Friday November 21 2025 Forecast (8:02AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

It was another car-window-scraping morning for many as high pressure sitting overhead created calm wind and a slight increase in moisture from the Atlantic and provided what was needed for frost to form. Today is a “warm advection” day. You’ll notice this in 2 ways. The first is that it will be a few to several degrees milder today than yesterday. The other way you’ll see it depends on where you live. If you’re in the remote southwestern suburbs of Boston, in RI, eastern CT, and central MA to far southwestern NH, you’ve already seen it in the form of an advancing deck of stratus clouds. If you are further east and northeast of these locations, you may be able to see the approach of that cloud deck (unless you’re on Cape Ann MA or up along the NH Seacoast as of 7:30 a.m. in which case you’re too far away and the deck is below your horizon still. Anyway this cloud deck marks the warming of air and increased mositure at low levels. It’ll make an advance east northeastward and limit the sun for most of the region eventually, but will also develop breaks and allow occasional sun to make a come-back as the afternoon goes on too. Overall, not a bad day today for now late November! But what about this weekend? Well, later today a cold front passes by without much fanfare (rain/snow shower stay up over northern New England and I can remove the chance I had north of I-90 later today from the short-term forecast. The front settles just to the south tonight and a wave of low pressure ripples along it, bringing a quick shot of light rainfall to the South Coast region early Saturday before it heads out to sea, leaving the region generally dry, a little more breezy, and slightly cooler. Sunday’s weather will feature more of a sun / cloud combo as a disturbance moves across the region, but at this time I do not expect it to generate any precipitation for our area. As we are now in a transitional pattern, the timing of systems has been difficult to pin down beyond even a couple days in advance. At this point, I expect that an area of high pressure will provide fair weather for our region Monday, but an approaching trough from the west will send low pressure into the Great Lakes Tuesday – its extending warm front bringing clouds and eventually wet weather chances back to us later that day.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind SW increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain pre-dawn South Coast to possibly MA South Shore. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy start then increasing sun but additional passing clouds northwest to southeast. Highs 45-52. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Clouding over. Chance of rain late, especially western areas. Highs 43-50. Wind calm then SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Still a few details to work out for the day-before-Thanksgiving (26th) and Thanksgiving Day (27th) forecasts. With a larger low tracking through the Great Lakes then into southeastern Canada we still have a trough and cold front to move by our region – early Wednesday and sometime later Wednesday to very early Thursday when there are rain shower threats with milder air in place. After that, the trend is drier and colder as there is a larger reservoir of cold air to the west and north to pull from. May have to watch for a minor disturbance to bring a little light snow or flurries to the region sometime Thanksgiving Weekend, but more speculation than anything higher confidence at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)

There’s still a lot of uncertainty here, driven by the still to-be-determined details of a change in the large scale weather pattern. Expecting a colder overall regime, but we’ll be near the border of what looks like a stretched-out polar vortex and lingering milder air to the southeast as a ridge of high pressure tries to hang on in the southeastern US and offshore Atlantic waters. Progressive disturbances can bring precipitation but the type is determined by what air mass is dominant at the time and what transitions are ongoing. So there is a lot to investigate before coming up with a more confident outlook for the early days of December. General leaning: Temps near to below normal, precipitation near normal.

63 thoughts on “Friday November 21 2025 Forecast (8:02AM)”

    1. The top 3 longest stretches of time without 6+ at Logan all occurred during the “snow drought” from the late 1970s to the early 1990s. The current stretch is the 4th longest.

  5. Channel 5 is presenting its Winter Outlook tonight at 11:00 pm.

    Cindy’s hint: GET YOUR SHOVELS READY! ❄️

    1. She hinted that at the SNE Weather Conference already (she was the MC and we had some nice chats there back in October). 🙂

      I continue to work on my outlook, which is nearly half way written. I had a nasty cold virus earlier this week which slowed everything down (of course). I’m playing catch-up and also gearing up for the first Thanksgiving without mom and the grand decorating project that she still always wanted us to do, even when she wasn’t with us any longer. My son and I will start that in the next few days…

  6. Tom, I got this from Judah Cohen. It’s a bit rough to read but it should give you some info that you can use.

    https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adq9557

    Also, someone I used to work with runs a company that studies climate related stuff. While I don’t know specifically who wrote this, it’s one of the members of the company that deals with climate-related stuff. I’m not here to promote anybody really, so I’ll just quote a quick summary of what they said about the wave reflection event…

    “Traditionally, the strongest cold air events during wintertime across North America and Eurasia are caused by sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) episodes. Energetic Rossby Waves in the tropics turn poleward and upward reaching the polar stratosphere causing the stratosphere to warm and slow down stratospheric wind which sometimes reverses from west to east. The warming stratosphere is reflected downward into the weather atmosphere (troposphere) causing sharp increases in surface pressure and arctic air generation which can easily flow southward to chill North America (and the U.S.) or Europe eastward to China. Recent research reveals this type of cold air generation is less common. However, a different sort of condition in the stratosphere becoming increasingly common during the past 10 years is generating just as intense cold air outbreaks. Recent examples in the U.S. include the winter cold outbreaks of 2013-14, 2017-18, 2018-19, and 2020-21. The new stratospheric-induced cold outbreaks are referred to as “stratospheric downward wave reflection events (SDWRE)”.

