C-19 Chat Post – December 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 3-7)

After a mild day yesterday, a strong cold front moved through last night, producing showers and even some thunderstorms with hail and cloud-to-ground lightning strikes in some locations. This has been replaced by blustery and colder conditions, and while today starts with lots of clouds in many areas north of I-90, those clouds will become more scattered as the air dries out and we’ll have a fair amount of sun with passing clouds today, along with a continued gusty wind and chilly air incoming, so temperatures will hold steady and even fall a little during the day. Winds drop off tonight but it’ll be a cold one. No big changes for the weekend outlook – some clouds Saturday along with a slight chance of a few insignificant snowflakes by evening as the remains of a dissipating clipper low pressure system move through, then fair weather on Sunday. After that, we have a more dramatic shift coming up. This type of pattern is notorious for such swings, and this will be exemplified by the low pressure system moving to our north on Monday, dragging a warm front through the region in the early hours of the day, leading to a day that gets well into the 60s, then a strong cold front coming through at night with a line of showers and even possible thunderstorms, then a sharp drop in temperature so that Tuesday will be up to 30 degrees colder, but with dry weather as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes.

TODAY: Lots of clouds southern NH and northern MA early morning, otherwise sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 38-45 early morning then slowly falling temperatures. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W diminishing to near 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few light snow showers. Lows 21-28. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain overnight. Lows 30-37 evening, rising into the 40s overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain early, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a brief shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 8-12)

Active pattern continues. Watching disturbances around December 8 which may include some frozen precipitation for parts of the region and others around December 10 and 12 during a milder spell – so odds favor rain for those.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Mild pattern continues with a couple opportunities for unsettled weather. May have to watch for the return of some cold air by later in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – December 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 2-6)

An active pattern will send two low pressure systems through our region during the next 5 days. The first, today, has a center that passes to the north of the region. Its warm front is coming through this morning with some rain, but that rain has fallen in the form of freezing rain in a few locations in northern Worcester County of MA and far southwestern NH as temperatures were just cold enough there. That situation will improve quickly as the temperature goes up and the region finds itself in the warm sector after warm frontal passage and ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will cause some rain showers later today and this evening. A gusty, shifting wind will accompany the cold front. Behind it comes a shot of cold air along with wind for Friday. It will remain cold into Saturday when a weakening clipper system moves in with clouds but only the slight chance of a few snowflakes. A weak area of high pressure is expected to bring dry weather Sunday before the next low pressure area impacts the region Monday with a warm front / cold front combo as the low sails north of us. A couple rounds of wet weather will be in the form of rain as it will be milder.

TODAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and patches of fog through mid morning. Breaking clouds with partial sun late morning to mid afternoon. Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely later in the day. Highs 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH early becoming SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early evening. Lows 25-32. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 30-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 7-11)

Active pattern – probably two disturbances to impact the region around December 8 & 10 with unsettled weather threats. Precipitation type uncertain, but first system may have a better shot at producing some frozen precipitation for parts of the region. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Fast-flowing jet stream but more of a southwesterly flow and a milder trend expected with a couple minor precipitation threats during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – December 2 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 1-5)

December starts with a continuation of the fast-flowing jet stream pattern and tendency to be on the cooler side of normal as we saw in late November. However, we do have one mild interlude coming, and that will be behind a warm front and ahead of a cold front Thursday. These fronts will bring the threat of a touch of light snow/rain and then rain showers, respectively, as their parent low pressure area passes to our north. Cold/dry air returns Friday with a gusty wind between that system and high pressure to the west. A weak disturbance brings a few more clouds and a chance of a few snow showers Saturday as it passes through while dissipating, and this leads to a fair and chilly day as high pressure builds in from the west Sunday.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Brief light snow to rain possible late evening / overnight. Lows 30-37 evening, rising toward 40 overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early evening. Lows 25-32. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 6-10)

Next low pressure area likely passes north of the region on December 6 producing a period of rain showers with milder air. Fair, colder December 7. Next unsettled weather threat with rain and/or snow possible December 8 depending on track of a follow-up disturbance. Trend is for fair, colder at the of period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Fast-flowing jet stream but more of a southwesterly flow and a milder trend expected with a couple minor precipitation threats during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – December 1 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

