35 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

1. Thanks Tk . What on xmas would that precipitation be in the form of.

2. Thank you, TK.

3. Goo morning and thank you TK.

   1. Well good morning anyway.

      1. With the mud at Fatima last night, I’d say goo is appropriate

4. Thank you TK.

5. Winds were not bad in Sutton when the front went through yesterday. Sky was pretty cool though. Daughter was at target on rt 20 Marlboro and said same thing rainshine said. Wind was extreme and sky got pitch black. She said it was a bit unnerving

   Tom, I saw that a tree went through the roof of a scituate library

   1. I did not know that re : Scituate library.

6. Front yesterday in JP was nothing out of the ordinary. A puff of wind and a darkening
   of the sky. It would take considerably more than that to excite me weatherwise. 😀

   signed,

   Jaded old man.

   1. Well, this jaded old woman was disappointed also. Clearly, we should have been anywhere other than Sutton and Jamaica Plain.

7. The run to run variability on the GFS is insane, there is nothing even remotely consistent about it. Doesn’t look good for snow chances before Christmas, but still a little time to get lucky.

   1. “Get Lucky” is the key term of the day.

      I suppose there is a “slight” chance the 22nd/23rd, but I highly doubt it.

      I wouldn’t be surprised IF it didn’t snow around these parts until at least
      mid-January, IF even then.

      I surely looks like an above average temperature stretch, even if not
      a tropical melt down, although there may be 1 or 2 of those thrown in
      just to remind us we are NOT in a favorable cold and/or snow pattern. 😀

      What we need is a “lucky” cold intrusion to line up with moisture moving
      into our area. FAT CHANCE of that happening. 😀 😀 😀 But we can hope.

      I would very much like to see a White Christmas. After that, I don’t care
      what happens. You can give me Miami weather for all I care. 😀

8. Hi JP,

   GFS has been all over the place but CMC has been rather consistent on 23rd event although still not showing snow accumulation. I don’t typically look at CMC but noticed a bit more consistency. What’s say you?

   1. Yes, It’s been that way for a while now. Even TK said is was performing
      reasonable well. That is the only reason I said “slight” chance the 22,23.
      GFS does have system for that time period, but has it going too far North
      for coastal redevelopment, while CMC does show redevelopment, albeit
      too little too late for SNE, but does keep the snow in up North.

      We shall see what the 12Z runs show.

9. It’s my feeling no great analysts that this will trend colder.

   1. 12Z GFS still wants to take the system NORTH of us with NO
      Coastal redevelopment.

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png

      1. Fim has redevelopment, but too late and in the Gulf of Maine,
         which does us no good at all.

         1. 12Z CMC => NO redevelopment either. See YA. So Long for that one.

10. Thanks TK !

11. Give it time JP. It will all come around.

    1. Long about April 15th when it will be too late, but just in time to RUIN SPRING. 😀

       1. I do recall up through MLK weekend in January 0f 2015 the word “putrid” was used to describe the winter and then…

          1. Yes, I am well aware of that. Don’t think we have a repeat performance, however. 😀

       2. Ha! You’re probably right. I think this year we will have a few more surprises than usual because of the fast flow we are in.

          1. Yes, I am sure there will be. Saturday was a bit of a surprise. At least in terms of how it looked a few days before. 😀

             1. Yes! That’s why I still feel this has time to change. Although we won’t be in the deep freeze but cold air is around.

                1. Yes, looks like shots of cold air in between
                   warm ups. timing, timing, timing.
                   It’s like location, location, location
                   in real estate.

12. Thanks TK.

13. Hmmm,

    A couple of things looking over the 18Z NAMS.
    1.
    They hint at a touch of Ocean Effect snow after midnight tonight for a few hours.
    Nothing heavy, amounting to a few snow showers IF even they were to occur.
    Just something to note:
    2.
    For the 22nd, a hint that there could “possibly” be some snow.
    850 mb temps are OK, but there are boundary layer issues with surface temps
    in the upper 30s or there about. Just something to monitor.

    1. They seemed to have put the Taunton radar into sensitive mode. It shows the ocean effect nearing Marshfield and onto the coastline just south of us.

       I wouldn’t be surprised to see some flurries or a light snow shower soon. The low clouds have definitely backed in off the ocean over the last hour.

       1. Pretty cool. tx

14. I’m looking forward to the general moderation in temps ….

    Today marks the 8th day out of 19 at Logan that the high temp was 40F or under.

    Today is also the 3rd day of December that has had high temps under 32F. (I’m counting today in this group of 3 even though technically, the high will be shown to be 32F which was at midnight, 16 hours ago).

    Running 2F below the average as a whole for the month and that includes 2 days that had highs of 57F, with departures of +10F and +11F.

    It’s been cold and I think it’s not too much to ask for an early January thaw. 🙂 🙂 🙂

15. While the arctic air will be in retreat, it’s also in a way going to get a chance to reload up at high latitudes.

    I have a feeling we’ll be getting more surges of it after a respite.

16. I dunno. It’ll take a pretty good SSW event to weaken the PV enough to send a lobe down this way. I’m sure it will happen, it has to at some point to reverse the winds and set up the spring/summer air pattern . The real question now is will there be a SSW before the last one toward the equinox.
    Right now, every single teleconnector reads warm (relatively speaking for the time of year) for the eastern CONUS. If that southeast ridge continues at some level, any snow will have to be an over running event rather than coastal lows. At any rate, I’m still feeling pretty good about my 30 or so inch snow fall for the season. It’s going to take some really well timed s/w along with some cold air to get any significant snow.
    As I said before, even if Canada is is cold, there has to be someway to move it down here. And that AO looks to stay pretty positive for the foreseeable future.

17. New post awaits.
    Good day all!

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