    The preliminary understanding of “stratospheric downward wave reflection events” is an increase in stratospheric westerlies around the high-level polar vortex that propagate downward into the troposphere eventually causing an energized polar vortex creating frigid air masses in the middle latitudes. The study “Stratospheric downward wave reflection events modulate North America weather regimes and cold spells” by Gabriele Messori, Marlene Kretschmer, Simon H. Lee, and Vivien Wendt is focused on North America events.

    The study reveals that, on average, the 500 MB pattern across North America reflects presence at the onset of the stratospheric downward wave reflection event (SDWRE) of a strong upper trough in the Northeast Pacific extending into Alaska. In about 3 days, the SWRE event begins to cause changes on the troposphere. At the onset of this pattern, the Canadian and U.S. surface temperatures are quite warm. The upper ridge pattern causing the warmth begins to shift westward reaching the Canadian West Coast in 9 days. At that time, a downstream polar vortex begins to form over Northeast Canada. As the event continues to unfold the polar vortex shifts south and amplifies (on average, in 13 days) to cause a cold outbreak in the U.S. The pattern begins to weaken after 7 days. This type of cold air outbreak in North America is becoming more common than traditional SSW episodes.”

    1. Thanks so much TK !

      There’s a 20 minute silent reading block after lunch and I will give this a nice slow read then and see if I can understand it.

  8. Ok, enough spam from me for now. I have a long to-do list today that is a must-finish. I’ll spare you all the boring details, but it sets me up for a much smoother weekend / next week.

    I’ll check back later (after 12z global guidance, etc).

    I’ll also continue to chip away writing my winter outlook during coffee breaks etc. so I can get that out no later than Monday.

  12. Congratulations for some great Wordle scores today. And it’s good to see you back on the train JPD!

    I got it in 5.

    1. Thanks SCLARK. I thought for sure I had another fail.
      So far 4 leads the way with a 5 and my 6. 🙂

    1. Working on it! Mostly there … The chills are gone. The body aches are gone. I never really registered a fever despite the chills, but I suspect it was very low grade at times. The general malaise feeling is gone. All that’s left is the blocky, crunchy, drippy sinuses, the throat frogs, the crackly voice, which all of that as bad as it sounds is not that big a deal. Happy to be beyond the worst. Improves from here. 🙂

  15. The GFS remains on an island by itself insisting that Thanksgiving Day is going to be a mild, rainy one around here.

  16. I do it too, fixing on that long range simulation of a wintry precip scenario ……

    but, in the next several weeks, we’ll probably get hit by one that doesn’t get much attention and then suddenly in the short term, looks promising very quickly.

  17. Thanks TK.

    Great discussion in that link from Severe Weather Europe describing the SSW and Polar Vortex disruption that is in the process of getting underway. Definitely increases my confidence in the potential for some real cold here in the Northeast and what should be several snow chances in advance Christmas and New Years. My question is how long will this window be before the PV retreats? And does it rebuild again down the road?

    This has the potential to be one of better winters in years (of course the bar is set quite low with that statement).

    1. I already know their outlook. Cindy gave it away to me at the conference but I can’t say anything here. 😉

  19. I’m dreaming of a White Christmas……..
    Just like the ones I used to know……….

    (imagine the melodic sounds of Bing Crosby)

    Ben Noll
    @BenNollWeather
    9h

    There are signs that the Madden-Julian Oscillation will move across phases 7 and 8 during December — in tandem with the stratospheric warming.

    During winter, these phases have been linked to an increased frequency of East Coast storms as the southern jet stream becomes enhanced.

    https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1991854119729172678?s=20

  20. I’m watching the Winchester vs. Catholic Memorial high school football playoff game on YouTube (via Winchester’s cable access channel). The game is at CM but Winchester sends a camera person down to away games (no announcers other than what you hear from the PA announcer at the stadium).

    Winchester comes in with a record of 10-0, including 2 previous playoff wins, and averaging 42 points per game. CM comes in with a 7-2 record. That should favor Winchester, right? Wrong. CM is toying with Winchester in this game. It was 35-0 half way through the 2nd quarter, and while CM has clearly already sat some of their starters, they continue to dominate, doing the clock-killing game in the 3rd quarter and just punched another one in to make it 42-0.

