutions
            and you are unlucky enough that you choices are NOT the correct word!!! I HATE it when that happens, but just part of the game.

          2. I have a fb friend who has last four letters after second word with one guess to go. She always does well on Wordle. I’m hoping she gets it in six

      1. yay Tom. When I got 5 today, I thought for sure I would be the caboose, yet again. You and I are the club house leaders so far today. 🙂 🙂 that would be a first. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  6. Interesting set-up in baseball with the final 4 teams.

    In the AL, we have a matchup between the two expansion teams in 1977. Of course, no-one today would think of the Blue Jays or Mariners as expansion teams. But they were when I was a teenager. And they were both really bad in their first few years.

    Then we have the Brewers from small market Milwaukee with lots of homegrown talent going up against a juggernaut big market team with a very high payroll.

    What’s interesting is that baseball achieves a pretty good degree of parity without a salary cap.

    1. Stat of the Day: The Dodgers are paying more in luxury tax on their payroll this season than the Brewers are in payroll period.

  11. Thanks Tk . I’m sure we will be busy at work tomorrow with leaks popping up everywhere.

    1. Excellent. Tom and I are now relegated to the cheap seats as we are NO longer the club house leaders, you are! Nice going!

  13. This is not weather related, but Wordle related.

    I just wanted to say that I love how those of us who play Wordle always support each other and NO ONE puts anyone down for not getting a word on any given day. I just find that very refreshing!!!

    1. Love this comment. It is perhaps the best part of the game. And big thanks to TK for having a space for us to share.

    2. My mom is an avid player and typically does well. She failed today too. We all have good days and bad days. It is an interesting game for sure.

  16. Is it my imagination? OR has the Northward progress of the rain slowed down? Presumably due to it running into Dry Air.

  17. I am perhaps alone, but I love the feel of today…..in the wind and in the air, You can smell a storm coming.

  19. Still dry here at the northern tip to buzzards bay as we are slowly closing (packing) up.

    Got a quick radar peak, thought I might have seen a few scattered ocean effect sprinkles/showers mixed in with the main rain area?

  22. Still no Rain here, but it is DARK and ominous looking out there.
    Street looks dampish, even though nothing is happening.
    Clearly the air is moistening up. Still waiting.

      1. I’m sure it is but I’m not going up there unless there is a call , I need quiet times till 3pm lol

  26. I have a feeling that there will be considerable leaf drop during this upcoming event. I am already seeing leaves flying all over the place.

    1. I think you are right. Even now with a breeze, I was just out and leaves are falling like raindrops.

  27. Raining lightly here in the City now.

    Looks like yesterday’s NAM projection of rain start was almost spot on. Kudos to the NAM.

    1. And so it begins. How much rain will fall????
      That is the question.

      The 12Z HRRR says quite a bit

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2025101212&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      12Z NAM, not as much, but still 2+ inches

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2025101212&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      12Z RDPS about the same

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2025101212&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      12Z GFS not as much

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2025101212&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      Sit back and enjoy. Certainly will help the drought situation. End it? Nope, but help for sure.

        1. Using a different browser, I would guess that their security certificate has expired:
          “The certificate for this site is not valid.”

  33. As much as I’d have loved to see Jones reach his potential with the Pats, I sure am liking Maye.

  35. I was thinking i would see rain by 2 PM and now I’m thinking 4 PM. The rain train seems SLOOOOW!

    1. My granddaughter is willing it to take its time. Her horse does not like being in the stall all day. 😉

  36. The Patriots defense couldn’t stop my grandmother. Pathetic and they could cost them the game. They had better make some adjustments. At least they get the ball to start the 2nd half.

        1. I may be wrong. But the pocket seems to be collapsing on the faster side and he just doesn’t seem to rattle.

    1. As I posted a couple of hours ago, this is a slow roll. The word underachiever is coming to mind.

  38. NY Jets had a tremendous passing game today. They really showed the Brits how to pass the ball. And what a way to showcase the NFL on the international stage. … A net of -10 passing yards.

    In all seriousness, teams like the Jets – perennially awful – should be relegated to the Canadian Football League. I’ve always been in favor of some kind of system in which the threat of relegation hangs over the heads of incompetent teams that are perpetually bad.

    1. They are horrible! Their SB win was in 1969 and since then they have averaged “dreadful.”

      The team owners and management do not want them to win. It reminds of the Cavaliers from 2010-2014 when management was accused of tanking in order to get a high draft pick.

      In the case of Jets, it wouldn’t matter. If they got the #1 draft pick 5 years in a row, they would make a mess of it.

      1. I am embarrassed to be a lifelong Jets fan. Woody Johnson is a complete disgrace as an owner. They are the worse run sports organization on the planet and I wish the owners would vote him out.

  42. Jimmy B, I feel sorry for Jets’ fans like yourself. The ones I’ve known are loyal and love their team. They deserve better than this, year in and year out. Management/ownership just can’t get its act together. At least that’s what it looks like from the outside.

  43. Pats got the win. Hey, In Brady’s days and even in Super Bowl years, the Patriots won many games like today’s. Good teams win these games and no matter how it looked, they WON!!!

    Also, they would have been more in command if it weren’t for some HORRIFIC calls and non-calls by the refs. Not sure I have ever seen a game referred this POORLY!!!!!

    YAY!!! PAT’s WIN!!!!! 4-2 now. Not too shabby.

    Dare I say it, they could be a playoff team this year. There, I said it. 🙂

    2. We’ll see about the playoffs, but this team is better than a lot of people thought they would be. They still have a lot of learning / developing to do though.