The model joy ride continues. Who knows what road they will take next? Or maybe this is more like watching a bunch of people who can’t drive racing around a small track. Whatever you want to compare it to, we continue to see little or no agreement between various models beyond just a number of hours, and models that can’t even agree with themselves from run to run. Instead of beating a dead horse further though right now, just onto how I think the weather unfolds in the time before us. Today’s a cold a one. We start bright then sun battles with some increased high and patchy mid level clouds as the remains of a weakening clipper low move in from the west. This system may produce a brief period of very light snow for parts of our region this evening before it moves out. The pattern of quickly moving disturbances, often timed differently and in most cases weaker than modeled a few days out will continue, and the next one will be in the form of a low pressure area passing north of us Thursday. Its warm front will approach later Wednesday with advancing clouds, and we’ll get into a warm sector between the warm front and an approaching cold front Thursday, at which time any precipitation should be in the form of rain, though it doesn’t look like much will take place. The cold front will come through and clear us back out as we turn windy and colder through Friday. The next weakening clipper type system is due Saturday – again not looking like more than just some cloudiness with a few snow showers possible.

TODAY: Uninterrupted sun through mid morning, then variably cloudy. Highs 36-43. Wind W-SW 5-10 MPH, a few gusts up to 15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with spotty very light snow evening – no accumulation. Clearing overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief very light snow possible late evening. Chance of rain showers overnight. Lows 30-37 evening, followed by a slow temperature rise. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)

No big changes here. Nearly useless guidance. Knowing the pattern helps. The most likely fair weather times are early and again at end of period. December 6-8 is vulnerable to unsettled weather from a couple passing disturbances, which are probably going to be less potent than shown on current medium range guidance.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)

Again no big changes. Take the DAYS 6-10 section and apply it here with even more emphasis on model variability and “inability” further out in time, magnified by the difficulty they have with a fast-flow pattern in a La Nina. We’ll probably have two disturbances potentially impact the region with precipitation chances as the pattern does look somewhat active, but I don’t see it as a pattern that can produce slower moving and/or powerful storms.

C-19 Chat Post – November 30 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

I cannot stress enough how important it is, if you are a model-watcher, or watching/reading a forecast that may be largely model-driven, to not pay grand attention to anything beyond day 3, as it should be very general and if there is too much detail apparent, take it with a grain of salt (as much as I don’t really care for that phrase). I’ve noticed some glaring issues with all guidance with the current pattern and will be trying to work out what is more reliable and what isn’t, which in itself carries risk in making a forecast. Long story short: We’ll have a series of mostly weak systems impacting the region in a pattern of near to below normal temperatures (with one day that is warmer – pay attention). So, one system, originally forecast as some guidance to be an important snowstorm, is departing this morning in the form of … clouds … with a few snow and rain showers having fallen in parts of the region in the 24 hours leading up to its departure. A second weakening clipper system will race toward the region Tuesday sending some more clouds in, and maybe brief very light snow in a few locations with no impact. November ends with a chilly couple of days, and December begins with moderating temperatures midweek, slightly on Wednesday, and more noticeably on Thursday as a warm front approaches Wednesday with more clouds moving in, and a cold front then approaches Thursday before pushing through later in the day (based on rough current timing). This system may produce a few rain showers but will be more of a cloud producer than anything else. Dry, colder air is expected for Friday behind that cold front as we should be in a stronger northwesterly air flow at that time, based on best educated guess with this weather pattern.

TODAY: Variably cloudy, then more sun. Brief sprinkle of rain or flurry of snow possible mainly in areas to the south of Boston during the morning. Highs 35-42. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 10 at times.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then more clouds. Brief very light snow possible mainly in areas to the southwest and west of Boston mid to late afternoon. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)

With significant forecast model uncertainty in play, we’ll continue to watch a pattern of fast-moving systems with eyes on what will likely be a weak one passing by with a minor precipitation threat early in the period, and a weak to moderate system that brings some threat mid to late period. Temperatures overall are expected to average near to below normal. Timing/details of any systems that threaten will fine-tuned when in proper range to do so.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)

Essentially the same forecast as DAYS 6-10 with even more emphasis on model uncertainty in the medium range. The only take-away we have a little hold on is variable temperatures averaging fairly close to normal overall, and at least the good chance of a couple low pressure systems to track with potential impact on the region, the level of which is impossible to determine so far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – November 29 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

