C-19 Chat Post – October 30 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

The full clearing of the sky in most of the region late yesterday into the early morning hours today allowed for the temperature to fall to as much as 5 to 10 degrees lower than my forecast low temperatures for this morning. This allowed for some frost to form in some areas that had not seen it yet. Normal cold spots outside of the urban areas even saw low temperatures go to near or slightly below freezing. A deck of stratus clouds has already moved back into east coastal MA and also stretches across southern RI at sunrise, and these areas are likely to see very limited if any sun today, keeping it rather chilly given the colder overnight low temperatures. Further inland there will be some sunshine to start, but some of the lower cloudiness from the east as well as an eventual increase in high to mid level cloudiness associated with approaching low pressure from the southwest will put an end to the sunshine there as we go through the day. The aforementioned low pressure area is the second of the two to impact the region this week. This was once the West Coast “bomb cyclone” you may have heard of on the news while we were dealing with our own powerful storm a few days ago. This system has already maxed out in intensity, and while it is a larger system in terms of areal coverage, it is a weaker system than the one we experienced earlier this week. The main low pressure area from this will move into the northern Appalachians and then redevelop south of New England, but instead of becoming intense and doing a loop like the last one, it will just move northward and across the region later Saturday before pulling off to the north of the region by Sunday. Rainfall will come in 2 main surges, one during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday, and another that will wash out most of Saturday midday through evening, when pockets of heavy rain and even some embedded thunder may occur. Winds will not be too serious with this system, but gusts up to 40 MPH may occur mainly in RI and eastern MA coastal areas for several hours during its passage. This will slow down cleanup and recovery efforts from the previous storm, and may result in some additional damage to compromised trees. In addition, we’ll see some slippery leaf-covered roads and leaf-clogged storm drains, so a travel hazard will be present from this as well. The good news: A drying westerly air flow arrives in time for Sunday along with relatively mild air for the end of October. There is only the slightest chance of a passing rain shower during the day but expect a mainly dry day and a dry evening with temperatures falling into the 50s for trick-or-treat. We’ll be in a westerly to northwesterly air flow early next week with a slight cooling trend. Dry weather will be in control most of the time, but the rain shower chance goes up later Tuesday with the approach of a cold front.

TODAY: Coastal clouds. Inland sun followed by clouds. Highs 48-55, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Cloudy with rain arriving overnight. Temperatures steady 48-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the South Coast.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, especially midday-afternoon including the chance of thunder. Areas of fog. Highs 56-63. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas where gusts up to 40 MPH are possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a brief passing rain shower. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Evening temps (trick-or-treat time) falling into 50s. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Rain showers possible late-day or at night. Highs 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

A lingering rain shower possible early November 3 as a cold front pulls offshore. A wave of low pressure may bring a period of rain November 4. Temperatures near to below normal midweek. Mostly dry weather and below normal temperatures later next week but an upper level low pressure area may produce a rain and/or snow shower by the November 6-7 weekend. A killing freeze is also possible by the end of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Fair and cool weather to start this period, then a rainfall threat by mid period marking a switch to milder weather by the end of the period. Details of this evolution are uncertain at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – October 29 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

A high pressure area centered in Quebec will nose southward between departing low pressure off the coast to the east and another low approaching from the southwest. This will bring rain-free weather to us today and Friday, albeit with a fair amount of cloudiness due to moisture that is trapped in the lower atmosphere, a few thousand feet above the ground. There will be enough drying for at least some breaks of sun, however. So while it will be on the cool side with a north to northeast air flow, it won’t be all that bad. These conditions will be favorable for cleanup and power restoration efforts in the wake of the powerful storm we had. Speaking of storms, we do get a visit from that low approaching from the southwest as it moves across the Northeast Saturday, bringing us another rainy and breezy period of weather, but this time not nearly as severe as what we just saw. This low will be weaker and have a different track, more directly southwest-to-northeast, not allowing the same things to take place. This low will move right along and be out of here by Sunday, and aside from the slight chance of a passing rain shower as a trough swings through, Sunday will be quite a nice day with a sun/cloud mix and mild air. Sunday evening’s weather will be dry and slightly cooler but nice for trick-or-treat. The air flow turns a bit more northwesterly for Monday with fair, cooler weather.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind NNE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Cloudy with rain arriving overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the South Coast.

SATURDAY: Overcast with periods of rain and areas of fog. Highs 56-63. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a brief passing rain shower. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Evening temps (trick-or-treat time) falling into 50s. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

A disturbance brings a brief rain chance sometime November 2 and a stronger one brings a rain chance November 4. Otherwise mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected on the other days based on current timing and expected progressive pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

Leaning a little further away from the return to blocking, or we may see a much weaker version of it try to get going in an otherwise somewhat progressive pattern. If things time as I expect them to we’ll start and end this period with fair weather and have a disturbance mid period with a chance of briefly unsettled weather.

