Monday November 17 2025 Forecast (6:57AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

The Greenland Block that has been the main driver of our weather pattern lately is going to dissolve this week, but it won’t happen all at once. It remains strong enough to hold in place a gusty breeze and chilly weather between low pressure in southeastern Canada and an area of high pressure approaching from the west through Tuesday. It gives way a bit more by midweek, but at that time we’ll have high pressure building right over our region, which will shunt a small storm system south of the region – out to sea. During Thursday and Friday, the high pressure area that sat near Greenland will finally drift eastward across the far northern Atlantic and open up the avenue for the next low pressure area to cut through the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada. This will happen on Friday, when we have our next chance of wet weather in the form of rain showers, with temperatures a bit milder than they will be early in the week due to an influx of Pacific air moving across the northern US and arriving here. Regarding the Friday wet weather threat, there has been some disagreement among the various computer models as to just how much rain will take place. At the present time, I am leaning toward a fairly light and short-lived event due to the ability for low pressure to move more quickly along a newly configured jet stream, and not much ability to pick up moisture from the south on its journey. It being several days away, I’ll watch trends here for both precipitation amounts and timing and update through the week.

TODAY: A sun/cloud mix with a slight chance of a brief passing snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH, strongest over Cape Cod and higher elevation locations.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 25-32, except 30-37 Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusting around 20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts around 25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30 except 28-35 coastal areas and urban centers. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH diminishing and becoming variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 21-28 interior valleys to 25-32 elsewhere. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: A sun/cloud mix. Highs 47-54. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

During this period we have a Pacific flow pattern without blocking. What I expect is that a follow-up low pressure on the front that goes by the day before will pass south of our region to start the weekend on November 22, so a dry, breezy, and seasonable outlook for that day, with fair weather into Sunday as well as a weak area of high pressure moves over the region. With only moderate confidence at best I forecast the next low pressure to ride our way from the west southwest about November 24 with a milder pattern in place, so a rain chance for that time. Behind that system should come a return to drier and slightly cooler weather toward the middle of next week during the busy pre-Thanksgiving travel period, which if correct would be good news for this area.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

This period of time, starting with Thanksgiving Day on November 27 and leading up to when we flip the calendar from November to December, is rather tricky. No doubt you’ve heard chatter on social media and some news outlets about a potential pattern change to allow colder air to spill into the country as the polar vortex undergoes a disruption. These disruptions are quite hard to pin down for both timing and just how the break-down will configure itself – troughs vs. ridges, quasi-stationary vs. progressive pattern. This pattern shift may begin to take place during this period, but may be slower than a lot of guidance suggests, so for the time-being I will continue to forecast a storm track into the Great Lakes, with one such system doing just that at some point during this period, with milder weather ahead of it and a cooler shot of air behind it. No other detail is possible at this time, but it’s something I’ll track closely as we head into late November.

52 thoughts on “Monday November 17 2025 Forecast (6:57AM)”

    2. Awesome Sue. You may be driving the train again today. Great work to JPD and Tom also. . I’m in the dining car with 4

  9. Thanks, TK.

    I appreciate this blog so much.

    Just 7 to 10 days ago, I was reading weather ‘predictions’ in the hyposphere about a “very” cold last week of November in the Northeast and a “December to remember” in terms if cold and snow. Well, as is almost always the case, it’s mostly hype and click bait. The last week of November will likely be relatively mild here. My guess is that December won’t be especially cold or snowy. Time will tell. But I am so tired of the hype machine, often couched in sophisticated meteorological terminology which makes it seem plausible.

    1. Your spot on Joshua !

      I think a lot of those twitter /facebook world forecasters, not even taking into account their actual forecasting ability, their love of cold and snow clouds their reasoning.

      With TK, we have a top level meteorologist AND, he always says he loves all kinds of weather, so there’s no forecasting bias to try to create snow opportunities, where they don’t exist.

  10. I do think, if a SSW event takes place, then a general statement of expect some part of the country to experience below to well below avg temps and thus an opportunity to achieve above and snowfall.

    I don’t think we’ll be flooded with pacific air across the whole country.

    Now, how that sets up is the unknown.

    Maybe the northeast is always in the warm sectors of inside runners, always warm sectoring with rain followed by very modified versions of polar air.

    Could be a mix of both, an inside runner and then days later, a colder coastal system.

    But, I do feel increased confidence the continental US will have a colder December compared to the last few.

  11. I got Wordle in 3.

    Is there room for one more in the locomotive control room?Maybe someone will report in with a 1 or 2 and the problem will be solved.

  12. Thanks TK! We finally finished cleaning out my father’s house of 47 years this weekend. What a process. At the same time just down the road was a funeral for fallen FDNY firefighter Pat Brady who died of a heat attack while fighting a fire in Brooklyn at the age of 42. Incredibly heavy day on the Rockaway peninsula but the salute provided for him was unlike any other – 20,000 firefighters and citizens in attendance for what was a three hour funeral (held at the local church where I grew up). I will share the link of procession. Was a reminder of why Rockaway will always be the gem of NYC.

    1. I’m glad you were able to finish cleaning out your dad’s house.

      I am very sorry to hear about the fire fighter losing his life at such a young age.

    2. Such a difficult task. I’m glad you are finished and hope you found some special memories

      I’m very sorry for your loss

    3. Condolences on the loss. That’s very sad. First responders always have my utmost respect and admiration.

      Congratulations on the task completion. That stuff is never easy. As you know, I face something similar.

      1. Yes TK and I was always impressed at how you kept on top o& the blog while going through that!

  16. Still snowing and blowing at Jay Peak…

    https://jaypeakresort.com/resort/photo-day

    Last 24 Hours: Another 12 ” – 16 ”
    Last 48 Hours: 21 ”
    Last 7 Days: 55 ”
    Season Total: 68″

    These numbers were as of this AM. Another 10-12″ were expected this afternoon through tomorrow AM.

    Unreal for November 17.

    1. I am happy for skiers and snow enthusiasts !

      May it keep coming ….. up there !

      I do request a couple of inches of snow locally once Santa has dropped off the gifts 🙂

  17. Nice break for pats Sunday , chase has been suspended for a game for spitting in another players face , looser !!

  18. GFS and Euro hinting at coastal storm development and accumulating snow potential as we end November and begin December.

    12z Euro coastal storm for 11/30:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025111712&fh=306&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    18z GFS meanwhile has a coastal for 12/1-2:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025111718&fh=348&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Still a ways out there but liking the looks of December for some early season cold/snow chances in SNE after we get through the next few weeks.

      1. We should get some systems that start to slide under us as we head into December. Those solutions are very possible. Just not convinced we see the pattern change that soon, as TK alluded to. The effects of the SSW event and subsequent polar air intrusion into the US can often be delayed by several weeks. Not to mention the exact placement of the polar vortex (if/when it enters the US) would dictate how much cold we see out of it, and the storm track. If it is centered over the west/central US, might not do us much good. For now, I will remain cautiously optimistic.

  19. Mount Mansfield snow stake now up to 39″. This is the deepest snow depth this early in the year they have had since they started keeping records 70 years ago. Avg depth this time of year is 6″.

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