Saturday December 13 2025 Forecast (7:51AM)

169 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 13-17)

The second weekend of December 2025 will be a cold one, and will include some snow for our region. There is a clipper-type low pressure system that will be racing our way, having taken a southeastward dive to our west then an eastward turn to pass just south of us as it begins to interact with another disturbance passing to our north. This triggers the low pressure area to start strengthening as it goes by. This quick-moving and fairly flat system has neither time nor orientation to become a bigger system in terms of impact for our region, but will produce a general light snow late tonight into Sunday, reinforcing cold air as it departs with Monday being a blustery day with well below normal temperatures for mid December. Another small disturbance coming our way from Canada via the Great Lakes may produce some snow showers and very minor accumulations Monday night but will quickly exit by early Tuesday. Heading toward the middle of next week, high pressure moves to our west then south and allows a temperature moderation with dry weather expected.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Becoming overcast. Light snow develops from west to east late evening and overnight. Lows 21-28. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast morning-midday with snow although mixed snow and rain possible Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, with snow accumulation a coating to 2 inches in general except a swath of 2 to 4 inches possible from Plymouth County MA to Providence RI and 10 to 20 miles either side, favoring southward. Slow clearing trend west to east afternoon. Highs 27-34, mildest Cape Cod. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Early clouds linger Cape Cod, otherwise clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.

MONDAY: Sunny start, then clouds return later. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely with some minor accumulation expected. Lows 13-20. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 18-22)

The previously-mentioned up-and-down temperature pattern expectation is forecast with more confidence at this point, with a quick warm-up early in the period while low pressure cuts across the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada, dragging a sharp cold front with a rain shower band through sometime between late December 18 and early December 19, followed by a shot of cold air that is short-lived before another moderation and weaker low and frontal system coming through with a minor precipitation threat mid period (mix/rain if system track is north, mix/snow if system track is further south). A brief moderation potential with this before colder air returns again to end the period. The winter solstice occurs at 10:03 a.m. EST on December 21.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 23-27)

The up-and-down temperature pattern continues but with a leaning toward the colder side overall. An additional episode or two of precipitation possible but early indications for no major storminess to occur, more overrunning type events with our region on the colder side of the boundary between Canadian cold and warmth to the south. This would favor frozen over liquid precipitation for our area.

169 thoughts on “Saturday December 13 2025 Forecast (7:51AM)”

  3. Thanks TK !

    4 also in Wordle

    Any now, for the models to make that 15-25 mile adjustment northward in the last 24-30 hrs, to correctly simulate what will happen, in this particular scenario.

    Reply

  4. Good morning and thank yiu TK

    27 now, up from low of 26

    Ocean: 47

    Still looking like an inch or so for Boston. Festive is,all.

    Wordle: 5.
    I was no where for awhile.
    Happy to have gotten it at all.
    Curious to see how others did.
    Not that it was an unknown word, but traditional starting words didn’t yield much information, plus I did make a mistake as I foolishly tried a word with a letter I.n A position that was already known to be incorrect.

    Reply

  9. 6z euro has .15 to .20 qpf for Boston.
    AT 10:1 that would be 1.5 to 2 inches. I think ratio may be a bit more than 10:1, so perhaps 2 inches or a tad more for Boston. Of course Only if the 6z euro is correct.

    Reply

      1. A.M.E. – hence my Plymouth to Providence axis for 3 updates and the potential mix Outer Cape / Nantucket. I think it plays out like this.

        Reply

    2. YES !!!!

      And it’s translating to the surface with temps in Boston in the 30s today and still near 32F tonight.

      That more SW flow above is pushing the sfc temp gradient further north, ie, the precip will be further north.

      This will be the Thanksgiving day rain event in colder version.

      Reply

  12. Compare 12z vs 00z HRRR

    It’s still not there yet, it will be a little further north again tonight at 00z, it’s getting there, as TK reiterated above, which milk verify his forecast.

