Saturday November 22 2025 Forecast (8:12AM)

106 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

A wave of low pressure moves by just to our south this morning to midday sending a rain shield across a good portion of the region – 30 to 50 miles further north than previously expected due to the position of the front it’s on being not as far south. After a wet morning especially in eastern CT, RI, southeastern and eastern MA, we’ll see a dry-out by midday and a clearing trend northwest to southeast this afternoon as the departing low pressure wave pulls the front out to sea. A weak low pressure area coming our way via the Great Lakes on Sunday will send some more clouds back across our sky (mixed with some sunshine). This can produce a rain and/or snow shower in the region mainly Sunday evening but for the most part we’re looking at a dry day. High pressure builds in with fair weather Monday, but the high slides away Tuesday and the warm front from low pressure heading into the Great Lakes moves our way, bringing clouds back yet again and eventually a period of rain, mainly at night. This lifts north and east out of our region by early Wednesday but we’ll be in a rather mild, moist south to southwest air flow that day ahead of a cold front that trails the parent low exiting the Great Lakes and heading for southeastern Canada. That front brings us the chance for additional rain showers with the mild air in place the day before Thanksgiving, so while the weather could be much worse for travel and pre-holiday errands, it could be better too.

TODAY: Overcast morning including a period of rain – steadiest and heaviest along and south of I-90. Clearing trend northwest to southeast this afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH morning, NW 5-15 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy in the evening with a rain or snow shower possible. Clearing overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Clouding over. Chance of rain late, especially western areas. Highs 43-50. Wind calm then SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 43-50 evening, may rise slightly overnight. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Areas of fog early. Highs 55-62. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

The front that brings Wednesday’s showers should clear the coast and be offshore pre-dawn Thanksgiving, which looks dry with a sun/cloud mix and high temps in the 45-55 range regionwide along with a moderate westerly breeze. We then experience a dry stretch with a colder trend Friday 11/28 and Saturday 11/29 – maybe a passing snow flurry from a disturbance moving through at some point but no issues for travel. High pressure slides to our south to end November and start December with fair weather and a milder trend.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 2-6)

Trends point to an East Coast ridge to start the period but also a lot more cold air waiting off to the west and north. As the ridge gives way to this colder air gradually, a battle zone results and brings the chance of some unsettled weather at some point during this period. It remains to be seen if this will take place in a couple events or one larger, longer-duration event. Something to monitor.

106 thoughts on “Saturday November 22 2025 Forecast (8:12AM)”

  1. Thanks, as always, TK !

    I never got to read those 2 articles you posted yesterday re: the type of SSW that might be coming (I don’t even remember the name), but anyhow, I will go back to yesterday’s blog and read and re-read them today 🙂

    Wordle: 3, missed by 1 letter in 2. I’ll take it !!

  6. Good job on Wordle Tom!

    You say you were off by one letter on the second guess. On my second guess all I had was one yellow letter!

    I was lucky to get it in four.

  8. Was quite disappointed in the channel 5 Winter outlook last night. They NEVER made a snowfall prediction. The best we got was that the Winter would be highly variable and that IF we received average snow it would seem like a lot since past years have been so lean.

    Almost like they were chicken shit to give a prediction.

    EXTREMELY disappointed.

    BTW is Dan Leonard Harvey’s son??

      2. He did.

        Towards the end of yesterday’s blog, Philip expressed a somewhat similar sentiment about the ch 5 winter outlook and TK replied to Philip’s post.

          1. Well that didn’t help much. Some nice information, but not what I want to see. I guess I’ll have to wait for TK’s Winter Outlook.

            I am leaning below average once again. Not buying anything remotely resembling a snowy Winter.

    2. Me as well as they bait you in & there is not much from it as maybe this or that , same old tune .

        1. Here’s the thing though…

          They’re given x amount of time and the news director wants everybody to do a segment. The aim in their winter forecast is to give people an overview of the overall pattern and how it might play out.

          I think in the end yes a lot of people want #’s, but what purpose does it actually serve? You want one number for Boston for 4 months? I do it for fun on the contest, and give a 10 inch range on my winter forecast, which is still “too specific” if you think about it. We are sometimes using 10 inch ranges on one storm, nevermind the entire season’s worth of snowfall.

          I have no issues with how Ch 5 presented their outlook. The take-away was a lot of variability and somewhere in the vicinity of normal for snowfall as a general idea. IMO that’s good enough. I mean NOAA / CPC doesn’t really issue a seasonal snow accumulation forecast either. 🙂

          I’ll still do what I usually do and venture the educated guesses for the major cities, but 1 storm this way or that way and it’s an entirely different ballgame, no matter what the overall pattern is.

