Monday October 13 2025 Forecast (7:15AM)

126 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 13-17)

A coastal storm brings unpleasant weather but beneficial rain to our region today into Tuesday as a broad low pressure circulation with a couple centers spins about to our south. The heaviest and most widespread rain has already fallen, in general, across most areas, but some additional moderate to bursts of heavier rain can occur today with a trend toward a more intermittent rainfall pattern heading through tonight and Tuesday before it tapers off from northwest to southeast. Coastal flooding issues near and at high tide times continue for a couple more cycles before subsiding, along with the same tendency for the wind. The larger scale pattern features blocking, and this will hold that low pressure circulation offshore to our southeast then east through midweek while an upper low slowly drifts across the Northeast. Additional showers can occur, favoring Wednesday night and part of Thursday in areas near and east of I-95. By Friday, the pattern is transitioning to a progressive one with a zonal (west to east) flow evolving. Our weather here will be fair, breezy, and cool as high pressure builds our way from the west and low pressure to the east finally starts to move further away.

TODAY: Overcast. Rain of varying intensity. Slight chance of thunder. Highs 51-58. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with gusts 30+ MPH inland and 20-30 MPH with gusts 40+ MPH coast.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Intermittent rain/drizzle. Lows 47-54. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH coast.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Intermittent rain/drizzle tapering off gradually from northwest to southeast. Highs 53-60. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with an additional rain shower possible during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. Highs 57-64. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Rain showers possible especially I-95 eastward. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A coastal rain shower possible, favoring Cape Cod. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas / Cape Cod.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 18-22)

Large scale pattern becomes zonal / progressive. A large area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes during the October 18-19 weekend sending some clouds our way at times, but the weather looks dry with moderating temperatures. Finally a frontal system from that low brings a rain shower chance October 20, followed by fair and slightly cooler weather behind it into the middle of next week as low pressure moves through eastern Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 23-27)

A progressive / zonal pattern expected. While timing is uncertain, one or two systems can bring brief wet weather threats while temperatures display a variable pattern of ups and downs.

126 thoughts on “Monday October 13 2025 Forecast (7:15AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Not impressed with the rain totals in the Boston Area.
    More to the South.
    Radar looked worse than what was actually falling.

    55 here

    Ocean temp: 59 Boston Buoy

    Wordle: 4

  5. Thanks, TK.

    Agree with JP Dave on the rain.

    We haven’t had much rain in Boston. And I don’t see much going forward besides a steady diet of light rain. It’s better than nothing.

  6. So far, all I can say about the storm here is “WOW”. That’s “WOW” backward. 🙂

    We have a total of 0.75″ rain and a peak wind gust of 6.9 mph.

    I got Wordle in four today.

  8. I mean this nicely …..

    I see we’re all warmed up for being impressed/not impressed with snowfall amts half way through an event.

    I say this with an eye to the HRRR which may not be correct ……. but even in its most recent run, continues to offer heavier individual elements later this morning all the way into the evening, that could, in any area, drop as much or more rain than has already fallen.

    1. On cue, the rain picked up in Boston. It’s not heavy, but it is moderate. Wind is NOT a factor at all thus far. In fact, we’ve had plenty of windier cloudless days this fall.

  10. Irrespective of the rain totals, the ducks and geese I spoke to earlier this morning quacked that they love it.

  11. 1.36 total so far.

    Wordle 3. I had correct answer entered for 2 then second guessed myself and changed it

    2. Excellent!! I had a valid word in 3, but alas it was not the correct word. Wordle loves to play with us!!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. Hey. I that sounds a bit like the weather. Guess wordle is an appropriate game for a weather forum

    3. So far what’s we are seeing here is what I was thinking we’d get. Winds in the teens with gist to low 30s. Oops typo on rain. 1.16

    1. Thank you, Joshua. I lost my younger brother at 43 to melanoma. I’ll be interested in reading this.

      I could not open the vaccine ones you sent a while back

  14. The work I do is evidence-based. It’s therefore nuanced. I don’t write propaganda. I hate propaganda on the right and left. Unfortunately, in today’s world nuance is generally not appreciated. Hype and partisanship are in, nuance is out. Nevertheless, I refuse to give in. Here’s a piece I posted yesterday on RFK Jr.’s claims related to autism:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2025/10/12/rfk-jr-is-doubling-down-on-multiple-unproven-links-to-autism/

    1. Really bad! The league should give a BIG Penalty on this one. First, for what Branch did and second, to give everyone else a strong signal!

    2. Credit to his head coach, he really called it out postgame.

      Apologized to the Chiefs, Andy Reid and the player on the receiving end.

  16. On the one hand, I hope we get some significant rain to help out with the drought. On the other hand, I hope not because at noon there’s a long-planned outdoor celebration for the retirement of a wonderful town librarian.

    On the other hand, it doesn’t matter what I hope! 🙂

  18. So far what we have here is pretty much what I expected. Wind in the mid teens with gusts into the low 30s. 1.22 rain (I had a typo above). I am surprised we seem to have more rain than some spots to the east of here. But there is time to go.