    Reply

  13. I join the merry crowd with a 4 in Wordle.

    JpDave – since one of your guesses was a mistake, you should be at the 4-party too! 🙂

    Reply

    1. Good job. Thank you for your kindness. Sometimes I play this game with the best of them and sometimes like a complete idiot.
      I think it has something to do with my mindset while playing.
      For example If I have SNOW on my mind like today/tomorrow, then my brain is apt to wonder. OR I am just making excuses. 🙂

      Reply

  14. I just saw something really cool out my window (facing NW). That part of my sky view is often an approach path for geese heading for the school fields about 1/4 mile to my west northwest. There was a very tight formation of geese heading toward the field area, and the formation was so tight and in just the right shape to briefly look like a large jet airplane, which also sometimes fly that path as they set themselves to approach Hanscom to my west.

    Reply

    2. Nice. Around here, we’ve seen much smaller flocks of geese fly right over the house, likely on the way to Jamaica Pond.
      And do they ever HONK as they fly by.

      Really cool to see.

      Reply

      1. I know the Canada Geese annoy some people, and they are called “invasive”. They don’t bother me, and if people wanna slap the term “invasive” on birds that move around to survive, or come back to the same places that help them survive, they probably should look at themselves. What are they “invading?” I think we can just learn to live together. They’re adjusting to us quite nicely, IMO. 🙂

        Reply

        1. Agree. I don’t mind them at all, although I must say trying to avoid piles of goose excrement on the golf course is quite irritating. And they S**t like dogs!!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

          But around here, they’re fine. can even feed them right out of your hand.

          Reply

              1. If I may politely disagree. Between geese and turkeys at barns we’ve been at, they can do significant damage to a person…..especially of defending a nest.

                Reply

                1. Turkey’s are different than geese. We agree to disagree. btw, I wouldn’t fear either one of them. I have chased a few turkey’s out of my yard. Even had one sleeping on my porch. 🙂

  15. My wordle experience today:

    First, I will put in whatever 5 letter word comes to mind

    After 2 guesses, I had the 1st and 4th letters in the right spot, but, I just didn’t know what worked with them.

    So, I sacrificed getting it correct in 4, to put 5 new letters in on the 3rd guess and very luckily, uncovered the missing 3 letters.

    Got lucky to put them correctly together in guess 4

    Reply

    2. I do that as well, but nothing worked for me today and I made that stupid mistake, which I also do all the time! I think of a word and use it WITHOUT checking the known letters!!!!

      Reply

    1. Yup and I believe we’ll be doing that again about 9pm tonight (same trend), comparing the new 00z run to this current, 12z run.

      Reply

      1. But compare the 6Z run to the 12Z run, IF anything there is ever so slight a shift back to the South on the 12Z run.
        Very slight.

        Reply

  17. Assuming we don’t sacrifice some QPF to overcoming dry air on the northern precip shield, I think Logan might have a shot at 2-2.5 inches of snow and I’m hoping to get 3 or 4 inches in marshfield.

    Reply

    3. You & I Tom should get over the 2 inch mark . Hope the drive into work tomorrow will be fine leaving at 5:30 am

      Reply

  18. At this point, I don’t expect much more adjustment in short range guidance after today’s 12z set. RRFS is wildcard because it’s still an infant in comparison. I’m still watching it really closely for all the different types of events we get to pick out weaknesses & strengths, biases & tendencies.

    Reply

      1. Yes, it’s better than the NAM but quite a bit at this point. It still has a few things that need polishing, but that’ll get done.

        Reply

    1. That depiction is not O.E. – it’s mid level from the west. Look at the next panel where it is depicted as rain offshore.

      It’s also the 12km NAM, which is basically a waste of computer processing time.

      Reply

  22. I don’t play Wordle (yet) … I find amusing Josh Wardle’s original name for this game he developed was “Mr. Bugs’ Wordy Nugz”. Sounds more like a box of chicken nuggets with messages written in the coating. I think the play on his own last name works much better.

    Reply

    2. This reminds me of a joke name we had for one of our new software products. The lead architect was a British guy with a PhD in math from Oxford and a last name starting with G.

      “Dr. G’s Fiddly Bits”

      Reply

  23. On the 12Z models that have run, they generally are a bit more North than the 6Z runs and certainly the 0Z runs, but a few are about the same as their 6Z counterparts.

