Monday Forecast

42 Comments

7:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 8-12)
Rainy days and Mondays… That great song by the Carpenters always enters my mind when those 2 occur together, but they don’t get me down because as you all know by now, I’m not one of the majority that feel down on Mondays and/or rainy days. I love both of them. But many of you may feel down for part of the day at least as we get a slug of rain through here mainly during this morning. Don’t expect any clearing though this afternoon, even though the steadiest rain will be gone. There will still be a additional showers and perhaps even a rumble of thunder as some warmer and unstable air crosses the region, kind of. The kind of part is because you won’t feel the warm air down here at ground level as we’ll have had a marine layer of air take over on a low level northeast wind, turning it quite cool and damp. And as you know, when that happens around here in the spring it’s often very hard to dislodge that. And that will be the case yet again, as this marine layer of air hangs on through Tuesday as well, as another low pressure area heads for northern NY via the Great Lakes. However, this low will decide to morph its way around the edge of the colder air and end up passing just south of the region Tuesday night, getting to the east of the region Wednesday. As I’ve been talking about in previous blogs, the Red Sox home opener is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon, and for several days my expectations for that event were chilly/raw/overcast. This has not changed. There is a risk of drizzle, but for now I am optimistic that more significant rainfall in the form of numerous showers will hold off until sometime after the game, unless it’s a longer than average game. As colder air starts to work in, some of these showers may be in the form of ice pellets in southern NH by Tuesday evening, and even colder air means showers of rain/sleet/snow working southward across the region during Wednesday morning. There would not be any accumulation of snow fell, however, so no worries on that. Improving weather arrives later Wednesday, though it will be a chilly and breezy day. High pressure builds in for nicer weather Thursday, and the high moves offshore and allows milder air in for Friday, but the first of 2 cold fronts approaching from the west will also bring a rain shower threat by later Friday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning. Areas of drizzle/fog this afternoon along with a risk of a passing shower and slight risk of a thunderstorm. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Risk of a rain shower southeastern areas early. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Rain showers arriving west to east late-day. Highs 45-52 coast, 52-59 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely, may mix with sleet southern NH evening then rain/sleet/snow showers possible all areas overnight. . Lows 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers early. Highs 48-55. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45 evening then rising temperatures overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day rain showers. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 56-63 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 13-17)
Dry weather returns with a brisk breeze April 13 but mild ahead of a secondary cold front which passes late-day and brings brief chill at night to early April 14, which will also be fair but less breezy and eventually milder. Watching the April 15-16 period for possible impact by low pressure, but leaning toward a slower arrival with the possibility of getting through much of April 15 before rain arrives. Improving weather at the end of the period but cool air dominant.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 18-22)
Hard to time systems but the pattern still looks somewhat active but fairly progressive. Will lean toward dry weather and brief warm up early period, unsettled mid period, then fair with a slight cooling trend thereafter.

42 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. It will depend on timing, because that outcome is one of the possibilities. But at a full week away, I’m not even close to confidence on it. I’m just leaning toward a slower moving of systems at this point and a later arrival of whatever we see.

  10. That low level cold air in Maine is slipping southwestward into northeastern Mass and Boston.

    It’s 31F in Portland ME with sleet and 36F in Portsmouth. Logan is down to 41F. Wouldn’t surprise me to see Logan fall into upper 30s for a while before perhaps rebounding into the lower to mid 40s later this afternoon.

  11. Thank you TK!
    A little more in the rain bucket than I expected to have had today. So far I’ve received 0.72” out of this system, not bad.

  13. Thanks, TK…

    Raining cats and dogs here in Middleborough.
    That really is an odd expression.

    I once had a student literally translate that into Spanish and it came out that little domestic animals were falling from the sky.

    Spanish speakers say : Llover a cántaros…”To rain pitchers (jugs)”, not baseball players. It’s probably where we get “it’s pouring.”

  16. Captain, I like the expression “Llover a cántaros…”To rain pitchers (jugs).”

    In Dutch, “het regent pijpenstelen,” which literally means “it’s raining pipe handles.” Why pipe handles? Lord knows. Idiom is always a curious thing, and rarely translatable.

      1. Patriots Day blizzard. It’s coming. Well, we’ll see. I have, however, for some time had a hunch Patriots Day would be quite cold, rainy, and possible snowy.

    1. In that part of the world, snow shovels get put way around Memorial Day, but then in temporary storage, as they may be needed again shortly after Labor Day in parts of Northern Maine.

  19. I’m not sure if we are seeing FV3 with corrections, but if we are, they haven’t corrected enough for the cold bias.

    1. I have noticed as well that it still seems colder than other models. However, in this case, the CMC is showing the same thing and the regular GFS is more of a miss to the south but is cold enough for snow on the northern fringe as well.

      I’d take it with a grain of salt at this point though. Late last week the models had been showing this coming weekend’s storm as a colder one, passing near/south of us with snow over NNE. Now it’s cutting way west. 7 days out is still an eternity this time of year.

  20. Warmest day of the year so far in much of the mid-Atlantic. Philadelphia hit 82 today. I’d say there’s a warm front somewhere between here and you guys in SNE 😉

      2. Thanks Tom. And you’re correct- the diameter of that sunspot (numbered 2738 by NOAA) exceeds that of Earth, and it could easily swallow the planet whole. For reference, the largest sunspots can reach the size of Jupiter, with a diameter 10-15 times that of Earth.

        Space weather is a particular fascination of mine. I’m glad you gave me an excuse to talk about it 🙂 . If it weren’t so cyclical (i.e., 2-4 years of high activity followed by 6-9 years of very little), I might have ended up specializing in it. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center issues a daily forecast discussion about important space weather features, similar to an NWS AFD. While that sunspot is big, it actually doesn’t possess the magnetic complexity needed to produce strong solar flares. SWPC is forecasting very low solar activity for the next three days, an all too familiar forecast in these deepest depths of solar minimum.

        https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

        1. Thank you WxWatcher for this link and further descriptions of this sunspot. Great analysis as always !

        2. WxW. I find this absolutely fascinating and always have. Thank you for your expertise and Tom …again…thank you for bringing the topic to the forefront

          1. My pleasure. I have a lot to learn on the topic, but check on the sun through stanford solar center periodically to watch for solar activity and sunspots.

            1. I want to send this to my 10 year old grand. I think she’d be fascinated.

              I will look for an age appropriate book for her also.

        3. Radio Dxers like myself are always looking at the Space Weather Forecasts. Increased sunspot activity usually means disturbed radio conditions on AM and Shortwave where anything can happen. Solar Flares, etc also increase the chances of Auroral activity which enhances those same signals from the south making it possible to hear AM stations from Central and South America. FM can also benefit too although the main forms of long distance propagation for FM are tropospheric ducting and Eskip which aren’t related to Solar Activity. The current solar cycle is on it’s downside and hasn’t been all that active. The next one promises more of the same. In fact I remember reading somewhere that many of the future solar cycles will be overall very quiet compared to those in the 20th century.

  22. Just drove down to Stamford CT for a night meeting. Was 42F when I left Manchester and is 58F here. Big difference getting out of the car. Was still in the 40s driving through Bridgeport so my guess is the front is draped somewhere across Fairfield County.

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