Thursday October 23 2025 Forecast (7:18AM)

77 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 23-27)

Upper level low pressure drifts across the Northeast through Friday then ambles eastward this weekend as high pressure builds in. This is unchanged from yesterday’s outlook. We’ll see diurnal cloud development daily. Disturbances moving around the upper low will trigger rain showers that should stay mostly well north and west of Boston later today but are possible anywhere mainly north of I-90 later Friday. The weekend will not have the rain shower threat due to the building in of the high pressure area. Early next week, we’ll be closely eyeing a pattern of high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. I’m not going to get into all the different “scenarios” which can really just be read as inconsistent model runs. It’s the overall pattern that matters and the details will present themselves closer to that time. For now, I expect Monday will not see impact from low pressure to our south, which should be well south, but a lobe of upper level energy from the north which can trigger a few afternoon showers of rain and even some small hail (yes day 5 is risky to forecast hail but I see the potential set-up there – something to watch).

TODAY: Sun / cloud intervals. A stray shower may reach southwestern NH and north central MA late. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a rain shower in the afternoon, especially north of I-90. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds dissipate Lows 36-43. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloud/sun mix. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 36-43. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: High clouds filter the sun while diurnal clouds pop-up and may produce a few rain showers including the chance of small hail. Highs 55-62. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 28- NOVEMBER 1)

Watching the pattern of low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north for which, if any, storm systems get far enough north to impact our region. More detail to come.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

Same pattern from previous period remains in place to start this one, then eases up with a more tranquil look, but low confidence forecast. More to come.

77 thoughts on “Thursday October 23 2025 Forecast (7:18AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    47 here

    Ocean temp: 57 (Boston bouy)

    Canadian has joined the others in taking Melissa well out into the Atlantic as a fish storm.

    Wordle: 5

  2. Thanks TK !

    Looks like the mid latitudes may provide quite a system somewhere on the east coast, independent of Melissa, in a week or so.

  4. Wordle in 3.

    Hope next week’s potential doesn’t come into fruition. Halloween is big at my house.

  5. I’m testing pasting my result directly here on my phone. It looks fine as I see it here, but I have my doubts.

    Wordle 1,587 4/6*

    ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
    ⬛⬛⬛⬛
    ⬛⬛

      1. Good job. Tom and I both had a chance at 4, but didn’t like our word choice for 4, thus we got it in 5.

  6. Quite a variance for TS Melissa’s track among the AI model ensembles. A couple of them make it look like we would get hit in some way and a couple of others take Melissa OTS. I am betting that Melissa won’t last all that long in any case.

    (One of the AI model ensembles … FNV3 from Google’s DeepMind has a track that looks like it crosses the Boston Common. 🙂 🙂 🙂 )

    2. You mean this

      https://www.weathernerds.org/models/fnv3.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=SST_Anomaly_Surface&initcycle=determine&initfhour=204&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=685&initrange=50.000000000000:258.000000000000:0:350.000000000000&initcx1=0&initcy1=0&initcx2=0&initcy2=0&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=1&initsoundy=1&initloop=False&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=360&initlint=6&initol1=SST_Anomaly_Surface&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=Off&inithgwys=Off&inittracks=Off&initlows=On&initlatlon=Off

      to this

      https://www.weathernerds.org/models/fnv3.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=SST_Anomaly_Surface&initcycle=determine&initfhour=210&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=685&initrange=50.000000000000:258.000000000000:0:350.000000000000&initcx1=0&initcy1=0&initcx2=0&initcy2=0&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=1&initsoundy=1&initloop=False&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=360&initlint=6&initol1=SST_Anomaly_Surface&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=Off&inithgwys=Off&inittracks=Off&initlows=On&initlatlon=Off

  11. Up to 48 from a 38 low.

    TK did your tech person have any ideas on allowing URLs to break rather than throw alignment off. It seems to Just be with iPhones but it is new as I’ve always used my phone.

        1. ha ha ha Love it. Even looking at this one, it certainly looks like a FISH STORM. Almost period, end of discussion.

          But even still, I continue to watch. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        2. It’s already been posted on social media, including the declaration that it may involve a snowstorm for New England.

          1. I honestly fault the user for using less than legitimate sources. It’s really quite easy to do your due diligence.

  13. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KBUF&hours=72

    1.29 inches of lake effect rain at the greater Buffalo ob yesterday.

    I understand a colder atmosphere wouldn’t necessarily produce that kind of QPF, but even if you cut it in half to around .65, but then have ratios of 30:1 in polar or arctic air, one can see why in localized areas, those lake effect snow bands can pile up crazy snow totals.