    So, all-in-all not much has changed.

    Will continue to monitor.

    Reply

  24. On my long and varied soundtrack of holiday music today, my current listen is the Herb Alpert & The Tijuana Brass Christmas Album. This will always make me think of my parents but with more smiles than anything.

    Herb Alpert is coming down the home stretch of his touring days and I have tickets to see him in Providence on May 10 2026. I’m very much looking forward to it. He’s got the TJB with him on the tour and playing ALL the classics + more.

    In the much nearer future, I will be in Milford this evening to attend a performance of the Greater Milford Community Chorus with an orchestra accompanying them. I’ve seen their regular performance several times (which took place over 2 days last week) but this will be my first with the full orchestra. My dear friend and her husband are in the chorus. Looking forward to it!

    I could not attend either of the regular shows last week because of the Angel of Hope vigil Saturday and running the live stream for Nathan’s concert on Sunday, so this is a nice alternative and finally gets me to see this version of their performance. 🙂

    Reply

  25. I remember from the Cambridge reservoir across the street from my Belmont home has a terrible time with the geese fowling the water. And I recall issues at the barn with them. So looked to see what and why. They are considered a nuisance rather than invasive

    Key Reasons for Conflict:
    Overpopulation: Humans inadvertently created ideal habitats (short grass, ponds, no predators), leading to large, year-round flocks.
    Excessive Droppings: Geese produce a lot of feces, contaminating water (harming fish, closing beaches) and fouling parks, golf courses, and lawns, potentially spreading bacteria like E.coli.
    Aggressive Behavior: During nesting season, they become very territorial and may attack people, children, or pets, especially if fed.
    Ecological Damage: They overgraze vegetation, damaging shorelines, causing erosion, and reducing plant diversity, impacting other wildlife.
    Agricultural & Aviation Hazards: They eat crops and pose significant risks to aircraft by flying into engines during takeoff/landing.
    Why “Invasive” vs. “Nuisance”?
    While not technically an invasive species (which are non-native), their impact mimics that of invasive species due to human actions, causing significant economic and environmental harm, thus requiring management.

    Reply

      1. I don’t mind them either. Swans are now considered invasive and while I understand the reasons, I think they are beautiful.

        Reply

  26. This seems like it will be a nice fluffy snow even along the coast so pretty easy to shovel. Any possibility of ice forming underneath from initial rain?

    Reply

    1. The only initial rain would be over Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, if that even happens.

      Otherwise, it’s a 100% snow event.

      Reply

  27. Thru 12 days in December, Logan has a -7F temp anomaly.

    Its highest temp has been 49F.

    It has seen highs of 40F up to 49F, five times.

    It has seen highs in the 30s, six
    times.

    It has seen highs in the 20s, (29F) once.

    A January/February like start.

    Data from Norton NWS climate section.

    Reply

    1. It has seen lows in the teens, 4 times

      Lows in the twenties, 5 times

      Lows in the low thirties, 3 times.

      Every night has been 32F or colder.

      Reply

      1. The AMO had a temporary spike to the other side of the long term positive phase (yes, these happen). Note the response. I’m pretty certain there’s a much larger correlation to long term weather and climate with this index than we fully understand yet.

        Reply

  28. Thanks, TK!

    We have gone from overcast to partly sunny back to overcast already this morning.
    I know that this is unscientific (I am not a scientist! 🙂 ), but it looks like it could snow! 🙂

    I am not into Wordle either…yet. Maybe in 2026!

    However, you Wordlers are in good company. Pope Leo plays Wordle each day.

    ROME (AP) — Pope Leo XIV opened a virtual meeting with American Catholic young people Friday by revealing a closely held pontifical secret: He uses a different Wordle start word each day.

    Leo divulged his strategy for the popular New York Times online game before fielding questions via videoconference about artificial intelligence, social media and the future of the Catholic Church.

    The Chicago-born pope was hooked up from the Vatican to speak remotely to the National Catholic Youth Conference, an annual Catholic rally held this year in Indianapolis, via a feed from U.S. Catholic broadcaster EWTN.

