Thursday November 20 2025 Forecast (7:55AM)

90 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

After a cold overnight with fairly calm winds, we will have a chilly but tranquil day today as a weak area of high pressure sits nearby. A subtle low level flow from the Atlantic has provided enough moisture for some scattered to broken stratus, while a short wave trough at upper levels moving by from west to east has sent a swath of high clouds across the sky. This will keep the sun limited for several hours during today, but eventually we’ll see more of it before it sinks and makes its way to the horizon before 4:20 p.m. A cold front will sweep through the region late Friday, parented by low pressure moving down the St. Lawrence Valley. This front lacks moisture initially, so any rain shower chance timed for Friday evening is rather low. Once it goes by, it becomes quasi-stationary just south of our area and a quick-moving low pressure wave rides along it, but the bulk of the rainfall generated by it will pass to our south in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday, getting far enough north to bring a couple hours of rain to the South Coast and maybe a brief shot of it as far north as the MA South Shore, though currently I’m leaning drier there. Behind this comes an increasing northwesterly breeze and dry weather for the balance of the day Saturday as the low pressure wave strengthens upon departure and high pressure heads are way from the west. The high center slips just south of our region Sunday which will be a fair and seasonably cool day. Monday’s weather looks mainly dry but some clouds move through with a weak trough in a westerly air flow.

TODAY: Lots of clouds with limited sun. Highs 47-54. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible mainly north of I-90. A period of rain pre-dawn South Coast to possibly MA South Shore. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Limited sun early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

A low pressure area brings a rain chance (maybe brief mix to the north) later November 25 into November 26 based on current expecting timing, which is a bit faster than yesterday’s expectations. Guidance continues to be wildly inconsistent for the Thanksgiving / Black Friday / into the weekend time frame. There may be another low to watch, favoring the day after Thanksgiving, but highly uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

A more significant shot of cold air is possible to end November, and this is associated with the much-talked-about PV disruption. What remains to be seen is if the initial shot of cold is quick-passing or has a little more staying power. The first few days of December are going to be tough to call, but initially I lean chilly to seasonable and mainly dry but having to watch for at least one progressive disturbance.

90 thoughts on “Thursday November 20 2025 Forecast (7:55AM)”

  2. Wordle is more choices. I had all except first letter again on guesses 4 and 5. Caboose again for me with a 6

  3. 32 at Logan which would be their first visit to the freezing point this season. Many more to come!

    1. Good try SClarke and JPD. Nyt goes thru spurts using words where one or two letters are not inky key but many letters can fit in those spots. Choices. I’m hoping they move from that soon.

      Awesome 5 Tom. So far I think the 5 is driving the train.

      1. Indeed we can. Nice to have some company and help propelling that thing. My hands and arms are still aching from yesterday.

    1. According to the wishcaster pages out there, it’s a lock. 😉 Get ready!

      I think I’ve had 8 messages so far today asking me about the “snowstorm for Thanksgiving Weekend” and how much we’re getting, all triggered by such posts.

      I’m starting to add to my answers to these folks: “Please stop following these pages. It will help you a lot.” 😉

        1. Sadly, I am not initially getting much heeding of that advice.

          Earlier I had one sent to me that a page posted the ECMWF’s December snow forecast map with astronomical numbers, and had NO CLUE the map was in centimeters and not inches. That embarrassment carried its own consequences to the page and the multiple shares it got. 😉 Do I feel bad? NOT ONE IOTA.

          1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

            I remember one time I posted a snow map here in Centimeters. That was embarrassing! 🙂

              1. Sure was!!! I don’t remember who pointed it out.
                I “think” it was Mark and he was kind about it.

  10. For anyone that missed it yesterday I wanted to post JR’s winter outlook again: https://whdh.com/weather-blog/winter-outlook-2025-2026/

    I as well have been getting messages from people asking about the “euro bomb” for thanksgiving weekend. If I never went outside and kept the shades drawn I would always know when winter was approaching by the frequency of questions increasing.

    (Wordle in 2 again)

  11. The model I’m looking at for Thanksgiving simulates Turkey, Gravy, Stuffing, mashed potatoes, rolls, about 5 different types of pie, followed by football and leftovers.

