C-19 Chat Post – September 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

The middle day of the Labor Day Weekend will be the “least fair” but also could be much worse. We’ll have a cloud-dominated day as a warm front approaches, but any shower activity will be fairly limited during the day with the better chance of passing shower activity occurring during tonight. Humidity levels come up today and into early Monday but not to oppressive levels, until a cold front, which may kick off a shower or thunderstorm, passes by during the day Monday from west to east across the region. Overall, Labor Day itself will be a fairly nice day with more sun than today. High pressure brings fair weather Tuesday but a warm front which approach later Tuesday with more clouds arriving, putting us into a warmer and more humid air mass into Wednesday when a cold front will approach with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. Another drier air mass is expected to arrive during Thursday behind that system.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible. Highs 70-77. Wind S increasing to 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A few showers possible. More humid. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly sunny. A shower possible early. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 5-15 MPH wit higher gusts, shifting to W.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Highs 70-77. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Early clouds then mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

Hurricane Larry expected to be far offshore but as a strong storm will result in large ocean swells, rough surf, and enhanced rip current activity along the coast. West to east upper level air flow pattern expected. Best guess on timing of disturbances is late September 10 to early September 11, and again late September 12 to early September 13. Temperatures will vary but will not stray too far from normal during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

Likely to see a continued west-to-east flow pattern with limited shower chances around air mass changes which result in some up and down temperatures but with warmer than normal in control the majority of the time. Having just passed the peak of the hurricane season and with conditions somewhat favorable for additional activity in the western portion of the Atlantic Basin we will continue the need to be vigilant in regard to this.

C-19 Chat Post – September 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

It’s a 2 1/2 out of 3 kind of holiday weekend, and honestly all 3 days will have very nice weather. Today is the sunniest day with lowest humidity as high pressure moves from over the region to just offshore. Humidity comes up a little bit on Sunday as a trough approaches from the west, bringing more clouds, but still a fair amount of sun, and then a trough crosses the region later Sunday night into Monday (Labor Day) when our best chance of showers comes, but we likely salvage many rain-free hours on Monday too. When you compare the three “warm season” holiday weekends this year, this one wins. Looking into next week a little, the next trough approaches later Tuesday bringing a warm front toward the region, then a cold front swings through Wednesday. I’m favoring faster timing of this feature in a quick west-to-east flow and a minor and fairly brief shower threat with the passages of the fronts.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. A few showers possible. Highs 73-80. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Highs 70-77. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers followed by clearing. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

West-to-east flow aloft. Best guess timing of weak disturbances / fronts with shower threats is September 10 & 12. Much of the period is likely to be dry. Offshore Hurricane Larry produces a period of large ocean swells, rough surf, and enhanced rip current risks.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

Likely to see a continue west-to-east flow pattern with limited shower chances around air mass changes which result in some up and down temperatures but with warmer than normal in control the majority of the time. Having just passed the peak of the hurricane season and with conditions somewhat favorable for additional activity in the western portion of the Atlantic Basin we will also need to be vigilant in regard to this as well.

C-19 Chat Post – September 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

As surface high pressure approaches from the west today an upper disturbance will be moving across the region. The combination is dry air but a sun/cloud mix and a chance of a couple pop up showers forming. High pressure moves overhead tonight with a clearing and cool night resulting, then the high slides offshore Saturday with a pleasantly warm-up during the day and a spectacular start to the Labor Day Weekend. The rest of the weekend will be impacted by a low pressure trough moving across the region from west to east with varying amounts of clouds, although at this point I think shower activity will be fairly limited with just scattered activity around later Sunday and part of Monday. I would not cancel any outdoor plans for that. Another trough may approach as early as the end of the day Tuesday with more clouds but I’m not sure of the timing of that yet.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated afternoon shower. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A couple passing showers possible. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. A few showers possible. Highs 70-77. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

Current timing suggest shower threats exist about September 8 and 10, otherwise mostly dry weather with some up and down temperatures from a generally zonal flow weather pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

Same basic pattern – some up and down temperatures with limited shower chances. We will have to keep an eye out for disturbances and possible tropical activity both south and east of New England for potential impact, even if indirect.

C-19 Chat Post – September 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

The very heavy rainfall event that was made up of the remains of Ida combined with a frontal boundary is coming to an end and we’ll be left with a gusty breeze as we start to dry out this morning behind departing low pressure. Winds will diminish this afternoon as high pressure builds toward New England from southern Canada but we will still be in the northeasterly air flow through Friday until the high builds right over the region for the start of the Labor Day Weekend with dry, pleasant weather. The high shifts offshore by Saturday night and low pressure passing north of the region will bring a quick warm front / cold front combo through the region Sunday, which will have more clouds and the risk of showers, but I expect these to be limited. Fair weather returns behind this system for Monday to finish off the Labor Day Weekend.

TODAY: Showers/downpours lingering over Cape Cod until mid morning. Any lighter shower end elsewhere. Clouds break for sun. Highs 67-74. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated afternoon shower. Highs 71-78. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon with a late day or evening shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 73-80. Wind SE shifting to SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

Current timing suggest shower threats exist about September 8 and 10, otherwise mostly dry weather with some up and down temperatures from a generally zonal flow weather pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

Same basic pattern – some up and down temperatures with limited shower chances.

