Tuesday October 21 2025 Forecast (7:20AM)

61 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 21-25)

A broad trough / upper low dominates the Great Lakes and Northeast and will continue to do so for the next several days (through Friday). After yesterday’s showery episode, we get a break today between systems, the next one bringing another round of showers from pre-dawn to late morning Wednesday. The upper low triggers diurnal cloud development again Thursday, but I think shower activity will occur north of the WHW forecast area. It’s on Friday that one more front / trough will swing through with an afternoon shower threat. High pressure builds toward the region behind all this with fair weather by the start of the weekend on Saturday.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouds arrive west to east overnight with rain showers by daybreak. Lows 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 61-68. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH,.

THURSDAY: Sun / cloud intervals. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 26-30)

High pressure dominates with fair weather to finish the final weekend of the month on October 26. Outlook is more uncertain thereafter. High pressure dominating southeastern Canada and northern New England may be strong enough to hold 1 or 2 low pressure areas (October 27 & 30) to our south, but this is uncertain. Leaning dry for now.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Trend for this period is for a period of unsettled weather around the first weekend of November, but details are quite uncertain and forecast confidence is very low at this point. Monitoring guidance trends and overall pattern.

61 thoughts on “Tuesday October 21 2025 Forecast (7:20AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Overnight low and current temp here: 50

    Ocean temp: 57. (Boston bouy)

    Wordle: 3

        1. Thanks guys,
          How can I go from a fail to 3??? Strange game.
          I got 2 letters out of position on 1st guess.
          2nd guess yielded a letter in position and 1 additional out of position. So now I had 4 of the letters with the 1st letter in position. So I at least knew the 1st letter of the word and then 3 additional letters all scrambled. It just came to me.

      1. A lot of models have this further east. I am keeping an eye on Tomer Burg’s site which is improving rapidly. It features a number of ensembles including 4 AI ensembles. All point to OTS but still coming further west with each passing day.

        1. 🙂 🙂
          Will continue to watch.

          I really want a scenario where it gets close enough here with “enough” cold air around such that it SNOWS in
          parts of the area. Even more so than simulated by the Canadian. Not wishing for much, am I? 🙂 🙂 🙂

  6. Thanks, TK.

    Epic ALCS. Two teams that play baseball in an especially appealing manner. I love the fact that the Blue Jays, in particular, don’t strike out much and therefore make things happen by getting their bats on the ball. We saw both teams move runners over effectively. Good defense and smart baserunning, too. It’s an attractive brand of baseball. I wish the Red Sox would adopt a little more of this style, frankly. I’m a bit tired of poor fundamentals, lack of defense, and all the darn strikeouts.

    One has to feel sorry for Mariners’ fans. Still the only team in baseball not to have made it to the World Series. They have some really talented players on the roster. Rodriguez and Raleigh are right up there in terms of being game-changers.

    But perhaps the biggest game-changer left in baseball at this point is George Springer. He’s Mr. Clutch. Ortiz-like in some ways. He was that way with the Astros and continues to be with the Blue Jays.

    In my opinion, baseball and hockey are the two hardest sports to win a championship in. They also happen to be my two favorite sports so I am biased.

    1. All that and no mention of Vlad Guerrero, Jr, who certainly looked a lot like David Ortiz so far this postseason? I’ve loved Vladdy since his days as a New Hampshire Fisher Cat (and his HOF Dad was also a favorite of mine). I have a very good friend that is a Jays fan, and he’s on Cloud 9 right now.

      Hockey and baseball are my 2 favorites as well.

      1. Those are the 2 sports I played in any organized way.
        Sure Played pick up football and basketball, but baseball and hockey were my go to sports.

        Played hockey until age 40, then gave it up.

        Someone I grew up with played organized hockey until age 70!!

  8. Thanks TK
    The two times the Blue Jays made the World Series they didn’t lose. This Dodgers team is clicking on all cylinders. Dodgers in six is my prediction

  10. Thanks, TK!

    How’s the technology in the classroom today, Tom?

    I still chuckle at the time our school lost its wi-fi and the rumor around school among the kids was that we were going home early! 🙂

    1. Does it get captured and lifted out early or does a first trof miss it and then it takes its sweet time in the Caribbean?

      2. But that’s the thing ….

        from the 00z suite,

        the GFS solution is if it gets picked up early (way out to sea)

        The Canadian and Euro by pass the first trof, it gets picked up much later and both are a lot closer to the US coast line.

        1. Yup and I would go with the Euro and Canadian. I don’t trust the GFS as far as I could throw donald dump.

          We shall see what the 12Z runs have to say. Should be interesting.

  14. GFS and GDPS each hold serve against their 00z runs

    GFS has the system captured and racing way out to sea

    GDPS has it lagging in the Caribbean up through 162 hrs ……..

    1. the remaining in the Caribbean option doesn’t necessarily mean any US impact, but it does mean we need to see the 500 mb flow over the US at hr 200 and not at hr 96, during which there can be a huge change.

        1. HUGE difference. 12Z is MUCH flatter. Either this is going into the Western Gulf or it too will go OUT into the open Atlantic.

  16. Northern Hemisphere ACE is 380.
    Normal for this date is 438.
    Way below normal.

    Atlantic ACE is 98.
    Normal for this date is 110.
    Below normal.

    Melissa will add a few notches but nothing out of control as she will likely never become that intense. Melissa “hides” from a very hostile environment to its north which would kill it if it moved that way. It will be quasi-stationary for several days then eventually go somewhere TBD. Odds in the medium term would favor a weakening as it crosses the Caribbean then sling shots into the western Atlantic (well east of the US East Coast), but there’s a long way to go before this becomes a probable scenario.

  17. SAK, you’re right about Vlad Guerrero Jr. And my omission of him in my post was conspicuous, though not intentional. He’s been terrific throughout the entire post-season for the Jays. I think he’s had a grant total of 2 strikeouts (perhaps 3?) throughout the playoffs. That’s incredible given his production. He’s not exactly a slap hitter.

  19. ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy

    It’s an index that basically tells you how much energy the storms have produced by basin, by hemisphere, or on a global scale. It’s usually tracked season to season as a way to view how “active” or “inactive” it’s been. This year’s numbers indicate that both the northern hemisphere and the Atlantic are overall less active than the long term average.

    The top ten season for ACE for the Atlantic basin are…

    1. 1933
    2. 2005
    3. 1893
    4. 1926
    5. 1995
    6. 2004
    7. 2017
    8. 1950
    9. 1961
    10. 1998

    1. Like many systems this season, it will struggle for a good portion of its lifetime.

  21. Apologies as I cannot remember. Do we have folks here who live in or near Townsend.

    Just in case.

    We wanted to make our clients aware of an overly aggressive bear in Townsend, MA in the area of Canal St. This bear (assumed to be the same individual) has now killed 2 sheep and 2 goats, and today destroyed a barn door to attack the sheep inside the barn. The bear did not run away despite multiple humans being present and yelling aggressively.
    The Townsend PD, ACO, and EPO were all involved today and are aware of this bear’s presence.
    Please take extra precautions such as adding electric fence wire, keeping your small pets inside and putting away bird feeders.

      1. Yes, Townsend borders Lunenburg on the north. Canal St is near the Squannacook River State Wildlife Management Area. I’m not sure if the words “Wildlife Management” really apply in this situation!

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