Monday October 27 2025 Forecast (7:06AM)

143 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 27-31)

Here we are at the final 5 days of October, wrapping up with Halloween this coming Friday, and there is a lot of weather to talk about as we head down the home stretch of the tenth month of 2025. First, a word on Hurricane Melissa, currently a category 5 hurricane drifting westward to the south of Jamaica. This is not a large hurricane, size-wise, but is going to be intense as it eventually turns to the north, crossing Jamaica Tuesday morning to midday then turning northeast to cross eastern Cuba Tuesday night and early Wednesday, beginning an acceleration while crossing the eastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos by early Wednesday, finally making a close pass as a weaker hurricane undergoing post-tropical transition early Friday. Obviously, catastrophic damage is a certainty on Jamaica, and major damage in parts of eastern Cuba (as well as Haiti, close enough to the path), and significant damage in the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos. Bermuda will fare somewhat better with a weaker storm by the time it passes there. I’ve linked a colleague’s blog as the first comment below which in additional to a take on the forecast for our area, has more expansive information on the hurricane. Back here in southeastern New England, we remain under the influence of high pressure as it slides from Quebec to Atlantic Canada early to mid week. An upper low also sits over the region and can help trigger a few showers in eastern areas this afternoon, though coverage will be isolated. This moves out by Tuesday as the first of two low pressure areas triggered by a deeper trough moving in from the west develops to our south, but passes out to sea. It will be close enough to enhance our northeasterly air flow later Tuesday into Wednesday with some low clouds off the ocean and perhaps some patches of drizzle. There can be enough dry air involved for partial sun as well. Above that will be a high to mid level cloud shield Tuesday night and Wednesday associated with the initial storm well to our south. Some of the rain from that may just make it to the South Coast at some point during Wednesday, but it would be very light and spotty. A second, stronger storm will take near the coast well to our south, and the track of this one should be to our west Thursday night and early Friday. This would bring a shorter-duration but moderate to heavy slug of rain through our region sometime between late day Thursday and daybreak Friday. The final details on timing and intensity still need to be ironed out over the next few days. This set-up would allow drying to take place during the day Friday, which would be fairly mild in comparison to the days leading up to it, but breezy as well with a wind having switched around to the west behind the storm system. This is decent news for the Friday evening trick-or-treat plans for Halloween. I’ll talk about this in more detail as we get closer to it as well.

TODAY: Sunny start, then variably cloudy. A pop-up shower possible mid to late afternoon favoring the I-95 belt eastward. Highs 50-57. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds decrease. Lows 36-43. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine, then clouds return northeast to southwest later in the day. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle possible. Chance of light rain South Coast Wednesday. Lows 41-48. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Possible drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain develops south to north. Highs 50-57. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain, heavy at times. Lows 48-55. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

Watch for passing systems to produce unsettled weather episodes November 2 and 4 with fair weather on the other days, based on current timing of a pattern of quick-moving systems. Temperatures variable will end up fairly close to normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

Next best shot at a passing unsettled weather system is late-period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

143 thoughts on “Monday October 27 2025 Forecast (7:06AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    37 here earlier this morning.

    Ocean temp: 56 (Boston Bouy)

    Melissa a cat 5. I feel for Jamaica.

    Wordle; 4
    Never heard of the word at all, ever .

    2. Yup, new word for me too.

      4

      Had 3 of the last 4 in the correct spot plus one in the wrong spot after guess 3.

      So, it was a case of guessing a 1st letter and it was a guess !! I half expected to be told it was not a word.

  4. Its amazing to watch the earth release heat from its oceans !!

    Looking forward to the new seasonal ACE numbers after this one is all said and done.

    Boggles the mind how much heat energy is stored in those Caribbean waters. When the atmosphere can provide conditions for it to maximize the release of all of that heat, you get systems like this.

    1. Indeed and I believe those waters South of Jamaica were at or very nearly 90 degrees!!! No wonder!

  8. I got it in three.

    Somehow, I’m familiar with this word. Maybe it’s from reading so much Poe when I was young. 🙂

  12. Nice 3s and 4s for Wordle. Especially with that word. Like SClarke, I know the word but suspect I have never used it. And I made the same mistake today that I made yesterday and said I’d not do it again. :roll;

    Long way to say I’ll be toddy’s caboose with another 5.

  14. Thank you TK!

    Wordle: 3

    Spoke to our family in Jamaica yesterday as they were making final preparations. Phone connection was already degrading and now we will wait until we hear word that they are safe after it passes. Going to be a long couple of days here.

        1. I am absolutely not guaranteeing anything, but I have a tiny bit of hope that the worst, worst, worst of the core may end up west of them.

          Still torrential rains and hurricane force gusts, but I have some tiny hope the eastern third does not get sustained 125 mph winds.

  16. Melissa just wobbled south and then southeast.

    Is this a precursor to it finally gaining some latitude?

