Thursday October 16 2025 Forecast (6:51AM)

55 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 16-20)

An ocean storm east of New England makes the westernmost progress on a cyclonic loop today, tossing some cloudiness southwestward into our region, and some rain shower activity mainly across Cape Cod this afternoon, before it pulls back to the southeast and east away from the region tonight and Friday. North-south elongated high pressure to our west helps create a gusty breeze today into Friday between itself and the offshore storm, but as the high builds eastward the wind will slacken and become light later Friday into Saturday with fair weather. The high will slide offshore by Sunday and while fair weather continues, it will become breezy but milder. We will see some patchy high and mid level clouds over the weekend from upstream low pressure, but that will still be far enough away to not threaten any weekend wet weather. That will hold off until early Monday when a potent low pressure area will wheel into the Great Lakes and send a frontal system across our region.

TODAY: Sunny start then clouds move into NH Seacoast and eastern MA midday into afternoon with rain showers possible mainly Cape Cod. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas / Cape Cod.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy, then clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain probable before daybreak. Lows 51-58. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain likely in the morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of a shower in the afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 21-25)

A broad trough of low pressure and a couple surface lows / frontal systems keep our weather on the unsettled side through the middle of next week with a couple rounds of wet weather quite likely. May dry out at the end of the period but timing is uncertain on that. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 26-30)

Overall outlook is drier but still a quick unsettled period of two in a pattern that brings disturbances west to east across the region. Temperatures variable but averaging close to normal for the period.

55 thoughts on “Thursday October 16 2025 Forecast (6:51AM)”

  1. Remember that outrageous set-up via the GFS for late October several runs ago?

    As I was saying… 😉

    2. Nice job everyone. I had the last four letters after 3 guesses but couldn’t get the first letter. I still had three possibles after four. So I used a friends idea and created a word with all three letters. That’s a long way of saying I got it in 6 but would have failed if I hadn’t tried that approach

  5. Vicki mentioned towards the end of yesterday’s blog what happened up in western AK

    One of the coastal towns devastated was Kipnuk.

    In addition to the storm strength itself, the astronomical tide in Kipnuk last weekend was extreme.

    To give perspective, its highest tide in a couple days is forecast to be measured at 6.8 ft

    Last weekend, when the storm happened, its morning high tides were 9.8 ft.

    So, if the storm itself had a 2-3 ft storm surge, the astronomical tide itself added another 3 ft. There is never a good time for a major coastal storm, but this one hit at the absolute worst time for astronomical tides.

    1. Thanks Longshot. Not surprising that SE MA is now in the clear. I had hoped that the Boston area would be clear as well. Oh well, maybe next map. We now appear to be getting into a somewhat “wetter” pattern into the heart of the fall season. Much of the summer into early fall was bone dry.

    1. Nothing really in the pattern that would pick something up that far down and whisk it this far north, and even if it did, it’d just be a post-tropical low, or absorbed by a trough and mid latitude system more than likely by then.

      Getting a full tropical entity up this far from down that far is a hard sell at this point in the season. It’s not beyond the realm of possibility, but very unlikely.

      October 13 1990 we did get 2 tropical-going-post-tropical lows to come up the coast on the same day. Lili / Marco. The former produced torrential rainfall during the day. The latter produced nasty thunderstorms at night in which my house got struck by lightning. The same CB antenna that got struck would be hit again (and this time destroyed) on March 29 2020.

        1. There were a ton of close strikes before the one that hit right outside the house (the main bolt was on the electric wires). We determined that a side branch connected with the antenna. The power was out for 2 days. A couple outlets were blackened, but after being inspected, they were determined to be OK and still work to this day.

      2. Indeed !

        The euro scenario would be a more worrisome scenario, because even if it never got to the US, it’s pretty tough to avoid some landmass from where it would be developing.

      3. We’re getting into the time of year when it becomes more and more rare for a tropical system to have any impact here. In 174 years of records, only 3 tropical systems have had any impact on New England after October 20.

        11/3/1861 – A weakening tropical storm crossed extreme eastern LI, then went up across RI, E MA, and SE NH. (It originally made landfall in SW FL as a weak hurricane, then a 2nd landfall in E NC).

        10/26/1872 – A minimal tropical storm crossed western LI, then moved along the South Coast. I(t originally made landfall in W FL as a weak hurricane, then 2nd landfall in S NC)

        10/29/1963 – Category 2 Hurricane Ginny passed a few hundred miles east of Cape Cod, but produced wind gusts up to 65 mph and heavy rain across the Cape and Islands before making landfall in Nova Scotia.

        Addendum – there are 2 other systems that were technically extratropical when they had their greatest impact here, but I will include them anyways:

        10/31/1991 – “The Perfect Storm” (no other details should be needed for this crowd)

        10/29/2012 – Sandy (Again, no details should be needed)

        1. For the record, I never suggested that a hurricane would result from that system. Clearly a pretty powerful extra tropical system wouldn’t be out of the question “should” it even materialize and then get up here.

          I merely suggested that it might be something to watch. ie see what develops, IF anything. 🙂

          And yes, not details need be provided for the last 2 on the list. 🙂

    2. Impressive. There’s been some really cold weather in the S HEM the last few years.

      1. Which doesn’t do us snow lovers any good here in the N HEM. 😉

        At least the emperor penguins will do ok. They need lots of cold to keep their species intact.

        I so loved that movie March of the Penguins. ❄️ 🙂

  18. Yearly dr examination the books. I absolutely adore my new pcp. Flu shot done. He says no Covid yet for me. I will get Rsv this year

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