Tuesday October 28 2025 Forecast (7:06AM)

128 Comments

HURRICANE MELISSA UPDATE

The hurricane peaked in intensity (175 MPH sustained winds – category 5) overnight and is now approaching landfall on the south coast of Jamaica, the center to move across the west central portion of the island today, where catastrophic damage will occur. We can only hope shelter is adequate enough to save the lives of those in the path. As previously mentioned, there will be significant impact over eastern Jamaica as well, but they will be outside the strongest core of the storm. Also wind damage and flooding rain impacts extend eastward to Haiti, with the Dominican Republic less impacted for being further east. The path of the storm then takes it across eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos, as a weakening but still formidable hurricane with damaging wind and flooding rain along its path. By late Thursday night / early Friday it is accelerating by Bermuda as a weakening hurricane with much lesser impact there, then off into the Atlantic it goes, losing tropical characteristics thereafter. There may be a minor infusion of some of the moisture from this system into the one that’s going to impact our region but not enough to really reach our area with any notable increase in rainfall amount potential…

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

For our area, there is not a lot of change to the discussion and forecast from yesterday, so summarizing, we find ourselves in a northeasterly air flow today becoming more easterly during Wednesday. A deck of stratus clouds is already moving into southeastern MA as of daybreak today and will be most prominent south of Boston today while sunshine is more prevalent to the northwest. If you are out from under this stratus deck you’ll notice high cloudiness advancing from southwest to northeast across the sky, and this is from the previously-mentioned initial storm system passing to our south. It makes its “closest” pass tonight and early Wednesday when the high to mid level cloud shield will be thickest over our region, adding some patchy light rain mainly to southeastern MA (Cape & Islands most notably) while some coastal area drizzle can occur under thicker stratus clouds due to moisture advecting off the ocean. The latter will become more established through the region during the day Wednesday as the first storm system starts to move away but keeps the broad scale onshore wind flow going. As this takes place, a second storm takes shape to the south, and the track of this one is “inside” or west of our region, but not by that much. This brings a ribbon of heavier rainfall up and across our region Thursday night, occurring over a several hour period from around dusk to pre-dawn before it moves out to the east and northeast. As low pressure wraps up northwest of our area during Friday (Halloween), we’ll experience dry weather with a gusty westerly breeze but air not all that chilly during the day. By evening it cools down, but not substantially, and stays rain-free with varying amounts of clouds playing with a waxing gibbous moon in the sky as a gusty breeze blows making a “spooky” trick or treat evening. Some areas that had a lot of leaf drop may still have wet leaves underfoot that have not had a chance to dry yet, so keep this in mind of walking or driving around that evening. Heading to Saturday, the first day of November, it looks like we will have a dry, breezy, and seasonably cool day with a sun/cloud mix as we’re still under the influence of that low pressure area as it moves into southeastern Canada.

TODAY: Most sun northwest of Boston, less sun southeast with low clouds moving in from the ocean. Increasing high clouds south to north above that later. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT / WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle possible especially eastern coastal locations. Chance of light rain South Coast early Wednesday. Lows 41-48. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Possible drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Rain arrives late-day / evening southwest to northeast. Highs 50-57. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain, heavy at times. Lows 48-55. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

Watch for passing systems to produce unsettled weather episodes November 2 and 4 with fair weather on the other days, based on current timing of a pattern of quick-moving systems. Temperatures variable will end up not far from normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

Next best shot at a passing unsettled weather system is mid to late-period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

128 thoughts on “Tuesday October 28 2025 Forecast (7:06AM)”

  1. One positive… the tiny size of that hurricane is saving a lot more of the region from being as severely impacted as where the core will pass. No consolation for the areas hardest-hit, but better news outside of those areas.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    40 overnight here, currently 44.

    Ocean temp: 56

    Melissa, holy crap batman. I hope people are ok there.

    Wordle: 4

    1. Up to 36 from 33 here. Praying for all in the path of Melissa. Terrifying

      I seem to have taken up permanent residence in the caboose. I couldn’t get the first letter and still had a couple more possible words when I failed

          2. After 3 guesses, had the last letter correct and 1 other letter out of position and the word just came to me. I sense luck and not skill.

  6. Its not going to make a difference.

    I am curious from a recon center pass soon, if the northern core now impacting elevated, interior Jamaica, presenting some friction, has this landfalling closer to 915-920 mb and not close to 900 mb.

    Looking back, the 1932 hurricane caught my attention. It was a cat 5, 915 mb system, but out in the central Caribbean. It made landfall as a cat 3.

  8. Thank you TK!

    Wordle: 4

    My husband was up bright and early to check on his homeland. We were messaging with one of our niece’s until about 10:00 pm last night but haven’t heard back since. I am grateful that they are not in the area that it is projected to make landfall but worry for all in its path.

