Weekend Update #1

124 Comments

9:36AM

Good morning and have a great weekend everybody!

This Saturday morning update is just a short discussion followed by a forecast for southeastern New England…

If you like snow, it’s still not a great pattern, for now. A weak disturbance runs at the region tonight and may toss a little light snow this way, and then it ignites a new storm offshore on Sunday but that will be too far out at sea to do a whole lot, just a little more light snow with light accumulation (see below). It will intensify in the Canadian Maritimes and result in a blustery Monday. Another disturbance looks like it will be too far offshore for significant impact late Tuesday and Wednesday (clouds and just a chance of a touch of snow). Later next week, temperatures may moderate enough so that the next disturbance produces rain showers about Friday.

TODAY: Sun giving way to clouds. Highs in the 30s. Wind W around 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow with no significant accumulation. Lows in the 20s. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of mainly light snow. Highs in the 30s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow, tapering off overnight. Accumulations mostly under 1 inch (dustings/coatings most areas), possibly 1-2 inches parts of Cape Cod/Nantucket. Lows in the 20s. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 35.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light snow or snow showers. Low 21. High 36.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 19. High 37.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/rain showers. Low 29. High 41.

124 thoughts on “Weekend Update #1”

    1. I was over on Mt. Zion last evening and will be there again this evening as well. Wonder if a few flakes will fall before the night’s out. I have it in the forecast, now let’s see if it actually takes place.

      1. Would you still say Boston sees an inch or more of a coating, or flurries. Looking like anything tonight may be confined to the cape, do you agree.

          1. So confident on maybe a dusting best. And would this take place more tomorrow than tonight. Thanks, enjoy the weekend.

            1. More tomorrow – but there is an outside shot of a dusting/light coating even overnight tonight pending the results of that disturbance coming through here.

      2. Cool…funny my wife pointed out we can see Mt. Zion from our back window. Stop by if you get frozen! 🙂

  7. Its starting to look like another dud winter. I am really rooting for The Almanac to be right for that big snowstorm the middle of the month along with the other two big coastal storms to end March.

    1. I’d say “starting” is being kind. We’re on the back nine right now and the models generally look pretty lame two weeks out.

      1. I wait till the end of February before making a call on the winter. We have had some big ones in February the blizzard of 78 and The Presidents Day Storm of 03.
        I see the CPC has us with above normal temps in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks however I am not discouraged because you can’t get snowfall in an overall mild pattern as was the case with the Autumn Noreaster.

    2. I’ll trade up my Pretty Red Roses and Yummy Godiva Chocolates for a good old fashion New England Valentine’s Day Snowstorm! Sheer Desperation 🙂

      1. It was my last year of college in upstate NY when we had a v-day snow storm. I think it was 2007. Pretty much rain around here but in Albany we had over 2 ft.

  8. It was nice this am walking out at 6:30am and it was light out as supposed to pitch black, as I have been saying a change to a warmer pattern is coming in mid feb, have a good day and enjoy the nice day 🙂

  9. In reference to the “back nine” comment above. It’s true. February 2 is about the half way point of “winter weather” from a climate standpoint.

  10. Here’s a sample fantasy set of observations for the one big snowstorm we’ll have this winter season…

    Boston: Heavy snow, blowing snow, temp 28, dp 27, wind NE 25 G 44
    Worcester: Moderate snow, blowing snow, temp 22, dp 22, wind NE 21 G 35
    Portsmouth: Heavy snow, blowing snow, temp 25, dp 25, wind NNE 22 G 40
    Charlieville: Light rain, fog, temp 39, dp 39, wind light variable

    🙂

  11. I think anybody who gives up winter now is crazy. February is known for big storms. And besides it’s only half over, not over. Don’t put to much stock in what the cpc and model’s predict. This is a wintet where the models have flipped flopped more than a gymnast. I will say though we have about a six week window of opportunity, that takes us to the second week in March. After that I believe things will start to be moving towards spring, I am guessing an early spring and I hope I’m right. My son had baseball tryouts this morning and thats the stuff that I’m waiting for. I am also going to guess that we get atleast one big one this winter, could it be a closeout storm, time will tell. One thing the sun will be getting much stronger.

      1. Your not kidding, he will be nine in april. It will be his last single digit birthday. If I knew how to put a frown face after that sentence I would have.

