Thursday October 30 2025 Forecast (7:10AM)

104 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

High pressure in Atlantic Canada and approaching low pressure from the south continues to produce broad scale onshore flow with a stratus cloud deck and areas of drizzle today while high and mid level clouds increase and thicken unseen above that. As low pressure passes just west of our area and redevelops overhead tonight and very early Friday, we’ll have an area of moderate to heavy rainfall, partially enhanced by a moisture connection to distant Hurricane Melissa which will be approaching and passing Bermuda – although the bulk of this enhanced moisture does pass just east of our region. Friday, low pressure will lift northward through Maine and into far southeastern Canada, with an elongated center stretching back to the west – north of our region. This will kick up a moderate, gusty westerly wind with generally dry weather for Friday, but I cannot rule out a quick-passing afternoon shower, especially north of I-90, favoring the hills of north central MA and southern NH, from wrap-around moisture and a little orographic enhancement. Any of these would be brief in locations that they did occur. While it’ll be relatively mild during the daytime on Friday, we’ll have a quick cool-down with a continued gusty wind during the evening, and lot of clouds passing by the waxing gibbous moon adding to the spooky vibe for Halloween evening. We do need to be mindful of a couple of things regarding trick-or-treat and travel by foot or car. Areas of downed leaves that were soaked during the previous rainfall may not have fully dried out, and that can create slick spots for walking or driving. Additionally, stronger wind gusts can create a hazard for falling branches from weaker trees. Use extra caution. The gusty wind will continue into Saturday, shifting more from west to northwest as the low pressure area progresses further into Atlantic Canada. The wind will slacken later Saturday and Sunday. During the cool weather this weekend, we’ll have a sun/cloud mix both Saturday and Sunday, but the clouds likely end up more dominant on Sunday due to the passage of an upper level disturbance. Monday’s weather looks fairly tranquil and a little less chilly with a weak area of high pressure following the departure of Sunday’s upper disturbance.

TODAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Rain arrives late-day / evening southwest to northeast. Highs 50-57. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain, heavy at times. Lows 48-55. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. An early-day shower possible north of I-90. A late-day shower possible southwestern NH and north central MA. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloud / sun intervals. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

Weakening split flow pattern with less involvement from southern jet stream which fades while the northern jet stream becomes dominant. Brief rain showers possible early November 4 and brief rain/mix showers possible November 6 with passing disturbances / fronts. Otherwise a mostly dry pattern with temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

One or two systems can impact the region but no major storminess expected. General low pressure track through Great Lakes creating variable temperatures for our area. More detail on day to day weather for these days as it gets closer.

104 thoughts on “Thursday October 30 2025 Forecast (7:10AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    49 here this morning. Spent all of yesterday PM in the upper 40s for a rather chilly day.

    Ocean temperature is holding at 56 out at Boston Bouy.

    Wordle: 3

    3. Congratulations to you and to everyone. I had six again. I’m beginning to be quite comfortable in the caboose. Nice to have company though 🙂

  4. So another lesson that won’t be learned by all of the fake-casters out on social media, which prompted many people to message me over a week ago about the “major northeaster that’s going to wash out Halloween”. Others talked about Melissa becoming directly involved. Later on, many talked about how much Melissa was going to enhance our rainfall.

    Model outputs are not “exactly what’s going to happen”. They are simulations. They are less accurate the further out in time you go. They have biases. Meteorologists know these biases best. People who with no training who have weather pages that put out information thousands don’t seem to know is not legit do not know the biases or anything else other than “what the model shows”.

    Reality check…
    -Not a “nor’easter”.
    -Not “washing out Halloween”.
    -Not even really a “major storm”. This is what is known as a “frontal passage” from an occluding / redeveloping low pressure area.
    -Influence from Melissa: Minimal, at best (see my discussion).

    There’s a reason why I follow trends and don’t jump guns. There’s a reason why I forecast responsibly. Many of us do. The real ones, that is. Will the lesson be learned? I exceedingly doubt it. 😉

    Same folks were already talking about a “major storm threat” for November 4-6. I’ll let you do the research that one if you want to. 😉

    1. How long until the same Facebook Forecasters start posting the snow maps from the 00z Euro for the storm on November 10? (which probably won’t be there on the 12z run)

      1. A few days ago I saw a couple (don’t remember exactly who because they seem to randomly pop up on my feed now) posting snow maps for November 7 that had shown up on a run or two of the GFS. So given that, I’ll take the option “within 2 minutes of when they see it”.

        1. Lol ….. its obnoxious.

          Very occasionally, I’ll peek through the comments and that’s where the issue is, because there will be comments like …. “thank you, keep us posted” or “this is going to be a great winter” and I just have to fight myself not to comment and I don’t 🙂

          1. Most of the time I see any of these posts these days are because someone shared it to me to ask how true it is.

            This problem actually came up at the weather conference, as I mentioned, but I’m not sure how much can be done to stop the misinfo and bad sources, especially since they are just taken as the real thing. I mean, Direct Weather’s winter forecast (which has now been issued 6 times) is being shared and headlined by major news sources. No, he’s not a meteorologist. He has zero training.

  5. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
    (315 km).

    Pretty neat to see evolutions in tropical systems.

    At its strongest and most intense, this obviously was a compact core.

    Now, much, much, weaker, its windfield is much more spread out.

