C-19 Chat Post – January 18 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)

Many times we talk about a “break in the action” in reference to a short quiet period of weather in the middle of an active stormy pattern, but this time we had the opposite, a short-lived stormy period, i.e., one important storm system moving through yesterday, and now it’s back to a quiet pattern in which only minor disturbances cause minimal precipitation chances but otherwise it remains generally dry. The blocking pattern we’ve been in now for about a week will remain in place. The difference this time is it adjusts itself enough to allow a trend to colder weather here – not the brutal cold that much of Asia & Europe have seen in recent days, but a trend to a near to below normal temperature pattern.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-40 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY (MLK JR. DAY): Partly sunny. Chance of a passing rain or snow shower. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing snow shower. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)

Blocking continues. A weak system may produce a few snow showers early in the period. We will watch for a storm system to survive a little better as it approaches later in the period, but it’s far too soon to have any certainty on this threat.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)

Jury’s out on blocking. We may see it weaken or even break down, although odds still favor seasonably cold to slightly colder than normal and on the drier side. It’s a very low confidence outlook and will continue to monitor the pattern drivers.

C-19 Chat Post – January 17 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)

In comparison to our weather over the last few weeks, this is a pretty wild day, starting out with moderate to heavy rainfall and some decent wind. The passing potent low pressure area causing this is the exception to the rule of what will continue to be a fairly benign pattern going forward. Upon the passage of this low, which will cut northeastward across New England today, will arrive drier air once again that will be with us into the middle of the coming week. So, as of the writing of this blog update, a few more hours of rain at most, ending from southwest to northeast by the early afternoon. An additional passing rain shower is possible during the afternoon, and an even lesser risk that a stray snow shower makes it into the WHW forecast area tonight as colder air arrives in the wake of the departing low pressure area. A few rain/snow showers may cross the region on Monday (MLK Jr. Day) as some of the lingering energy from the original low pressure area crosses the Northeast. The next energy looks like it is going to be kept from organizing and also held mostly to the south as our blocking pattern goes on, so heading into the middle of next week the most we’d see is some clouds and a few snow showers as it will be colder at that time.

TODAY: Overcast through midday with rain, heavy at times, and a slight chance of thunder. Breaking clouds with scattered to isolated rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind ESE 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coast with gusts 35-45 MPH morning, shifting to S 5-15 MPH midday then SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts again later in the day.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing snow shower possible, mainly west and north of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR. DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of snow and rain showers. Highs 34-41. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)

Blocking continues. Minor, weak systems may produce a few snow showers at times as the overall temperatures will average near to below normal. It doesn’t look like any organized storm systems will impact the region at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)

Blocking may weaken. This change may allow for a better chance of being impacted by a more organized low pressure area sometime during this period, but that is far from certain. The odds still favor a drier pattern overall.

C-19 Chat Post – January 16 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)

Very little wind allowed low level moisture to hang around overnight with lots of clouds, but the temperature slipping below freezing in many locations has resulted in some black ice formation where surfaces did not dry off from yesterday’s precipitation, so be aware of that if venturing outside this morning! As the morning goes on we will see the temperature rise sufficiently to eliminate this problem, and enough dry air work in from a small high pressure area to the north of us to bring some sun today. A broad area of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes will send an occluding frontal system our way on which a new low will form and move over the region Saturday morning and midday. This will result in a solid area of rainfall, not that wide, but moderate to heavy, moving across the region from the pre-dawn hours to the midday hours of Saturday, before a dry slot moves in during the afternoon to put an end to the wet weather. A period of moderate and gusty southeasterly winds will take place with the rainfall, so driving will be a little bit of a challenge Saturday morning before conditions improve. A drier, colder westerly wind will evolve after the low’s passage, and snow showers will be occurring in the mountains to our west with only the slight chance that a few of them survive in snow flurry form into the WHW forecast area Saturday night. Expect a dry and chilly day Sunday with a gusty westerly breeze, and similar conditions for Monday, Dr. MLK Jr. Day, with the addition of a snow or rain shower risk a low pressure trough moves across the region. Another small area of high pressure should provide fair and chilly weather Tuesday.

TODAY: Sun and cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds thicken. Rain arrives west to east toward dawn. Lows 30-37 evening, rising toward 40 overnight. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH evening, increasing to 5-15 MPH with higher gusts coastal areas overnight.

SATURDAY: Overcast into midday with rain, possibly heavy at times. Breaking clouds with scattered to isolated rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind SSE 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coast with gusts 35-45 MPH morning, shifting to SW 5-15 MPH midday then W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts again later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing snow shower possible, mainly west and north of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (DR. MLK JR. DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of snow and rain showers. Highs 34-41. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)

What we know: Blocking pattern continues. What we don’t know for sure: Day-to-day details. Best guess on sensible weather: Best storm chance January 22-23, but may be a smaller system if one forms ahead of it offshore on January 20, which is quite possible. This could result in the second system being weaker and further south. Still much to iron out.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)

Biggest question here: Status of blocking pattern – does it stay in place, weaken, or break down? Still working on that. Because of this uncertainty and normal uncertainty at medium range, can’t get detailed, but can say that expected indices are more indicative of near to below normal temperatures and leaning slightly drier versus stormy at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – January 15 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)

A disturbance passing through the region today will result in a very minor precipitation event with a touch of rain and snow at times, but with surface temperatures above freezing, any snow that falls will not cause any issues. Drier weather moves back in tonight and Friday as a small area of high pressure noses into the region. A large area of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes region on Friday will send an occluding frontal system toward the East Coast late Friday into Saturday, on which a new low pressure area will form and bring some enhanced rainfall into the region to start the 3-day weekend. This will move out later Saturday and be followed by drier weather for Sunday before the energy associated with the original low pressure area comes across the region Monday, along with colder air, with the potential for some scattered snow shower activity on Dr. MLK Jr. Day.