    2. There have been big early and late storms in otherwise not-that-big winters. The best example is 1981-1982. December 5-6 and April 6, the latter being a powder blizzard with over 1 foot in most places and temps in the teens the next day. So if anyone thinks we can’t have mid winter deep freeze and big snow in March, or even April, think again. 🙂

      1. C’mon March ok but April? Now I know it’s been midwinter cold in April one time or another in the past 20 yrs but it’s rare to have mid winter cold in April, if it is midwinter cold in April there record lows normally

        1. All I said is that it can happen, not that it happens frequently or is the normal.

          In 1995 we also had a pure blast of Arctic air in early April which lead off with a tremendous snow squall the afternoon before.

          It happens – just not often.

          1. If you look back through history, most of April’s lowest temps for Boston are in the upper 20s to middle 30s.

            The 2 Arctic shots I refer to stick out like sore thumbs: 16 on April 7 1982 and 20 on April 5 1995. In 1995 most of the suburbs were in the lower to middle teens the morning of April 5. That is pure Arctic air and would have produced below zero temps had that airmass been January.

            1. I really remember the April 7, 1982 arctic air because it was part of a big snowstorm with all powder snow in the Lowell area which was unbelievable.

            2. And that’s what I meant was it is very rare and to think it will just happen this April is like buying a scratch tix and winning 500 bucks, I do know what u mean though, enjoy the blog and enjoy the conversation

            3. Don’t forget the foot of snow April 29 1987 or the may but I always forget the year 1977. That did a lot of damage. I think May 9

              1. April 28-29 1987 indeed. Lots of snow. Lots of tree damage.

                Other signficant out-of-season snows: Oct 10 1979 and May 9-10 1977.

                Even got measurable snow/sleet in the suburbs on May 18 2002. 1/2 inch here in Woburn that Saturday morning.

  12. I agree winter is not over yet but it’s like saying early Late Nov early Dec is not winter, technically yes it’s fall but winter is on your mind,, same here in 3 weeks there will be an hr more of daylight and Spring will be right around the corner as I’ve always thought of March as early Spring even though March has 3 weeks of winter left, enjoy the day, I actually heard a group talking about the winter was easy again, we r also getting to a point that a 30 deg day in Feb is not the same as 30 deg in late Dec early jan bc of sun angle

    1. Like where the 1-4 inch bullseye is just southeast of Boston. 🙂

      I think winter (my definition : 7 or more consecutive days of below normal
      temps along with a snowfall or two) is over and not because its now early February (maybe thats 10% of it). …. I dont think there’s going to be much precip this month. I say that because of persistence and what the big picture of the long range models are showing. My instinct says that only the occasional inside runner brings a few cold frontal showers and anytime a deeper chill sets in, it will continue to keep storms south and east of us.

      1. RPM’s performance is so-so at best. I wouldn’t put much stock in it. It had Boston at 14.3 inches 1 day before the “NO-lun Trough” incident.

  14. well in the next week. it does not look good.
    tomorrow storm goes over the fishes with areas east of i95 seeing snow showers and light snow. some accumulation on the cape and islands. rd and ct.
    highs in the low 30s and upper 20s through wednesday.
    thursday and friday. temps rise up into the upper 30s tolto low 40s
    a mix of rain and snow showers friday and friday night
    low to middle 40s and sun saturday of next weekend.
    pretty much summs it up

  15. Thanks TK. Just returned from Nantasket Beach where I was cheering on my awesome and CRAZY coworkers as they took a dip in the Atlantic for charity. Despite the chilly temperature it was a beautiful clear day at the beach.

  16. February sun is very different from January and December. Today’s cold feels different as a result. We’re running out of time, and it looks increasingly likely that we’ll get another long stretch of mild weather. I do think we can characterize this winter as a dud. Not as bad as last, but still. In both the temperature and snow departments, it’ll likely turn out to be a relative dud.

    1. We may have had a lousy winter last winter, and not-that-great so far here, and a couple snowless March patterns the last couple years, but history and experience tells me no matter what the pattern, including the reliable guidance’s forecast for the next 2 weeks, at the start of February you just don’t call it a dud yet. The numbers don’t lie. 🙂

      1. Tk I definitely agree. It seems the statement winter is over has come up here way before today, it baffles me. It’s only february 2nd. It’s like saying July 4th summer is over.