    And the 540 thickness around my waist.

  12. The poor snow enthusiasts are going to suffer from snow expectation burnout by Nov 30th if the Thanksgiving thing doesn’t pan out.

    Not me, I will only be pleasantly surprised if by small chance some of it verifies.

    1. Very small chance!!!! But I will watch just the same.
      I am betting the snow change is GONE with the 12Z run!!!

      1. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a disturbance around then.

        But, so early in the cold season, its more climatologically reasonable to lean towards a disturbance going west of us.

        Early in the cold season, its easier for colder airmasses to move south through the central US.

        There’s an ice free Hudson Bay, colder airmasses do much better in eastern Canada the second half of the cold season which helps to suppress the jet stream for coastal storms.

        Certainly have had snowy coastal events before in late November, I remember a 3-6 inch snowfall on Thanksgiving in Lowell in the late 80s to early 90s.

        But, that is far from the norm.

        1. The large scale pattern would suggest a disturbance around that time would be pushed further southeast and not phase with additional energy to the north and west.

          Storm tracks are not likely to be further west due to the time of year – it’s dependent on the pattern. There are a lot of uncertainties in here, but the strongest signal to me is colder / drier vs. stormy for that period of time. In terms of a vaguely-worded forecast, it is the way I worded it in today’s discussion. I leaned toward “something” on the 28th vs the 29th, faster, and less impactful, but with a high degree of uncertainty.

  14. We all know that Logan is not representative of the area in general. Today was certainly no exception. They finally made it to 32 for a low, surrounded by heat-holding asphalt and relatively warm ocean water.

    The next warmest reading was 30 on Nantucket, that being no surprise. Compare that to the 18 on Martha’s Vineyard, which we know radiates optimally! BRR!

    1. I feel like we’ve discussed this before but if you were to choose – what would be the better location than Logan to represent Boston?

      2. For me, it would be Copley Square with the Boston Common or Public Gardens as next choice. Just my choice. 🙂

        1. The more I learn. The more I agree re one in either of those locations as the Boston record keeper. But for reasons Pete and others have named, keep Logan too

      3. Boston Common – 100%

        They obviously have to have a station at the airport, but they could technically have made the official climate record for the city be elsewhere. They were restricting themselves not doing that.

    1. One of the common catch words to use to draw clicks and shares. CNN is particularly “skilled” at this practice.

      Yes this would be one of the earliest ones observed in the satellite era.

      We’ve only been able to recognize SSW events since 1952. That’s a very short period of time compared to how long they’ve actually been occurring. 😉

      It’s amazing how many things are “unheard of” or “unprecedented” when you have only been looking for them for a tiny percentage of the time they’ve existed. 😉

  16. GFS: Gets more puzzling with each run. What have they done to that model to break it that badly?

    RRFS / HRRR: Nailed today’s sky conditions 2 days in advance. That’s one of the things they were designed to do. I’m pleased to see the RRFS seems to be pretty admirable. Looking forward to when we can big the NAM farewell. The time is drawing near…

  17. Up until 1936, Boston Common was the official observation station for the city of Boston.

    Changing it to Logan was and still is a bad idea.

    1. That’s actually not correct. Blue Hill Observatory clarified this. The observations prior being taken at Logan were taken atop the US Post Office building at Congress St. & Milk St. – the elevation being 337 feet. This location is about half-way between the common and the harbor. There were never official observations taken on the common.

  18. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025112012&fh=171&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025112012&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2025112012&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2025112012&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    LMAO !!!!!!!!!!!

      1. Maybe, maybe not.

        But, I am chuckling more at the facebook pages that posted yesterday’s GFS runs, wondering what they will be saying after these runs.

        And then watch, a subsequent GFS run will return to a snowstorm ….. and there will be more non-sense written on these pages.

        1. I still have someone out there who guaranteed a very cold Thanksgiving Day, like 3 weeks ago.

      2. Well, they are all pretty much different when it comes down to details, so they can’t all verify. This is for Nov 26 (the day before Thanksgiving).

