DAYS 1-5 (MAY 2-6)

A warm front approaches today with thickening cloud cover and eventually some light rainfall in the area by this evening or tonight – not a big deal, but that front won’t make it in, and we’ll stay on the cool side of the boundary. Weak high pressure makes a feeble and generally failed attempt to clear us out Tuesday, so going with clouds to dominate, but no rainfall threat. Low pressure looks like it makes a run for regions just northwest of us Wednesday, but wait, it suddenly decides to bubble along the frontal boundary to our south and we stay north of its track with a cool easterly air flow and periodic rainfall. Finally a stronger push from high pressure takes place as that system departs by Thursday, which turns out to be a dry and milder day, though still somewhat cooler along the coastline. When we get to Friday, there’s significant inconsistency and disagreement in model guidance, with some outcomes ranging from dry and and mild to dry/breezy/cool to another low pressure system moving in with another wet weather threat. I’m between scenarios #2 and #3, leaning toward the unsettled side of things with clouds returning and some threat of rain, especially for southern areas. There will be fine-tuning to come…

TODAY: Thickening overcast. Highs 54-61, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a few glimpses of sun possible. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain ends, clouds break, patchy fog dissipates. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouding up. Chance of rain, favoring southern areas. Highs 50-57. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 7-11)

Large-scale pattern: Blocking with high pressure in eastern Canada and slowly eastward-moving low pressure areas to the south of that. We remain most vulnerable to cloudy and occasional wet weather in the May 7-8 depending on how far north low pressure is. Fair weather should follow this. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 12-16)

Similar pattern should continue as we approach and reach the half-way point of May, leaving us vulnerable to some unsettled weather episodes and variable temperatures that lean to slightly below normal. The confidence in this part of the forecast is fairly low though. There is still a fairly large spread in medium range guidance and one can make a case for any of these being potentially correct.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-2-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 1-5)

High pressure will bring us splendid weather for the first day of May today, with 100% sunshine, light wind, but a significant temperature spread from shoreline to inland locations, very typical of spring time in New England. Enjoy today especially since the timing allows it to be on a day off for many. The weather “goes downhill” for several days following, starting with the approach of a warm front Monday bringing clouds and an evening rain threat. But that front never gets through the region, first being held back as a wave of low pressure forms on the front and passes to the south of us Monday night, then staying down there as a little bubble of high pressure builds across northern New England Tuesday. Another low pressure area approaches Tuesday night and passes by during Wednesday, and while guidance shows what looks like a low that wants to pass just northwest of our area, it won’t, as high pressure in eastern Canada keeps the boundary just to the south and the low follows it, redeveloping or “wobbling” along the boundary until its passing to our south and out to sea, bringing wet weather for Wednesday. Finally by Thursday we should get a push of drier but cool air from Canada for a break in the cloudiness and occasional wet weather of the first part of the week…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 55-62 coastline, 63-70 inland, mildest interior valleys. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Thickening overcast. Highs 54-61, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a few glimpses of sun possible. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain ends, clouds break, patchy fog dissipates. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 6-10)

Large-scale pattern: Blocking with high pressure in eastern Canada and slowly eastward-moving low pressure areas to the south of that. We remain most vulnerable to cloudy and occasional wet weather in the May 6-8 period before drier/brighter weather later in the period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 11-15)

Similar pattern should continue as we approach the half-way point of May, but the overall pattern should weaken somewhat and the appearance of more high pressure to the south of New England means that the warm-up potential is a little stronger, but also leaves us vulnerable to additional unsettled weather due to the boundary between that and the cooler high pressure in Canada. No chance on finding any day-to-day details this far in advance though. Check back for that!

C-19 Chat Post – 5-1-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 30 – MAY 4)

Last day of April – last day of impact from low pressure spinning offshore. The wind will be down from yesterday but it’s still to be cool with some clouds rotating around the back side of the low pressure area in our sky. Sunday, high pressure builds in with a very lovely day to start the month of May. Monday, low pressure in the Great Lakes stretches its way toward New England via New York, and as we often see in a pattern when things are not moving rapidly, this system gets pulled apart with the old low hanging back and its frontal system stretching out and trying to form a new low as it passes by. It will partially fail in that atmospheric endeavor but not enough to spare us from a cloudy sky by later Monday along with a risk of some light rainfall that night. I expect that the new low that does form, a fairly small and weak one, will exit the area early Tuesday as the old original low moves away via eastern Canada, with a little bubble of high pressure moving in to improve our weather during that day. But things at that time will start to move a little more quickly as the pattern evolves into a block that features high pressure in Canada and low pressure systems moving eastward to the south of that, so that our next unsettled weather system is already moving in Tuesday night into Wednesday with more rain.

TODAY: A lobe of high clouds dims the sun north to south this morning. Sunshine and passing clouds this afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible midday and afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 34-41. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain. Patchy fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clearing. Highs 60-67. Wind variable becoming SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 5-9)

Large-scale pattern: Blocking with high pressure in eastern Canada and slowly eastward-moving low pressure areas to the south of that. We’re vulnerable to unsettled weather especially in the late May 5 to early early May 8 time frame. Doesn’t mean clouds and precipitation the entire time. It means we’re vulnerable to unsettled weather. Some of this activity may stay to the south. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 10-14)

Similar pattern, weak blocking favoring cooler than normal temperatures. Must watch systems coming from the west, but they may be weak and/or pass to the south keeping us on the drier side.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-30-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 29 – MAY 3)

On we go with the upper low spinning about just to our east, keeping us breezy and cool for the last couple days of April. These conditions mean that brush fire danger will be on the high side as well. High pressure nudges eastward to bring a fair and milder day to start off May and end the weekend. A weak low pressure area arrives from the west later Monday with some threat of wet weather, but this should move out on Tuesday with fair weather returning.

