Saturday October 25 2025 Forecast (7:27AM)

97 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 25-29)

A rain-free but coolish final weekend of October will be produced by surface high pressure in Quebec and upper level low pressure lingering over New England. We’ll see some areas of cloudiness – a passing disturbance will produce one in northeastern MA and southeastern NH to start the day today before some diurnal cumulus / stratocumulus return later. Meanwhile a passing disturbance well to the south will toss a shield of high and mid level clouds across our region from west to east during tonight which exits early Sunday, but we’ll contend with additional diurnal cumulus / stratocumulus again on Sunday. By Monday, the high pressure area in Quebec migrates eastward toward Nova Scotia and upper level low pressure remains in place. Solar heating that day can be enough tip the balance that the diurnal clouds produce a few isolated showers, so that will be something to watch for. As this is going on, a large scale split flow pattern is in place and the northern jet stream will make a first attempt to phase with a jet stream further to the south, producing an offshore storm Tuesday, far enough at sea to our southeast to keep any rain away, but this will help keep a northeasterly air flow going. A second energy merger and resultant storm will take place over the southeastern US by Wednesday. This system will approach from the south late Wednesday, and while at day 5 the timing is not certain, the chance of rain can increase here from south to north by late that day or at night. Fine-tuning to come.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lows 36-43. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a shower mainly mid to late afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain late, mainly south. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, strongest coastal areas where higher gusts are possible.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

Low pressure is expected to track northward up the US East Coast and produce a wind/rain event here to start the period. The finer details of rainfall intensity, timing, wind direction and speed, and even temperature are to be determined by the low pressure area(s) ultimate track(s). I use the parenthesis there because this system may involve 2 low pressure areas that finally merge to one. Current thoughts are this system will lift northward by early October 31 and we’ll dry out but be breezy, salvaging the weather for “trick or treat” that evening. Still leaning toward fair weather November 1, unsettled weather November 2, with a return to fair weather November 3, but lower confidence on what goes on during that time frame. NOTE: Not ignoring the existence of TS Melissa in the Caribbean, forecast to eventually become a major hurricane and bring major to catastrophic impact to Jamaica, and major impact to Haiti, the D.R., eastern Cuba, the eastern Bahamas, and the Turks & Caicos Islands in the days ahead. This system will not be a factor in our weather as it is very likely to move northeastward into the open Atlantic after impacting those areas.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

Low pressure may bring a period of wet weather from sometime late November 4 to early November 6. Low confidence forecast. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

97 thoughts on “Saturday October 25 2025 Forecast (7:27AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK

    41 here this morning

    Ocean: 57 (Boston bouy)

    Wordle: 6. I WAS hopelessly lost.

            1. You are all good sports. I love that no one puts anyone down for missing the word or taking more guesses. I really think that is something special!

              2. I agree completely. It’s so much more fun when we share our daily adventure, no matter the result!

      1. Nice!
        Today was a tough one even though the word was common enough. It was just the letters involved.

  8. Is there any chance the upcoming week’s storm does not
    materialize, at least not up here. Models not yet totally consistent.

    1. If this was winter, it would be an inland runner, so no chance for snow anyway.

      Now that we’re heading into the winter season, I start thinking, “what if”… ❄️

        1. Well, one of the tv Mets showed it as an inland runner. Of course this time of year, it doesn’t really matter. RAIN is RAIN.

  9. Southern New England Weather Conference today.

    Cindy is MC. We had a nice chat in the coffee line. Talked to several others so far, well known and behind the scenes. Great attendance this year!

    3. Excellent choice of MC !

      I’m sure/hope there are some good topic talks.

      I have to get back to one of those.

    2. Awesome. Thank you.

      I’m watching hallmarks the most wonderful time of year. Yes hallmark but with Henry Winkler and I’m a huge fan of his.

  11. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.png

    It’s going to be near or below avg in the northeast, maybe 40s but well above avg in Canada, maybe 20s and 30s

    Where are the days where it was 55F in mid November in New England, but behind the arctic front, it was already 0F in Canada and 5-10F in International Falls, MN

    Common pattern last few cool seasons, much milder at the high latitudes, slightly cooler at the mid latitudes and to get snow, with very marginal cool air in the boundary layer, your always depending on dynamics.

