Monday July 13 2026 Forecast (6:58AM)

65 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 13-17)

High pressure sits over our region to start the day today but sinks to the south as the day goes on, opening the door to increasing warmth and humidity which you’ll notice by this afternoon if you’re outside. At the same time, a disturbance that rode over the high pressure ridge to our west will make a run into the region as it weakens later today and this evening, potentially triggering isolated showers and thunderstorms, though the majority of the region will see nothing from that. You may notice a hazier look to the sky today as well. This is from high altitude smoke from fires occurring in Canada. Heat and humidity increases and peaks on Tuesday. A second surge of high altitude smoke will filter the sun a bit more in the afternoon. A cold front will be moving into northern New England and can trigger some strong to severe thunderstorms up there (western Maine, northern to central VT & NH), but that activity is expected to fade as it moves southward, and when the front goes through our region Wednesday morning, only a few showers may survive the trip across the region. While Wednesday is still a fairly hot day with no significant air mass change in terms of temperature, the dew point will drop as some drier air makes its away into the region from the northwest behind the front. I did mention the heat peaks Tuesday, but there is one exception, and that is the South Coast that has a southwest wind Tuesday and is not as hot, but gets a northwest wind on Wednesday, driving the heat into that region, making that day the peak hot one for that area. As our pattern continues to feature a low pressure trough in southeastern Canada and a high pressure ridge to our west, another cold front will move through during Thursday. This front will have limited moisture to work with, and therefore I’m expecting only scattered showers and thunderstorms as opposed to a sweeping line of them. This will introduce cooler and drier air for Friday.

TODAY: Sunshine become filtered by high altitude smoke, then interrupted by some later-day cloudiness including the chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, especially north and west of Boston. Highs 82-89. Dew point climbs to the lower 60s. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High altitude smoke and patchy clouds. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine along with passing clouds. Highs 74-81 Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod, 82-89 remainder of South Coast, 90-97 elsewhere. Dew point climbs to middle / upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A morning shower possible. Highs 80-87 Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod, 88-95 elsewhere. Dew point falls below 60. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point sub-60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible. Highs 83-90. Dew point briefly spikes 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts over 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point stays in 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH but with coastal sea breezes developing.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 18-22)

Expecting a trough in southeastern Canada to deflect incoming disturbances to the southwest of our region over the weekend of July 18-19, so while many forecasts don’t lean this way, mine leans rain-free with seasonable temperatures. The July 20-22 period presents greater chances for showers and thunderstorms along with higher humidity in the scenario I’m expecting.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 23-27)

Higher humidity with shower and t-storm chances early in the period followed by drier weather again. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

65 thoughts on “Monday July 13 2026 Forecast (6:58AM)”

      1. Thanks JpDave, you too !

        This word had a lot of possibilities with that 2nd letter. I got very lucky with my 4th guess.

  4. Thanks TK
    TK was talking about the thunderstorm potential tomorrow in northern New England. Here is Ryan Hanrahan’s thoughts.
    ⚡️ Significant Severe Weather Threat Tuesday ⚡️

    A potentially dangerous severe weather outbreak is expected Tuesday afternoon and evening across northern New England and southern Quebec.

    Destructive straight-line winds and a few strong tornadoes will be possible.

  6. Thanks!

    Wordle 3, almost guessed it in 2 but went with a different word to clear more letters…

  8. I was thinking the same thing. One thing that got my attention in Ryan Hanrahan’s tweet mentioning the possibility of a few strong tornadoes for northern parts of New England.

  11. Wordle was a gift…no skill. Just luck. But I’ll take it. One letter not in correct spot with word 1. First three letters in correct place for word 2

    I set a record for me as it took less than a minute to get the word.

    Joining TJammer with Wordle 3

    1. I’m out on the deck in disappearing shade.

      It’s warm, but the shaded breeze has some comfortable ventilation.

      Can feel it’s not dry, polar air but not wet rag either.

      Trying to hold off with AC, knowing it will be going full time Tuesday probably into Wednesday.

  15. Thanks, TK!

    81/62

    Just came in from the deck, Tom. Our deck faces the west. It’s great in the morning until around 11 when the sun appears over the roof the house. We have a Sunsetter awning that does a nice job giving us shade.

    Hope you’re doing well, Tom, and enjoying your summer days and break. 🙂

    1. Hi Captain.

      Thanks, I’m trying to relax !! 🙂 making a bit of progress.

      Hope all is well with you !!

      1. Stay well and take good care of yourself, amigo!

        I love soccer (and all sports) and have enjoyed the fun and excitement of the World Cup tournament!!! I am getting all of my errands done today (yard work was yesterday to beat the heat) so I can focus on the soccer semis tomorrow and Wednesday!!! 🙂

        1. Nice !

          Yes, looking forward to those matches tomorrow.

          With being off, I’ve watched a majority of the matches. The technical skill is so good, I rarely agree with VAR (:)) and I still struggle with the embellishment to get fouls called. I wish they had a system after the game to post game hand out yellow cards that carry into the next match for the ones that are excessive. I chuckle when the guy is writhing in pain on his shin and the replay shows the opponent made contact with his toe. Despite that, it’s been excellent and I actually think the best overall 4 teams are alive.

