C-19 Chat Post – 4-25-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 24-28)

We see the evolution of a blocking pattern take place during the next 5 days, typical of spring. We sit on the cool side of a frontal boundary that will make the WHW forecast area cooler than yesterday, and lots of clouds continue to stream down from the NW in the upper level air flow over us, but there is enough dry air that we see these clouds break for sun at times, so not a totally overcast day, and we’re also not seeing the low stratus clouds that can sometimes accompany these onshore air flows – lower levels are not saturated enough, so if you can put up with the cool air, especially near the coast, it’s not really going to be that bad a day today. The same will hold true Monday as the frontal boundary still sits to the south and west but then attempts to make its way back across the region later in the day and evening as a warm front, so areas especially south and west of Boston may see the benefit of a southerly air flow developing with a bit of warming. Tuesday, low pressure tracking north of our area will drag a cold front into the region with the increased opportunity for showers, and a wave of low pressure forming along that front as it goes by us may enhance and prolong shower activity from Tuesday night into part of Wednesday as the entire system slows down in response to developing atmospheric blocking. However, as I felt yesterday, I feel today that the orientation of the blocking set-up allows us to dry out more as we get to later Wednesday and Thursday, although it will be on the breezy and cool side.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, periodic sunshine. Highs 47-54 NH Seacoast, eastern MA, and immediate South Coast, 55-62 elsewhere. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62 southern NH and eastern MA as well as South Coast, 63-70 interior MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to S especially in areas west and south of Boston.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely during the morning. Partly sunny with a chance of a shower in the afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 29 – MAY 3)

Continued idea of blocking pattern with our area on the drier side of it initially, then finally some rain threat around May 1 or 2 as a system from the west makes its way in, but should exit for a drier end to the period. Temperatures should be variable, averaging near to below normal. This remains a lower than average confidence forecast for this time period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 4-8)

Still a a tendency for blocking to take place with slow-moving systems. Remains to be seen how much wet weather we end up with, but we may stay on the drier side of the block once again as well as with cooler air being dominant.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-24-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 23-27)

It’s weekend time! How’s the weather gonna be? Kind of typical springtime in New England, and in case you forgot that we here in the WHW forecast area live near a large body of water, the Atlantic Ocean, you’ll get a reminder. The set-up of weather systems we will see is fairly typical for this time of year. We have high pressure building in eastern Canada and a frontal boundary set to slip south southwestward across the region, but not before we have a decently mild day today (a touch cooler than yesterday). Sunday will end up noticeably cooler, most especially near the coastline. We’ll also see an abundance of high cloudiness sliding in from the northwest with the upper level winds today and these will thicken at times and thin at other times. Right now it looks like the thickest batch of cloud cover will move through tonight and in the pre-dawn hours of Sunday when some patches of light rain may fall. By the time we get to Monday, that boundary is going to try pushing back to the north and east as a warm front, and may succeed by later in the day, so I’m optimistic for breaking clouds, more sun, and warmer air, though it may be late-arriving the further east and north you are. When we get to Tuesday, we see a changing weather pattern start to take place with a low pressure area and frontal system arriving from the west during Tuesday then slowing down as it tries to exit Wednesday, when another wave of low pressure may become involved. This results in a period of unsettled weather, starting mild, then cooling down. There will be some details to fine-tune as we get closer.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix, most abundant sun during the first half of the day. Highs 58-65. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH but local coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain late evening-overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH may start to gust higher near the coast.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds, periodic sunshine. Highs 47-54 NH Seacoast, eastern MA, and immediate South Coast, 55-62 elsewhere. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62 southern NH and eastern MA as well as South Coast, 63-70 interior MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, becoming S to SW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 57-64. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely during the morning. Partly sunny with a chance of a shower in the afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 28 – MAY 2)

We will see some atmospheric blocking and slower-moving weather systems. Right now it looks like the system from Tuesday/Wednesday will be far enough east to keep our area dry but breezy/cool as we head through the final few days of April before the next low pressure system threatens with more unsettled weather by the first couple days of May. This is not a high confidence forecast, however, in terms of the day-to-day weather.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 3-7)

