Wednesday November 19 2025 Forecast (8:36AM)

91 Comments

COMMENTARY

You may have heard many things on social media the last few days ranging from “sneaky snow for today” based on someone grabbing one HRRR model run that was poorly initialized, or getting caught up in the hype of a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event that was “supposed to flip our pattern to full on winter with relentless cold and snow” but these are words of hype-masters and wish-casters who don’t really do this for the reason of actually informing the followers, but instead garnering clicks and shares, and/or getting the thrill of being “the one to break the news” even if it’s far-fetched. That said, there is an ongoing event that disrupts the Polar Vortex, which while not a frequent occurrence is also not something that would be a surprise, and also does not guarantee any single area sees an abundance of any specific kind of weather either – at least until we get a chance to properly scientifically examine the evolution of the event and the pattern that results, the details of it, and the duration of it. As a forecaster, that’s something I’ll be doing in proper timing. In other words, I’m not going to tell you that we have a super high chance of the snowiest December in years because I simply don’t know about that yet. We just passed the half way point of November. And while “meteorlogical winter” is just under 2 weeks from its start, actual winter is still over a month away from arriving. We’re in late autumn, not winter, right now. One event, one pattern change, one thing at a time. Looking ahead is perfectly fine – that’s why it’s called “forecasting”, but apply the science that error increases as time beyond the initial does. You’ll do better. If the consumer realizes this is a fact of the science of meteorology, they’ll do better too.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

The last few days featured a lot of wind and chilly air. Today, we still have chilly air, but a much more tranquil day as a small area of high pressure has built over our region and relaxed the lower atmosphere – i.e., taken away the pressure gradient that was present between the approach of this high pressure area and the very slow departure of an expansive area of low pressure spinning about in Atlantic Canada. You will notice today that we will have a veil of high cloudiness moving across the southern sky, even some mid level clouds underneath the higher deck especially closer to the South Coast, limiting the sun even more than just the filtering the higher clouds do to it further north. This is from a small low pressure system being shunted just south of our region from what remains of the blocking pattern that was in place for a while. A high pressure area that had been parked over Greenland now drifts eastward on a journey toward northwestern Europe and this relaxes the block and opens the door for a storm track that moves through the Great Lakes into eastern Canada more easily. This more progressive pattern means several upcoming changes to our weather and things to keep track of as we head through the rest of this week (and next week – Thanksgiving Week – which I’ll talk about in the next section). We’ll keep fair weather Thursday as high pressure hangs on, although an upper disturbance passing by to our south will again produce some cloudiness in the region, limiting the sunshine. The next thing I’ve been watching is how the late-week unsettled weather threat was going to play out. After seeing a variety of model solutions and watching trends here, how I think it plays out is that low pressure travels through the Great Lakes then down the St. Lawrence Valley late Friday and Friday night, dragging its cold front across our region. Milder air ahead of this system means that any showers that are triggered by the front would be in the form of rain. Additionally, as the front passes, a weak wave of low pressure will get going on it and pass just to our south, and this can toss a short-duration shield of light rainfall into the South Coast region, maybe up as far north as the MA South Shore in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. The quick movement of this system means that any wet weather threat is gone by about sunrise Saturday, and other than a deck of clouds “delaying sunrise” aka making the sun not visible for a while as it rises, it looks like a dry day. We will see it turn a bit cooler than Friday along with an increasing breeze as the day goes on, but not as windy or cold as the days early this week were. A bubble of high pressure will scoot just south of us on Sunday, keeping our weather fair and seasonably cool for late November. If you like to get a jump on decorating outside for the holidays, this coming weekend looks ideal for doing just that.

TODAY: Sunshine will be brightest in southern NH / northern MA, filtered to dimmed further to the south by some high and patchy middle cloudiness. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH diminishing and becoming variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Clouds limit the sun. Highs 47-54. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible mainly north of I-90. A period of rain pre-dawn South Coast to possibly MA South Shore. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Limited sun early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

There are potential disturbances to bring at least marginally unsettled weather about every other day during Thanksgiving Week (holiday is November 27). Watching November 24, 26, 28 for best unsettled weather chances, with some up and down temperatures (averaging near to slightly above normal for the period) with the quick-changes as well. Deterministic details are impossible this far in advance with this type of pattern. Obviously much fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

A more significant shot of cold air is possible to end November – timing and details are TBD. Leaning chilly/dry for the start of December but with low confidence. Medium range guidance shows a comical variety of outcomes here, so this is just based on my overall feel of the larger scale set-up I think we will have at the time.

91 thoughts on “Wednesday November 19 2025 Forecast (8:36AM)”

    1. Joining you in the caboose with a 6 Also, Tom. I had correct letters ins spots 2,5,6 after two guesses. Took me till guess 6 to get.