C-19 Chat Post – October 28 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 27-31)

The wind battering has been pretty significant and as we expected would be a greater factor than the rainfall with the storm system impacting the region. The low center is done with its loop and will be pulling away to the southeast today, but improvement will be gradual with rainfall tapering off and eventually ending, and moderate to strong wind gusts only gradually diminishing. Additional travel issues and power outages can occur through the day with only the very gradual improvement in the weather expected. We get a break Thursday and Friday between systems as a little nose of high pressure from the north comes down from Canada, but the next low arrives later Friday night and gives us an unsettled, rainy/breezy Saturday. We won’t see conditions quite like we did with this one as this low will be further west and not as strong. It will lift out of the region on Sunday which looks like it will bring improving weather, but maybe a passing shower with a lingering trough in the region however. Although the outlook for Halloween is not that bad – on the mild side and generally dry.

TODAY: Overcast with periods of rain and drizzle gradually tapering off. Highs 48-55. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts, gradually diminishing.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain arriving late. Temperatures steady 52-59. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain. Highs 56-63. Wind SE to variable 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing shower. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

High pressure brings fair and seasonably cool weather for the first day of November. A couple waves of low pressure may bring brief rain chances around November 2 and 4 though timing and details remain uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

While I lean toward a drier pattern with variable temperatures, we may see another blocking situation evolve. Something to watch. Forecast remains low confidence.

C-19 Chat Post – October 27 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 26-30)

It’s time for the first of two storm systems to impact our region during this interlude of blocking. As a primary low over the northern Mid Atlantic weakens, a low pressure area that was off the Carolinas has started to move to the north northeast and will be captured by upper level low pressure, doing a cyclonic loop while reaching maximum intensity just south of New England tonight / early Wednesday before moving away and gradually weakening. The early part of this system is in the form of shower bands, some with heavy rain, that have been impacting the region since late last night and will continue to do so today before a more solid area of rainfall fills in across the region for several hours, before gradually tapering off Wednesday. The strongest winds are going to occur along the coastal areas, especially near the South Coast, during tonight, closest to the tightly wrapped up low as it makes its closest approach on the west-moving portion of its loop. We will see pockets of damage, especially with so many vulnerable trees due to a wet summer and very moist ground. As previously mentioned, leaves coming off trees will block storm drains leading to additional flooding, and leaves covering roadways also can make it hard to see lanes and lead to slippery conditions, not unlike snow and ice in winter. Use caution if you need to travel! We get a break Thursday and a good portion of Friday as high pressure in eastern Canada noses down into New England between two storm systems, the second of which will be a little weaker with more direct track to the west of the WHW forecast area. It will spread its first rainfall into our area Friday night, probably on the later side, and bring us an unsettled Saturday with additional rain and breezy weather, though not looking nearly as strong for wind as the first one…

TODAY: Overcast with rain and areas of fog. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations where gusts above 40 MPH are possible.

TONIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations where gusts above 45 MPH are likely.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and drizzle in the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain arriving late. Temperatures steady 52-59. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain. Highs 56-63. Wind SE to variable 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Low pressure should be north and east of the region by October 31 and while there is still the chance of rain showers an overall drying trend with a westerly wind is expected. High pressure brings fair and seasonably cool weather for the first day of November. A couple waves of low pressure may bring brief rain chances around November 2 and 4 though timing and details are not certain.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

While I lean toward a drier pattern with variable temperatures, we may see another blocking situation evolve. Something to watch. Forecast is low confidence.

C-19 Chat Post – October 26 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 25-29)

A blocking pattern with high pressure in eastern Canada (Quebec) and low pressure to its south over our region means an unsettled and at times stormy stretch this week. Two storm systems will impact the region. The first of the two will be the most potent consisting of an initial low pressure area moving in from the west today and redeveloping south of New England tonight, doing a cyclonic loop while intensifying to its maximum just south of the region Tuesday before starting to move away Wednesday. This system will bring the most significant rain and wind to the region. The strongest winds will occur in coastal areas and higher elevations. Also keep in mind that we’re at a time of year where leaf drop is increasing, only to be enhanced by this type of weather, which can lead to slippery roads where leaves cover them and additional flooding where leaves block storm drains. A second low will have likely maxed out in intensity to the southwest of our region before it approaches later on Friday, but with the threat of more rain arriving sometime Friday night. Between these systems will be a drier interlude but not likely with much, if any, clearing.

TODAY: Cloudy with rain tapering off during the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain returns. Areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain and areas of fog. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations where gusts above 40 MPH are possible.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations where gusts above 40 MPH are likely.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and drizzle in the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain returns at night. Highs 52-59. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

Storm system impact the region with showery and breezy weather over the October 30-31 weekend, wettest Saturday, likely drying out somewhat Sunday for Halloween. Cooler, drier to start November but have to watch a frontal boundary for a wave of low pressure at some point.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

We have to watch the atmosphere’s tendency to block again with another storm system possible in this period. With colder air nearby, we may even need to consider something other than rain at least for interior locations. But it’s very early and that’s highly speculative.

