Wednesday October 22 2025 Forecast (6:21AM)

79 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 22-26)

A broad trough / upper low dominates the Great Lakes and Northeast and will continue to do so through Friday. A low pressure area and frontal system rotating around this upper low brings our area another slug of rainfall this morning, and maybe a leftover shower this afternoon in what will otherwise turn out to be a mild and breezy day. A cooling trend sets in gradually over the next few days following this. Pop-up showers associated with the upper low should stay mainly west and north of our region Thursday, though one can make it into the hills of southwestern NH and possibly north central MA by late in the afternoon. Friday’s shower chance is slightly greater in the region, especially in the afternoon and north of I-90, but coverage will be limited to generally isolated to scattered. Canadian high pressure builds in with fair, cool weather this weekend as the upper low slides off to the east, but remains close enough to trigger the development of diurnal clouds both weekend days.

TODAY: Cloudy through mid morning with widespread showers, some heavy. Sun/cloud mix late morning on with a slight chance of a passing shower this afternoon, especially west and north of Boston. Highs 61-68. Wind S 5-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH, shifting to SW.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH,.

THURSDAY: Sun / cloud intervals. A stray shower may reach southwestern NH and north central MA late. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a rain shower in the afternoon, especially north of I-90. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds dissipate Lows 36-43. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloud/sun mix. Highs 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 27-31)

A lot of “uncertainty” triggered mostly by varying model output solutions. While my forecast is not high confidence for these final 5 days of October, including Halloween, my leaning based on the pattern is for high pressure to be more dominant and hold low pressure mainly off to the south with a dry-leaning outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

Trend for this period is for a period of unsettled weather around the first weekend of November, then fair, cooler weather after that, but details are quite uncertain and forecast confidence remains low at this point. Monitoring guidance trends and overall pattern.

79 thoughts on “Wednesday October 22 2025 Forecast (6:21AM)”

  1. Thanks, TK.

    “Slug of rainfall “ is a great description of what woke me up a few minutes ago!

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    55 here after low of 51

    Ocean temp: 57 (Boston bouy)

    Wordle; 5

      1. I had valid words for guesses 3 & 4 and thought I had it each time. Unfortunately, Wordle did NOT agree with my words. Finally stuck in the correct word on guess 5. Ugh!

        1. Ugh – it was a battle, but I got it in six.

          I never had any yellow squares, just kept guessing wrong!

      1. I hate it when that happens. You played well, just got unlucky.

        Same thing happened for me, except I was lucky enough to get it on guess 5.

        Strange game. I never thought my 5 would be one of the better scores today. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. SClarke, how do you get that display with the yellows and greens but NOT showing the letters. I have not come across that option as I would like to share mine. thanks

            1. Ok, got it. Thanks.

              Can’t share right now, as it is on my phone and for some reason, my computer is not seeing it now.

              I’ll have to figure that out.

              Many thanks

        2. Fascinating. I do enjoy the game even when frustrating. Playing with others makes it that much more special.

      1. Yes, Halloween. 9 days out and this is one model. The others
        take this well out into the Atlantic. 🙂

  9. Thanks, TK.

    Only a small amount of rain fell where I am: A couple of showers. Sun’s been out for the past 20 minutes.

  12. Thanks, TK!

    Two batches of showers have come through with the sun making an appearance in between.

    A very tough loss for the Bs last night against the Panthers. I thought they had a solid third period. I feel sorry for the defenseman who had the rebound ricochet off his skate and past Swayman. It’s like an own goal in soccer. It was an emotional night at the Garden with Marchand’s return.

  13. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=car&band=09&length=24

    Some changes from yesterday for Melissa.

    I think one can see some westerly shear still in place

    But, the center is not as displaced from the convection as it was yesterday.

    Might be a more impressive mid level circulation than the low level one and my guess is with the shear, they cant be vertically aligned.

    Im with the hurricane models and euro on this as of now.

    A quick picking up and race to the northeast into the Atlantic is not very likely. Something meandering for a while in the Caribbean is more likely.

    2. Can see, slowly, comparing the 00z to the 12z GFS, that the GFS is slowing the northeast escape of Melissa.

      It will probably take a few more runs to get to the likely meandering scenario in the Caribbean.

  14. Weather Forecast Accuracy. I have seen the following from NOAA more than once. Not sure what goes into measuring “accuracy.”

    Accuracy by Forecast Length

    Short-term (1-3 days): Forecasts are very accurate, with a 3-day forecast being as accurate as a 1-day forecast was decades ago.

    Mid-term (5 days): Approximately 90% accurate.

    Mid-term (7 days): Approximately 80% accurate.

    Long-term (10 days): Only about 50% accurate.

    Extended long-term: Beyond 10 days, forecasts become increasingly speculative and are often presented as probabilities rather than exact predictions.

  19. The meandering scenario of Melissa keeps it in the Caribbean up to or past 120 hrs (5 days) before it even could be directed to a more northern latitude.