Blocking pattern potential with near to below normal temperatures, near to above normal precipitation at least early part of period. Block may break down mid to late period with zonal flow returning.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-23-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 22-26)

Happy Earth Day 2022. Take care of your planet – it’s the only one you have! Today’s weather will be breezy but pleasant as we enjoy milder air from a down-sloping northwesterly air flow. High pressure building to our north will send slightly cooler air in for Saturday but it will still be on the mild side. We’ll have to wait for a frontal boundary to slip down from the north and northeast Saturday night to bring even cooler air for Sunday. By then we’ll also start to see more cloud cover as well, but the weekend overall will not be that bad – Saturday definitely being the better of the 2 days though. The front that comes through Saturday night will try to push back to the north Monday and may make it at least part-way across the region, and this sets up a tricky temperature forecast with the possibility of a significant temperature spread from one area to another. By Tuesday, a low pressure system arrives from the west with a chance of widespread showers, which by then will be needed as we see an increase in brush fire chances over the next few days.

TODAY: Partly cloudy then mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 .Wind NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55 coast, 55-62 inland. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62 southern NH and eastern MA as well as South Coast, 63-70 interior MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 57-64. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 27 – MAY 1)

Atmospheric blocking slows weather systems down and keeps low pressure in the vicinity for a few days with some additional unsettled weather, then maybe fair weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 2-6)

Blocking pattern potential with near to below normal temperatures, near to above normal precipitation at least early part of period. Block may break down mid to late period with zonal flow returning.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-22-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 21-25)

High pressure slides offshore today with low pressure passing north of our region tonight and early Friday, bringing its warm front / cold front combo across the area. This will be more a cloud and breeze producer than any rainfall, which will be limited to the chance of a brief shower this evening. High pressure builds in southeastern Canada and extends an arm down into our area to bring fair weather Friday night into the weekend, but as a warm front tries to approach the region and struggles, we’ll see a varying amount of cloud cover over the weekend, especially Sunday as it looks now, when we may see it generate a little bit of light rainfall at some point. I’m cautiously optimistic the front gets a push from a shift of high pressure to our east Monday which may allow for a brief warm up on that day…

TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a slight chance of a brief shower southern NH / northern MA. Clearing overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52.Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Chance of light rain late. Highs 57-64. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle. Lows 47-54. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70, cooler coast. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 26-30)

Frontal system and low pressure area brings shower chances April 26. Some atmospheric blocking slows progression of systems and may prolong unsettled weather until later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 1-5)

Blocking pattern potential with near to below normal temperatures, near to above normal precipitation at least early part of period. Block may break down later in the period with zonal flow returning.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-21-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 20-24)

High pressure approaches with bright but breezy and cool weather today. High pressure moves overhead with a clear and very chilly night tonight. The high slides offshore and a warm front moves through Thursday, followed by a cold front Thursday night / early Friday as these fronts’ parent low moves eastward passing to the north of New England. This will be basically a dry frontal pair with most shower activity staying to the north as the system will not carry much moisture with it. Once again, while we warm up a little with the warm front, we’ll be briefly even warmer behind the cold front (similar to a recent event) due to the down-slope effect of a westerly wind. Cooler air will arrive Friday night and the upcoming weekend will be a little on the cooler side as well, because high pressure centered to the northwest and north of New England will transport some cooler air in and also allow for onshore winds to develop. By Sunday, we may see more cloudiness and even some late-day rainfall with the approach of a warm front.

TODAY: Sunshine with passing fair-weather clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing late in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, cooler South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of a brief shower southern NH / northern MA. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52.Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Chance of light rain late. Highs 57-64. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 25-29)

Brief warm-up possible April 25. Frontal system and low pressure area brings shower chances April 26. Some atmospheric blocking may result in a stretch of cooler and unsettled weather midday to later part of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 30 – MAY 4)

Blocking pattern potential with near to below normal temperatures, near to above normal precipitation at least early part of period. Block may break down later in the period with zonal flow returning.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-20-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 19-23)

