Thursday January 13 2022 Forecast (7:39AM)

111 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)

We have 2 storm systems to deal with before the conclusion of the MLK Jr. Weekend upcoming, but before that a weak disturbance moving through this morning is causing a touch of light snow across portions of southern NH and far northern MA, but this won’t amount to much more than a dusting in a few areas before it moves on and we have a variably cloudy and relatively mild day. Meanwhile, storm #1 is an ocean storm evolving south of New England. The general idea with this system is that it would be too far offshore for much of an impact, and that will be the case, but it will be close enough to throw the northwestern edge of its precipitation shield into far southeastern New England, certainly Cape Cod and the Islands, and possibly as far northwest as the South Shore of MA to eastern RI, and maybe right up to about Boston briefly. This will be mostly in the form of rain as the atmosphere will be generally too warm to support snow, but it may turn just cold enough to mix with or change to snow before it ends from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. While the storm is intensifying offshore it will create a stronger pressure gradient with high pressure north of the Great Lakes, and a northeast to north wind will be increase during Friday with some pretty strong gusts especially along the coast and across Cape Cod. A cold front from the northwest will slip through quietly during all of this but it will be opening the door for another shot of arctic air Friday night and Saturday, at which time some Cape Cod snow showers are likely, where there may be some accumulation. Elsewhere, the cold shot will be met with dry weather. After a more tranquil but cold Sunday, our attention turns to a storm system coming along from the southwest that will impact the region on Monday (MLK Jr Day). There is still some spread across various guidance as to where this storm will track, with possibilities ranging from as far east as near the “benchmark” (40N/70W) just southeast of New England, to as far west as Pennsylvania and NY State. I’m not ready to commit to a track, but my leaning is one that takes the center near or just west of the WHW forecast area, which if is the case, would be a snow to rain (mix well inland) situation. This can still change, and we have a number of days to nail it down. It will likely be a fast-moving system, but I’ll also try to nail down the hour-by-hour aspects as we get much closer to its actual occurrence here.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a little light snow across far northern MA and southern NH this morning. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with a period of rain Cape Cod / Islands that may end as mix, and a chance of a period of rain that may end as mix/snow from the MA South Shore to eastern RI. Breaking clouds later. Highs 35-42 by midday. Temperatures falling later in the day. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower anywhere but snow showers likely Cape Cod / Islands. Lows 5-10 except 10-15 South Coast. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often well below 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except partly cloudy with possible snow showers outer Cape Cod. Highs 16-23. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 0.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-8 except 9-14 South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow overnight. Temperatures rise to 30s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Cloudy with rain/mix/snow likely, ending by late. Highs 38-45. Wind SE to variable 10-20 MPH, stronger gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)

Watch for a couple addition but probably weaker systems to bring mostly minor precipitation threats with temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)

Temperatures near to below normal and additional opportunities for wintry weather.

111 thoughts on “Thursday January 13 2022 Forecast (7:39AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    I still don’t like the looks of the Monday system, but we shall see. Minor hope, 6z gfs ensemble mean is near benchmark.

  3. Thanks TK !

    I think I understand this now.

    The models are too far southeast for Friday and need to trend back further north and west.

    A mere 48 hours later, the models, for Sun/Mon, are too far northwest and need to trend further south and east.

    The love of snow is blinding, LOL !!!!!!!!

      1. I’m the same way with sunny and warm summer weather and the placement of the 500 mb ridge. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. That’s what worries me.

        talking a 60-70 mb difference.

        And a rush of cold air to boot, which can be unstable in its own right.

              1. We don’t have a generator.

                My father-in-law has one, next street over, if we ever needed it in an emergency.

                I’m not well practiced with generators, so, I’d be nervous about not ventilating it properly.

                1. I agree. Ours sits in middle of the yard and my SIL knows what he is doing. Otherwise we wouldn’t have one. But our freezers are stocked since covid and too many $$.

                  It is nice your FIL is nearby.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    An impressive ocean storm brewing that will barely impact us. Where is it headed? Maritimes? Europe, eventually?

    1. Looking at the GFS, it looks like it tracks into Greenland and mills about and redevelops and crashes into Norway and Sweden.

  10. At 84 hrs, on the 500 mb chart of the 12z NAM, the problem for Sunday’s night storm is the trof entering the western Great Lakes.

    I think one can see that it is providing southwest flow aloft ahead of it and if you can project this ahead a bit, its almost like a magnet tugging on the southern stream closed low towards a more inland track.

  11. The 12z HRRR has 50kt wind gusts off Provincetown, 40kts coming at you, Tom, and 30kt gusts where I am in Taunton late Friday night.

    1. Thanks Captain.

      I’m a little concerned because of how cold its going to get.

