Tuesday November 18 2025 Forecast (6:21AM)

63 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Blocking relaxes over the next few days. As mentioned on yesterday’s discussion, we keep the blustery chilly weather today between high pressure to the west and a large storm system in Atlantic Canada, before high pressure builds in with more tranquil conditions Wednesday and Thursday. During later Wednesday and early Thursday, a smaller low pressure area will slide out just south of New England, throwing some of its high and mid level cloudiness into our sky, but its precipitation remaining south of the area. Friday, another low will head through the Great Lakes and down the St. Lawrence Valley, and its cold front can bring us some rain showers at some point during that day – timing to be fine-tuned. This system will push offshore with it now looking more likely that Saturday will be dry with a brisk northwesterly breeze.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts around 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30 except 28-35 coastal areas and urban centers. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun becomes filtered by high clouds at times. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH diminishing and becoming variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Clouds limit the sun. Highs 47-54. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Guidance remains somewhat wishy-washy on deterministic details which are harder to determine out this far anyway. Eyeing November 24 for a potential wet weather event. Other systems to watch: November 26 but should pass south. At the moment, timing leads me to lean toward dry weather for Thanksgiving Day.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

Same mode of thinking. We watch for a larger intrusion of cold air into the US at some point around the end of Thanksgiving Weekend into the first couple days of December, but with a lot of uncertainty as to timing and where the thrust of the cold would be. In our region, I expect a low pressure area to track through the Great Lakes early in the period and sweep a strong cold front through here with at least an initial shot of colder air behind it. After that the leaning is for a seasonable to chilly but dry pattern.

63 thoughts on “Tuesday November 18 2025 Forecast (6:21AM)”

  7. Hoping for a dry thanksgiving to make the thanksgiving 5k dry and hopefully “warm”.

    (Wordle in 3)

    1. Outstanding!!! Co-Engineer!!!

      We’re not seeing anything remotely resembling that image any time soon. 🙂

            1. In my opinion, there is no terrible score.

              Even not getting the word is an acceptable, hopefully not common, outcome.

              1. Sorry, don’t agree.
                If I get any meaningful letters with guesses 1 and 2, I am in good shape. When I get diddly Squat, I am in deep trouble, so much so, it affects the way I proceed and thus a string of 5,6 and fail.

    2. And Eric had a post last night, that similarly, Mt Mansfield, I think it is, up in VT, has a quite deep 30″ snow cover due to upslope snow, very early in the season.

      1. At last check yesterday, the Mansfield snow stake depth was up to 38″…..deepest depth this early in the season since they started recording it 70 years ago.

        Avg depth this time of year is 6″.

  14. I never get these correct, but that won’t stop me 🙂 …….

    Just checked ENSO forecasts, and a weak La Nino still gets the most likely outcome now through the end of meterological winter, crossing to neutral sometime in early-mid Spring.

    In the back of my head, I note the extremely wet last week to 10 days in southern CA, sometimes more associated with El Nino.

    We’ve heard plenty of chatter the last 7 days about a possible SSW episode in the high arctic having some effect on the continental US in December.

    We know there are blobs of unusual warm water in the west central Pacific. (Tropical tidbits ocean analysis maps)

    So …….. taking it all into consideration …. here goes …….

    Slightly below avg temps in December and January in New England, with the coldest temps in the central US

    Average to slightly above avg temps in February

    Avg to slightly below avg precip Dec thru February

    I like 30-35 inches of snow at Logan
    40-45 inches of snow in Boston’s suburbs, even its southwest suburbs

    Logan will have a day with a high temp under 8F and 2 nights with low temps below 0F.

    Logan will break the 6″ snowfall drought in 1 event that is ongoing before meteorological spring begins.

    2. I think that is a pretty good estimate of how things may play out. And pretty consistent with what the CanSIPS is showing….colder to start then trending normal for temps while precip is below normal in December trending normal for the rest of the winter. Not sure what is going with the CFS but its got above normal temps now for a lot of the country Dec-Feb with Jan being the driest month and Dec and Feb being somewhat wetter.

      I think with some cold air around and weak ENSO, we are going to see a few good systems this year and manage at least average snow. We are overdue for that. I will also go out on a limb and say Boston gets a 6″ storm before the year is done.

  17. What’s going on with the 12z HRRR for tomorrow AM??
    A surprise accumulating snow event for us here in CT and RI?

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025111812&fh=23&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera Snow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025111812&fh=28&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Actually delivers 0.5-1.5″ of snow in CT and 2-3″ across NE PA, northern NJ and SE NY. Should be nice and cold tomorrow AM so my guess is that it would have no problem sticking.

    NAM is not on board.

    1. That would be the little storm that TK mentioned would
      throw it’s cloud shield only up here.

      iDuring later Wednesday and early Thursday, a smaller low pressure area will slide out just south of New England, throwing some of its high and mid level cloudiness into our sky, but its precipitation remaining south of the area /i

      And that would also be why the NAM is not on board.

      We shall see. My Money is on TK and not the HRRR. 🙂

      1. I feel a bit better. SClarke had me a tad worried about his driving 😉 I’m getting lonely in the dining car. I’ll stop by both front and back to visit.

    1. 12z GFS now has a cutter around that same time and then follows it up with a coastal system on 12/3.

  21. With all the early season snow in our NNE mountains what does it mean for the upcoming winter in SNE?

    A. A bonanza of snow? (normal and above)

    B. The usual putrid snowless winter that we have experienced for the past several years now.

    C. No correlation whatsoever.

    What I also find interesting is that to the best of my knowledge, Denver has yet to see any measurable snow or even flakes. They usually get theirs long before Halloween most years.

    2. C, but with a “caveat”.

      It would have no direct correlation in terms of the finer details. However, at this time of the year, there are some instances where the current / ongoing pattern (or transitions between patterns) can say something about the upcoming winter regime. So there can be a loose correlation.

      There has always been a loose believe that a wet October / November, for example, translates to a wetter than average winter and therefore, if the timing and temp pattern is correct, a better shot at a snowier winter. Again, loose relationship at best, which is why given A, B, and C as answers, C is the best one.

  22. Works for me

    Why you should always put a coin on a frozen cup of water before storms.
    It’s called the one cup tip. You put a cup of water in your freezer. Freeze it solid and then put a quarter on top of it and leave it in your freezer. That way when you come back after you’ve been evacuated you can tell if your food went completely bad and just refroze or if it stayed Frozen while you were gone. If the quarter has fallen to the bottom of the cup that means all the food defrosted and you should throw it out. But if the quarter is either on the top or in the middle of the cup then your food may still be ok. It would also be a great idea to leave this in your freezer all the time and if you lose power for any reason you will have this tip to fall back on. If you don’t feel good about your food, just throw it out. The main thing is for all to be safe.

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