Wednesday October 29 2025 Forecast (7:15AM)

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HURRICANE MELISSA UPDATE

The hurricane crossed Jamaica yesterday and is currently (as of this writing) crossing eastern Cuba, set to track through the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later today, weakening, and finally making a close pass to Bermuda late Thursday / early Friday, continuing the weakening process and beginning its post-tropical transition. As previously mentioned, a minor moisture infusion may occur into our upcoming storm system, but not one that will significantly enhance our rainfall amount potential. Consult the latest advisory from NHC for complete information about this system.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

Broad-scale onshore flow continues and the lower levels are more moist so that the stratus cloud coverage is more extensive, and this will be the case today, though there can be enough dry air working in to cause some breaks in the clouds and maybe even a few intervals of sun. Also, we may see some drizzle patches off the ocean. A low pressure area will offshore to the southeast will move away today. We then turn attention to the next storm system developing to our south, destined to take a track just to our west later Thursday then redevelop over Maine on Friday before heading into Atlantic Canada. Any moisture infusion from the tropical activity well to the southeast should miss our area (may clip Downeast Maine on Friday). We will, however, have a nice slug of rainfall with the system over several hours from evening Thursday to pre-dawn Friday, which does help to continue to reduce our precipitation deficit. Behind this system, expect a breezy, drier, but mild day Friday. There may be a lingering shower with the departing storm system’s occluded front first thing in the morning, and a little wrap-around moisture can trigger an afternoon shower in the hills of southwestern NH and north central MA for a brief time. Otherwise, heading into the trick-or-treat hours it looks like variably cloudy skies will play with the waxing gibbous moon and a gusty breeze will add some spookiness to the overall feel of the evening. Watch for fallen leaves that can still be wet from previous rainfall when walking and/or driving and stay safe! …. Heading into the weekend (and the first 2 days of November), high pressure brings fair but breezy weather Saturday as the high center is to our west and still producing a fairly tight pressure gradient in combination with low pressure in Atlantic Canada. This will relax a bit on Sunday. Previously I was eyeing a potential disturbance for some unsettled weather Sunday, and while the system is still technically there, it will likely be insignificant and only bring some cloud patches and no threat of any precipitation, so basically a dry weekend forecast is the result.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle possible especially eastern coastal locations. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Possible drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Rain arrives late-day / evening southwest to northeast. Highs 50-57. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain, heavy at times. Lows 48-55. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. An early-day shower possible north of I-90. A late-day shower possible southwestern NH and north central MA. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloud / sun intervals. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

Trend is for a split flow on the large scale with a weakening southern jet stream and more dominant northern jet stream. Interaction of the two can produce a brief rain event about November 4, but there’s also a chance this interaction fails to occur and we just have a frontal passage from the northern stream system. Another disturbance approaches by the end of the period with a rain/mix shower threat. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Next best shot at a passing unsettled weather system is mid to late-period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

50 thoughts on “Wednesday October 29 2025 Forecast (7:15AM)”

  3. Thanks TK !

    At my daughter’s field hockey game last night, if you put your hand in front of the actual stadium lights and looked, it looked like wind driven snow. Those big stadium lights create more than is actually happening, as it was just some light mist. I feel like this happens on occasion during NFL games where the camera pans to the lights and it looks a lot worse than it is.

  4. Didn’t make the train today on wordle, fail !!

    Could of had it in 5 or 6, but the 2 words I came up with were not meant to be. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Sorry to hear. You’ll get it tomorrow.
      I could have gotten it in 2 or 3, but my chosen words were NOT THE WORD. 3rd valid word got it on 4th guess.

    2. Darn. You’ll be back tomorrow Lots of days with choices now. I had trouble with the first letter again. Had last 4 at third guess but didn’t get first till guess 5

    3. Tom – You’ll be welcomed back on board tomorrow! I really get a laugh out of the train analogy. If you fall off the back of the caboose today, get yourself up and off the tracks before tomorrow’s train comes through. 🙂

      I got it in four today.

        1. my analogy? Was it I who started using caboose meaning the one with the poorest Wordle score of the day OR
          was it Vicki? Honestly, I don’t remember. 🙂

  6. I saw Guantanamo Bay’s ob before I fell asleep last night. They were having tropical storm conditions, something to the order of winds sustained in the 30s to 40s mph, with gusts in the 50s or 60s, I don’t remember exactly. That was before landfall. I think the ob is down this morning.

  12. Thank you TK!

    Haven’t got to the Wordle today so nothing to report there. I did hear from my sister in law this morning and she was off to work. She is a guard at a women’s prison and is obviously an essential employee. Being east of where it made landfall definitely limited the damage in their area and for that we are very thankful.

  13. Thanks TK
    Quiet weather today unlike back on this date in 2011 and 2012 with the autumn noreaster and Superstorm Sandy. I lost power for multiple days with both those storms and in my town Halloween was postponed a week due to those storms.

  14. 36-42 hrs out, there are hints of some moisture from Melissa getting entrained into the mid latitude system, as discussed the last few days.

    Its going to be close, as the mid latitude jet is trying to punch eastward that moisture conduit.

    Here are the 12z models QPF projection for about a 6 hr window. Looks like this enhancement is for eastern or easternmost Mass

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=qpf_006h-imp&rh=2025102912&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_006h-imp&rh=2025102912&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=qpf_006h-imp&rh=2025102912&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=qpf_006h-imp&rh=2025102912&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=qpf_006h-imp&rh=2025102912&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Hoping another 24 hrs from now will further pin point where that narrow enhancement occurs.

  15. Thanks TK.

    3min 30sec of video footage from Montego Bay during the passage of the eyewall.

    Brett Adair
    @Tornadair
    #Hurricane #Melissa WRECKED portions of Montego Bay., #Jamaica.
    @LiveStormsMedia
    chaser
    @samdienst captured incredible video as the north and northwest eye wall came through and absolutely trashed the area ripping portions of the roof off and damaging almost everything to some extent. #Tropical #viral

    https://x.com/Tornadair/status/1983372885604417825

  18. Still no update from Josh Morgerman since 10:30AM yesterday. This guy has been in 85 hurricanes and knows what he is doing so likely the result of having no power/internet and probably no means to get out of SW Jamaica presently with all the blocked roads.

  20. From a woman staying at the Iberostar Rose Hall Suites, the resort where we stayed in August and where North has stayed in the past as well. She has posted several videos of the aftermath on her FB page. The resort has a U shaped building so the pool area is fairly protected and looks like it faired pretty well. Front side of the resort though looks like a mess and there is a gaping hole in the lobby ceiling.

    https://www.facebook.com/reel/1038174605037538/?mibextid=ZZyLBr

    1. My husband was there a couple weeks ago and had not been home in 20 years. He was struggling with the heat while his family got a bit of a chuckle out of it. They are definitely acclimated to it. He stayed at his brother’s house and they do not have A/C except in one bedroom.

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