DAYS 1-5 (JULY 12-16)
High pressure continues to provide pleasant summer weather through Monday, but while we have plenty of sunshine, we will see an increase in high altitude smoke from fires in Canada, which will filter the sun. High pressure sinks to our south by Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure tracks across southeastern Canada from west to east. This will bring us a breezy blast of heat with a wind shift from west to northwest early Wednesday as a trough passes by with nothing more than a brief shower chance. A stronger cold front drops into the region on Thursday with a better shower and t-storm chance then.
TODAY: A few patchy clouds otherwise lots of sun becoming filtered by increasing high altitude smoke. Highs 78-85. Dew point under 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: High altitude smoke otherwise clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point under 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine. Some late-day cloud patches. Highs 82-89. Dew point nearing 60. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: High altitude smoke and patchy clouds. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine along with passing clouds. Highs 82-89 South Coast, 90-97 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A morning shower possible. Highs 87-94 except cooler Cape Cod / Islands. Dew point 60+ but may fall to upper 50s. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing later in the day.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible. Highs 81-88. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (JULY 17-21)
Contrary to a lot of guidance, I’m leaning rain-free July 17-19 at this point (a change from my previous outlook), followed by higher humidity and shower / t-storm chances later in the period.
DAYS 11-15 (JULY 22-26)
Higher humidity with shower and t-storm chances early to mid period followed by a drying trend. Temperatures near to above normal.
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 5
After my 4th guess, I had 4 letters all in the correct spot, I had no idea what the word was and only got it by filling in one letter at a time until the word formed/took. 🙂
Nice 5
Not sure I know this word. Don’t now.
I meant know now
Nice 5 Tom
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2026071200&fh=66&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2026071200&fh=90&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
This central US ridge bridges east just enough and for a very quick amount of time to get the heat in here for a few days.
But it’s not an example of a 588-594 dm ridge building in and sitting near/atop us for 3-5 days. It’s just enough.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2026071200&fh=69&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Tuesday’s got the warmest 850 mb temps passing overhead late afternoon into overnight. I think the high temps Tuesday may be a little later than usual, 4-5pm time frame.
I can see what you mean by “bridges east just enough.”
Thanks for posting.
Fascinating post. Thank you, Tom
The eastern Pacific has been and still is quietly active.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=7
El Nino pattern. Quiet Atlantic. Active Pacific.
Good morning and thank yiu TK
Not sure of my current temp due to refection issues. I AM guessing around 77 based on nearby stations. Low was 64
Ocean: 68
Wordle: 6
Nice 6. Very odd word
2nd Vicki’s thoughts.
I want it to be October so we can be DONE with this heat!!!!! I’D rather it be 0 than 90!! Of course 70s would be perfect. I don’t want much, do I.
Even TK has 97 on Tuesday for the high end of his range. Sounds like high heat to me.
Low 90s is hot, mid to upper 90s is another level of heat!!!
A range of 90-97 doesn’t mean everybody will be in the upper 90s. In fact, I felt like I was being a bit aggressive but I went with 97 as the upper limit because of the wind direction. The dew point may end up lower than currently forecast.
Low 90s with dew points upper 60s to middle 70s and little wind would feel much worse than mid 90s with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s with lots of wind. It is the latter that we will more likely see on Tuesday.
Also, I am not wishing that it’s October. I love living in the present. Summer for me last year was a blur due to a moderate autoimmune flare and my mother’s health decline and subsequent loss. I love summer. I want to enjoy it this year, and I will.
Enjoy. I for one am not enjoying it one bit.
I am a cranky old man.
And I’m a very happy old man. 😉
I can’t be bothered to be grumpy. I just can’t do it.
Yeah, certain things irritate me, but after a bit – poof! Gone!
Wish I could teach others how to do it, but I have no idea… 😉
Thanks TK. 72/61. Low of 56
I did pretty much the same as Tom. Just for give me the first three letters. I couldn’t picture a word so just started adding until I saw something that looked like it might work.
Wordle 5
🙂 🙂 🙂
Welcome !
Great. I thought for sure I had the word on 4 and 5, but nope!!!!
Ditto and thank you both
For Wordle today I had the first three letters in the right position on the second guess. I ended up getting it in 4. I consider myself lucky on this word!
Awesome 4, SClarke !
Outstanding 4!!!
Wow. Similar story but EXCELLENT 4
For my criteria, this could be a top 5 day of the summer.