  17. Thanks, TK!

    49 now up from a low of 30
    The flowers in the garden are still hanging in there!!! 🙂

    Sue, again, know of my prayers for the best for your family.

  18. SAK:

    Do you and your company still forecast for clients in the Caribbean? If so, I seem to remember that your clients are in the islands in the Lesser Antilles and not in Jamaica.

    1. Yes, we do a radio station in Jamaica. They are based in Montego Bay, and are still broadcasting.

      We also have a group of stations in the USVI.

      1. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
        center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
        (315 km)

        Yes and this is right off the 11am discussion. 30 miles from the center.

        1. Small, compact and most powerful!!!
          That is a tiny radius of hurricane force winds which should spare all but those in the direct path. That offers some hope.

          1. Yes.

            Within that tiny core … well, I don’t know if its realistic, but it would be best if no one is riding out the storm in that core.

              1. Now, we just need to watch on upcoming recon planes prior to landfall, if the hurricane eases ever so slightly from its current strength, but …… if that causes the core to expand out a bit from the center.

  22. 12Z GFS projected landfall

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-met&rh=2025102712&fh=27&r=caribbean&dpdt=&mc=

    HAFA Projected landfall

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hafsa&region=13L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025102706&fh=12

    HAFSV landfall

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hafsb&region=13L&pkg=ref&runtime=2025102706&fh=36

    HMON landfall

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=13L&pkg=ref&runtime=2025102706&fh=30

    HWRF

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=13L&pkg=ref&runtime=2025102706&fh=30

  23. According to Kelly Ann this morning, the EURO hints at Melissa remnants being drawn up into SNE enhancing our own rainfall.

  25. Last row, look at the Gulf.

    Upper level winds of late October may prevent tropical development, so, I hypothesize the stage is set for a very strong mid latitude storm over the eastern 2/3rds of the country in the next few months, formed by all that heat energy available in the Gulf of Mexico.

  26. There was a small mention on WBZ at noon of our coming Thursday rainstorm picking up a little tropical moisture from Melissa.

    Noticed on BZ that Dan Brown gave the noontime forecast. I think he is a forecaster in western MA.

    1. If you put your cursor on the eye right away, you’ll see the eye drop to the SW. The western edge of the storm seems to move north.

    2. Directly from my blog this morning:

      “We’ll also be keeping an eye on what remains of Hurricane Melissa (more on that in a moment). The system should be heading well out to sea, but it could be just close enough to the East Coast for our developing system to tap into it, and infuse some tropical moisture, which would result in much heavier rain from this system. This scenario is not looking that likely at this time, but it is a possibility, so we felt the need to mention it.”

      1. Nice !

        I apologize, this morning was busy setting up and I didn’t get a chance to read your blog and I forgot to go back to it later. 🙂

    2. Every person per flight into these things should be compensated at least $100,000 per flight, if not a lot more. What they save in return is worth a lot more than that. I’d need to be wearing diapers and something to shock my heart back to life.

  36. I’ve mentioned a few times that we went to Jamaica back in August and stayed in the Montego Bay/Falmouth area on the northwestern coast and went on a few excursions inland to do some river tubing and bamboo rafting. I fear these areas are going to be hardest hit with the center of the storm passing close by.

    There are a LOT of rivers that flow out of the mountains and into the ocean there. These are going to be torrents of rushing water like the residents there have never seen in their lives after 30″+ of rain. We went to three of them and I thought I would share a few pictures of what they look like on a NORMAL day:

    Tubing on the Martha Brae near Falmouth:
    https://imgur.com/W9CNyGH

    Bamboo rafting on the Martha Brae further up on the calmer portion of the river:
    https://imgur.com/a/aiTBDv0

    Tubing on the White River (near Ocho Rios):
    https://imgur.com/7mpEwNV

    Dunns River Falls (near Ocho Rios):
    https://imgur.com/08mjcLf

    1. The White and Martha Brae Rivers, while fairly narrow, are extremely deep according to the tour guides. You’ll notice in the White River photo that the river has essentially carved out a ravine there and the tour guide said the water level has gotten to the top of those embankments during past tropical storms. I cant imagine what this will look like after 30 inches of rain. But with a channel that narrow, it is going to be absolutely raging and will take out everything nearby in its path.

      2. One of my favorite vacation activities ever was bamboo rafting in Jamaica — a very long time ago. I hope other generations will have the same opportunity…

    2. Those are great photos, Mark !!

      May those areas be able to come back to something like this in the future. The good news is, nature does find a way.

  38. Already 51,000 without power as of 9:30AM this morning in Jamaica and I dont believe anyone in the island is even seeing anything more than low end tropical storm conditions yet.

  41. At 906mb, Melissa becomes the 11th most intense hurricane (going by pressure only) in the Atlantic, just outside the top 10.

    2. Not sure that Flat Bridge is going to still be there by Wednesday….likely will be underwater at some point.

    1. This is a good thing, a northerly track now might just scrape the western tip, there’s going to have to be an easterly component to the northerly turn to get it to cross the western third.