      If it was going to be in the 20s and 30s all night, I’d be looking more forward to it.

  12. Agreed. We have a propane gas fireplace that has a battery back-up that will keep the flame lit in the event of a power outage.
    I will also set the furnace thermostats up high.

    1. I love the gas FP. I’d opt for one of each, but if only one would stay with propane. I better check our propane. Although, I don’t expect enough outages here to impact us. The main substation has to be impacted for us to lose power.

      We got two smaller gen….er….a….tors last major outage …we have only had three here whereas rest of town loses power at the drop of a hat. They will run both refrigerators, the freezer and heat. No lights. I agreed to get them as long as they run only necessities.

      1. It’s odd how Sutton is wired. I’ve lost power twice (for a significant amount of time) during the last 11 years, and once was during the summer. Other areas of town, as you mentioned, seem to lose it every other week; including my friends a mile away.

    1. Yup, haven’t liked this system for awhile now. I was encouraged
      by the 6Z GFS ensembles. We shall see what the 0Z ensembles look like.

  17. A shift west on the GEFS ensembles west with the mean going over the Islands. Though we are not liking the guidane of today, all pieces of the puzzle are not over the NA continent yet for the storm’s development. Tonights will be important but really we need to watch the trough and energy diving out of Canada Friday night/Saturday this weekend to truly understand what will happen with this system for us here in New England. With that said the 6z guidance of the EURO did shift east. It seems like they are on a collision course and I feel that this system will be a snow to rain event but have good front end thump before the changeover and by then who knows maybe the majority of the precip is over as we go into a large dry slot with the comma head shape precipitation field.

  18. Even in the epic 1977-1978 winter we had some big rainmakers.

    Two specifically come to mind:
    January 9 & January 26, the second of which was Chicago’s “Blizzard of 78”.

    Here we had temps in the 50s and 60s with powerhouse SE winds. Flooded basements were common.

      1. Yes and no.
        Just putting it in perspective.

        A pattern like 2015, for example, where you have a series of major very cold and nothing but snow storms is fairly rare for SNE.

  20. Thanks TK.

    In agreement with your thoughts on the Sunday-Monday storm. This one’s heading inland, coastal hugger at a minimum but very possibly closer to the Lakes. Still some potential for some front end snow or sleet in SNE, though with warm air pouring in aloft, if there is frozen precip look for sleet to dominate. Major winter storm likely for parts of the Deep South and up through the Appalachians though.

    Pattern should still support plenty of cold air and additional storm chances the next two weeks, with initial indications now showing up of a pattern breakdown and return to warmer come early February. Really all on track with a lot of the thinking about this winter.

  21. This pattern isn’t all that different from the 2015 snow blitz pattern. Not identical, sure, but plenty of similarities. And with that, it’s easy to see how an occurrence like the snow blitz, while unlikely, is possible. SNE already got one good hit last week. Now likely two misses for winter weather – the big ocean storm offshore tomorrow and then the warmer system Sunday-Monday. But imagine if two or even all three of these had hit, with still more in the pipeline… that’s basically what happened in January-February 2015. Of course, it’s quite unusual for all of the potentials to become reality. But this is the best “stormy” deep winter pattern in at least the past 3 seasons, probably more.

    1. yes, but will anything materialize? That is the question. We would assume yes, but it doesn’t necessarily have to happen that way. All of the potentials could end up misses either ots or inside
      with rain.

      1. Well, there’s already been one hit. And after Monday, I would expect about 2 to 3 more legitimate winter storm chances through the end of the month and likely the end of the pattern. We’ll see how Mother Nature’s aim is with the next ones – been pretty all over the place so far 🙂

      1. Damn! If you copy the whole link with the blob: included and paste in new browser window it will work.

        Having some issues with computer and was forced to
        use Firefox as a browser

  23. I am trying to get a fix on this weekend’s weather in Natick. Looks like wind gusts should be in the 30-40 mph range and the storm Monday looks to be rain. Any ballpark on the rain totals? Let me know if I am off base. Thanks.

    1. I think a dry slot is in play after a few to several hour period of heavy precip for Sun night/Monday, so shouldn’t be excessive precip totals. Maybe .5 to 1.5 depending on where the heaviest precip lines up.

  24. Aren’t we still 3.5 days out from Sunday/Monday? Models still seem to be all over the place. With model performance so poor I wouldn’t rule anything out..

    1. Nothing new in this pattern and there is a puzzle piece everyone’s missing. Been taking about it with SAK today. I’ll go into more detail soon.