C-19 Chat Post – October 25 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 24-28)

A perfect overnight for radiational cooling resulted in frost for many areas away from the coast. Even though low temperatures were above freezing in some areas that got frost, this occurs because the thermometer sensor is at a location about 5 feet above the ground where right at the ground it can be up to a few or even several degrees colder. For example, my low temperature here was 38, but there is frost on a car in a lower part of the adjacent property, away from any buildings. Despite the chilly start, we do recover today with lots of sun pushing temperatures back to the 50s to around 60, though you’ll notice the sun fading as we get later into the day. This marks a change in the pattern for the coming week. We’ll see the development of a Rex block, with high pressure to the north, in this case centered over eastern Canada, especially Quebec, and upper level low pressure to its south. This is going to allow the first of two low pressure areas to impact our region over a drawn-out stretch of time, beginning with an initial band of rain ahead of a warm front arriving late tonight into Monday morning before it pushes off to the north. The warm front will never make it through the region, becoming stationary and staying to the south. Its parent surface low will be forced east southeastward and start to weaken as a redevelopment of it takes place in the waters south of New England. Due to the atmospheric block and orientation of upper level low pressure, this system will have an opportunity to strengthen and max out in intensity while doing a loop just to the south of New England, allowing it to produce a significant rain and wind event for southern New England Monday night through Tuesday night and very early Wednesday, before it finally pulls away to the southeast. At this time, a nosing down of high pressure from eastern Canada will provide drier weather later Wednesday into Thursday, although we will likely not see complete clearing during this time.

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arriving overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind calm evening then NE up to 10 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain tapering off during the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain returns. Areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain and areas of fog. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and drizzle in the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

Rex block pattern stays in place at least for the last few days of October, but may give enough so that the next low pressure area instead of being forced to take a more easterly track to the south of the region will cut more across New England. This low will impact our region with a rain threat as early as the night of October 29 and more likely during October 30 before pulling away with a more westerly air flow and just a few lingering showers for Halloween. Behind this we should get into a drier westerly air flow and seasonably cool weather for the first couple days of November.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

As previously mentioned, the forecast confidence is not high this far out, even less so than typically. Current idea is for a more westerly air flow regionally but the larger scale pattern is still vulnerable to blocking, so we’ll have to watch for that. I like the idea of drier weather overall however, with seasonable temperatures though a bit variable with a brief but decent chilly shot of air possible somewhere during this time.

C-19 Chat Post – October 24 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 23-27)

A “not-too-bad” weekend will be followed by a stretch of cloudy, wet weather. We are now undergoing the transition into the blocking pattern that has been speculated about for a while with uncertainty as to the timing and exact orientation. Well, the timing is now, and the type of blocking pattern is known as a “Rex block” which is high pressure to the north, in this case centered over eastern Canada, especially Quebec, and upper level low pressure to its south, in this upcoming case generally over New England. Before we get to the unsettled weather though, the weekend won’t be all that bad. We have a weak disturbance moving through the region this morning with lots of clouds around but as the disturbance departs there will be enough drying of air to provide more episodes of sun mixed with clouds during the day. It will be noticeably cooler than the last several days, in face cooler than it has been much of this very mild month, but with the lack of wind it won’t feel that bad outside. Tonight’s sky is expected to end up mostly clear and with high pressure moving overhead, we have a set-up for strong radiational cooling, so it should be a chilly night and some interior locations will likely see their first frosts which are coming late this season. Sunday will feature more sunshine with high pressure over the region, but high cloudiness will begin to increase as we go through the afternoon in advance of approaching low pressure as our blocking sets up. And then it’s time for a period of wet weather with rain moving into and across the region late Sunday night into Monday, which likely tapers off for a while during the day Monday as the initial thrust of moisture moves to the north. But low pressure is going to move eastward and spin itself up across the region Monday night and Tuesday when a more widespread and significant rain is likely. By Wednesday, the low will be on a weakening trend while slowly departing, but improvement in weather will be slow and that day may end up remaining overcast and occasionally wet as well.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 56-63. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 32-37 interior lower elevations, 38-43 elsewhere except 43-48 urban centers. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny then increasing high cloudiness later in the day. Highs 56-63. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arriving overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind calm evening then NE up to 10 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain tapering off during the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain returns. Areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain and areas of fog. Highs 48-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and drizzle. Highs 50-57. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

An unsettled weather pattern will continue with the block still in place, only starting to break down toward the end of the period. Currently I expect an intrusion of slightly drier air for October 28 before the next low pressure system impacts the region with more wet weather October 29 into October 30. This low should be weakening and pulling off to the east by late in the period with gradual improvement.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

A more zonal (west-to-east) upper pattern is expected to become established during this time frame with fair weather more dominant, and variable but mostly near to slightly above normal temperatures. Given guidance performance in medium ranges of late though, this forecast is only low to moderate confidence.

C-19 Chat Post – October 23 2021