TODAY: Cloudy. A few periods of light rain & snow likely. Highs 35-42. Wind SW to variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds thin out. Lows 29-36. Wind variable to N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers arriving west to east overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast with widespread rain showers morning and midday. Breaking clouds with scattered to isolated rain showers afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to W with higher gusts afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing snow shower possible, mainly west and north of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (DR. MLK JR. DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers except rain or snow showers South Coast. Highs 34-41. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)

We will still be under the influence of a blocking pattern and as has been the case for some time, anything beyond a few days is rather low confidence. So outside of knowing that the blocking pattern goes on, the day-to-day details are nearly impossible to even approach. Recent guidance has shown two potential storm systems, but I’d lean toward January 22-23 as being the “best” opportunity for a storm to impact the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)

Weakening and possible breaking down of the blocking pattern should begin during this period which may increase our risk for a couple of low pressure impacts as a southern storm track shifts a little bit more to the north. Still low confidence but feel this is the most likely scenario at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – January 14 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)

The quiet stretch of weather continues for another 3 days, although we have a tiny bit to watch for Thursday as low pressure passing well south of us will be raced by a disturbance passing through here, and their distant connection may help generate a bit of light rain and snow in our area. Finally a more potent system will make its way into the Northeast Friday night and Saturday, first as a broad area of low pressure entering the Great Lakes, and as its frontal system nears the East Coast we’ll see a new low form on it. There should be enough mild air around that the meaningful precipitation from this system falls as rain during the morning and midday hours of Saturday, based on current timing. While the exact track of that low is not nailed down yet, it should be close to or right over southeastern New England, and assuming it’s not moving more slowly than currently expected, we should see a drier end to Saturday, along with more wind, as snow showers stack up in the mountains west and north of our region. Probably should not rule out a stray snow shower making it into the WHW forecast area Saturday night. Sunday, expect a chilly day with a gusty wind but fair weather as low pressure drifts away via the Maritime Provinces of Canada and a sliver of high pressure approaches from the west.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period or two of very light rain and/or snow possible. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely overnight. Lows 35-42 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast with widespread rain showers morning and midday. Breaking clouds with scattered to isolated rain showers afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to W with higher gusts afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing snow shower possible, mainly west and north of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH in the morning, diminishing in the afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)

Lingering low pressure in the Great Lakes region finally moves eastward through New England while a storm generates offshore, but probably too far offshore for direct impact here on Monday (Dr. MLK Jr. Day), leaving our region with just a chance of snow showers with seasonably cold air. Blocking pattern continues and chilly/dry weather should dominate the middle of next week with any additional disturbances passing to the south, but we may need to watch for an approaching low pressure area by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)

Still low confidence, but a bit more indication that we’ll start to see the blocking pattern break down, or at least weaken. Watching for potential storm systems to impact the region to start the period, and again late in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – January 13 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 12-16)

Blocking rolls on. We stay fairly quiet for a few more days before a low pressure system finally has a more notable impact on the region, but not until Saturday as it looks now. We will still some episodic cloudiness from weak disturbances passing by this area through Thursday. High pressure center in Canada will nose down into the region Thursday night and Friday, with a tranquil period of weather hanging on until a broad low pressure system enters the Great Lakes region and pushes its frontal boundary toward the East Coast where a new low pressure area will form southwest of New England, moving just west of or over our region early on Saturday. The set-up and track likely means a period of rain here Saturday morning. While it’s still several days away, it looks like this system may be moving along so we dry out before Saturday’s over, but will tweak the timing & resultant forecast as needed.

TODAY: Sun & clouds, sun ruling the morning-midday, clouds ruling later. Highs 36-43. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds dominant evening before decreasing during overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely overnight. Lows 35-42 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast with widespread rain showers morning. Breaking clouds afternoon from west to east. Highs 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to W with higher gusts afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)

High pressure is expected to bring fair and seasonably chilly weather January 17. As we continue to be in a blocking pattern the general idea is to return to the set-up we’ve had much of this week with weaker energy moving through out area, so there is potential for some unsettled weather a couple of times but the early outlook is for no major storm systems.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)

A very low confidence forecast period (lower than even typically for this far out). Continuing to monitor for possible weakening or break down of blocking, but also a more active pattern with increased chances for unsettled weather later in the month, as well as at least slightly better risk of colder weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 12 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)

The atmospheric block will continue during the next 5 days, although this pattern has been resulting in dry weather and slightly above average temperatures and will continue to do just that during the next 4 days, although some episodes of cloudiness will be the result of weak disturbances moving across the region. Finally by Friday, a stronger low will take a track northwest of New England, dragging milder air in along with rain showers, likely ending the lengthy stretch of dry weather.

TODAY: Early sun otherwise mainly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy early then clearing west to east. Lows 22-29. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny through midday then some clouds returning again. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely especially afternoon and night. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)

As low pressure continues to pass north of the region and move away January 16 may dawn showery and mild followed by drying & colder along with a gusty wind. High pressure brings fair weather for January 17. Watching 1 or 2 potential systems to bring unsettled weather between January 18 & 20 but this is very low confidence. Temperatures look somewhat closer to normal for the middle and end of the period but not seeing as strong a sign of a visit from arctic air as was previously indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)

Continuing to monitor for possible weakening or break down of blocking, but also a more active pattern with increased chances for unsettled weather later in the month, as well as at least slightly better risk of colder weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 11 2021