          To answer your question about Dan Leonard. Harvey has 2 daughters but no sons.

          Anyway Harvey’s middle name is Leonard. His last name is Moskowitz.

          1. Thanks for info on Harvey. Re: Other stuff. we agree to disagree. Ch 5 could easily have given a range for Boston, but chose not to. To me that is a cop out.
            Sure season is likely to be variable, but like you they
            EASILY could have given a 10 inch range with a caveat if necessary.

            I would have felt much better if they said
            Boston 30-40 inches or whatever number they
            had in mind. It was a TOTAL LET DOWN, period.

            When Harvey was involved and was on with Dr. Cohen, they ALWAYS gave a range, which in my opinion was much better.

          2. Regarding Harvey really ?? Do a lot of tv folks not use there real names , really surprised I guess .

            1. It’s kind of like in music – though not as common.

              We watch many people on TV, hear many people on radio, and listen to many music artists who have different names than the ones we know them by. 🙂

  9. Thank you TK. Up to 40 from 38. 0.14 rain.

    Please keep rain away from Plymouth. Wishing Sue and all who make parade happen a very successful day.

  10. Thank you TK! Unfortunately it is rather miserable in Plymouth right now. Two in a row after have a good streak of decent weather on parade day.

    Wordle: 4

    1. Nice, 4 seems to be the score of the day, except for Tom!

      Hope the parade goes off well and the rain stops!

    2. Yeah it’s very disappointing considering how optimistic I had been.

      Sadly, I opted upon waking up this morning to go the stay-home-and-watch-on-TV route instead of going in person.

      It’s not that the rain bothers me. It doesn’t. You know I’m not one to complain about any weather. I tolerate extreme heat, frigid cold, rain, snow, wind, etc. I think everybody knows that crazy side of me by now.

      My reasoning was this: I had gotten a quick-peaking but nasty cold virus earlier this week, but I still have a lot of lingering post nasal congestion and the upper respiratory (including lungs) have some work to do to clear themselves. I didn’t really want to put myself at risk of prolonging all of it and maybe aggravating it or weakening the immune system, so I’m going to watch this one here. I was looking forward to getting some great photos and seeing the return of the UMass Amhearst band which I love. Please tell them to come back next year and I’ll work on the weather. 😉

      2. Tk my wife & I had this cold a couple of weeks ago & it kicked my ass , very strong virus & I am still trying to finalize the end as it’s the virus that keeps on giving., feel better . I need to keep sickness out of the house as my wife is have a major / significant surgery right after New Year & she needs to be strong & sickness free

      2. To be honest though, they still pull off an awesome parade no matter what. I was there last year in a deluge and it was still great!

          1. It will be a little lighter yes. It was lighter last year over the dry years I was there.

  13. Take good care, TK.

    My snow prediction for Boston is 18.6 inches; 14.2 inches for Providence; 29.9 inches for Worcester. A mostly mild winter overall. And no, we will not be having a “December to remember” in terms of cold and snow.

  14. TK, hoping that your respiratory infection resolves. It’s tough in this kind of weather. Cool and damp is both conducive to a higher prevalence of upper respiratory infections and lingering symptoms.

    1. I’m definitely getting better. I just didn’t want to chance reversing or slowing the recovery with as much decorating and holiday project work as I have in the next 8 days. 🙂

      Watching the parade on TV is not as good as being there, but it’s better than not seeing it at all. 🙂

  16. An interesting but short-lived cold air intrusion over Western Europe occurred this week. I say interesting because usually the cold air across Western Europe and especially Northwestern Europe comes from the east. The Dutch used to call it the “Siberian express,” analogous to our expression, the “Montreal express,” when our cold emanated from Canada, particularly to our northwest. But this Arctic outbreak came from the north. A buckling of the jet stream allowed cold air to penetrate the British Isles, the low countries, and other places. No record-breaking cold, but cold nonetheless, and some healthy snow amounts across Northeastern England, especially in the hilly terrain. During this 3-day stretch, it was colder in, say, York England, than it was in much of Eastern Europe. That’s fairly unusual this time of year. Ukraine, for example, was quite mild. Even Moscow wasn’t that cold.

    Looking ahead, much milder air will be the norm next week as the dominant southwesterly takes over (temps could reach the mid 50s by later in the week). This will be accompanied by the usual on and off light rain or simply gray conditions. Dutch forecasters, known to be sober-minded, are not lending credence to anything special happening in December in terms of weather in The Netherlands.