    2. I thought the image would be of your Wordle results. I laughed very hard when I saw what it was instead!

      2. That actually may have even been funnier. It was PATHETIC!!!
        One of my poorest showings so far!!!!

        If my starter words don’t help out much, I tend to short circuit.
        Weird!!! My mind just can’t focus. I do have ADHD, which doesn’t help. 🙂 🙂 🙂 What really pisses me off is that my IQ is Mensa level, but does me NO GOOD at all with WORDLE. 🙂 🙂
        I am having trouble dealing with that. BUT I shall keep plugging away. Some days are much better than others for me. 🙂

    1. I’m all over social media but as I’ve said block is my friend. I’m down to anyone who uses a laugh emoji to be cruel. I didn’t see a thing. And don’t want to.

  6. TK, thank you for the detail. I believe one of the TV mets mentioned something similar about the Polar Vortex but like you did not attach any outcomes to it …. for the moment anyway.

    1. There are assumptions or wish-casts made that somehow every PV disruption sends the trough to New England. Of course this is probably the assumption / wish cast made by people who do such things no matter where they are.

      Unfortunately for me, as a meteorologist with many contacts across the web, I get these posts sent to me with questions about validity. I don’t go looking for it myself. I mean, it’s obvious it’s out there and I don’t have time to go confronting all of them. The result is always the same. Their “loyal followers” aka “easily duped” will just tell you to follow another page, that their person is never wrong, better than the professionals, etc. – you know all the garbage. It’s a waste of time.

      However, I will reply to people who ask me, and occasional reiterate my opinion on it, as I did above today. Such posts continue to be a hindrance to communication of actual data and in some cases the science itself.

  7. I tried a weird second guess in Wordle. It was wrong, but gave me a lot of information. I got it in three.

  8. Thanks, TK.

    Love the non-hype that you bring to the table. It reminds me of my time in The Netherlands. The Dutch may be the most no-nonsense people in the world. Never into hyperbole. Always the facts. Invariably blunt, too. Do NOT trust showmanship or the use of entertainment in presenting the news. Their weather forecasting on TV may look boring to a typical American viewer. But at least you know it’s grounded in evidence.

    2. I still maintain we have a pretty good market here in Boston for TV. You have to keep in mind – these folks are not “hyping” in the way I referenced above – the stuff you see from social media pages that were created just for the purpose of getting attention.

      The TV folks still have a job to do to make it interesting to the viewer, because that is the nature of the business. So don’t confuse hype with “making it interesting” for the audience. Of all the local I see on a regular basis, I wouldn’t put any of them in the category of the folks I mentioned in my commentary. 🙂 I have my favorites, yes, but that’s just going to be the case with anything.

  10. Thanks TK for the detailed discussion.

    “I’m not going to tell you that we have a super high chance of the snowiest December in years because I simply don’t know about that yet. ”

    My interpretation: TK says there is a chance we have the snowiest December in years.

    Thanks for making my day!

  11. BTW……just catching my breath after coming in from shoveling all that HRRR generated snow off my driveway.

    1. BA HAHAHAHA!

      Yeah there were several posts I got alerted to on social media from those “pages”, talking about the sneaky snowstorm based on one HRRR run. Yet the followers just keep going back to the same really, really bad sources. I don’t get it. 🙂

  13. Ben Noll
    @BenNollWeather
    2h

    A major sudden stratospheric warming event, possibly the earliest on record, is now likely to occur from late November into early December.

    For an event to be classified as major, it requires both a dramatic temperature rise as well as a sharp deceleration in stratospheric winds.

    The event’s impact — a disruption of the polar vortex — may quickly propagate from the stratosphere into the troposphere, where weather happens, displacing Arctic air southward into Canada and the United States after Thanksgiving.

    This pipeline of cold will be reinforced during December as high pressure becomes anchored over Russia.

    Several pulses of frigid air look likely across the United States next month, particularly in the northern half of the country.

    Though less certain, it seems reasonable to expect that this cold air will link up with moisture a few times, increasing chances for a snowier-than-average start to winter in some states.

    Stratospheric warming events are slow-moving, so don’t be surprised if it takes a little longer to ‘feel’ the impacts and if it sticks around for longer than you might expect — possibly into the new year.

    It will be an interesting ride.

    https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1991136881837478343?s=20

    1. This guy speaks more reasonably about such things.

      Now we just have to get people to stop translating lines like “Though less certain, it seasoms reasonable to expect that this cold air will link up with moisture a few times, increasing chances for a snowier-than-average start to winter in some states.” to “I’m going to get buried in my back yard over and over from Thanksgiving to the Vernal Equinox!”

      There is nothing wrong with the statement he made, at all. He included the necessary caveats. For some reason, some people just ignore those and completely incorrectly infer a different meaning. My blog readers and participants know better, though. 🙂

      1. Yes, agree….that was why I posted it. It was a good explanation of what is happening and how it may translate for impacts in the US while at the same time keeping it vague enough given the unknowns.

    2. Thanks Mark, but I’ll believe when I see it.

      How it plays out here is hard to tell at this point.

      The moisture link ups discussed above, could be coastals impacting us, but could as easily be Mid-Atlantic events passing South of us or even Cutters passing West of us. No way to tell at this point.

      1. Yep, it’s going to be all about placement. I’m cautiously optimistic though. Give me a PV nearby any day over a bulging SE ridge!