      Driving then outside for a while…

  25. I was just chatting with TK, and there’s a big piece to this that everyone is missing. Don’t pay so much attention to the upper low moving into the Pacific Northwest tonight. Yes, it’s the main driver of the storm, but most of the models are in very good agreement over where it will go, so having it move inland tonight won’t change the models too much. The feature to pay attention to is the follow-up northern stream shortwave, and how it interacts with the cutoff low over the South and East Sunday night and Monday. By Sunday morning, as that shortwave moves into the Northern Plains, the models are nowhere near in agreement on exactly where it will be and how strong it will be. That shortwave is currently over the Gulf of Alaska, and won’t be inland and over the upper-air network until at least tomorrow night. So, until then, I’m still treating all model solutions as suspect.

    2. Interesting, but what does in mean for sensible weather
      for the Boston area? Is snow still on the table?
      thanks

      1. Basically it means that there is no solid solution. The concept was pretty much the reason why I wrote that I was leaning a certain way above but not solid on it. And to cover that I included rain/mix/snow in my forecast for Monday.

        1. You I understand that, I was simply asking, if it was at all possible that if it turned out a certain way, that snow
          would be on the table.

            2. Thank you. That is all I wanted to hear. Not that it is necessarily the solution. I just wanted to know if that was still on the table. 🙂

  28. WxWatcher, I love your analyses and contributions.

    I’m going to politely disagree, however, on this pattern being anything like 2015 or 2011, for that matter. It just isn’t a sustained cold pattern, or a somewhat predictable one. I thought (had hoped) it would be, but yesterday and today, and the model mayhem for Monday’s snow/mix to rain storm (as well as other things I’m seeing) have changed my mind. There isn’t anything sustained about this pattern. It’s kind of all over the place.

    We definitely had a sustained period – 6 weeks- of snow chances but ALSO cold in 2011 (my all-time favorite winter period, by the way). Similar period in 2015.

    I am not seeing it now at all. Too much oscillation; too many high pressure areas in the `wrong’ place; too many low pressure areas meandering `aimlessly’ on models.

    And if there’s a (further) warm-up in early February, man will I be sorely disappointed.

    1. So far, definitely not. I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised by the next 2-3 weeks though, as we’re still early in this pattern. In 2015, the coldest air didn’t really come into play until about 2+ weeks after the pattern changed to stormier. This is pretty typical (storms preceding the cold), and will likely be the case again this time. At the very least, the cold should be more sustained for the next couple weeks. However, the magnitude of it probably won’t be as impressive as some other cold snaps of the 2010s due to a lack of help from the polar vortex.

    2. He definitely pointed out it wouldn’t be identical but highlights similarities. There are also differences too. But I agree, based on my best educated guess, that the next 3 weeks hold some legitimate chances and after that the pattern may very well become less favorable. There are always wild cards in weather prediction, but we still have to give it our best shot.

      An example, hypothetical scenario…
      We have a pattern that looks good, holds opportunities, but the WHW gets rain because the storm tracked too far west on a couple and grazed with light snow because a storm tracked too far southeast on a couple. But those several events still produced good winter weather “somewhere”, just not right here. And then comes a period where the overall pattern is less favorable. Maybe a Southeast ridge and no blocking etc for example. But one brief set-up with high pressure to the north, cold air, and a nice wave running out just south of us and we get an overrunning snowstorm of 6 to 12 inches or something like that, and here you are with a good snow event in a “bad” pattern for snow. These things happen, and it’s why us mets are constantly assessing and reassessing, based on our best knowledge and experience (no matter how many years we’ve been doing it – because we all started at zero at one point. And even with great tools, sometimes those tools are not going to be as useful, as we are seeing in this particular pattern. This is all part of our science. There are things we know well, and things we’re constantly learning about as we go along.

      For me, the fascination always outweighs the frustration. 🙂

  30. Just for comparison and to SAK’s point above…

    Today’s ECMWF 12z is about 150 miles further east with the surface low for Monday than yesterday’s ECMWF 12z. This is not a done deal yet. 🙂 I’m not saying it’s suddenly going to be a 40/70 snow bomb, but a snowier solution is not out of the question. I agree with not trusting any guidance until 00z Saturday, at earliest. I’m thinking more like 12z Saturday before I start to do that.

      1. Keeping in mind the uncertainty that still exists, my best guess at the moment is the bulk of whatever happens is going to take place during the calendar hours of January 17. If I had to guess, I think we get through all of Sunday without much of anything.

        1. Sorry meant late Sunday night if anything on Sunday. It’s why I didn’t call my private model into play. But by early Saturday there would a good idea correct?

          1. Yes. I think by the time I do Saturday morning’s update I’ll be ready to detail everything, then hope for the best.

            I don’t think we’ll have any precipitation (of any kind) during daylight Sunday and probably even well into Sunday evening.

  31. Thank you, WxWatcher and TK, for your comments. I really appreciate it. I know little about weather, but what I do know has come from you.