  15. Re: Weather in the twittersphere …..

    I don’t know why, my facebook account gets these weather twitter blogs or whatever and one of them is so excited about a long range chilly, dry blast saying this is a great sign for winter.

    And I just laugh.

    Anyone who loves snow, I am always skeptical about their winter weather outlook, because their bias or love of snow just over-powers any chance at them not being swayed to forecast snow and cold.

    I enjoy snow when it comes, a lot, but I don’t love it anymore and I can do without if it doesn’t show up, so I don’t feel like I am fighting that bias. Not that it makes my winter prediction any good.

    1. Yes, there’s a lot of bias in the `reporting.’

      I love cold and snow. I could do with MUCH more of it. But I try not to get my hopes up listening or watching the hypsters. I’ve been sorely disappointed in the past.

      I lower my expectations. If it’s anything more than, say, 20 inches of snow this season and a few sustained cold outbreaks, I’ll be content. In fact, even if it didn’t much snow at all but we had perhaps my favorite weather type of sunny, cold days for long stretches, I’d be content.

      1. We’ll probably be lucky to get 20 inches. I fear another bust year, but I still hope for more. Not ready to make my prediction, but Not liking what I see so far. 🙂

    2. I’ll take every inch and hope for more.

      On Twitter, I check who is following me and block anyone I don’t know. My FB block list may break records. Don’t want to read nonsense anywhere

    3. The usual suspects do the same thing every autumn, and also think that winter starts at Halloween.

      Then you have the crew finding extreme outliers in hurricane guidance and claiming that Melissa will most certainly break records and become the first CAT 6 hurricane. Like the dozens of other CAT 6 hurricanes we were going to have.

      Here’s the thing. There’s NO category 6, nor will there ever be. CAT 5 is the maximum.

  16. Vicki .. not a lot of idea about what is going on with the format but it may be a set of updates that needs to be done, probably from here. That can be taken care of by this weekend hopefully!

      1. Real meteorology, real write-ups. That’s what we do. That’s how we learned. We’re true to it. We were taught the correct way by great mentors.

  19. Storm Benjamin has been wreaking havoc across Northwestern Europe. These autumnal and winter storms are mostly wind events in many places. Though some rain falls, precipitation is not the most important feature of these gales.

  20. Today the shower activity stayed west and north, which was expected. Tomorrow, the activity has a slightly better chance of making it into the WHW forecast area.

    Also, I sincerely wish media wasn’t showing model output for October 30 today. Ugh.

  21. In spite of all the vigorous shear, the center of Melissa still has a pressure of 1,002 mb.

    Watch out if the shear relaxes, given the heat content available in the ocean just south and southwest of Jamaica.

  22. Jeopardy has a wind topic. Thanks to all I learned from TK and every one here I managed to get all

  23. Thank you TK!

    Wordle: 4

    TK, may I ask your thoughts on Jamaica as far as Melissa is concerned. My husband just got home from there after attending his aunt’s funeral and I am getting very worried for our family there.

    1. Prayers for your family Sue. And my deepest sympathy to your husband and your family for your loss.

    2. Keeping my fingers crossed the forecast changes Sue. We have been there so many times, and developed relationships with many of the people that work at the resort we usually go to and keep in touch with them. A major hurricane for multiple days would be devastating to the island.

      1. Which resort do you go to? We were just there in August and stayed at the Iberostar Rose Hall Suites near Montego Bay. Really enjoyed it.

        Glad we went when we did as I fear there will be a fair amount of damage throughout the island. Not to mention Avelo just announced they are discontinuing the direct flight from BDL to Montego Bay that we took.

        1. We started there in 2009 and loved that resort. We always stay at the Royalton Blue Waters now. We love Jamaica.

    3. It’s definitely concerning having a quasi-stationary intensifying hurricane in close proximity, I won’t lie.

      It’s going to come down to the specific path and where it takes the storm core.

  24. It is pretty incredible how Melissa looks literally stuck in the Caribbean. Can’t imagine what those waves will look like in a few days

  25. Didn’t see anyone comment on this earlier in the week either but pretty incredible footage out of France from a tornado that hit the northern suburbs of Paris on Monday. You don’t see this over there too often:

    https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1980327510102671390?s=46&t=cAAA4iBELkUhqYWBAiwAsw

    https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1980391280023839060?s=46&t=cAAA4iBELkUhqYWBAiwAsw

    https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1980370819177201891?s=46&t=cAAA4iBELkUhqYWBAiwAsw

    1. How many times has Judah predicted a snowy winter only ending up to be a dud? This might be a good thing for us for a change.

      1. He’s a “presenter” at the 2025 SNE Weather Conference tomorrow. I put that in quotes because we’ll be shown a video of his winter outlook. I guess he didn’t wanna stop by and see us. 😉

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