    This to me is a prime example of a warming planet.

    And yes, I get that November isn’t close to being in winter 🙂

    1. I just don’t like the “EARLY” signs for this upcoming Winter.
      Of course, it is not even close to Winter, but still to me it is just not looking all that great if one loves Snow and Cold.

      And add to that, the ocean temperature is running warmer
      than average.

      Today is 10/25 and I do NOT know the exact average for Boston Buoy, I can say that I remember distinctly that the temperature on 10/29/2011, the day of the big October snow storm, that is was 52. (Don’t even know if 52 is average, just a reference point). Still 4 days until 10/29, so lets say the ocean temp drops another degree by then with the coolness upon us, then it still would be 4 degrees ABOVE that point and should it drop 2 degrees by then, 3 degrees above.
      For reference, 2011-2012 Winter was disgustingly MEAGER in the snow department IF I remember correctly.

      So, I am NOT likely the ocean factor moving into Winter PLUS all the other signs. Dynamics isn’t going to help much early on with the ocean that warm, unless we get a system off shore with NNE to NNW winds and loads of precip to the NW of the center. It happens, but not all that often.

      In short, I am currently pessimistic about this upcoming Winter. There is still time for some things to change, just NOT liking it so far.

          1. If this Winter is a bust, it will make 4 in a row!!!
            I do NOT like that one bit. An occasional no snow year, fine, but 4 in a row! BRUTAL!!!!

            I know I know, it hasn’t happened yet. Just saying IF it is a bust.

              1. Four cool summers in a row would mean more money in everybody’s wallet as people would not have to run the AC as much.

  12. I believe so far this decade only one above normal winter for snowfall for Boston which I believe was 21-22 winter. That was thanks to big snowstorm in January of that winter.

  13. Thanks TK. Nippy today here at the softball field with the breeze, especially when the sun goes behind the clouds.

    Josh Morgerman just landed in Montego Bay.

  15. Snow killers for SNE: ❄️

    1. Accumulating snow in October (see 2011)
    2. Warmer than average November

    I would say a “colder” than average November will help for a snowier winter. Jmo.

    Heck, it probably can’t hurt. 😉

  16. When Boston had the only above normal snowfall for a winter this decade in 2021-2022 I believe there was measurable snow for a White Halloween.

  19. Unfortunately, Kingston Jamaica is on the eastern third of Jamaica. Looking at the 18z tracks, looks like the center could go right over Kingston.

      1. Frightening!!!!
        NOT sure I have seen that deep pink/magenta on these loops. Can’t imagine the rainfall rates underneath that!!!

        1. 12z model consensus is About 24 inches of rain for Eastern Jamaica. Yikes! Not to mention the wind to go with that. There is also some higher terrain that will just wri g out copious amounts of rain!!

  21. WHW got a lot of new followers today including several members of Boston media.

    Great conference today!

    2. Did Meditech treat you well?
      Hope they made you all feel very welcome! Great auditorium for a conference.
      Happy it was a great conference.

  22. TK, silly question.

    Is there any way word press could list visitors to the blog who do not post? Even if not identification.

    Perhaps every so many hours, just post something like.

    25 visitors to the blog in the past 4 hours, 12 who posted
    or some such thing?

    thanks

    1. We can see it on the operational side, but there’s no way for regular users to see it.

      This is how I know there are thousands of readers on a regular basis. The audience is far larger than the amount of people who post comments.

    1. That CDO, symmetric in shape and made up of tall tall thunderstorms is being developed.

      This is going to be devastating for the part of Jamaica that has the core track over it. I don’t know if that will be the whole island, but it’s probably going to be more than half of the island.

      1. It’s very worrisome. I hope that there is still room for slight adjustments, and our friends that we have made there over the years and also Sue’s family stay safe. Praying for all in Jamaica, including the tourists that couldn’t get back home.

    1. Looks like a monster. I saw Eric say it would go on land this weekend and missed timing here.

      Is it expected to go on shore tomorrow?

Comments are closed.