    1. I’m not sure, but I think once a long time ago I heard someone say, if I remember correctly, that deterministic guidance isn’t that reliable out beyond 4 days …. I hope I’m remembering that right.

      I think they said that looking at ensembles was a better idea to get a general idea of what solution may be a little more likely. I also think they said something about focusing on larger scale pattern recognition over day to day details.

      Did I hear all that right? I’ll be darned if I can remember who said it though. 😉

      HAHA Yes. I was just showing this to a colleague.

      1. Seems to me I have heard that before around here.
        What an example this is!!!

        We said it would likely be gone on the 12Z run, Well, it’s GONE, BABY GONE!!!

        1. I almost popped in the other day to say that we are in a period of transition and I would trust no guidance beyond 3 days.

  20. We’re getting a little ocean effect ? mist on the eastern most side of town.

    But then, I look to the northwest and can see almost clear sky on that horizon.

    Neat sky day.

  22. Our old “friend” with WP is back again with its annoying sidebar or whatever you call it.

    It only affects those with iPhones like myself.

    IT’S ANNOYING!!! 🙁

    2. I’ve been floating around an idea of creating a version of WHW for Discord, which is extremely easy to use, and as far as I know does not present the same issues. It also makes sharing videos, graphics, pictures, etc. much easier, and gives you the ability to do other things that you can’t on a regular page like this. If you’re unfamiliar with Discord, I’ll have my son come up with the best link(s) for a tutorial. I was going to have him do that anyway.

      Discord would actually give the opportunity for a live chat as well, which is a more deluxe version of the WP comments section we use here. 🙂

      I’m already on Discord with my extended family and it blows everything else away, and you have far more control over what you see and do there than you do on regular social media platforms.

  23. I bet it easily reached the 20s at Boston Common early this morning. It would have been far more representative of the city neighborhoods. Even here in Quincy it got down to 28.

      1. Proves my point that Logan is a very poor (at best) representative of weather observations.

        Aren’t observations taken in Central Park in addition to the NYC airports?

        1. Yes. The airports have to have stations for obvious reasons. But the climate record is kept @ Central Park, since 1869.

          They still have one of my favorite stat pairings…

          Record low: -15F on Feb 9 1934.
          Record high: 106F on July 9 1936.

          Those 2 records are separated by 2 years and 5 months.

      1. It’s a little different than a full SSW where the natural Rossby waves propogating upward are reflected back down by a strong stratospheric PV and that sets off a process of elongation of the tropospheric PV that then leads to a spread out of cold south of the polar region.

        There have been several of these events (more common than SSW) observed over the last 15 years.

        This is a very loose explanation but I know some papers have already been written about this. I’ll see if I can locate some more comprehensive, readable info.

        1. Thanks TK !

          If you have a chance and get some of that info you mentioned, at your convenience, I will read up because I’ll have a lot of learning to do here.

  25. Philip for NYC they use Central Park for the official record when it comes to high and low temps rainfall and snowfall.

  28. Pete said this when I asked about the common it handsome.

    It’s a great idea! And one that’s been raised numerous times over the years. Not sure why no one has follow through.

  29. Thanks TK

    AI Euro/regular euro has vey little QPF, same with GFS/CMC and regular euro. Surprised to see this little precip. Pattern looks pretty benign early and certainly a little more active in early December.

    Also did everyone see that Jay Peak already has over 100 inches of snow. They led the country last year and looks like that will continue. I feel an absolute epic winter up north. Stow is opening with 50 trails already. That’s the best we have ever seen to start a season.

    1. Yeah I have been posting a lot about it the past week. Jay Peak is actually at 93” officially but 66” of that has fallen in the last 7 days. Crazy. And I believe Stowe just increased their opening day trail count to 59 including the front four diamond trails on all natural snow. Mansfield snow stake is at an all time record 39” depth for this early in the season .

      Last time this happened in November in 1968-69 it was a record snow winter for NNE. Mt Washington received 566” of snow that year , a record that remains unbroken.

      1. Incredible early season snow, I saw that Mt Mansfield was at all time high for this early.

        Great to see Stowe opening more trails. Not sure everyone realizes that Jay Peak is about the snowiest location in the US.

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