  15. That pass got a special 9am advisory

    896 mb

    I’d like to know of these top 10 storms, how many of them intensified right up to landfall and came in under 900 mb.

  17. Thank you, TK.

    896 mb is astounding.

    My thoughts are with all of those impacted.

    Sue, I’m thinking of your family.

  18. On a completely different note, Game 3 in this year’s World Series was quite an epic battle. What impressed me most was the defense: Incredible outfield and infield throws by both teams throughout the game (and relays).

  19. My thoughts are with all of the people that are down in Jamaica. Entire island no one is recieving less than 10 inches. Many are seeing well over 20 with pockets seeing up to 40. The elevation is going to play a factor with that as well. Several of those towns on the SW and south Central coasts. White house to Tresure beach I feel like many of those communities are going to get hit hard from all three major aspects of this storm. Not to mention many of these areas on top of their rainfall will get alot of rain run off from the mountains. Add the coastal flooding situation and the low lying aspects of many of those towns your asking for trouble with a storm taking this type of an angle. that eye is not that small. This storm could crack top 5 strongest hurricanes in terms of MB pressure. With all that lightning in the eye wall, It will be interesting what it ends up being just as it hits land. Hoping they have recon in it just as it hits land.

  20. One recon plane is just circling within the eye on multiple passes.

    All sub 900 mb pressure readings, with a low of 893 mb in the center (non – extrapolated)

  23. Have there been any previous hurricanes that took a path similar to Melissa’s, affecting so many islands?

    1. Not Sure, If I remember correctly, usually if a hurricane strikes multiple Islands it would be moving East to West or ESE to WNW etc.

      I presume there must have been some that developed in the Carribbean and moved northward to get multiple islands, but none come to my mind at the moment.

    1. That is incredible!!!

      That is almost like the equivalent of an EF-4 tornado that is
      50-60 miles wide!!!! Wrap your head around that!!!

      1. I’m struggling to.

        Thought maybe the northern core getting some friction from elevated areas of Jamaica might have it slightly weakening a bit upon landfall.

        But, I guess the warmer than avg SST and of course, a perfect upper level environment are counteracting that and then some.

      1. This is a complete disaster for Montego Bay. Eye heading straight towards them and just not enough time for any significant weakening as it enters the south coast. Island is only about 20-25 miles wide there.

  29. Its like it thought, I’m going to stay over the water as long as I can and as mentioned above backed a bit to almost due north.

    1. Yup! Helping to spare Eastern Sections, but could be a total disaster on the Western end of the island.

        1. That population by county post you made yesterday Mark was extra excellent ! I had no idea that many people lived on Jamaica and it was an excellent breakdown.

          If this more N track continues through Jamaica, Montego Bay is going to be in the western eye wall, if not the center of the eye.

  30. In black river and treasure beach, I am guessing the sky overhead is blue, maybe the sun is high enough to get over the towering cumulus on the eyewall, its calm and eerie.

    Probably have gone through 120+ sustained winds with gusts to who knows and looking south, one would see the southern eyewall looming and slowly coming closer.

      1. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=vis

        By the way, Kingston, Jamaica has a 25 mph SE wind and didn’t report any gusts this past hr. Their highest recorded gust is, I think 57 mph. This is great news for this area.

        I do wonder if the massive surge closer to the eye, moved down the coast a bit though, just by the principle of gravity. Can’t mound a 20 ft storm surge to the west and not have some of that spread out, I would think.

        1. This is Good news for Sue’s family as well.
          They are a bit West of Kingston, but “should” be far enough away from the core winds to be OK. Let us hope so anyway.

          1. Definitely good news. I had a message thread going with my sister in law all morning but haven’t heard from her in quite a while now.

  31. The current path would put it right over the airport when it gets to the other side of the island.

    1. A lot of the resorts in Montego Bay are east of the airport, so anyone who stayed would potentially get into the eye too.

  34. Curious question. The span between lowest and highest winds for the Saffir-Simpson scale increases a bit with each category. The largest increase is for cat 4 (130-156) at 26 mph. If my math is correct with Cat 5 at 157, if there were a cat 6, it would start just after 183.

    Does that put Melissa in a new category?

  38. JpDave, your accuweather post above from Montego Bay, now has N wind at 96 mph, gusting to 123 mph

  39. Anyone see what the winds at Kingston were at the time of landfall? 22 knots. Gives you an idea of just how compact the hurricane is.

  40. Eric F has a post re: the turbulence a recon plane took this morning, that the plane briefly experienced forces stronger than normal and that the aircraft needs an inspection before returning to further recon flights.

  42. Now Montego bay report winds NNW 117 mph with gusts
    to 147 mph!!!

    Montego BAY taking quite a hit!

  43. Looks like the center is right near where the St James and Trelawny parishes meet. There are many resorts in that area and east of it and the airport is just to the west of there.