    So, probably need the correct 500 mb flow over the continental US at hr 168 or later and you know how that goes.

    Things that will effect that are probably on the other side of the globe and need 96 hrs to get over towards Alaska’s longitude.

    So, confident in a non captured system in the Caribbean for a while and then …………. it will be maybe next later Sunday or early Monday before we gain confidence in what it does next.

      1. I would but at the same time I wouldn’t for obvious reasons. Same ones you would be concerned about.

    1. Sometimes I paste the results into an email to myself to get it from my phone to my computer.

      1. Yup, that would work. I had a new cable that came with a new charger. Works great with the charger, but this is the 1st time I tried accessing data on the phone and my computer would not see it. I grabbed another cable I had and it worked just fine. Weird.

        Anyhow, once it is on my phone I can uploaded it directly to
        https://imgbb.com/ on my computer. Piece of cake.

        Anyhow, many thanks for the tip as often times I would like to post that.

      1. Yes, it’s rain. The atmosphere is too warm to support snow or even mix in that area.

        1. Yup, that is why I included map of current temperatures.
          Would have been way cool IF it were SNOW.

  23. TK’s feelings on the models’ ability to depict the medium range, given the uncertainty of a tropical cyclone far to the south having to possibly to probably factor into the mix. These are for OPERATIONAL runs only and just quick observations.

    ICON: Not bad (as far out as it goes) but maybe a bit TOO blocky.
    GFS / ECMWF: Believable but both slightly overdone with overall magnitude of things. In other words, a little dramatic.
    GDPS: BAHAHAHAHAHA. Nope.

    1. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 Why am I not surprised? 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      I’ll still post the GDPS solutions when it suits my fancy.

      Could you please tell us how you really feel about the GDPS.
      GLOBAL DETERIORATED PISSING SYSTEM

      1. Sometimes that model has a clue, but lately it’s been a pile of fly-infested, worm-infused, moldy, mildewed scraps of rotten potatoes.

        1. P.S. The previous rant was partially stolen from Opus the Penguin, of Bloom County.

        2. That description will work. I simply prefer to say
          Steaming pile of shit. Keep it simple. 🙂

        3. Hmmm, I found this:

          A reconstructed Opus-style rant
          (Opus, staring at a mound of unrecognizable sludge on his plate, pushes it away with a tearful sniffle.)
          Opus: Binkley, I can’t. I just… can’t. What have I done to deserve this? This… this monument of gastronomic despair? It is a mound of fly-infested, worm-infused, moldy, mildewed scraps of rotten potatoes! My soul curdles at the sight! Its aroma alone could peel paint from the very walls of this here Meadow.
          Opus: It’s an affront to all that is good and decent in this world! It’s the culinary equivalent of an unwanted phone call from a magazine salesman! It has the structural integrity of a discarded bath mat! And the flies… oh, the brazen, swaggering flies! They buzz with the careless abandon of political pundits in a television studio!
          Opus: I came into this day with such high hopes! A simple meal, a gentle sunset, a tasteful bow tie! But now, all I feel is the cold, worm-infused dread of a misspent lunch. All for a bowl of what I can only assume is a failed science experiment. And for what? So I can sit here, pondering the unfairness of the universe while my fanny makes that unsettling clanking noise again… Oh, bother.

          1. Opus is an awesome comic character.

            Some of the gang from that comic strip were animated in a one-time Christmas special that aired on TV in the late 1980s. I own it on DVD now. It’s one of the best ever made. When we get into the season I will talk more about it, and if it’s available on YouTube will share the link.

        4. It reminds me of this verse of “You’re a Mean One, Mr. Grinch”:

          You’re a rotter, Mr. Grinch.
          You’re the king of sinful sots!
          Your heart’s a dead tomato splotched
          With moldy purple spots, Mr. Grinch.
          Your soul is an appalling dump heap
          Overflowing with the most disgraceful assortment of deplorable rubbish imaginable
          Mangled up in tangled up knots!

          1. Some of the most beautiful lyrics of all time. 🙂
            And delivered eloquently by the one and only Thurl Ravenscroft on the original TV cartoon. 🙂

            He did many voices during his career, but what was his claim to fame in the TV commerical world?

  24. Interesting look for midweek. A rare system backing in from the water! Would love that in the winter.

    1. If that verifies.

      I think across the net too much emphasis is being put on operational runs that look dramatic.

      This is a very complex pattern with interaction of tropical, subtropical, and polar systems. Guidance is not going to resolve it the same way twice, nor will any of these solutions likely be the right one (some will be close to what ends up happening).

      And of course with so many illegitimate media sources out there now, we just get peppered with a lot of very useless information. The good info gets lost in the chaos and noise, unfortunately.

  25. Well I assume the 00z GFS is garbage as it looks to end time in NE. Copious amount of rain and a low sitting for
    Multiple days and battering the coast. Not sure what to make of it, I just know some of our biggest bombs are around this time.

Comments are closed.