Tuesday October 14 2025 Forecast (7:10am)

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DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 14-18)

A coastal / ocean storm delivered some decent and borderline excessive rainfall amounts to some areas yesterday and last night, with amounts maxing out in the 4 to nearly 8 inch range, with the highest amounts fairly localized due to persistent banding of heavy rainfall due to quasi-stationary convergence zones. The short range model guidance handled this well, but usually will under-forecast the absolute maximum amounts – only by a little in this case. Today, as expected, that broad low pressure area will begin to pull away from the region, driven by the same blocking pattern that allowed it to lift northward into our region initially. The last of the meaningful rainfall occurs from Boston to Cape Cod through midday, including a few more thunderstorms for Cape Cod this morning. Elsewhere, just some lighter showers and drizzle will be around, with a drying trend from north to south as we approach midday. Breaks in the clouds may work into areas especially west and north of Boston during this afternoon, and the sun can make an appearance in some of these areas before it sets. Watch for one more shower potential northwest to southeast early this evening with the passage of a trough. Behind that, some more clearing will take place with a weak ridge of high pressure moving in. The gusty winds that we had will be long gone, and the nearly calm overnight will result in a quick cool-down and patches of radiation fog. Wednesday’s weather will feature a fair amount of cloudiness of the high to middle variety with an upper disturbance moving through from northwest to southeast. The wind will pick up again, and with this wind blowing over Cape Cod Bay it can create some additional lower clouds for Cape Cod during the day. Currently, my thought process is that we will get through the daylight without any rainfall, despite the disturbance. As we head into Thursday and Friday, we still find ourselves with a gusty breeze as the offshore storm still spins around out there, maybe even making a temporary move back toward the west, enough to keep the wind going. Upper level low pressure crosses overhead during this time as well. Variable amounts of cloudiness can be expected Thursday with drier air allowing for more sun on Friday. While I feel it’s a low probability, I can’t rule out a passing shower in the coastal plain sometime Thursday. Temperatures will be running a little below normal for this time of year through Friday, but will rebound to near to above normal with fair weather Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds into our region. While abundant sun is expected Saturday, we may see some patches of high clouds moving across the sky well in advance of a low pressure area that will be heading through the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with areas of drizzle and showers – the most numerous showers Boston southward with a chance of thunderstorms Cape Cod. Breaking clouds during this afternoon, especially north and west of Boston with a few intervals of sun are possible. Highs 53-60. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH Cape Cod including a few higher gusts through midday, gradually diminishing later and shifting more NW.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with an additional rain shower possible during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Fog patches likely. Lows 43-50. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. Highs 57-64. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Rain showers possible especially I-95 eastward. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A coastal rain shower possible, favoring Cape Cod. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas / Cape Cod.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 19-23)

West-to-east flow pattern in the larger scale. High pressure ridge over our area brings fair weather and above normal temperatures to finish the weekend on October 19 though some clouds will be around. The aforementioned low moving into the Great Lakes pushes a frontal system across the region with rain showers for a portion of October 20. Heading into midweek we remain in a trough position with a slight cool-down and slight-chance for passing showers but with dry weather most of the time.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 24-28)

A progressive / zonal pattern expected. While timing is uncertain, one or two systems can bring brief wet weather threats while temperatures display a variable pattern of ups and downs.

69 thoughts on “Tuesday October 14 2025 Forecast (7:10am)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    3 on wordle.

    I’ve had about 3 days in a row now where my first guess gave me nothing.

    But today, my 2nd guess got me 4 letters, 2 in the correct spot and 2 in the wrong spot. We’ll take that 🙂

    1. Nice going Tom
      I was hopelessly lost. After 4 guesses, I only had 2 letters out of position, but from previous guesses I could eliminate positions for those 2.
      Finally, I pulled the correct word out of a hat. Well it just came to me.
      Love hate game for me.

    2. Good scores for all!

      Mine was 5. I made a mistake along the way and repeated a letter in the wrong position. I’m not sure if I would have done any better without that error.