A potent low pressure area cutting right across New England, center just west of the WHW forecast area, will move northward and away from the area today and tonight. Our rainy/windy start to the day will evolve into a drier one with breaking clouds and shifting wind as the low center moves on. Behind that storm and ahead of approaching high pressure will come a gusty breeze but dry weather tonight and Wednesday before the high center moves overhead Wednesday night with wind dropping off. High pressure shifts offshore Thursday and a southwesterly air flow arrives ahead of a cold front, which passes by with little fanfare Thursday evening, then offshore Friday when we see a wind shift but still mild as any cooler aspect of the air mass behind the front is countered by west wind down-sloping off the mountains to the west. High pressure builds in for Saturday with fair weather and lighter wind, but coastal sea breezes likely.

TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog morning as rain tapers off and ends. Breaking clouds, partial sun, and chance of a passing shower afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind shifting from SE to SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52.Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 24-28)

Warm front in area brings rain threat before the weekend ends April 24. Quick warm-up early next week followed by cold front, shower threat, and a cool-down midweek.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 29 – MAY 4)

Blocking pattern potential. Near to below normal temperatures, near to above normal precipitation.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-19-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 18-22)

It seems like we’ve been talking about Patriots Day forever, but it’s here. This holiday is celebrated in Maine, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, so not every part of the WHW forecast area has this day as a holiday, but in Massachusetts, it’s a significant one in that we now see the return of the Boston Marathon to this day after 2020’s was cancelled and 2021’s was held as a limited-participant race and held in October. And of course there is also the traditional Boston Red Sox late-morning first pitch home game today. We’ve seen all kinds of weather over the years on the day of the Marathon, including snowflakes in the air, wind and rain, and temps as high as the middle 90s. Today, the early-morning low temperature at the start line of the Marathon in Hopkinton MA was 33. But there is bright April sun shining and the temperature, which has already reached the upper 30s there as of 8:00 a.m., will be climbing through the 40s and into 50s along the race course and across the region, although along the coastline that temperature rise will be halted right around 50 as we see a light northerly breeze evolve into a sea breeze. This sea breeze will penetrate a bit of a distance inland, so many of the runners, especially the middle and later runners, will be arriving in the city of Boston and running into a sea breeze head wind. This is also a good time to remind anybody planning to be out along the course to support runners, or at the baseball game at Fenway Park, or anywhere outside for more than just a few minutes, it’s a good idea to apply sun block as you can acquire a sunburn in under an hour if you’re in direct sunlight. Despite the chill of early morning and the afternoon sea breeze, the weather is “being nice” to us, waiting until all these activities are completed before it turns on us. This will be a result of a low pressure area developing and moving up the Middle Atlantic Coast and into our area tonight and early Tuesday. There is enough cold air in place as the precipitation arrives that some snow may fall in the higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH, but a more certain snowfall will occur west of the WHW forecast area in the Berkshires – not unusual for April. But the vast bulk of this system will be a rain event with gusty wind, the direction at any given location determined by the low’s exact track. By Tuesday afternoon, the low center will already be heading away from us and into southeastern Canada via northern New England, and at that time we’ll see a drying trend and gusty westerly wind with chilly air. On Wednesday, we will still feel a bit of a chilly breeze between approaching high pressure and the storm over the Canadian Maritimes, but by late-day and nighttime that wind will be gone as the high center moves over us. But this will also set up a chilly Wednesday night and Thursday morning, and a large temperature diurnal (difference between morning low and afternoon high) as we get into a warming southwesterly air flow ahead of an approaching frontal system on Thursday. This system should pass by with limited rain shower activity later Thursday and early Friday, but a gusty shifting breeze and a cooler Friday…

TODAY: Sunny morning. Increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 51-58, turning cooler coast midday-afternoon. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast with developing rain and the potential for mix/snow with some minor accumulation interior higher elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain likely morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind NE to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening, clearing overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers late in the day. Highs 60-67, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 23-27)

Pattern evolution potential from zonal to blocking. Unsettled weather episodes around April 24 and April 27 are rough guesses at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 28 – MAY 3)

Blocking pattern potential. Near to below normal temperatures, near to above normal precipitation. Detail this far in advance not possible.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-18-2022