    Winchester is being physically ravaged. Their QB is barely able to stay on his feet and is limping around. I wouldn’t have wished this on anybody, obviously, but this has implications for their visit to Woburn on Thanksgiving. We’ll be facing a physically spent team that had to face a humiliating loss after being so dominant. The situation gives Woburn a glimmer of hope to at least be competitive in the Turkey Day match-up. I do hope the Winchester team gets out of this game as healthy as possible though. I don’t wish for anybody to be injured to make it easier for us. We’ll see how it goes…

  21. They are likely going to play Bishop Feehan in the Super Bowl – and they will probably do the same to Feehan, which has also dominated mich if the season.

    1. 49-0 was the final. What a humbling game for Winchester though.

      Their point totals for the 11 games they played…
      42
      42
      56
      42
      42
      35
      48
      42
      42
      38
      0

  22. Im concerned for the MJO slowing down phase 7 (favors some SE ridge) then crashing down and with the PV restrenthening. This pattern has been linked to cool shots more than prolonged winter cold and favors the mid west and great lakes.. Thoughts TK?

    1. Not sure why so many people were all in on an immediately flip to cold in the East and it just staying that way.

      There was never any solid evidence for it at a reliable enough range.

      I’ve mentioned how the MJO has been a rough one for several winters and how it was often forecast to strengthen its influence but almost always has under performed those expectations. I mentioned to watch for that again – although I don’t think it will putter out to the degree it did the last few winters.

      The main thing here is – and this part puzzles me – so many people were totally sold on a full SSW when we should know better that those are exceedingly hard to predict and often don’t behave as first thought. There were signs as far back as a week ago that it may end up being a wave reflection event (which have been observed far more often than SSW’s). The jury’s still partially out but it looks more WRE than SSW to me, elongated PV that wobbles enough to deliver cold to most of the northern US, but stays longest Midwest / Plains while it lifts out and is replaced (in somewhat modified form) in the Northeast.

      Summary: December is likely to be more variable than “just cold and snowy”. That said, it’ll likely be colder and snowier than last year’s was.

      There’s also a real problem with so many amateur or non-met pages on social media flooding the internet with unreliable information, much of it based on “wishcasting” rather than “forecasting” because the page operators lack the ability to do the latter. Social media should not have become a playground for pages like this. The over-saturation of such information is serving to set mass expectations at unreasonable levels, and then when science dominates and reality sets in, they’re all disappointed.

      There’s also this ongoing thing to verify an entire season as “bad” before it even really gets underway.

      This is November 21. Winter begins a month from today.Yes, I know… December 1 is “meteorological winter” but people expect full mid winter conditions beginning on 12/1 and that’s just not how it works. Reality is, on 12/1 it’s still autumn. The ocean water is still relatively warm. The upper air, while colder, is not even close to its maximum cold.

      Seasonal changes are transitions, not switch-flips.

      Anyway, those are my thoughts. 🙂

      1. One other thing I meant to add earlier…

        December 1989, record cold (although very dry). IIRC the temp departure was nearly -14F at Boston.

        The pattern that caused that was a wave reflection event (not a SSW event). The pattern that resulted was more stable than the upcoming pattern the current episode is going to be.

        ENSO was neutral and there was not much ability for a SE ridge in 1989 vs. right now, while we still have some La Nina ongoing.

  23. Kinda disappointed that Channel 5’s Winter Outlook didn’t provide a snowfall amount for Boston. 🙁

    All us viewers want to know is “how much” and “when”. I do get the idea that it’s going to be a FRONT LOADED snow season though. 🙂

    Boston average = 48 inches (give or take).

    1. That’s because forecasting a snow amount for an entire season is basically impossible. You can guess one. And you can guess it based on your overall thoughts – but one number is never going to really do the job of representing anything realistically.

      Yes I ask for inches and tenths for the contest, but that’s because it’s for fun.

      In my actual winter outlook, I will give a 10 inch range, and even that is pushing it. There are just simply too many variables in play.

      Also, not so sure about “front loaded” especially when forecasting the pattern that would prevent or allow a healthy snowstorm or two later in the season (which it’s actually more likely due to upper air and ocean climatology) is even more difficult.

  24. I wasn’t paying much attention to this minor overnight/early morning system, but I think a small area of rain made it further north than most models expected?

      1. This might be an example though, for sometime down the road, of how you suddenly end up getting 1-2 or 1-3 inch snowfall that only showed up about 12 hrs before the event actually happened.

    2. They had it further north at one point, then all the high res short range guidance shunted everything south and stayed that way, until late last night …

      In this case it’s about a 50 mile difference in a boundary position that changed the path from mainly offshore to over most of southeastern New England.

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