  14. Isn’t it funny how the HRRR run showing the SNOW in CT failed to verify and even changed its tune from run-to-run during
    yesterday.

    1. The NAM (12km) I believe is now doing that with the northern extent of the rain shield for that thing passing south of us on Saturday AM.

        2. If you look at the RRFS you’ll see something similar, but that entire northern precipitation swath will probably exist as virga with a lot of dry air just below it. These things also tend to move by more quickly than even model forecast at that range indicate, especially quasi-open waves on fronts that just went by a region. I would make no changes to my discussion above based on the 12z information I have seen thus far, which also includes a slightly wetter look from the GFS as well.

  17. Thanks, TK!
    Thanks for your detailed discussion this morning! 🙂

    23 here this morning, the lowest low of the season so far! 🙂

    1. Some more model support for the GFS solution!!!!

      🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
      🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
      🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
      🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
      🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
      🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
      🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 :):) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  21. Thanks TK, great commentary as always!

    It’s been one of the wettest starts to the rainy season on record here in SoCal, an incredibly welcome turn of events after how last winter started. Our fire season is over before Thanksgiving (a rarity) and the local mountains are painted white once again 🙂

    We’ll probably be even more thankful to have all this moisture in the bank over the next month or two. I do think the deck is stacked towards prolonged/significant cold air outbreaks into the Central US this winter (especially early, but who knows) and usually for us out West that means dry offshore flow on the back side of those Arctic outbreaks.

    1. Nice to see you WXwatcher.

      Was noticing SNOW at Mountain High resort. Should be opening really soon.

    1. It’s on the way. The the GFS’s depiction of a snowstorm for the weekend after Thanksgiving was likely a fun piece of fiction based on how the upper level pattern evolution goes (this model really struggles to figure that out).

      Personally, I’d prefer a dry 29th. My son is performing with his choir outside at Woburn’s Festival On The Common, after which we are driving to Worcester to catch a show by Trans-Siberian Orchestra. 🙂

        1. Despite my discussion above about watching 24, 26, 28 of November for unsettled weather, there’s been a trend today for things to move faster. This may be reflected in tomorrow’s discussion if I buy it enough and the trend conditions.

          Guidance has it’s normal wish-washy, then it’s extraordinary wish-washy around the times of pattern flips.

          This is another reason I get a frustrated chuckle out of seeing so many posts shared to me from social media where suddenly the 364 hour forecast is spot on when it shows what the poster wants it to show. 😉

  23. Eric F has an interesting post about late year 1968 having some similarities to how the northern mtns have done well with early season snow. He said more in his post, but after a 2nd night of parent teacher conferences, I’m too tired to remember what else he talked about. 🙂

      1. Boston ended up with 26.3” from that storm, 41” in February overall, and just shy of 54” on the winter. So an above normal snow winter for sure, but nearly half of the accumulation fell in that one storm.

        1. And it wasn’t because the mountains had early snow. 🙂

          That’s happened many times.

    2. No correlation whatsoever. I’ve seen a lot of posts about it. It’s drastic reaching. I stand by that.

    2. Looks like JR agrees with me that Bostons 6” snow drought will end before December is over!

      Nice outlook. Colder and snowier than normal and 50-60” for Boston. Would fall in line with that 1968-69 winter as well, if it is indeed an analog. Of course, he is basing this outlook primarily just on weak LaNina and an easterly QBO. We know there are many other indices that could screw things up if they don’t fall in line.

      1. The strongest analogs for this coming winter do not include 1968-1969.

        It’s also wise to find more recent analogs that have occurred during the positive phase of the AMO. For this coming winter, those are 2000-2001, 2005-2006, and 2017-2018. All of these started with weak La Nina and featured easterly QBO.

        1. 46”, 40”, and 60” respectively were the snow totals for Boston in those analog years. Not too shabby.

  28. When will Boston (and Quincy for that matter) reach that elusive 32F? I believe we are well past the average date. Sometime in early November?

    1. They should make it to 32 tonight.
      Average first date is Nov 5, but it can vary greatly.
      They hit 33 on Nov 7.
      If the temp sensor was where it used to be, they’d have already made 32. There has been a lot of wind and not many calm overnights there this month. With the sensor sitting next to pavement and water, both of those things combine to result in “warmer” nighttime temps. It has a bigger impact than people realize.

  29. The run-to-run inconsistencies presented by the GFS op runs are astounding.

    I’m putting that model in a time-out for a while. It’s not often that I trust the ICON over anything, but I trust the ICON over the GFS these days. That says something.

  30. The difference between the GFS / NAM and the RRFS on the northern extent of Saturday morning’s rain threat is even more astounding than the run-to-run inconsistencies with the GFS. About a 250 mile spread with the location of the northern edge of the rainfall.

  31. I want the drink that the EURO took during the party at the 00z with the GFS. EURO Nor-Easter, no tropical system. GFS no nor-easter but has a boarderline hurricane northeast of the Caribbean. Reason GFS doesn’t have a storm is that the pieces do not interact.

    1. I can find all kinds of things wrong with both of those operational runs, but to list them all will take longer than it will to just wait for the next set of runs to come out, which will be different anyway. 😉

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