    After Leo’s election in May, his brother John Prevost revealed that Leo plays Wordle every day and that the brothers compare scores, as many friends and family do.

    Reply

  30. I love Canadian Geese! I see them flying by just looking out the window every day. I fell in love with them years ago when they used to inhabit the Boston Public Garden. Plenty of them here in Quincy near the water. 🙂

    Reply

    1. Yes it’s a disturbance ahead of tomorrow’s system. Was actually well modeled by the short-range guidance. Most of its snow is being eaten by mid level dry air, but some tiny flakes are reaching the ground in a few places.

      Reply

  36. Read from a social media hyper that some areas of Long Island will go a Winter Storm warning by this afternoon – can’t these guys just be satisfied that it’s finally snowing?!?! They still try to overhype a relatively straightforward system

    Reply

  37. It is snowing pretty good in central Indiana in the band that is heading our way.

    Just because the Thanksgiving rain event ended up further north (a wave on a temp gradient), doesn’t mean this one will. And they may not exactly be the exact same setup.

    But, the models that deliver 1 inch in Boston do have 2-4, 3-5 on the south coast and if this does a 50 mile shift, then advisories/bordering on watch/warning criteria isn’t absolutely crazy. It’s not likely, but it’s not 0% probability.

    Plymouth ended up close to .5 melted, Marshfield .4 and Logan .2 Thanksgiving morning. And the models looked less impressive 24 hrs out compared to what they are simulating today.

    Reply

    1. We’ll know tomorrow, but I fear we are hoping for too much.
      Would be nice to see a shift North, but probably not likely.
      I keep watching each hourly run of the HRRR and I get the impression, that although very very slight, I get the sense that
      it is nudging Northward.

      Reply

      1. Agreed.

        Don’t get me wrong.

        If I were on TV right now, I’d play it safe and go 1 in Boston, 2 in marshfield and 3 in Plymouth.

        But I think the trend is for that upper low over the northeastern Great Lakes to be a little further west-southwest, which turns the 500 mb flow just a smidge more southwest and lifts it further north.

        So, I think those numbers above need at least another inch added to them. We’ll see 🙂

        Reply

  38. Weather.gov finally fixed itself.

    We are still at 33 after a 30 low.

    Brrr day to visit Mac’s tree on Sutton Common. It’s always a degree or so colder and windy. I met son, DIL and grandson there at 9:30 and am heading back with granddaughter in a bit. We will visit Polly’s gift shop too….a very favorite place to go

    Reply

    1. Should be some partial clearing between the disturbance moving through now and the arrival of the Sunday system, but it will probably be brief.

      Reply

  42. It’s so close because as the trof approaches and sharpens the flow really to due SW, the back edge of the precip may slow to clear eastern areas with less of a push due eastward.

    95% thinks Boston is 2-2.5 and under, but 5% of me things Boston could get to 4 because the models are still playing catchup on the evolution of this trof and it keeps trending more and more in our favor with each 6 hrs and we’re still 18 hrs away.

    Reply

      2. Salters yes, because the air temps most of the time it’s snowing will be less than 32F, so without salt, the roads will grease up.

        Obviously less confident if plows are needed. I’ve seen plows out at 3” of snowfall, so, I’d give that a 50/50 shot.

        Reply

          1. Oh, I think the pavement will be impacted and will need salt, sand or whatever they throw down these days 🙂 🙂 🙂

            I just don’t know what amt makes towns decide to plow.

            But make no mistake, Sunday morning it will be in the upper 20s and slowly falling, so this will impact pavements.

            Reply

      1. I love a white Christmas but for the reason you mentioned i am not a fan of snow on the day except moody snow. Too many people traveling

        Reply

  45. Looks like the Philadelphia area might be the bullseye for this system. Winter Weather Advisory has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for that area.

    Reply

    1. It’s an older model. Not sure how reliable it actually is. Probably shouldn’t even be included in the model suit.

      Reply

  47. Jimmy James, that Tomer Berg tweet you posted this morning, so spot on !!!!!!!

    Models still catching up with the evolution of the approaching trof.

    24 hrs ago, the 500 mb flow was too WSW.