  9. Thanks TK! Two more trips to Rockaway Beach and we will finally have my parents house cleaned out after 47 years . It’s quite the process and I know you just recently went through it.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    Yesterday had a bit higher temp but no sun had the house feeling quite chilly. I finally turned the heat on.

    1. That’s really good making it to October 30th, I think we were a few weeks ago and in my car, who knows, a chilly evening back in late September ?? 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. I’m right there with you, but my wife needs it colder to turn on the heat, so, I add sweatshirts, blankets, heating blanket to get me through, lol

              1. I’m weird. Sometimes I get cold very easily and sometimes I don’t get cold at all. It all depends.

                Speaking of cold, I’ve been working with a Tee this morning, time to throw on the long sleeve jersey. 🙂 🙂

                1. We are a lot alike. I do the same. We’ve had colder days but I just couldn’t shake the chill yesterday

    1. Pretty common word, imho. Perhaps it’s just because I grew up knowing that word from a young age??????

    3. 4 is great and yes a strange word. I had all but one letter in the right spot in my fifth guess and it still took me a bit to figure what that letter was.

      1. I had 4 letters, 1 in correct position after guess 1
        Guess 2 provided me with 4 letters in the correct position, so it was just a matter of substituting letters until I got one that made sense And it just happened to be the word.

        Today my starting words worked out very well. Usually I am up
        SHIT CREEK WITHOUT A PADDLE!!!!

    1. It even snowed right to the coast in Marshfield. A northerly breeze is still off the ocean in eastern parts of town.

      We got a thick coating and had a little left, in the shady spots during trick or treating the following evening.

  19. I am getting texts from my family in southern NYC and Long island that the wind is really blowing there. Sign of things to come I am sure for the South Coast in a few hours.

    2. My son is on a flight landing at Logan in less than an hour. I’m glad that he gets in before the conditions get worse. As it was, the weather caused about an hour delay.

      According to FlightAware:

      Boston Logan Intl is experiencing delays
      – departure delays an average of 27 minutes
      – arrival delays for airborne aircraft an average of 46 minutes (and increasing)
      – inbound flights delayed at their origin an average of 2 hours 17 minutes

  20. Wind is REALLY kicking up here. It is RAINING leaves and drizzle!! Very wet drizzle!! Enough to make puddles.

  21. Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
    National Marine Sanctuary-

    Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
    out 20 nm-

    Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
    and Nantucket-

    Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
    to 20 nm South of Block Island-

    Nantucket Sound-

    …STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT
    SATURDAY…

    * WHAT…West winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas
    6 to 9 feet expected.

    * WHERE…Nantucket Sound.

    * WHEN…From 3 PM Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday.

    * IMPACTS…Storm force winds and hazardous seas will capsize or
    damage vessels and reduce visibility.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
    vessel for severe conditions.

  23. …FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT THIS
    AFTERNOON FOR BRONX, KINGS (BROOKLYN), NEW YORK (MANHATTAN), QUEENS
    AND SOUTH CENTRAL WESTCHESTER COUNTIES…

    At 340 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
    rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have
    fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 1.5 inches in 1 hour.
    Several NY mesonet sites in Brooklyn and Queens have observed brief
    5-minute rainfall rates of near one half inch. Additional rainfall
    amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash
    flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

    https://radar.weather.gov/station/KOKX/standard

  25. My son Is in the middle of the flood area as he is in Manhattan.
    He sent a video from the train ride from SW CT into NYC.
    Pouring BUCKETS!!!!

  26. Hoping folks here will vote for a young man we have known since …well forever. Sue’s son, Sam, as we know is a dedicated and talented member of his football team. There is a poll vote for the top Unsung Hero in South Shore high school football. A vote for Sam Laidlaw would sure be appreciated. I just learned about this. Polling closes today.

    https://www.patriotledger.com/story/sports/high-school/football/2025/10/29/vote-for-unsung-heroes-in-south-shore-high-school-football/86746519007/?fbclid=IwZnRzaANwqrhleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHirC2yKmourM1HzIdtpyzAPUUoFmN5g59EQWjPzhiPEM_enPyM4fu4DjlgQ__aem_qSBBhZd3aOHTLqXUk8ULXw#ggpmeaki5gopfi3ej9km9b50z7ubqqj

          1. Thank you so much! I know he is mine but this kid is something special. He is so humble that he didn’t even tell me this poll was published. He would do anything for his teammates and coaches.

  27. I am glad this rain is happening and not tomorrow evening for the trick or treaters. It will be a windy Halloween. Last year on Halloween I was handing out candy in shorts and a t shirt as it was warm.

      1. Vicki I was fortunate as a kid it never rained when I went out trick or treating. I remember plenty of chilly ones.

          1. It is going to be a windy Halloween this year. Wind Advisory up for parts of SNE. At least no snowstorm or Superstorm postponing Halloween as was the case in 2011 and 2012.

            1. It seemed more often than not it was chilly on Halloween as a kid. One year it rained. I got through it.

  29. Today/tonight feels more like Halloween. It’s probably the weather making the day seem “spooky”. I have to keep reminding myself the holiday is TOMORROW.

    Other than the wind, it should be near perfect for the trick-or-treaters. 🙂

    1. The wind along with the clouds and moonlight alternating will make Halloween feel much more like Halloween than a drizzly/rainy day, IMO. 🙂

  32. I have seen a few comments from the non mets on X about a fast start to winter coming in early December. We will see about that.

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