  17. America’s Hometown Thanksgiving Parade is off to a WET start for consecutive years. Oh well. 🙁

    Hopefully the wet streak will end and be sunny for a change next year and we can watch for TK on TV. 🙂

    1. I was there last year and got thoroughly drenched.

      Funny story: I caught a t-shirt they were tossing into the crowd, and it was tightly rolled up, and I stashed it under my raincoat and used it periodically to wipe off my phone so I could take better pics. Not ideal, but it worked.

      I was so cold and soaked when I left there I couldn’t even really work my fingers at all .. I barely got the last few photos in.

      The ride back to the courthouse parking lot on the shuttle bus was the first step back to feeling human. Fogged up windows but good heat blasting on the bus. Got to the car and I had a dry fleece jacket in there waiting for me, so I shed the upper wet layer and replace it with that. Once my hands were movable enough to drive, I took myself for a quick fast food lunch and finished recovering in the parking lot there before driving home.

      Again I am sad that I didn’t do this again, but I know based on current health, it was the better choice to do what I did today. 🙂 No regrets.

  18. This is to go with Philip’s post above concerning the 0Z EURO

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025112200&fh=300&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Temperatures

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2025112200&fh=300&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025112200&fh=306&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025112200&fh=312&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    This is a pretty cold solution with an ARCTIC HIGH involved.

    WILL this verify? Stay tuned. 12Z Euro should be interesting.
    I will REALLY take notice IF it is still there. My bet is that
    it will be GONE on the 12Z run OR at least not nearly the same.

    1. We will watch guidance again being all over the place because it’s not going to know what to do with the disturbances that will no doubt mark the boundary region between the high pressure ridge and the much colder air to the W & N.

      They key for me is not to find the run that has “the storm” on it and see if that will verify, because I could literally pick a high pressure area and see if that verifies too. No difference in method. The key is to watch the trends, staring with ensembles, and working toward more detailed outcomes with time.

  19. Thanks TK! Rain has a bit of a punch to it this morning here on South Coast – feels like November has been above normal precipitation wise in this part of state

  21. I was also disappointed that David Williams wasn’t part of the Winter Outlook segment. Yes, he’s only the night weekend met, but I still like the way he presents the weather.

    I hope he’s still with the station.

  22. Thanks TK.

    It poured for awhile here this morning in Coventry and we received nearly a quarter inch of rain.

    1. Just take you two fingers on the screen, spread them apart slightly to zoom, and voilà, problem solved.

    2. Probably because it’s an iPhone. There’s a reason I never have gone with them and never will. 🙂

      I don’t have any issues like this with Android. Far superior.

  24. It don’t find it far fetched at all that the GFS and Euro continue to toy with an accumulating snow event(s) in early December. Active pattern and an increasing amount of cold air becoming available from the PV stretch or wave reflection event (whatever we want to call it) as well as a favorable MJO phase. Not saying it’s going to happen but it’s an entirely viable solution.

    I do believe we get a region wide 6”+ snow event in SNE this December and Boston breaks the streak. Most of SNE sees a white Christmas as well. I also like our chances this year for at least normal snow with the weak ENSO and the easterly QBO that JR talked about in his forecast. 49” would seem like a winter blitz this year compared to the last three seasons. We are overdue.

    1. We are overdue for sure, but I fear we will be disappointed.
      That being said, it does seem likely we will see something prior to the end of the year. Fingers crossed for a white Christmas.
      If we are going to have yet another below average season, at least give us a White Christmas. 6 inches or so will do nicely. Enough to be festive, but not enough to be disruptive.

    1. Seriously, the above is a very dramatic web cam shot of
      Flagstaff. Not sure I have seen a webcam as dramatic as this.
      I may be very biased, but WOW!

  32. We’re close to .30 inches of rain this morning.

    The models were going for .00 (24 hrs) ago.

    I’d pay the same 0 attention to anything much beyond a few days. It’s nearly unreliable.

  34. My caution to all: Don’t let the social media hype from the unqualified have tricked you into thinking that the moment you finish Thanksgiving Dinner the weather pattern is permanently in mid winter mode until sometime in March. It never does that here. It never has done that here (despite what some people say to the contrary – statistics will show that this notion is incorrect). It’s not how the season works. We have our anomalies, yes. But we also have our long term typicals, driven by the indices ongoing.

    Time to ignore that noise on social media and focus on real messages from qualified people. 🙂 Spread the word!

    1. You are indeed correct. Growing up I seem to remember that
      a switch would go off as early as the 5th of December until about the 15th-18th. It is then that Winter would start around here.