    It’s getting more SW with time and the question is, are the models caught up now at 18z or will they need through 00z and 06z to figure it out?

    I’m starting to think they need advisories to the mass pike and at least a discussion internally if anyone could meet warning criteria in southernmost areas?

    Reply

  48. I understand it’s the NAM and this is relatively a minor event, with that perspective, the 18z had a NAM nutty on it during the 18z run.

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  49. After review of 12z guidance – no changes to this morning’s discussion & forecast.

    Reminder: A lot of mid level dry air in place to overcome initially.

    Reply

    1. It must be noted, if you look at their point forecast, you’ll note they are just on the lower end of each range, so it’s not so much an increase but more of a solidifying of the previous idea.

      Reply

  51. Thank you, TK.

    Did my long run today, but unlike yesterday and the day before, today I was cold during the run and still feel a bit chilled a half hour after the run. The temperature is obviously not the problem. The `real feel’ is higher, too. It’s the lack of sun that does it. I’ll take a sunny day in the 20s over cloudy in the 30s. Some of it may be psychological. and therefore not translatable into `real feel.’

    Reply

    1. I agree with you Joshua. I went out for awhile just after noon and it felt surprisingly COLD.

      Yes, sunshine does make a difference.

      Reply

    1. A.M.E., something I mention periodically, stands for “anticipated model error”, where I utilized known biases to “forecast” how wrong a model forecast will be a set of parameters and that gets applied to my overall use (or non-use) of the guidance as a forecasting tool. Sometimes the A.M.E. method is applied to specific guidance, other times applied to collective guidance as a whole.

      This method requires a lot of observation and a lot of metal “record keeping”. I prefer to memorize it rather than writing it down. If I write it down, I probably won’t refer to it. If I have it in memory, I’ll pull it to use. 🙂

      Most professional forecasters use one form or another of this method. I just opted to put a name to it. 🙂

      Reply

  54. Today was 1 degree warmer at Boston than yesterday, and quite a bit less windy. The lack of sun and a couple degrees higher on the dew point probably made it feel colder to some people.

    Reply

  55. Alarming news from Brown University’s campus in Providence, where a mass shooting took place late this afternoon. The suspect(s) hasn’t yet been apprehended.

    I know this campus well. In my humble opinion, it is the most beautiful urban college campus in America. Safe, too. But now it’s a crime scene. We don’t know how many people were injured. We also know nothing about the suspect(s).

    Reply

  57. I have several good friends and colleagues who live right off of Brown’s campus. One of my friends in Providence has a brother with dementia who she takes care of. You may recall me saying that I was in Providence last winter taking care of him while she was teaching overseas. So, I got to know the campus very well. Attended many events there. Open to the public. I loved walking through that campus. I also am a jury member at the Rhode Island Ethics Bowl (high school competition in which students resolve ethical dilemmas; often involving healthcare), which is held every February at Brown. The faculty, staff, and students there are exceptional. The place has a great vibe.

    My thoughts are with the deceased, their families, but also all the people who are essentially on lockdown, not knowing what to expect next.

    Reply

        1. There was a special tribute to him last night on PBS American Masters. It was a wonderful presentation about his life.

          Reply

  61. Jacob was a guest on WBZ radio’s “The Morgan Show” this evening and he stated that the pattern “should” start to get active around MLK Day with cold continuing as well. 🙂

    He also predicts 50”+ snowfall for the upcoming winter season. Normal is around 48”.

    It is amazing that MLK Weekend is usually ripe for snow around here. Those are my words. 😉

    I don’t usually tune in to that show much anymore, glad I did tonight.

    Reply

    1. The MLK stat is actually not true.

      It’s no more likely than any other point in the winter.

      This should definitely be known by now.

      Reply

  62. 38 degrees currently. It’s going to have to cool
    Off a bit for this snow to stick. What an awful tragedy in Providence – and they haven’t caught this guy yet!! And so many holiday activities going on tomorrow. Very troubling

    Reply

  66. Snowing moderately here in Coventry CT at 29F and about a half inch so far. Snow is accumulating and sticking on the pavement.

    Reply

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