  16. Tomorrow, we probably fall short of 100F.

    The warmest 700mb/850mb temps fly overhead around 8pm-5am Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning and …..

    Probably will be dealing with some high/mid cloud debris from the storms in northern New England around the ring of fire retrograding ridge.

    But I think 96-97F around 5pm tomorrow may be quite common.

    Good downsloping wind to the coast and any mixing of dps that aren’t going to be super tropical to begin with might still put 98-100F in play on the typically warm running Obs.

    1. I could see tomorrow night taking a run at warmest night so far this warm season. Seeing 12z GFS projecting 76-78F most of the night in suburbia.

      Even with the high launching pad Wednesday, while the 850 mb temps are warm, it’s cool air advection relatively speaking, so, Wednesday may not be as hot as Tuesday, maybe 92-95F, with high temps midday or early afternoon, then holding steady or dropping a degree or 2.

      1. Don’t get me wrong, it’s going to be hot for 48-72 hrs, it’s just not the typical Bermuda high ridge or central US ridge that bridges in here for 3 days.

        It briefly extends eastward somewhat tomorrow, heat blast, then it’s quickly retrograding westward again, already by Wednesday.

        We’ve had hotter, more uncomfortable longer stretches than this will be.

  17. I “think” Boston had a low temp of 82 one day last week if I am not mistaken. NOT likely to reach that level overnight tomorrow.
    I am thinking somewhere around 78-80. But I do NOT know what the record is for Wednesday.

      1. Yikes !! That’s what gets people, without AC in trouble, those kind of warm nights.

  18. At least the TV folks, based on what I saw yesterday need an adjustment on their Friday forecasts, which if I remember correctly, hinted at 90f hanging in there. Of course, TK is well ahead of them and looks a ton more accurate on his Friday forecast.

    Trof, storm over the Maritimes and we are in NW flow, according to the 12z GFS, 18z, Boston is 81F with a 41F DP and probably not destined to rise much after that (temp)

  20. The average # of 90+ degree days for Boston is 14. I wouldn’t be surprised if this summer ends of doubling that (28).

    Off the top of my head, I believe 30 is the record.

    1. I believe Boston is very near the average already with 3 more days of high heat to come this week.

    2. We’re not heading into a pattern that promotes a lot more 90+ days once we get by mid July. They won’t double the average.

      Also, 4 of their 90+ days were actually 89 (recorded as 90). Thermometer is incorrect and has been since before May.

      So what’s on the books currently is incorrect, and we know they won’t be fixing it.

    3. The record is 30 in 1983 and that record won’t even be approached this summer.

  21. Thanks TK.

    600 dam 500mb ridge centered over Minnesota of all places today. 600 dam used to be a “unicorn” number. The upper end of what’s possible, a model fantasyland production that’s right on the edge of what the atmosphere can actually produce. Now we pretty routinely get 1-2+ in the CONUS every summer.

    1. Some notable 600+ dam occurrences (data from Tim Vasquez).

      * July 11, 1959: ELY, LAS, and WMC make it to 601 dam.
      * August 1-2, 1979: VBG and OAK touched the 600-601 dam range. Oddly enough I was in San Francisco on the 1st and I do remember a heat wave. The DWM never shows a 19700 ft contour opening up, so it appears this is one of the lesser mega-highs on record.
      * July 22, 1988: SLC and ELY touch 600 and 601 dam, respectively. The 600 dam line never makes an appearance on the DWM series.
      * July 7, 1989: There were at least 12 600+ instances this week. The top reading was 602.1 dam at GJT, 7/8/89 at 00Z. The DWM series shows the ultra-rare 600 dam line.
      * June 28-29, 1994: ELP and MAF touch 600.9 and 600.8 dam, respectively, during the big heat wave of 1994. The DWM series shows a nice large 594 dam high, but no 600 line.

      1. Thanks! Definitely have heard of the 1989 event. Does seem a lot more routine these days, fitting with the longer term theme of higher heights overall. I guess I kind of associate it with the best chance of “all time max” heat potential, which there was quite a bit of out West yesterday. Conversely, the pre-July 4th Northeast US heat event was associated with a relatively pedestrian ridge, which I think really cut down on the potential for anything in “all time” territory and a more run of the mill event instead.

  22. Global guidance is trending in the direction of a dry weekend (as indicated in my forecast above).

    Canadian model is on the fence with a dry Saturday and wet Sunday.

    ICON & ECMWF are pretty much dry both days now.

    GFS is on an island by itself with the wetter forecast.

    Same thing happened recently when the guidance tried to make last Monday the wetter day across the entire region (instead of just the South Coast), when it was Tuesday that was going to be the more widespread wetter day.

    This time it’s a mostly dry weekend and a showery start to next week. I’m sticking with that forecast and I suspect the GFS will start to trend away from its current depiction soon. It’s not unusual for this model to have to play “catch-up”.

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