      1. I said it here last year , the hiring of MV made this team immediately better . I am not surprised by any of this & bringing Josh back was huge . Whatever happens this season , the team is definitely much , much better . The penalties need to seriously be addressed!!!

        1. They have a ton to work on . But winning games while still learning is a huge plus . Stay healthy & continue to work hard . The players will really want to get a win next week for there coach .

  44. Well, though many may have not seen much rain today, we were ‘luck’ enough to be done by the tip of buzzards bay and trust me, it’s already been a drenching down there.

    Back in marshfield, seem to be on the northern edge of the moderate rain. My guess is Marshfield is under .25, if not .10, but south of Plymouth, has to be over .5 already.

    1. Marshfield has a really nice scoreboard, btw. 🙂 Best HS board I’ve seen in all my travels around this area.

  45. There were many pundits who put the Pats at 8-9 or 9-8 for the regular season.

    A mid-term record of 7-2 would be glory! A 6-3 record would be okay.

    11 wins, though not a guarantee, would put an NFL team in the playoffs.

    10 wins would be iffy. It might come down to securing a wild card spot.

    9 wins would be a Longshot.

  46. The rain has been steady to heavy in Padanaram Village since 11am. Wind not too bad. 1.6 in the rain gauge so far with a lot more to come

  48. BB has made it too easy for anyone to tarnish his legacy or to legitimately question if one #12 did everything for the Patriots and BB was lucky to be the head coach during that time.

    BB is off to an awful start at NC. None of the reporting is in his favor.

    And now, yet again, Mac Jones looks like a better to much better than avg quarterback who BB just regressed so much under his coaching.

    1. Agree 100%. And yes for Mac. It’ll take him a while to totally rebound and am hoping for the best.

      I admit to having believed it was Brady BB combined but you are correct that BB has made it to easy.

      Although I will never believe Brady is not one of greatest. And I know he had no obligation to support Mac, I was taught something different.

      Repeating that I think no less of Brady. Just a wish

      1. I absolutely have to add that Brady may well have reached out to Jones and keep that in mind.

  49. The rain band that is productive has widened and moved a bit north.

    I wonder if this is the low level jet coming in. The wind has picked up some here.

  51. Been getting the lightest consistent rain here in Hingham. I ran 12 miles earlier this afternoon and expected to get rained on but… didn’t really. Too bad, I like a nice rain while running. (Wordle in 3 again.)

    1. No sooner had I typed this I heard a loud gust of wind and a thud outside. Massive branch fell on the ground from a tree close to the house. Here’s hoping and praying that’s all that happens with that tree. Need to get it cut down sometime soon.

  52. I’m disgusted with AccuWeather, more than I’ve ever been.

    They have the nerve to write the following about this storm system…

    “A powerful tropical wind and rainstorm has begun its onslaught on the mid-Atlantic coast, bringing damaging winds, major flooding, and dangerous travel conditions.”

    THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TROPICAL. That is a LIE! I just wrote to them and asked them why they are lying to their followers. I’m sure they won’t answer.

    They’ve also prepared graphics depicting the track of the tropical system and the tropical weather impacts. I repeat. THIS IS NOT A TROPICAL SYSTEM! You don’t call it something it isn’t.

    I try to ignore alot of the bullcrap out there, but when something is a direct threat to the credibility of the profession, you better bet your bootstraps that I am going to call it out! I’m curious what they have to say about their reasoning on this, which regardless of their answer, is unacceptable. You can’t just make it up to be different. The system is cold core. That’s NOT a tropical cyclone.

  53. TK I am glad you both this up – I could not believe e it when I saw their weather map in a New York newspaper. Really terrible!

    1. Right? I thought it was a joke at first, and then I realized it wasn’t.

      This is a new LOW for them, pun partially intended.

      How could you feel OK posting something you know is blatantly false? The very action goes against what they created their name to represent. Every person involved in that should be completely ashamed of the action.

      1. Is there any chance it’s a non-met, in other words, a writer accuweather hires to write their blog about the weather?

        Now while not smart, I have a difficult time believing anyone at accuweather with any background couldn’t possibly write that. An maybe an editor of their website who isn’t a met.

          1. Anyone with a met background couldn’t write that with a clear conscious, could they?

            Damn autocorrect on my phone 🙂

        2. I’m not sure, Tom. I’m stumped, but I’d love to know who decided that this was OK. Even a non-met should know better in this case.

          2. I’m sure you are not surprised. But please write to them. Even organize all of us writing. I’m more Than happy to write

  56. This 00z HRRR has very high precipitable water values in eastern Mass all day tomorrow and some serious convective showers, waves of them, following this more stratified rain overnight.

    If it’s correct, 4 inch max totals here and there could be eclipsed.

        2. Not faulting you, Tom. I Have sweatshirt that says every little thing will be alright. But I had an accounting and English teacher who had some tips I will always remember. One was always be accommodating with two Cs and Ms. remember the occasional S and you are always All wrong and all right

          Sorry. As we know I like taking trips down memory lane

  58. It is refreshing to watch far fewer strikeouts. The Blue Jays don’t strike out nearly as much as the Red Sox and too many other teams.

  60. The last time the Patriots won 3 games in a row was 2022. Now I’m curious, what about 4 in a row?

    When was the last time they made the playoffs? I want to say 2019, Brady’s last year here. Not sure.

    It was also good to see Christian Gonzalez in the game. He had been “questionable” all week.

  61. Current radar covered in beautiful “green” in all of SNE. I hope NNE can get some as they need rain even moreso.

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