DAYS 1-5 (MAY 9-13)

After just getting rid of one upper low, we have another move in from the west this weekend, bringing some unsettled weather to our region. Today and Sunday will have some notable differences, however, despite the “unsettled” label overall. As a broad surface low moves across the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada, we’ll see a warm front lift northward in advance of it today. This front has already spread its overcast into the region, though some areas did see a colorful Saturday sunrise. A band of rain associated with this front will move northeastward across the area, lasting longer to the west and north while its duration is a little shorter southeast of Boston. This process will take through early afternoon. Later in the afternoon, a trough from the west will bring a more widespread band of showers across the region, which will end early tonight as the trough moves offshore. We’ll end up in a drier zone for a good part of Sunday, which ends up milder than today but several degrees in most of the region with a little more sunshine, though that will be limited by a fair amount of cloudiness. As the cold front trailing the aforementioned low pressure area moves across our region from west to east, a few showers can accompany it, and I can’t rule out an isolated thunderstorm, though support for these is rather limited. Regardless, most of Sunday (Mother’s Day) will be rain-free and decent for outdoor plans in general. The cold front that comes through later in the day doesn’t make its way too far to the southeast and a wave of low pressure is due to move along it, passing just southeast of New England early Monday. Previously, most guidance was indicating a ribbon of rainfall would occur over most of our region making Monday a wet day. Trends since yesterday has been for the wave to be a bit weaker and further offshore, limiting the rain chances to generally east of I-95 and south of I-90, and concentrated on the overnight and early morning hours of Monday. While many times we’d say this is good news, this time it’s not-so-good news, because abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions persist across our region and rainfall is needed. Regardless, the trend is drier for that, and I also expect fair weather Tuesday as high pressure moves in. However, this is spring in the Northeast, and it should come as no surprise that unsettled weather can return as early as next Wednesday as another upper level low pressure system mover into our region.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. A period of rain morning through midday. Widespread showers west to east mid to late afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH, shifting to SE then S later.

TONIGHT: Cloudy early with showers ending, then partial clearing west to east. Patchy fog develops. Lows 47-54. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Considerable clouds / limited sunshine. A late-day shower possibility and slight chance of a thunderstorm from west to east. Highs 58-65 South Coast, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain mainly RI and southeastern MA overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain early mainly RI and southeastern MA. Highs 58-65. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 55-62. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 14-18)

Upper level low pressure is expected to be over the region as part of a larger scale blocking pattern. Episodes of unsettled weather and temperatures near to below normal can be expected. Despite this, the pattern does not look like it will produce much in the way of widespread beneficial rainfall.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 19-23)

Upper level low pressure departs, replaced by a more west to east flow, up-and-down temperatures including milder to warmer air, and a few shower threats but overall a mostly dry pattern anticipated.