  19. 2 inches so far here in Hingham. Feels like more in my particular area but I need to get a rain gauge at some point. Thankful no other parts of the tree snapped off other than the massive branch last night

    1. Is there a station close to you on here. The one about a mile from here matches my gauge perfectly.

      https://www.weather.gov/wrh/hazards?&zoom=10&scroll_zoom=false&center=42.65264691734741,-71.29028320312501&boundaries=false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&tab=layers&obs=true&obs_type=weather&elements=temp,wind,gust&temp_filter=-80,130&gust_filter=0,150&rh_filter=0,100&elev_filter=-300,14000&precip_filter=0.01,30&obs_popup=false&obs_density=10&obs_provider=ALL

      1. Darn. I broke the blog with that link. TK if you take it down, I wonder if it will reset itself. So sorry.

        2. Link worked for me, however, I couldn’t get back to WHW without closing the browser window and reopening WHW.

  20. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=925wh&rh=2025101312&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Even if the HRRR’s convective elements don’t verify (although there are plenty convective showers bubbling up off the south coast waters), there are still another 18 hrs to go of a very healthy ENE low level jet off the moist ocean and many of the models paint the eastern Mass area with another 1 to maybe 2 more inches of rain from now.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2025101312&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  21. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KBOS&hours=72

    Logan in the last 4 hrs has accumulated .30 in, with the last couple hrs receiving a little more than .10 per hour, so with that 925 mb ENE jet, if they avg .1 per hr for the next 12-18 hrs, that alone will dump another 1.2-1.8 inches of rain and they are now at 1.05 inches, so that would land them btwn 2.25 to 2.85 for the event.

  23. Storm Scorecard as of noon Monday…

    Everything right on track. No surprises

    I’ve noticed across the net in the area people saying it was a lot less than told…

    Well…. here’s the reason: The storm hasn’t ended. We have another 24 hours of measurable rain potential. It’s generally advisable to let something actually occur before we assess it. We are not able to measure something that hasn’t occurred yet.

    Feel like I’ve heard this said before ….. numerous times. 😉

    1. Not being flip. Just an idea. Block folks who make those comments. They won’t change. You’ll never reach them. All they do is frustrate you.

    1. This link forces you to sign in Also. It’s what the healthcare one did. I misspoke when I said vaccine. Sorry

  26. The radar is a beautiful illustration, with something physically observable (that coastal rain band) of a long lasting, impressive low level ENE jet.

    It doesn’t crank out .5 per hour or 2 inches in 4 hrs, but when it’s persistent for 24 hrs, it can tally a lot of rainfall over a long time period.

  27. Maybe time in the next 24-36 hrs to seek out any sierra mt and maybe even southern CA mountain cams people may know of.

    First high elevation snowstorm in the cards.

  28. 3.8 once’s of rain in my gauge with a heavier band coming in off ocean – is this the sign it’s becoming tropical? LOL!!

    1. I hope Marco sturm is introducing his players to Anthony Cirelli and Jake Guentzek (sp?) during the 1st intermission.

  31. That very thick, heavy mist, thick light rain band has moved west of eastern Marshfield and it’s barely drizzling now.

  32. If we can get these northeasters in the heart of winter, this eastern Mass band this morning is a classic and what ends up leaving areas outside of it with 5-10 inches of snow, while eastern areas, slightly away from the coast end up with 15-20 inches after hrs of sitting under this band from a low level NE jet.

    It’s been a few seasons but it’s nice to see it play out today, obviously in a much milder environment.

  33. Walked the shore at 6:45 AM and no rain and plenty of wind. Now it’s constant light rain and less wind.

  36. Thanks, TK!

    We’ve had steady rain and wind here in Taunton. I wish I could tell y’all of the rain total, but there was dreck stuck in the gauge and it recorded a very low total.

    There was a tragic plane crash in Dartmouth that killed two around 8 am this morning. The plane has just left New Bedford Airport and crashed minutes later on the median of Route 195. There will be an investigation, but I cannot help but think that the crash was weather-related.

    I have been following another DANA, a Spanish acronym that translates as “isolated depression at high levels” in English. This storm was named DANA Alice that caused intense flooding in the region south of Barcelona. I have friends who live in Tarragona. They are okay and said that the floods occurred south of them.

  40. Vicki, I’m sorry about you not being able to access Forbes articles. I didn’t know that you had to sign in. Of course, I have no control over the website.

    It’s been less and less accessible to readers over the years. What started out in 2017 with open access as a fruitful way to disseminate my work to a much wider audience than peer-reviewed articles, has become increasingly restricted to paid subscribers. Forbes gets practically all the money, including the ad revenue. None of the latter goes to writers or contributors.

    It’s hardly worth it to me anymore, given the exceptionally meager pay ($50 for an article; each one takes me about 8 hours to research and write; it used to be slightly better pay).

    The only thing Forbes sometimes does is provide exposure which then can lead to research projects. But this is also dwindling. There’s very little interest in independent research that’s not tied to profits or an industry. The over-commercialization of society is a sad state of affairs.