    1. The center is going right over the Iberostar resort in Rose Hall where we stayed a few months ago, about 10 miles east of Montego Bay. Cant imagine what it looks like now with gusts to nearly 150 mph.

      1. We stayed there in 2009. We loved it there. I can’t imagine what the people in that area are going through.

  44. Latest updates from storm chaser Josh Morgerman in the heart of the storm…havent seen a more recent post since 4 hours ago….

    Josh Morgerman
    @iCyclone
    5h
    9:35 am. Crashing sounds —like an explosion. Wreckage flying down the street. Trees bending way over. Very unpleasant pressure in the ears. #Hurricane #MELISSA in Crawford, St. Elizabeth Parish #Jamaica

    Josh Morgerman
    @iCyclone
    4h
    10:25 am. Frightening power. Whiteout. Roofs teaing off. Gusts like bombs going off. Painful ears. Praise the lord for solid concrete. 962 mb

    https://x.com/iCyclone

  45. https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/map-xs3q/Jamaica/

    I hope the tooographical map can be found easily.

    If I’m reading and interpreting correctly, the center has been over uneven hills and mountains for many hrs now that are btwn 1,500 and 2,200 ft in elevation.

    This is so scary for rainfall.

    But, I can’t believe that eye nearly made it fully across. It really speaks to how strong this was.

    There are instances where especially Cuba and probably Jamaica too have ended many tropical systems circulations while crossing them.

    This has been an amazing last 12-24 hrs in the weather world.

        1. Jr said headed west of Bermuda. Remember I’m direction challenged but pretty sure I recall west.

          He also mentioned again which I believe you did also that a touch of the moisture from Melissa might mix with our low. He also said not to confuse with any part of Melissa. I wonder if he reads here 😉

  48. Beware of the multitude of AI images being shared across social media. Most of what you are seeing for “flying debris” and “birds trapped in the eye” are FAKE. Don’t share them. Report them.

      1. I report the pages to whatever source they are on. There’s an option to do it.

  49. Looks like a bit of land friction is pulling the now steadily weakening hurricane a tiny bit more ENE than the forecast track had.

    2. Wow, that was fast! Huge eye has redeveloped. Much less compact storm as well with broader wind field as it reorganizes over the open waters. Definitely some restrengthening going on there but wont have more than another three hours or so before it interacts with land again over Cuba.

  52. Cat 5 eyewall footage, St Catherine Jamaica:

    BGWX
    @BradyBGWX
    6h

    If you ever wondered what a Category 5 eyewall looked like, here it is.

    Shear power being displayed from Mother Nature in which we’re seeing catastrophic damage in #Jamaica .

    Listen to the sound though…

    Taken about an hour or so ago from St. Elizabeth Parish during landfall according to
    @travismacmillan
    who said I could share this from his WhatsApp group chat.

    https://x.com/BradyBGWX/status/1983241789810135072

  54. R A W S A L E R T S
    @rawsalerts
    9h

    #BREAKING: Listen as terrifying screams of extreme wind reaching 185+ mph tear through Treasure Beach, Jamaica where a catastrophic, life-threatening Category 5 hurricane is unleashing its full force. The storm’s powerful eyewall is now directly over the area, battering everything in its path.

    https://x.com/rawsalerts/status/1983200652491686179

  55. Let’s ride it out in our boat, that sounds like a good idea!

    MəanL¡LMə♡₩
    @MeanLILMeoW
    5h
    #BREAKING
    #HURRICANE MELISSA CAT 5 STORM

    MONTEGO BAY, #JAMAICA

    My boy CaptainSpeedy finally admits its getting bad and I think he abandoned ship ⛵️ hopefully he can walk in those winds

    Pray for CaptainSpeedy and his boat lolz

    https://x.com/MeanLILMeoW/status/1983256389557596313

    1. If he doesn’t care about his life, maybe he might think of those who would need to rescue him. You truly cannot fix stupid.

  57. From Pete. Apologies If it’s already been shared

    “You’re witnessing history in this satellite image. Hurricane Melissa is tied with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the strongest storm (wind speed to 185mph & lowest pressure) to ever make landfall in the Atlantic Basin.”

  58. Just saw this? Is it accurate ?

    A record-shattering wind gust of 252 mph was measured in the southern eyewall of Hurricane Melissa as the Category 5 storm made landfall in Jamaica on October 28, 2025. The measurement was taken by an instrument dropped from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, just above the ocean’s surface. This is considered the strongest wind gust ever directly measured in a tropical cyclone.

    1. It has to be verified. It was also well above the surface. Gusts in the mid 200s would not be uncommon for a tropical cyclone of that size and magnitude, but measuring one with a dropsonde in a vast area would be like winning the lottery. Right place, right time.

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