C-19 Chat Post – September 2 2021

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

The now post tropical remains of Ida will present themselves as a mass of tropical moisture riding along and over a frontal boundary with a strengthening area of low pressure later today through early Thursday, the low center tracking near or over Cape Cod. This path and set-up is good for a widespread heavy rainfall event from later today to early Thursday morning, resulting in areas of flooding. Travel will be impacted for a number of hours and even into Thursday after the rain ends as it will take a while for things to dry out. Wind will be only a minor issue as the intensifying system moves by and pulls away, but even some moderate wind gusts can be enough to result in power outages due to wet and already stressed trees on saturated ground and their ability to damage power lines. Drier air will be coming into the region behind the departing system for the remainder of Thursday and into Friday on a northwesterly air flow, and the air will be just unstable enough on Friday for the potential for a few isolated diurnal showers to develop, but most of the region stays rain-free. Looking into the Labor Day Weekend, high pressure brings dry and pleasant weather Saturday, and the next system’s arrival is going to be a little sooner than I was anticipating previously, so look for clouds and a shower chance Sunday morning-midday as a warm front passes through, and just a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in a few locations later Sunday or Sunday night after we’re briefly in a warm wedge of air and a cold front approaches as low pressure passes north of our region.

TODAY: Thickening overcast. Rain arriving southwest to northeast this afternoon. Highs 70-77, coolest along the coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog. Rain, often moderate to heavy. Embedded thunderstorms favoring the South Coast especially Cape Cod. Lows 58-65. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the South Coast.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with areas of fog into mid morning with rain and embedded thunderstorms diminishing from southwest to northeast. Becoming partly sunny by late morning on. Highs 67-74. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast with higher gusts, but a period of variable wind possible Cape Cod region, shifting to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers. Highs 71-78. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon with a late day or evening shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 73-80. Wind SE shifting to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

Brief visit from high pressure bringing dry weather for Labor Day September 6. Passing disturbances bring shower chances September 7 and again later in the period. Mild September 7, cooler September 8, milder later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

Cooler early and late period, mid period warm up. Limited rainfall chances.

C-19 Chat Post – September 1 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

The final day of August will be one of the nicer days of the summer with a sun/cloud mix, lowering humidity, but still warm, as a weak area of high pressure moves in. This high pressure area will move away by early Wednesday and we will then eye the approach of the low pressure area that was once Hurricane Ida from the southwest. As this area of low pressure and its associated moisture stretches out along a frontal boundary as it moves into and through the region Wednesday night into Thursday, it becomes more difficult to pinpoint where the axis of heaviest rainfall will be. Similar to a winter system there can be a rather sharp drop off in precipitation gradient, and even the timing is still a little in question, with some guidance taking the system out of here rather quickly Thursday afternoon while other models linger the rainfall into Thursday evening. Currently, my leaning is slightly faster on the timing, but still a significant rainfall (over 1 inch and up to a few inches of rain) especially in the I-95 & I-90 belts south and east. Tweaks to come if needed. Drier air arrives Friday but still have to watch for a pop up shower due to marginal instability being worked on by daytime heating. High pressure brings great weather Saturday to start off Labor Day Weekend.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, tapering off late day when clouds may break especially northwest of Boston. Areas of fog through midday. Highs 65-72. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing. Areas of fog. Any lingering rain ends. Lows 58-65. Dew point lower 60s to upper 50s. Wind N to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers. Highs 71-78. Dew point near 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

Sunday of Labor Day Weekend (Sep 5) will be fair, mild, and a tiny bit more humid as high pressure shifts and the wind blows from the southwest. Labor Day Monday features warm and humid weather with a chance of passing showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches the region. Trend is to drier/cooler for the middle of next week but the transition may be a little delayed to get there with one more disturbance to come through. Will keep an eye on that.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

Cool/dry interlude early period, warming up again mid to late period as a larger area of high pressure drifts from northwest to southeast across the Northeast. A period of showers may accompany the shift from cooler to warmer weather.

C-19 Chat Post – August 31 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

A warm front is passing through the region this morning and introducing a shot of very warm and muggy air, but a cold front approaching on the quick from the northwest will also trigger the chance of showers and thunderstorms today, especially mid afternoon into evening. I’m not expecting widespread but rather scattered coverage of these showers and storms in one or possibly two waves. Any of the storms can become strong to severe, but this will be a rather isolated occurrence. Activity settles down later this evening and overnight as the front pushes through and introduces a slightly drier air mass for Tuesday, although it will still be on the warm side with a sun/cloud mix for the final day of August. Cooler air will filter in at night as the wind shifts more to the north and eventually to the east. September arrives Wednesday and we’ll be watching the remains of Hurricane Ida, heading in our direction from the southwest. As this event draws closer, it looks like the low pressure area that was once the hurricane, in the form of a post-tropical , weaker but defined low pressure center, will be passing to the south of New England, far enough to keep us from re-entering the tropical air mass on the other side of the front the low will have linked up with, but close enough to spread its rain shield into southeastern New England, with current timing Wednesday night and Thursday. Some guidance moves this out rather quickly Thursday while other guidance allows it to hang around longer into Thursday night too. So the end-timing is still a bit in question. I have slowed it down slightly in comparison to yesterday’s outlook. Regardless, drier air moves in by Friday but there may be just enough instability left in the atmosphere to pop a couple diurnal showers.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mainly southern NH and central MA early afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible all areas mid afternoon on. Highs 81-88. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, can be strong and gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms into late evening favoring eastern MA, RI, and eastern CT. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, tapering off late day when clouds may break especially northwest of Boston. Areas of fog through midday. Highs 65-72. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing. Areas of fog. Any lingering rain ends. Lows 58-65. Dew point lower 60s to upper 50s. Wind N to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers. Highs 71-78. Dew point near 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

Labor Day Weekend… High pressure in control to start with dry and pleasant Saturday September 4 with low humidity, then similar Sunday September 5 with a slight increase in humidity. Monday September 6 humid with passing showers and thunderstorms possible as a cold front approaches and passes through the region. Drier, cooler weather expected to arrive for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

Warmest early and late period, cooler interlude mid period with an air mass from Canada. Showers will be limited, probably the best chance with air mass change late September 9 or September 10.

C-19 Chat Post – August 30 2021