Lower humidity, but not too low. I’m not a fan of 40s dps in July, but mid to upper 50s is perfect.
70s at the coast and low to maybe a few mid 80s inland, perfect again.
A decent amount of sun and we have a nice breeze here in Marshfield.
Let’s see how the weather plays out the rest of the day.
Yesterday was very nice. We’ll see how today is.
Nice East wind has been blowing all morning already here.
These are the times I so miss Humarock summers, especially with a water cooled breeze no matter the direction
I agree too that these are special days no matter near the coast or not
This tune about fits my mood today…. Love this tune.
The Toadies are generally categorized as an alternative rock, hard rock, or grunge band rather than heavy metal. While their music is loud, heavy, and features punk-infused energy, it relies heavily on alternative song structures rather than traditional heavy metal conventions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkwD5rQ-_d4
Thanks TK
NWS Heat Risk Map this week
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/
UGH!!!!
Besides today, looking forward to next Saturday. The rest of the week, not so much.
I love these new Heat Risk charts. I believe Jacob used it on air one day. NWS “experiment” is a success for a change. 🙂
All in all not bad for this time of year! And as stated in my blog many times, not too many prolonged spells of heat. The pattern does not support it. The pattern supports prolonged heat in the country’s mid section while we get pieces of it interrupted by shots of polar air (such as what we have this weekend).
Reminder: Yes. This is polar air. Polar air does not mean it’s cold like the North Pole at Santa Claus time. It means air that originated from the polar regions. It is naturally modified as it loses latitude. Don Kent used to talk about this ALL the time. I loved it when he mentioned the type of air mass we’d be seeing. I wish this was done more by media now, but they can’t. Bosses don’t allow much education. Need to make room for sensationalism. Until their bosses get a clue, the poor broadcasters will largely be kept quiet on the education aspect. I love watching them sneak it in when they can. Petey B is especially sly at doing this. 🙂
Yes, I remember those Don Kent days. Even Bob Copeland as well. Most of the tv mets today are very FORGETTABLE! I can’t imagine today’s generation having any fond memories of their Mets like we do.
Well, “forgettable” is not really meaning they are appearing on TV with no personality. “Back in the day”, the on camera meteorologist only had to worry about a time slot to not run over or not have enough to fill.
They did not have social media to monitor, admin, and respond to, not to mention post up to several times a day, in addition to the regular broadcasts along with the multiple “hits” needed for both social media and TV, and then all of the media aspect having to fit into a scripted format determined by someone who has virtually zero knowledge of the subject.
There are plenty of great personalities doing weather. Some of them shine through just fine, like Petey B, who has had time to refine it having been in it longer than many in this market. It’s hard not to become “robotic” in front of the camera when you’re already worried about making it back to the weather office for your next social media post, also knowing that for every positive comment left by your followers you’ll have 5 negative ones.
Modified Polar Air is what I believe Don Kent used to say, if I remember correctly.
When I was in high school he gave a talk and showed a film.
I was able to meet him afterwards and had a nice chat with him. That was awesome!
Very cool memory
Yes, it was and it was more than 60 years ago!! Weird even saying that!!!!!
I can’t believe I am this old!!! How did I get here??????
I often ask myself the same question
I will be 66 in 4 months. A bit of a ways behind you two but still have the same memories. I was born just in time to remember how much better society “used” to be. 🙂
I am a baby boomer, just the last batch. 😉
Got lucky with a 3 today! Had just the middle letter at one, and had a good guess at 2, 4 letters. Only 2 words left and picked the right one.
Wow! Truly awesome job!!!
Wow. Very impressive.
Thanks, TK!
Thanks Tk , everyone have a great day today !
81/64.
Thanks, TK.
Fabulous Sunday. Though my to-do list is rather lengthy today and some of it is inside, enough of it is outside that I’m enjoying the day. The work is easy, just busy-work, and some of it involves using a hose to wash things, so that’s good! 🙂
It’s also very satisfying making the long to-do list on the phone app I use for it and then watching them vanish as I “check each box”. 🙂
I’ll check in later afternoon or evening with an update on my thoughts looking ahead. I also write a weekly thunderstorm outlook for a social media page I admin (mainly amateurs that like weather and particularly t-storms in this area). I also have to go kitty-sitting at my friend’s for a little while. 🙂
Have a great rest-of-your-day!