Sunday October 26 2025 Forecast (7:28AM)

87 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 26-30)

High pressure drifts eastward from Quebec to Atlantic Canada through Monday then sits well to our northeast into the middle of the week. This will shift our surface flow from northerly today to northeasterly early to mid week. Meanwhile, upper level low pressure over the region today and Monday continues to cause areas of clouds, most of which are benign but a few of which can produce pop-up showers with the aid of diurnal heating on Monday. During this time, a larger scale blocking pattern sets up low pressure to our south, and an initial storm system is set to travel out to sea to our south later Tuesday through Wednesday, but be close enough to slightly increase our northeasterly air flow between itself and the high pressure area in Atlantic Canada. While the storm’s precipitation will stay well south, the marine flow will likely deliver our area a lot of stratus cloud cover and perhaps some drizzle at times later Tuesday and Wednesday. If enough dry air is able to work into that northeasterly flow from eastern Canada, the effects of the low level moisture (stratus / drizzle) would be reduced. As the initial storm to the south slips out to sea, a second one will ignite when northern jet stream energy joins it later Wednesday and Thursday, and the resultant low pressure area, driven by a broad upper trough, has a much better opportunity to move northward into our region, delivering widespread rain by later Thursday, based on current expected timing. Well to the south, we now watch rapidly-intensifying Hurricane Melissa set to bring devastating impacts to Jamaica and major impacts to Haiti, the Dominican Republic, eastern Cuba, and eastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos over the next few days, before it is pulled into the open western Atlantic and never becomes a factor in the weather on the US East Coast.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a shower mainly mid to late afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Coastal drizzle possible late. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle possible. Lows 41-48. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Possible drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain develops south to north. Highs 50-57. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Current expectations are for low pressure to take a track just west of our region early on October 31 with a wet start to the day then drying out as the wind shifts around to west as the system lifts to the north. This would salvage the weather for trick-or-treat that evening if the timing is quick enough with breezy, dry, and not-too-chilly conditions. More on this as we head through the week. Early days of November are seasonably cool with mostly fair weather but an unsettled interlude potential about November 2.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

Low pressure may bring a period of wet weather again to start this period followed by mainly dry conditions. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

87 thoughts on “Sunday October 26 2025 Forecast (7:28AM)”

  2. Hurricane Melissa impact outline based on current NHC forecast track (which I agree with)…

    Jamaica: Devastating impact ahead of and right of the storm center’s path for coastal storm surge, flooding rain, and damaging wind – this will be the most complete area of devastation from that combination. Major impact left of (west of) the storm’s path more from flooding rain, a little less from wind but still major, and still significant but less storm surge on the northern coast.

    Haiti / D.R.: Flooding rain is biggest impact, wind less of an impact being outside the storm core, but some storm surge issues can still occur in southern Haiti.

    Cuba: The eastern 1/4 of the island nation stands to see the greatest impact, again worst combo of all the factors east of the track, slightly lesser to the west. Impact drops off rapidly heading westward from there.

    Eastern Bahamas / Turks & Caicos: The E.B. Islands see rain and wind but should not be too bad. T&C more of a hard hit especially near and east of the storm’s center. By then the storm will be considerably weaker than it was so that will limit the damage somewhat.

        1. Wow!!! Great job both of you!
          About to rack my brain on it now. Was up rather late last night. Watch it be another 6 for me. Starting g words not doing the job for me. Here’s hoping.

  4. Thanks TK. I realize it is early but my wife is flying out of Logan Friday morning. Do you see problems?

    1. May be some delays as we should not be completely out of that storm’s impact yet.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK

    41 again here early this morni g.

    Ocean temp: 56. (Boston Bouy)

    Wordle: 6. Hopelessly lost again. Pathetic. AFTER 2 guesses, I had only 1 letter out of position.

    Go Pats!!!!

    The CLeveland defense will be tougher than recent opponents, but I think the Pats should still prevail.

    1. Great wordles for all. 3 and 4 wow. I thought it was a difficult word. I’m happy to join you as second caboose, JPD. But we got it.

      5 for me. Had one letter after first two words so expected a fail.

      https://ibb.co/35SQSkh3

  13. We have a steady state hurricane the last many hrs. Recon shows consistent pressure in the low 950s mbs and satellite looks consistent.

    Now the question becomes is the environment conducive to another intensification/does an eyewall replacement cycle occur to make the hurricane larger but maintain the current pressure values?

  14. At its current strength, Jamaica would receive quite a hit.

    I am not downplaying anything ……

    Will a low 950 mb ish system make landfall or will there be more strengthening?

    Something another 25 mb deeper would be exponentially stronger, so let’s hope this steady state strong system is its floor.

  15. Thanks, TK!

    Sue, you and your family in Jamaica have been in my prayers.
    I have a former student, who I still work with, has family in Haiti. Let’s hope for the best for all concerned.

    Many recommend shows and books here a lot. I HIGHLY recommend the short documentary series, “Believers”, that will air tonight on ESPN at 8:30 pm. It is about the Red Sox’ 86-year old “curse” and the 2004 playoff run, mostly against the Yankees.

    Here’s the trailer:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_C4Vu8hm5fw

    There are three “books”: BOOK I: DOUBT · BOOK II: HOPE · BOOK III: TRANSCENDENCE

    Each book or part is 60 minutes, tonight at 8:30, 9:30 and 10:30.