    2. It ws my fault. URLs should break on WP but oddly some do not so it throws off the alignment. It’s fine in my iPad

    1. HAHA “until further notice” … remember when you had to tune into local tv or radio to get an actual forecast and not rely on this dependable technology for detail like that? 😉

  50. Two synoptic convergence bands are set up (SE to NW) to the south of Boston, and another frictional convergence zone is now working along the MA South Shore. These will be responsible for the 3 to 4+ inch rainfall amounts from the event that many people dismissed as a non-event. 🙂

    Rainfall: Verifying.
    Wind: Verifying.
    Coastal flooding (minor to moderate): Verifying.

    Not sure how this constitutes something other than what was predicted. 😉

    1. 4.5 inches in hingham and counting. And we were in that jackpot zone that got 8 inches in just a few hours a couple months ago.

  52. Looks like a nice solid warm-up Sunday for a day, when Boston may break 70 for a high temp. 🙂

    Weekend looks perfect for the H.O.T.C. 🙂

    I think Boston will have a high of 71 on Sunday, which will not even be in the same galaxy as the record high of 84 for that day. In fact, that temperature won’t even threaten the top ten warmest high temps for October 19… 😉

    1 84 10/19/1945
    2 81 10/19/2016
    3 79 10/19/1963
    – 79 10/19/1910
    5 78 10/19/1950
    – 78 10/19/1947
    – 78 10/19/1928
    8 76 10/19/1965
    9 75 10/19/1905
    – 75 10/19/1902

    Wow, there were sure a lot of warm October 19’s in the first half of the 20th century!

  54. TS Lorenzo has formed in the open Atlantic, will not reach hurricane intensity, nor any land areas. For the fish only!

  55. The Toronto Blue Jays are getting trounced in Game 2 of the ALCS by the Seattle Mariners.

  56. For you folks on the South Shore and South Coast, multiply your rain totals by 10 and FAST FORWARD 2-3 months. ❄️

    10:1

    1. I know what your getting at, except a colder atmosphere can’t hold and therefore deliver this much moisture.

    2. That’s not how it works. A colder atmosphere holds less moisture. Also, this atmospheric set-up would probably be producing a mix/rain event down there in mid winter..

  57. All day, we consistently rec’d .06 to .10 every hour.

    Not in the past hour. Dark greens and even yellows directly overhead and it was a thick heavy rain.

    The next ob may be for btwn .25 and .5 just for the last hour alone.

  59. Did someone on the blog report Hingham nearing 5” about an hr or 2 ago?

    Because this band over at least eastern Marshfield is ferocious and it looks like it’s headed towards Hingham.

    If so, watch out for what total they might end up at.

    1. This is one of the best examples of frictional convergence we’ve had in a while!

  61. I really want us to stop getting slaughtered. We got about 0.3 the past fifteen minutes. This is bringing us up to 5.15in or more since the start and I bet this next 15 minute block measurement puts us firmly at 5.40 here in Hingham. A reminder that I mentioned earlier we were the town alongside weymouth that got the most water dumped on us by far two months ago. I really hope this means we’ll be the dry hole for winter to balance things out.

    1. I think this 5+ inch event was much more helpful against dry conditions because it had a much longer duration during which, many hours featured rain that could saturate nicely into the ground.

      Thinking back, if I recall correctly, that 8 inch event in August was accomplished in 6 hrs with torrential rain rates, a majority of which probably just ran off the ground before it could soak in well.

      1. You recall correctly. It seemed to do wonders for the garden. I need to get the roof redone next year so I need us to stop being in the running for precip records for the state. lol. The station near me didn’t record as high a number for the past fifteen minutes as I know we got but I see how narrow the band is, the station recording it might be a few miles away from me and not getting as much as I feel we’ve gotten.

  62. Northern New England though is in the worst shape for dryness/drought and the rain shield just didn’t get the far north.

    I think I saw concord NH at .18 for the event.

  63. I bet the next Drought Monitor map will be nice and clear for SNE. If I’m not mistaken, most areas around here have only been “abnormally dry”.

    1. Probably not nice and clear. There are 2 issues: 1) It takes several events to erase a drought. 2) There is a lag effect when it rains. It provides immediate H2O to the topsoil but it can take weeks, months, and even years to relieve the underlying deeper soil.

      Interestingly when it comes to reservoirs, some water comes off the watershed in minutes after a rain storm, but hydrology scientists have estimated that some water can take hundreds of years to travel through underground aquifers.

  64. The Buffalo Bills lost to Atlanta so now the Patriots are “officially” in first place in the AFC East. 🙂

  65. Today will be the third morning in a row with no sunrise. Hopefully there will be a sunset before this day ends.

    I am in no way complaining, we badly needed the rain.

    1. There’s still a sunrise. We just can’t see the sun. 😉

      And yes, we need this. Take it while we can get it, because the long-term pattern still looks drier over wetter.

Comments are closed.