      2. I think late snow is always a possibility, but people get disappointed by winters like last year and this year so far and they begin to believe that this snowless trend will never end. I am bit like that right now though I feel there are possibilities around 2 1/2 to 3 weeks from now.

        One thing I am never sure of is how big a snow factor a neg NAO is. I guess my question is this — if I were to build a mathmatical meteorology snow model (ha, ha as if I could) for NE would a neg NAO be a SIGNIFICANT variable?

        1. I understand that it can be cold and even snow in April, all I’m saying is its rare, again it’s possible for anything to happen 🙂

  17. Hi all. Sue kudos to your coworkers. My niece did it at Humarock last New Years in memory of her dad and said when you go under you literally lose your breath and its pretty scary.

      1. Just saw it and those are the ones I remember well. And I even got the may date and year right – i always know the date. It was my cousins bday but usually think year is 1978. April 29 was my brothers bday so I never forget that one either. Hmmmmm lots of family bdays and my anniversary dec 9 associates with big snows. Wonder what that means 😉

          1. Not at all. I remember lots of very cold April’s as well as lots of very warm April’s. I remember far fewer normal April’s. it’s not a dependable month. There is IMHO no reason not to expect a storm in April any more than to expect a heat wave.

            1. Charlie its like saying it is rarely cold in October. I remember far far more halloweens where it was bitter cold than I do warm Halloween. Warm are far more recent. Comes with the cyclical thing 🙂

    2. I made a promise that I would join them next year, and I was the only one that was sober when I made that promise. Let’s hope they all forget by tomorrow morning!

      1. Was it Hadi that precited that this one will verify and be an inside runner OR Lakes Cutter! That would top of this Winter for sure.

        Again, 12Z GFS had this same system OTS and this one is the
        18Z run after all. 😀 Keep the faith.

  22. This system is about 20-30 miles closer than anticipated hence I think up to 2 inches south and east of Boston

  24. Here’s the real consequence of missing the snow the last 2 winters and a dry pattern in general.

    In 2012, Logan finished 7.04 inches of precip below normal.

    Already in 2013, as of February 2nd, Logan is 2.49 inches below normal, having in the first 33 days of the year totaled only 1.08 inches of precip.

    1. Tom my husband keeps saying we should invest in a desalination plant. It’s getting so its not so funny. If we think an oil shortage is a problem, wait till we or our children face a water shortage.

      1. Well, unless the rains/snows arrive, the water bans may be popping up in communities much earlier than July and August. A couple more weeks from now, say around February 20th, when the sun is suddenly 5 to 6 degrees higher in the sky, we’ll have to see if those very dry dewpoints start showing up again. I remember last February, it would be in the low to mid 40s with relative humidities in the low teens and the dewpoints were below zero. Then, that crazy windy day happened in March, a fire started in a house in Humarock and poof, a few houses were burnt to the ground in minutes. Unfortunately, things are in motion to set up for similar hazards soon.

        1. You are very correct and it is more than worrisome. I remember around Christmas last year I said the Sudbury river was unusually high for that time of year. It was all downhill from there

  25. For fun anybody snow guess for Boston by tomorrow night, that includes tonight. And second guess say Marshfield south. I’ll guess inch total for Boston and 2-3 inches from Hanover right down through the cape.

        1. Hi John. I did not catch the evening broadcasts tonight. Hope your correct ! Any and all precip is welcomed !!

          1. I forget exactly what he said, feeling under the weather today and wondering about a call in is not helping. Mike did mention Marshfield south for some acumlitation/ more down the cape.

            1. Hope you feel better soon and yes, it must be a bit frustrating not to have certainty about whether or not you’ll be called in.

            2. Drink not toddies. They are doing wonders for me :). And another side effect of snowless winters is illness. I made that up but it seems to be true more often than not.

  27. 1-3 inches of snow on cape cod and the islands, south coast. southern rd. less than 1 inch south of the mass pike.

    1. Hadi for Boston, I don’t think so. An inch is very likely. Probably tomorrow. Two fronts one tonight and second tomorrow afternoon/night. The models showing it.

  30. That first goal tonight was made by Chris bourque, son of ray bourque. Bummer I missed it. Turned out it was the only goal in the game. Good for him.

  35. I assure you, when winter is over, Nantucket will have less final snow than Boston.

    Love the difference between the Euro-Bomb and the GFS’s weak storm for Friday February 8. It will be interesting to see how those 2 trend.

