Tuesday November 4 2025 Forecast (7:14AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

An active early November pattern has established, but it’s a fast-flow aloft with quick-moving systems. One such went by last night with a batch of showers and even some embedded thunderstorms around. Today’s weather behind that will be windy, chilly, but dry, with strongest wind through early afternoon before it starts to ease later in the day. But it stays breezy as the next system approaches and the wind flips from northwest to southwest Wednesday. Another quick-moving low will pass to our north Wednesday night with a round of rain showers, and Thursday’s weather will remind you much of today’s behind that one. And on we roll with another wind shift to southwest and a slightly milder day Friday, with the next low pressure system making a run into the region later Friday night and early Saturday with additional rain showers. Clearing may be a little stubborn or fail to occur on Saturday as the frontal boundary become parallel to the upper flow, the latter of which will be turning a bit more southwesterly. Currently, I do expect the rain threat to end, clearing or not, for that afternoon, but I’ll keep an eye on it as it wouldn’t take much additional bending of the upper air pattern to keep the rain shower threat going.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 49-56. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-50 MPH, strongest over higher elevations and in exposed coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 29-36. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.,

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely late night. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the morning. Highs 50-57. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

Next low pressure area brings a rain chance November 9 to end the weekend, favoring the afternoon. Watching for a quick shot of colder air early next week – mainly dry and windy but can’t rule out a passing shower of mixed precipitation or snow with the advance of the colder air. Temperatures moderate slightly but some unsettled weather opportunity returns later in the period with low pressure heading for the Great Lakes.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

Primary storm track into Great Lakes, but if systems are strong enough / far enough east we need to watch for redevelopment or even cut-off with any system. Too early to say which day(s) would be most likely to feature unsettled conditions, just the overall pattern to keep an eye on during this period with more detail to be figured out in time.

79 thoughts on “Tuesday November 4 2025 Forecast (7:14AM)”

    1. Up to 45 from a low of 41. Wind gusting into mid 30s.

      Nice 5 JPD. Waited till this am to finish and ended with a 4.

  4. Thanks TK !

    I’ve got the first round of waters in the caboose today, Wordle: 6

    Brief 10 minute wind whipped heavy rain shower last night.

    1. You and I must enjoy the caboose accommodations, even though I was upgraded today. Get em tomorrow!!!

      1. Nice accommodations there and nice job today.

        I do NOT like the rear of the train accommodations! Not at all!!!

  7. Question of the day does Boston end its streak of not having a 6 plus inch snowstorm this winter? If yes what month?
    I am going to say middle of January

    1. I wouldn’t even venture a guess. Could come sooner than you think, then again, it may not come at all again.

    1. I have company at 5. yes I wasted a guess using a letter
      that was NOT in the solution. Stupid as well, 🙂

  9. The appetizer before the main course when it comes to the wind.

    WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING…
    …HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
    MORNING…

    * WHAT…For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 10 to 20 mph with
    gusts up to 45 mph. For the High Wind Watch, west winds 25 to 35
    mph with gusts up to 65 mph possible.

    * WHERE…Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern,
    northeastern, southeastern, and western Massachusetts, and
    northern and southern Rhode Island.

    * WHEN…For the Wind Advisory, until 7 PM EST this evening. For the
    High Wind Watch, from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.

    * IMPACTS…Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
    Power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially
    for high profile vehicles. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured
    objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and some power outages may
    result.

  11. Worst of the wind looks to come in the wee hours of Thursday morning. With the winds being projected by the 12z HRRR power outages are in play.

  12. JpDave does that qualify as a HOLY CRAP BATMAN for that wind potential?
    Last week on Halloween in CT we peaked at about 6500 power outages with 30-40 mph wind gusts. The winds earlier Thursday morning will be stronger possibly leading to more power outages.

    1. No, I wouldn’t say so. I reserve that for big snow storms.
      Or a tornado or a really vicious thunderstorm.

      I reserve the right to change my mind during the event. 🙂 We’ll see how it goes. Often these events are over stated. We shall see.

  14. Thanks TK! My house felt like it was going through a strong car wash for about 30 seconds last night at 10:30 when that line came through.

    2. First ob is down to 957 mb on the latest ob

      Wind is decreased from hurricane force to tropical storm force or perhaps gale force since this is cold core.

      With that wind dropping a bit, the center of the low is getting close.

      1. must be taking on a major storm surge with that kind of pressure, which on its own, will raise the ocean level.

  17. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=850wh&rh=2025110412&fh=43&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=850wh&rh=2025110412&fh=45&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850wh&rh=2025110412&fh=45&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    I wish there were or I knew how to get pressure rises for this specific time frame in our general vicinity,

    Anyhow, here is the low level 850 mb jet from the 12z HRRR, NAM and GFS. The Euro time frame of every 6 hrs skips that 9z time frame.

    Anyway, cold air advection, rapidly deepening low, wonder how much of that will mix down ????

  19. Thanks Tk . Extremely windy here on the south shore today & had a pounding rainstorm after 10pm last night

  20. Hi everyone!

    PM check-in.

    Last night’s line was pretty potent, which shows the dynamics we had in play. Something similar is in the cards for tomorrow night. The winds were strong today behind last night’s system, and look like they’ll be even stronger behind the next one. Damaging gusts are becoming quite likely starting about 11 p.m. Wednesday until about sunrise Thursday. I’d expect power outages to be scattered around the region. I’ll expand on this more with tomorrow’s update.

    Looking ahead, not much change to the thought process going toward, into, and through the weekend, and into early next week. I am of the opinion that the general guidance is overdone for the cold shot on Tuesday, and while it will be “significant”, we won’t be breaking any records.

    That’s it for now!

      1. Hi Temps in the 40s for November is NOT unusual in the slightest, so why do people HYPE this stuff? (NOT HERE!!!).

        1. Yep. Temps will be below normal. Sometimes they’re above. Sometimes they’re near. Kind of funny how that works.

          I saw a post that said “winter will begin early next week”.

          No, no it won’t. We’ll have a mid autumn shot of chilly air next week. The mid point of autumn occurs on Friday November 7.

  22. Thanks, TK!

    I found this post from TJ DelSanto from Providence WPRI-Channel 12 about last night’s storms:

    Update to Monday evening’s weather: while there was rotation and debris being lofted into the air, we did not receive any reports of significant damage in Barrington or Swansea (I went there myself to look). So, the National Weather Service says, and I concur, that this can’t be labeled a tornado at this time. Instead it is being labeled as a gustnado, which is different from a tornado. There were likely a lot of leaves and small branches being lofted into the air Monday evening. That would have been cool to see in the daytime!

    Here’s the radar imprint from Channel 12 from Monday, 10 pm:

    https://imgur.com/a/dMGW7e2

        1. The article I posted, from August, was about “the Vulcan USSF-106 rocket, launched by United Launch Alliance in Cape Canaveral, Florida, on behalf of the U.S. Space Force.”

            1. I just saw a very similar photo online from Harvard, MA. The first answer was that it was a comet! 🙂

              It was good to see someone follow up with the correct answer.

    1. I don’t think they really need to do anything.

      I mean, they’re 7-2. Yet people seem to think the team is “broken” somehow. Puzzling.

        1. That’s when it’s time for other players to step up. And those guys will be back.

          Fact remains: 7-2. They are literally the best team in the NFL through Week 9 (tied with 2 other teams). Why are we trying to fix something that’s not broken?

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