TODAY: Intervals of sun & clouds. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Afternoon rain showers possible. Highs 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 48-55. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clearing. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 4-8)

Unsettled weather with the passage of low pressure and a frontal system May 4, with another episode of unsettled weather later May 5 into May 6. Cooling trend expected.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 9-13)

Similar pattern, weak blocking favoring cooler than normal temperatures and a tendency to be on the dry side.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-29-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 28 – MAY 2)

An upper level low pressure area – a pool of cold air – will sit just east of our region over the next 3 days. We’ll be on its western flank and vulnerable to cloudiness generated by it, along with breezy conditions and cool weather. Finally this system pulls to the east and we are calmer and milder by Sunday, the first day of May. Will that last through Monday? Probably not. Looks like another low pressure system will be waiting to move in by then as things start to move west to east again, but at this point it looks minor.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Afternoon rain showers possible. Highs 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 3-7)

High pressure dominates eastern Canada. Slowly eastward-moving weather systems dominate our pattern. Unsettled episodes most likely early May 4, later May 5 into May 6. Mildest early period, then a cooler trend again.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 8-12)

Overall pattern looks similar with very little overall change to the set-up, resulting in kind of typical mid-spring weather with no extremes of temperature or major storminess, but a couple episodes of unsettled weather.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-28-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 27 – MAY 1)

Down to 4 days in April, and we’ll experience the effect of a blocking pattern for them. Low pressure exiting today sits east of New England through Saturday. We’ll be on the drier, cool side of it, but with it still close by today we have the chance of a shower, and a lobe or two of energy coming around its back side may introduce a brief shower threat to our region sometime in the coming 3 days, but I feel it’s a small enough threat to really just emphasize the periodic cloudiness we’ll be dealing with, as chances are most places don’t see any shower activity on those 3 days. Blocking opens up enough to nudge high pressure eastward into our area by Sunday, starting May off with a very nice day.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Brief passing rain showers possible. Highs 52-59. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 2-6)

The pattern looks like it will present some blocking but also some movement. High pressure in eastern Canada and areas of low pressure moving eastward to the of that. Those disturbances will bring unsettled threats to us about every other day during this period, though timing will be difficult until it gets closer. Temperatures near to slightly below normal for the period as a whole.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 7-11)

A similar pattern should continue to the one described just above and fine-tuning will take place as we get closer.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-27-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 26-30)

A milder day today but clouds dominant and eventually some wet weather likely later in the day into tonight as a low pressure system and cold front move in from west to east. This system will make it through by early Wednesday, and any wave of low pressure that I previously thought may keep us wet into Wednesday morning will be weaker and later-forming, so it looks mainly dry, breezy and cooler for Wednesday, other than just a chance of a brief shower from some instability in the atmosphere. While the progressive pattern is indeed slowing down and evolving into more of a blocking one, but we’ll find ourselves on the dry and cool side of it into late this week…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers possible in southwestern NH and north central MA this morning, then anywhere during this afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A brief passing shower possible. Highs 52-59. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloudy mix. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 1-5)

The blocking element of the pattern doesn’t look like it will be that strong, so leaning toward increasingly progressive movement of weather systems. This leads to a warming trend the first few days of May, eventually a shower threat, and return to cooler weather toward the end of the period, based on current timing expectations. This is not a high confidence forecast, however.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 6-10)

Looking for a progressive but not fast-flowing upper level pattern. One or two unsettled weather systems will bring shower threats to the region. Temperatures, while variable, should average fairly close to normal.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-26-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 25-29)

Fairly typical spring weather will be ours as we head through the last week of April. The frontal boundary that came through as a back door cold front over the weekend sits near the western reaches of the WHW forecast area this morning, even triggering a few showers due to a disturbance moving by. These showers won’t last long and will impact eastern CT and parts of RI into mid morning. It’ll turn milder away from the coast than it was yesterday, but coastal areas will hang onto the cool air with onshore breezes off the still-chilly water. Tuesday, the aforementioned boundary returns as a warm front, but we only get into the warm sector behind this front and ahead of an approaching cold front for a brief period of time. That cold front, parented by low pressure passing to our north, will move through from west to east Tuesday night and offshore Wednesday just as a weak wave of low pressure forms on it and moves by, then helps pull it further offshore. While this will be taking place during the evolution of a blocking pattern, the low pressure area that brings the unsettled weather Tuesday to early Wednesday will end up far enough offshore that we are dry from later Wednesday through Friday. But the price to pay for the dry weather will be cool and breezy conditions with a north to northwest flow. It won’t be totally sunny any of these days either as we start with the clouds and some lingering wet weather Wednesday, then see diurnal cloud development underneath a pool of cold air aloft both Thursday and Friday.

TODAY: Clouds and showers eastern CT and parts of RI until about morning, otherwise sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62 southern NH and eastern MA as well as South Coast, 63-70 interior MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to S especially in areas west and south of Boston.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely during the morning. Partly sunny with a chance of a shower in the afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 30 – MAY 4)

Blocking to slow progression in the pattern. Dry, cool to seasonable start as we transition from April to May. Unsettled weather around May 2-4 with a variable temperature trend, briefly milder then possibly much cooler.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 5-9)

Still a a tendency for blocking to take place with slow-moving systems. At least one low pressure system should impact the region with unsettled weather, favoring the early part of the period. A lot of detail to work out, which can’t be done this far in advance.