    The climatological winter is now 1/2 over. We are far, far, FAR from being even close to calling the winter a bust (in terms of snow) with any meteorological reason. You can pretend that the history does not exist, but it sure does. Watch how the atmosphere works itself out between now and mid April. And don’t try to convince me that it can’t get nasty into April. Some of the coldest air aloft around here comes in March & April. Toss some stronger sun into the mix and the ability to cook things can shoot through the roof. Put the right mix of things together and BOOM.

    The best piece of advice I can give anybody: Stop reading the models as if they are a news story based in fact. They are computer projections into the future. Follow TRENDS. Learn where to pay attention and where to ignore. Model meteorology is just as much about knowing guidance errors as it is knowing when a model has a handle on weather patterns. And it takes years to learn it. And even then there is still some uncertainty.

    I love the fact that O.S. and others post the models here. It’s good practice looking at all the runs and finding which ones are poor and which ones more believable. It’s a whole lot of T&E, and sometimes TMI. Which is where the part about ignoring the extraneous garbage comes in.

    I’m still learning it after 23 years (going back to my freshman year of college).

  36. The disturbance that was expected to create some spotty snow during the night did indeed do that. We had a light dusting around Woburn as of 2AM, just enough to make tire-tracks visible on the roads. The idea of that lead area of lift that the models had trouble picking up on indeed verified. This was the reason for adding a chance of snow into the Saturday night forecast.

    As for the main disturbance coming along during Sunday and Sunday evening – it is largely offshore and if anybody gets over 1 inch (except maybe the outer Cape and Nantucket) I’ll be very surprised. I don’t buy the up to 4 inches the RPM put out for Plymouth County, though there is a shot at a bit of ocean-effect there as the storm starts to crank offshore. And with the cold air around, a good enough plume of moisture can drop some quick fluff.

    I don’t really have a feel for the end-of-week system. The Euro’s rapid intensification of low pressure right over southern New England is likely incorrectly positioned and also over-forecast. The thing is, I’m honestly not sure if the eventual position is offshore or further inland. I just don’t know how the pieces of energy coming around the trough are going to be in terms of magnitude, nor do I know how they will interact with one another. Too many puzzle pieces yet to find their places.

    An update to the blog will come out by about 9:30AM. Have a great Sunday!

    1. Great stuff TK !!! I was going to mention that you were about 2 to 3 days ahead of everyone mentioning Sat. snow possibilities with the lead shortwave.

      Ended up with a thick dusting to perhaps a 1/4 inch.

  37. (Message to TK: Below is today’s QUIZ. If possible, could you please repost to your updated blog? Most likely you’ll have to post it under your name. I will be out-of-position and can’t post again till later in the afternoon. If you can do this, thanks.)

    Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What was the biggest recorded snowflake to fall to Earth?
    A) 5”
    B) 12”
    C) 15”
    D) 19”

    Of course, I managed to get another one wrong. Answer later today (before the SB) along with the year it happened and the state in which it fell.

    4. Will-do! I’ll post the answers and who they are from too, for continuity.

      I like when you post the quizzes.

      I must admit, there are plenty that I am not sure of. Hard to answer as a meteorologist and risk looking like a dummy for getting it wrong. 🙂

  39. I wonder if its going to be snowing again soon in Marshfield and not from the precip streaming SW to NE that looks like its nearly over Nantucket…. but from perhaps the lower level batch of precip out of Massachusetts Bay that seems to be moving towards the SW.

        1. That area of precip out in Mass Bay is looking fairly decent. Decent solid coverage with a few darker greens in its center. (Graupel 🙂 ? )

            1. Maybe ! :). I’m guessing the radar is in sensitive mode, however, it also looks like there are some echoes developing west of Boston showing up between 495 and 128.

  40. Well the GFS lost the “HM Dream Storm” and now it just has 2 or 3 non-phased split flow tiny snow events and 2 Lakes Cutters on its 06z run. 😉

  41. I am going with B.
    I am not surprised the Henry Dream Storm is not there. He is more wrong than right on his long range predictions although he was right in January 2011 when he said were in a pattern with snowstorm after snowstorm for the Northeast.

  43. A blog update has been posted, along with a reposting of Longshot’s AccuWeather quiz and the guesses given so far.

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