      2. Me as well. I think of a word and throw it in there with no regard to the fact that it is using letters already eliminated.
        In rare cases I’ll do that purposefully out of desperation. 🙂

  4. Thanks TK!

    I’m feeling similar disappointment to missing out on a big snowstorm. In a “burst” of drizzle this morning, we added 50% to our storm total in Dover, NH. Up to 0.03 inches! We really could have used this soaking in central and NNE. Let’s hope we get something meaningful before the ground freezes.

      1. This Thursday we can get maps with side-by-side comparisons for last week versus this week.

  7. So far fingers crossed that there will be no tropical threats till next summer. Sandy was not truly tropical when the storm struck New Jersey.

  9. The outer Cape is having quite a rain event this morning. I see an ob north of Wellfleet that has received almost 3 inches in the past 4 hrs

  10. Is my memory all messed up or didn’t SAK post about 2 weeks ago that the Euro was showing a drought buster rain event
    in the period we just experienced??????

    1. I believe he did. However, it takes a lot to bust a drought. One rain event doesn’t usually do it.

      1. I don’t think he really mean a drought buster, just that it would be a significant rain event. I knew what he meant. 🙂

  11. Thanks TK! We were at 5.03 inches at 7am with rain showers still falling. Impressive persistence of rain. Also saw Accuweather map in NY Post and it listed on the map – tropical showers! SMH!

  12. Thanks, TK!

    Thanks for the detailed discussion this morning!

    2.32″ at the National Weather Service office several miles north of us.

  13. We’ve probably added another .25 since 7am this morning.

    Still very low visibility in a heavy, thick drizzle with fog.

    1. Top of the mornin’ to ya!

      In just three days, we’ve morphed into County Sligo.

      TK should post his next weather forecast in Gaelic.

  14. Speaking of crazy plays in baseball, this one (see link below) has always stuck out to me. It happened in 1985 during a nationally televised game between the Yankees and White Sox. Ricky Henderson hit a long double, but no-one scored. Both were tagged out at the plate in quick succession by Carlton Fisk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqupB5DpnU4

  17. The rain has started again in earnest in Boston.

    Now my computer tray has an umbrella with rain drops with the phrase “for the foreseeable future.”

  18. Thanks, TK.

    I had an errand in RI this morning, and the leaf color on I-95 was beautiful! It made me realize how low my expectations for the fall foliage have been this year.

  22. Sky beginning to brighten to my west.

    And speaking of brightening, when we have clear sky to the NW between now and the end of the month, Comet Lemmon is going to become more visible as it migrates from lower left of the Big Dipper higher up and further left of the Big Dipper with time. Remains to be seen just how bright / naked eye visible it will be.

    2. Nothing even close to brightening here. I’ll be grateful to see the sunrise when I get up.

    1. Well, it took place over 3 calendar days. The same low pressure circulation will still have a little influence on our weather through midweek as well.

      The entire thing was just a product of a blocking pattern – very similar to what we see in spring.

      1. Would be nice to get this past setup down here again this winter with snow , good amount of rain down here .,

        1. We’ll see what the winter holds. It’s a long season.

          We have a lot of indices leaning into areas they haven’t been for quite a while…

          1. JR stated that if this event had been snow, those rain amounts would have been cut in half. He further stated that in an “October or April” event the 10:1 ratio doesn’t apply.

            Of course I prefer to use the true 10:1 ratio and simply move the decimal point once to the right. Maybe inaccurate but more fun. 😉 ❄️

            1. Being accurate is far more important if you’re communicating information.

              SAK and I very often mention here how you cannot just convert rain amounts to snow amounts via 10:1 and say “if this had been snow”. That is virtually ALWAYS incorrect and by quite a bit. It dosen’t work, and shouldn’t be done.

              JR & Pete were correct in saying that the precipitation amounts would be less (maybe not exactly 1/2 but they were trying to make a point). Colder air holds far less moisture. Also, a good portion of the region saw a “warm rain”process which is not typical of all our storms, and it tends to lead to much larger amounts. This atmospheric set-up would not have been able to do the same thing in a much colder part of the year, so again the comparison goes out the window. They made a good adjustment, and I hope people took note of that and remember it. It’s important.

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