      Lately, who knows. We shall see this year, IF we even go to Winter mode. 🙂

      Seems like there will be a battle setting up in December. Which side will we end up on? I’d sat the warm side, but will trend to the cold side for at least a bit. Hopeful that bit will
      include Christmas. 🙂

      No matter what, looking forward to how it shakes out.

  35. I meant to note above .. the SE ridge that appears next week is temporary – though may reappear a few times. It’s not so much a product of La Nina (but partially is). It’s also to be a product of an amplifying jet stream which is a result of PV disruption.

    This is one of the things I refer to when I say don’t assume that PV disruption means instant freeze wherever you happen to be. It can, but it also doesn’t mean it will.

    When you turn the jet stream into a wavy rope, what does that mean? It means there are cores of cold and cores of warmth. That’s the whole natural thing that takes place, but for some reason alot of the social media wish-casters choose for some reason to ignore the fact there are going to be warm ridges as well as cold troughs. They just WANT the cold trough and the snow to be where they are so they hyper-focus on it. However, real meteorologists know much better than that. We have to remind many people the same thing year after year – for some reason – but we do it anyway. Hopefully there will come a day where this is more commonly remembered for events like this 🙂

  37. 12/4 on the GFS – around the same time the Euro was showing an accumulating snow threat.

    No surprise what the models are showing really – the colder air dips into the western and central US first which drives the SE ridge north temporarily into the NE before the colder air spreads east. Its going to take into the first week of December for this transition to happen. It’s during that transition when we are on the boundary of the approaching cold and retreating SE ridge where we have the potential for a storm to ride up along that boundary. Decent chance in my opinion for a snow or mix/changeover event in that time period.

    It would actually be best if the core of the cold stays to our west and north a little with a little bit of SE ridge flex. That will keep the storm track closer to us. Mike Masco alluded to that in his post above.

  38. My son is skiing up at Stowe today for their opening weekend. They opened with 59 trails, many on 100% natural snow. I believe this is their highest trail count on opening day ever and by a lot.

    My son said it was mid winter powder and packed powder conditions from mid mountain up. A little crusty at the base due to some melting and refreezing. Natural snow was pole deep on the Nosedive trail. He sent me these photos:

    https://imgur.com/a/gX4ArTX#8JuUvuO

    https://imgur.com/a/gX4ArTX#Cp9dCAc

    https://imgur.com/a/gX4ArTX#T2lqk6W

    2. Skied there once in the late 60s. Went with a college classmate who said he was a solid intermediate skier. He couldn’t ski worth a lick. Anyhow, loved STOWE, especially MT. Mansfield over Spruce Peak. 🙂 🙂

    1. It’ll change many more times over the next two weeks. But 12z was showing what I was talk about above, if the SE ridge is squashed too much, everything gets shunted south. The closer the boundary is to us the better.

  40. I have just published my winter outlook in 2 places…

    1) A separate page on the blog similar to the snow contest pages.
    2) A regular post (like the daily forecast post).

    Until I update the regular daily forecast post tomorrow morning, the winter outlook will now sit as the most recent post, so make sure you’re on this thread if you want to continue to comment here today / tonight. Of course feel free to comment on the winter forecast post – I believe comments are open there for about 5 days before they automatically turn off (WordPress setting).

    If you have any questions on the outlook or see any glaring errors, let me know. I wrote it over 3 days and about as many hours, and only did limited proof-reading, so I’m sure there are a few bloopers there. 😉

  41. Go here to enter your #’s for the snowfall contest. https://www.woodshill.net/?page_id=15285

    Once you click that link, just leave a standard comment (it will have your name on it) with your snowfall guesses. Make sure you do it in the format I posted in the main message to avoid confusion. After you enter your numbers, click the tab on the left that brings you back to today’s post if you want to return to this comments section.

    I have posted the format we need to use (inches and tenths) and the cities. You do not need to guess all of them. You can guess 1, 2, 5, whatever. Or you can just sit back and watch and see how it goes.

      1. Feel free to keep track! I did set it up so people can enter the guesses and they should be OK, but we’ll see how that goes. 🙂

  42. The ground, streets, everything is still wet and it’s clear and calm. I wonder if it could get a bit icy?

    1. Yeah, Tom. I just came in from putting the car in the garage and the earlier fog has dissipated and the temperature has dropped to exactly 32. The surfaces have frosted up. I am concerned about black ice.

      1. Hi Captain !

        Hope all has been going well !

        Leaving dinner, the breeze has picked up, the ground fog is gone and the roads were drying.

        My wife and daughter were giving me graph about black ice, but I thought I had the last laugh because the back of my wife’s ford F150 had water on it which had a very thin film of ice on it, but they wouldn’t accept that 🙂 🙂 🙂

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