    1. No problem. You know I always like to come at things from an educational perspective. Weather is not always easy to explain. 😉

      1. Well, you’re very good at educating. And, you’re patient.

        I can be an easily frustrated person in winter (not cold and snowy enough) and summer (too hot and humid). It’s weather. I shouldn’t complain. I know.

    1. Yup. We’ll definitely see some more bouncing around for another 24 to 30 hours of runs before we can maybe start to see the beginning of the zeroing-in.

        1. I’m not so sure they are indicating it to be a certainty with regard to the current forecast track. The TV presentation does have to pick at least some kind of direction to lean because it’s much harder to get away with standing in front of a camera and saying “I don’t know” or “I don’t trust the tools I use to help me predict the weather” and they definitely don’t have time to explain it. The one met I saw today did mention the uncertainty factor. 🙂

      2. Guess I’ll have to think about whether I want to do this storm or not . I get off at 7am Sunday morning & off until 11pm Tuesday night so it would be all overtime. Decisions, decisions lol .

  33. Just as a point of comparison…

    12z operational GFS: Two low centers, the dominant one passing west of the WHW area.
    18z operational GFS: A stronger eastern low, passing over or just east of Cape Cod.

    Long way to go …

  34. Unusual behavior between the GFS and GEFS continues. 18z operational a little east, but ensembles shift considerably further west. This all seems to be converging on the inland track though, I think we’ll be able to “slam dunk” it tomorrow, minus the finer details.

  35. Here is the 18z GEFS:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eus&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2022011318&fh=96

    Finally starting to see much better consolidation of the ensemble members with a mean track over SE MA and the ensemble mean is now more closely aligned with the operational.

    I think a track up I-95/coastal hugger scenario similar to this mean is where this will ultimately end up. Will be interesting to see what if anything happens to these model depictions when that northern stream energy comes into a better sampled area.

    Stronger northern steam energy I assume would mean a bigger faster phase and draw this storm in further west. Weaker piece of energy and the southern stream remains more dominant and makes the turn up the coast more slowly, yielding a more easterly solution. We’ll see. Still time for adjustments at 3 days out.

  36. TK:

    DId NBC, CNBC, CNN or ABC give you an idea when stories about Mom might air?

    Think we should have a Mom watch party! 🙂

    2. Not sure on CNBC ..
      NBC Nightly News is either tomorrow night or over the weekend.

      GMA is interviewing next week so I’m not sure about that.

      Same with Inside Edition. Much of it is still TBA. 🙂

      I’m the photo / video person for NBC since theirs was zoom, so I’m working on the stuff for their edit as we speak.

  39. The Ocean storm that is forming off the East coast bombing out with a drop of 46mb being forecasted by the GFS and other models!! 956mb storm off the coast of Novia Scotia.

      2. we would be in a full blown blizzard with major coastal issues and many people without power. could have been one of those storms that we talk about for years if it was. Sadly it is to far east. Cape cod and the Islands though could see some snow and rain showers out of it.

      3. I’m starting to wonder if it may not be as powerful as currently progged, not by a lot, but not really a bomb either.

  40. Ensemble breakdown for todays Bedford. ( Avg
    GEFS 00z to 18z
    snowfall in inches. Members of each run for today broken down into 4 ranges. FYI many of the 10+ are much higher than that.

    00z 6z 12z 18z
    10+ 10 11 10 11
    5-9 3 8 9 8
    2-4 7 6 9 8
    0-1 10 5 2 3
    Avg 6 7 8 8
    Latest ooz is much lower than the 8 of the previous runs.
    EPS ensembles
    00z 12z
    10+ 2 2
    5-9 6 15 (many lower end)
    2-4 20 19
    0-1 22 9
    AVg 3 4

    EPS & GFS ( remember different number of ensembles for each) only 00z & 12z
    00z 12z
    10+ 12 12
    5-9 9 24
    2-4 27 28
    0-1 32 11

    Still a good spread in the ensembles. Like others have said probably won’t have a good handle until tomorrow runs particularly tomorrow 00z runs and to see what the storm is actually doing down south.

  41. The northern stream wave is the key to this entire system. A flatter, weaker wave means the trough is flatter, and the storm goes farther south and east, like the GFS shows. A deeper wave sharpens up the trof in the east, keeping the storm farther north and west.

    It is worth noting that most of the 00z models have shifted south and east with the system tonight, and have a track close to NYC.

  43. 6z gfs ensembles have come N&W.
    So fst,loone like storm will pass right over Boston area. salvages a good dump
    for uo North and well inland, but virtually nothing along the coast.

    At first when cold enough for snow aloft, with that warm ocean, boundary layer issues near the coast.

    Will continue to watch. hope for flatter
    northern stream trough.

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