      Keep tracking more and more west while south of jamaica!!!

  45. This is a population map of Jamaica from 2011. A bit dated but you get the picture. 2.7 million people on the island and 1.2 million of them live in St Catherine and St Andrew parishes in and around the Kingston area. So silver lining that the highest population areas will likely avoid the catastrophic wind damage on top of all the impending coastal and inland flooding.

    However there are still over a half million people in the four parishes that make up the western third of the island including Montego Bay and Negril. There are simply not enough safe spots for all these people to go to avoid the impending extreme winds and flooding. It is very mountainous there and there are houses all over the hillsides accessed by narrow winding tree enshrouded roads. I’m afraid they are going to need a last minute miracle here to avoid a high death toll in this area.

    https://balcostics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/balcostics-look-on-the-population.png?w=750

    2. OR perhaps it keeps going West before it turns North?????

      Something like this

      https://ibb.co/d0Zsdvbf

      That would be great for Jamaica, but not so great for Cuba, but perhaps by then it will have weakened some.

        1. Adding. Please for anyone just reading, that was a hopeful guess on my part and is absolutely not the current forecast

          1. Indeed and was a HOPEFUL suggestion on my part.
            The longer it keep moving/jogging or whatever to the Southwest, the better. The NHC forecast tracks are good, but NOT perfect. I would have expected a more
            Northerly movement by now. Here’s HOPING.

            Time will tell.

  49. I wouldnt look too much into the instantaneous movements of this thing….at 2-3 mph it is essentially stationary and just wobbling in place. Once it gets picked up it is going to get lifted NW then quickly N. Even if the center went just west of Negril, the western third of the island is going to be hammered in the eastern eyewall and stronger quadrant of the storm. Though a more western track will continue to mean slightly better news for eastern areas.

    1. That latest was not an instantaneous move. Look at the time stamp on the loop. Latest loops I looked at had it moving WSW for about 3 hours. TO me, that is significant, but I am NO expert in tropical weather for sure. Just looking at the clock and watching those radar loops and making my own observations.

      We shall see.

      1. It looks to me to my untrained eye that it is doing a short cyclonic loop as Tom said. I left my cursor stationary over the eye and the eye moved west past the cursor and then backed up over it again. Its progress west is coming to an end.

        And yes it is over 3 hours but only moving at 2-3 mph. 6-9 miles of movement isnt really all that significant, especially when that movement is west, then NW, then SW. It is essentially stationary with slight progress west.

    1. I’m convinced that is what its doing. Progress west has stopped and it is nearly stationary. Should start to get pulled NW, then N later tonight. There is no avoiding this in western Jamaica.

      1. What a machine !!

        12 to maybe 18 hrs at this intensity. Wow !!

        I can’t imagine what the ocean must be like within the core.

        All that mist/latent heat in the air with torrential rain falling. It would probably be blinding.

    1. Though Knabb at the end does not entirely discount the possibility it could go slightly outside of the cone.

      1. May have even gone a mile or 2 east in the last
        couple frames. Times up for the western third/central part of the island.

        It seems to be generating some convection ahead of the CDO that’s coming ashore too.

        Bless these people.

        1. The western edge of that cone is arguably worse as it puts the population and tourist centers of Negril and Montego Bay in the eyewall. Just no good solution here.

          I was very fortunate we got to go there a few months ago. The landscape is going to be reshaped in many areas and it is going to take years to recover.

          Bless them indeed.

  54. Meanwhile, if it’s even possible, Melissa looks even better organized over the last few hours with deep convection symmetrically spinning about her eye.

        1. It was close on a recent recon pass.

          I saw a non extrapolated 902.1 mb on tropical tidbits on a fairly recent recon eye pass.

  56. I had to check to verify, Melissa originated from Africa. It was displaced fairly to the south and tracked westward across the entire Atlantic as a notable wave.

    Interesting it’s not from the Central American gyre, this late in the season.

    Melissa has certainly zapped a lot of heat energy in the east central Caribbean.

    Believe me, the western Caribbean has a ton left too.

    I’m not suggesting anything like this, but I could see a depression/tropical storm/hurricane for the western Caribbean up to the southern gulf before November is over. I haven’t looked at all the teleconnections, so I don’t know if they are favorable for development.

  57. Non Melissa

    I’m like, why is it windy all of a sudden ….

    It wasn’t, it just briefly poured from a tiny, heavy cell that came right in off the ocean. 🙂

    2. And those max gusts (or whatever they are at landfall) will be realized in the mountainous areas inland.

  63. With the lowest pressures etc. – keep in mind that these days are ability to measure such things is better than ever.

    This is why they do the hurricane reanalysis project (and they’re only done up to 1970) and find a lot of storms previously were actually stronger than originally noted. This is IMPORTANT from a scientific standpoint.

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