We’ll be impacted by a couple minor low pressure systems over this period, but no major storms will occur. Today, in moves the first, more quickly than originally anticipated, resulting in more clouds than I originally had forecast, but the daylight hours will be mainly dry until the very end of the day when spotty light snow (north and west) and rain (southeast) arrives. While a secondary low will develop south of New England tonight, exiting Monday via the Gulf of Maine on its way to southeastern Canada, we’re not looking at rapid intensification and any lingering rain/snow won’t be heavy. Any accumulation of snow will be minor and quite temporary. Behind this system will come a reinforcing shot of cold air for the remainder of Monday and into Tuesday. On Tuesday, a weakening clipper system will approach from the west but it looks as if this system will produce clouds for us, but no precipitation. As December arrives, we see fair and milder weather Wednesday as high pressure dominates, and the next low pressure area, rather small and fast-moving, will drag a warm front / cold front combo through the area with only some rain shower activity possible Thursday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow central MA / northern RI / eastern CT and spotty light rain southeastern MA by late-day. Highs 37-44. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Spotty light rain Cape Cod / South Coast, mix/snow elsewhere. Minor snowfall accumulation (coatings) possible. Lows 28-35. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of light mix/snow favoring southern and eastern areas, then partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Fair, breezy, colder weather is back behind a departing cold front December 3. Fast-moving low pressure brings clouds and a precipitation chance (rain favored over snow) December 4, followed by a period of fair weather. Next low pressure system threatens with precipitation later in the period. This is the previously-mentioned active pattern but without big storms. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)

Active pattern expected with at least a couple low pressure systems to contend with. Temperatures variable but near normal overall. It’s too early to try to guess timing and precipitation types on disturbances.

C-19 Chat Post – November 28 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

As anticipated, snowflakes fell in a good portion of the WHW forecast area last evening, resulting in anything from just flakes in the air with no accumulation from Boston southward to a light coating in nearby suburbs to up to around 1 or 2 inches, even a few 3 inch amounts, in the outlying higher elevation locations. The low pressure area responsible for it formed on a passing cold front and intensified rapidly, pulling a lobe of moisture around its back side as the cold air was getting established, resulting in the snowfall for the region. If you had a barometer and looked at it, or looked up area pressures, you’d have seen that it fell pretty sharply yesterday late afternoon and evening, in response to the formation and rapid strengthening of the low pressure area. But now that low has exited and is moving away via the Canadian maritime provinces. We’ll be in the tight pressure gradient between it and high pressure approaching from the west today, so we’ll have blustery and cold weather, starting with a lot of clouds that will eventually give way to sun. The cold wind will continue tonight but ease up Sunday as high pressure builds across the region, and while it will be a cold day it won’t feel nearly as biting as today will. We’re in a pattern of quick-moving systems, and we’ll turn our attention to a clipper low pressure area moving through the Great Lakes and heading for NY State Sunday night into Monday, spawning a weak secondary low just south of New England that will then move right across the Cape Cod area early Monday. This system will bring a swath of precipitation to the region that is on the light side and not long-lasting. It’ll fall as mostly snow over interior areas and north of Boston, but mix/rain from Boston southward across the South Shore region and along the South Coast. Although areas that see rain may flip to some snowflakes before the precipitation pulls away by midday Monday, and the rest of the day will feature drier but blustery and chilly weather. High pressure slides across the region Monday night then out of the region on Tuesday as a weakening clipper low moves through the Great Lakes again. This system will already be moisture-starved and losing support so it may bring some clouds to our area Tuesday but that should be it with continued dry, cold conditions. A west northwesterly air flow will likely drive a cold front through the region Wednesday, reinforcing the chilly air to start December.

TODAY: Lots of clouds giving way to more sun. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Late evening and overnight light snow chance except mix/rain Boston, South Shore, and South Coast. Snow accumulation of a coating to 1 inch possible mainly over interior areas. Lows 29-36.Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of light mix/snow favoring southern and eastern areas, then partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)

While not “stormy” in the way we often think of it, the pattern will be active with a lot of disturbances coming along in a flow that will shift from west northwest to west southwest. A weak low pressure system will likey pass by with little fanfare early in the period. A low system with a little more moisture available targets a December 4 passage at which time we may briefly warm up to include rain showers, followed by a sharp chill-down and a snow shower possibility as it pulls away.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)

A little more west to southwesterly air flow at upper levels and a little more activity in the jet stream results in better precipitation chances during this period. Temperatures variable, near normal overall.

C-19 Chat Post – November 27 2021