DAYS 1-5 (JULY 13-17)

High pressure sits over our region to start the day today but sinks to the south as the day goes on, opening the door to increasing warmth and humidity which you’ll notice by this afternoon if you’re outside. At the same time, a disturbance that rode over the high pressure ridge to our west will make a run into the region as it weakens later today and this evening, potentially triggering isolated showers and thunderstorms, though the majority of the region will see nothing from that. You may notice a hazier look to the sky today as well. This is from high altitude smoke from fires occurring in Canada. Heat and humidity increases and peaks on Tuesday. A second surge of high altitude smoke will filter the sun a bit more in the afternoon. A cold front will be moving into northern New England and can trigger some strong to severe thunderstorms up there (western Maine, northern to central VT & NH), but that activity is expected to fade as it moves southward, and when the front goes through our region Wednesday morning, only a few showers may survive the trip across the region. While Wednesday is still a fairly hot day with no significant air mass change in terms of temperature, the dew point will drop as some drier air makes its away into the region from the northwest behind the front. I did mention the heat peaks Tuesday, but there is one exception, and that is the South Coast that has a southwest wind Tuesday and is not as hot, but gets a northwest wind on Wednesday, driving the heat into that region, making that day the peak hot one for that area. As our pattern continues to feature a low pressure trough in southeastern Canada and a high pressure ridge to our west, another cold front will move through during Thursday. This front will have limited moisture to work with, and therefore I’m expecting only scattered showers and thunderstorms as opposed to a sweeping line of them. This will introduce cooler and drier air for Friday.

TODAY: Sunshine become filtered by high altitude smoke, then interrupted by some later-day cloudiness including the chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, especially north and west of Boston. Highs 82-89. Dew point climbs to the lower 60s. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High altitude smoke and patchy clouds. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine along with passing clouds. Highs 74-81 Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod, 82-89 remainder of South Coast, 90-97 elsewhere. Dew point climbs to middle / upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A morning shower possible. Highs 80-87 Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod, 88-95 elsewhere. Dew point falls below 60. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point sub-60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible. Highs 83-90. Dew point briefly spikes 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts over 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point stays in 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH but with coastal sea breezes developing.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 18-22)

Expecting a trough in southeastern Canada to deflect incoming disturbances to the southwest of our region over the weekend of July 18-19, so while many forecasts don’t lean this way, mine leans rain-free with seasonable temperatures. The July 20-22 period presents greater chances for showers and thunderstorms along with higher humidity in the scenario I’m expecting.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 23-27)

Higher humidity with shower and t-storm chances early in the period followed by drier weather again. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.