    If you love baseball, especially the Red Sox and Yankees, and/or local history, WATCH or DVR this documentary. It is so well done!!!

    1. It would have had to have been a pretty drastically different set-up. I don’t think we are ever going to be that close to having it potentially majorly different. That said, yes there was a set-up that might have occurred to make it vastly different. We won’t be there thankfully, in terms of any US East Coast impact. Now we can only hope for the best for those in the path of this atmospheric heat engine.

  17. I’m on my way to the annual Woburn Lions Club Halloween Parade. Awesome event which serves as a major fundraiser for the Lions for eye research.

    This parade goes back many decades. My late cousin’s father was one of the founders.

    Several relatives, neighbors, and friends have served as Lions Club president and many more have been club members over the years. 🙂

    If anybody is interested in seeing this parade later, there will be a YouTube link available through our local cable channel. 🙂

    1. I am an enormous supporter of our Lions Club. It does so so much for its communities. Enjoy, TK

      We had our autumn festival yesterday. It was a tremendous success. It wasn’t sponsored by the Lions but its food truck was there.

      1. It’s not as easy as last week, but this is what the Pats need. This is the best D the Pats have faced so far and they are getting enough yards 3 times for fg’s.

  21. TK – If you get a chance later today or this evening can you give us some highlights of yesterday’s SNE Weather Conference?

    Any Mets give their thoughts on the upcoming winter? Any retired Mets there (i.e. Barry Burbank, Harvey Leonard, etc.)?

  25. Last eyewall pass hit 125 knot flight level winds and pressure may be down again a bit lower than 945 mb

    1. Along with the metric system, Mac tried to teach me knots to mph. I clearly never learned Either and had to look ……a tad over 147?? Wow

    1. Kingston is though on the eastern third and one can see the eye is already at the center of the island.

      The latest hurricane plots now have landfall across the western third of the island, so the ridge to the north of Melissa has ended being a bit stronger.

        1. This could be absolutely devastating to a settlement like Christiana Jamaica, located on the interior of the island, right under the current track and looking like it’s in the slightest bit of a bowl surrounded by hills on all sides. Elevated to get the wind and going to face improbable fresh water flooding from the surrounding hills.

        2. Odd how tropical tidbits will work sometimes and other times I get the forbidden 404. But reading comments, I don’t need to see. 🙁

          1. I’m pretty sure it’s some browser setting. For me:
            – Works using FireFox in a normal window
            – Fails using FireFox in a private window
            – Fails using Edge whether private or not

            1. Thank you. I only use safari and it doesn’t work on it. Although there have been a few times it did work. And once or twice I copied and pasted into my browser which worked. Neither worked today. But I’m fine without it since the explanation says it all.

  29. Another lesson that won’t be learned by the multitudes of weather pages touting a Halloween soaking “northeaster” only because some model guidance had such a system days in advance.

    It’s going to turn out to be an early morning glorified frontal passage on Friday with a relatively brief episode of heavy rain. And as I type this, I just got through seeing the same sources talking about a major storm for November 4-5. Ah! Because some models say so! 😉

    This issue came up several times during the SNE Weather Conference as a growing problem for us professionals. Simply ignoring the problem isn’t going to make it go away. Something will have to be figured out because it’s going to be very difficult to stop these pages from existing. The creators will not follow the ethics that would prevent it from being a problem in the first place.

    1. If you find a source I am happy to help send emails or call. That’s the only way I can think it can be stopped. Replying to the false information is what they want……reaction. Calling them out accomplishes the same.

      1. I have a feeling we’ll be seeing a bit more of an organized movement in the weather community in the next year or so to at least bring more awareness to it, since technically there isn’t a lot that can be done to stop such sites from appearing on social media, so it’ll be more about educating people to know the difference between legit and illegit sources. It came up in the conference, and I suspect this is just the beginning…

        1. Good. And some of our Mets are great at educating already. But trolls and bots are convincing so it’ll take a targeted approach

          1. Yes indeed.

            Speaking of mets etc., after yesterday’s conference and some of the conversations I had, I’m quite pleased with our current set of media folks in our TV market. We’re lucky here.

    1. Clogged? 😉

      Although this isn’t funny. I saw there were a number of rescues. Very sad. And a risk for the rescue teams

    2. The Clogged Railway might be the funniest typo I have seen this entire year. No, no, not might, IS.

        1. Montego Bay, northwest side of the island may have had their chances of experiencing the western eye wall/core increase.

        1. Like Ian a few years ago.

          I think I recall it was headed for Tampa, some actually went south to fort Myers to escape and then it went further south and east thru fort Myers.

      3. Yes.

        We’ll have to see if this trend continues.

        It’s definitely traveled further south today, there was some speculation a day ago if the core would have some friction with Jamaica to impede intensification and it stayed far enough south.

        Don’t yet see a nw turn, so we’ll see

  33. Assuming the forecast track is pretty accurate and a Jamaica landfall occurs, Melissa will be the first major hurricane to make a direct landfall on the island in quite a long time.

    The other Jamaica landfalls of major hurricanes (CAT 3 or greater) were in 1903 (unnamed), 1912 (unnamed), 1951 (Charlie), 1988 (Gilbert).

  34. TK – At yesterday’s conference, were there any predictions for this upcoming winter? 🙂

    And were there any retired tv Mets in attendance?

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