Friday October 24 2025 Forecast (6:45AM)

54 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 24-28)

Upper level low pressure that sits over our area now will drift east but be “replaced” by another one over the weekend into the beginning of next week. This keeps us from having days that are very warm, and also keeps days from being totally sunny, as the pool of cold air aloft triggers cloud development. There should be enough instability for isolated to scattered showers this afternoon and again during Monday, while during the weekend the clouds will be mainly of the “fair weather” variety, though more abundant Saturday than Sunday. When we get to Tuesday, you’ll get your first hint of how I think next week’s much-talked-about storm threat is going to go, because I suspect we’ll see increasing high cloudiness from the south ahead of a developing low pressure system down the coast. We may still see some lower cloud pop-ups due to lingering chilly air aloft as well, but at this point I expect Tuesday to be a rain-free day. (More on the storm threat in the next section, but first the detailed forecast for the next five days…)

TODAY: Sunshine to start then a sun/cloud blend with isolated to scattered afternoon showers mainly from the I-90 belt northward. Highs 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds early, then they dissipate. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY: Early full sun, then lots of clouds limiting the sun midday on. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds decrease again. Lows 36-43. Wind NW to N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 53-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 36-43. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: High clouds filter the sun while diurnal clouds pop-up and may produce a few rain showers including the chance of small hail. Highs 55-62. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lows 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds and limited sun. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

Putting aside all the outside influences, all the “model variability” etc., getting right to how I think next week’s “interesting” pattern evolves. First, I suspect that after causing some major rain and wind in Jamaica and eventually eastern Cuba, Hurricane Melissa will make a beeline for the open Atlantic and be far from a potential factor in East Coast (including New England) weather. What we watch for our area is the evolution of a storm system along the East Coast associated with a blocking pattern – high pressure eastern Canada, low pressure US Northeast and Mid Atlantic. I think the evolution of this system is quick, and we will be watching for impact from rain and wind in our area to start this period (Wed Oct 29), with a maturing / filling low pressure area causing lingering showers the next day (Thu Oct 30) and lifting north of the region by Halloween (Fri Oct 31) at which time we’d be in a drier westerly air flow with fair but breezy weather. With lower confidence I lean toward a mixed first weekend of November on the first 2 days of the month with fair weather Saturday and unsettled weather Sunday. More on that in time…

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

Lower than average confidence forecast leans toward a mid period precipitation threat and fair weather at the start and end of the period with temperatures generally seasonable to a bit cooler than average.

54 thoughts on “Friday October 24 2025 Forecast (6:45AM)”

  1. Thanks TK! Looks like an interesting week – will be the 13th anniversary of Sandy next Weds. My family lived through that in Rockaway Beach, NY and were never really the same after.

  4. Thanks TK !

    Excellent discussion as always and I particularly enjoyed your medium range discussion/thoughts.

    1. I “think” I was aware of that word, but looked it up to be sure.
      You all did great to get it in anything less than 6. I didn’t have a clue, until after the 5th guess. Poor starting words today.

      I get completely demoralized when the starting words reveal little or worse yet, nothing!!! I need something to go on….

    2. I know the word but agree with the huh? Not sure why they don’t recirculate words from the start

        1. Found this

          AI Overview
          A good Wordle score is generally considered to be 3 or 4 guesses, with an average score being around 4.1 guesses. A score of 3 is excellent and often requires skillful play, while 4 is a solid, respectable score for most players. Scores above 4 are still good but are closer to the average, and a perfect score of 1 is extremely rare and typically a result of luck.
          Score Range

          Interpretation
          1–2 guesses

          Extremely lucky or highly skilled; rare and not typical.
          3 guesses

          Excellent; requires skill and a good strategy.
          4 guesses

          Good and respectable; considered average for skilled players.
          5 guesses

          Okay; a common score for most players.
          6 guesses

          Subpar; a player may have had difficulty or been unlucky.
          What makes a score good?

          Efficiency: Scoring in 3 or 4 guesses shows efficiency and good strategy.

          Consistency: While a 1 or 2 is impressive, a consistently good score over time is more valuable than a lucky guess on a single day.
          Context: The difficulty of the puzzle can vary, so what is a good score one day might be less so on another.

          Ultimately, the goal is to solve the puzzle, so any score is good as long as you are enjoying the game.

        2. Mine did well this time. But it is a crap shoot. A friend had nothing for his his second word and still managed to get three. Sometimes I feel as if I do better with fewer letters in my first two which I know sounds backwards

  11. Thanks TK.

    As I posted last night, I fear a complete disaster is in the making for Jamaica. Really bad looking track with a major hurricane moving very slowly just south, then west of the island…

    Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    5h
    Tropical Storm Melissa will become a powerful hurricane in the coming days. The impacts to Jamaica could be catastrophic with strong wind, surge, flooding, and mudslides.

    https://x.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1981679841939202142

  15. It doesn’t bring Melissa near us, but I do think the Euro AI isn’t terribly far from the GDPS in keeping Melissa modestly closer to the coastline and I find that interesting.

    The Euro AI has a strong mid latitude low affecting us.

    I think the 12z GFS is really out to lunch.

  16. In and out of sun showers driving east on the Pike to pick up my son in Waltham. There’s got to be a rainbow somewhere…

  18. Thanks TK.

    Fully agree with your thoughts on Melissa, no factor for the East Coast outside of swells. It’s not a totally dissimilar setup to Sandy in 2012, but enough things aligned differently that we won’t see the sort of “perfect” trough capture that directed Sandy at the East Coast.

    The potential for one of the deadliest and most destructive hurricanes in Atlantic history is on the table in the Caribbean though, especially Jamaica. Catastrophic impacts are becoming near certain.

    2. It’s not unusual to see things like that at that range on operational guidance. That won’t verify as depicted.

  21. As noted previously, today would present a better chance than yesterday at having showers reach the WHW forecast area. There have been a few roaming the landscape so far.

  22. While still major, the ECMWF’s scenario for Jamaica regarding Melissa is not as extreme as some outlined potentials. It’s a better-case scenario, other than having the westward movement start sooner, last longer, and take the core around the southern and western sides of Jamaica. That’s still validly possible.

  23. Little bit of sleet mixed in with the lake-effect rain showers in western NY despite temperatures in the mid 40s.

  28. High of 55 today and already at 37 (12;10). Forecast verifying. No surprise but excellent still, TK

  29. Thanks TK.

    Yes impact looks terrible for Jamaica, hoping that the models are missing something. But as TK eluded to this maybe a small shift that can have big impacts on us

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