C-19 Chat Post – March 13 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 12-16)

Three cold fronts bring us back to reality and then some over the next few days, reminding us this is March, and for a handful of days-to-come, still winter. We start out pleasantly mild today as the first cold front goes through with a few sprinkles or light showers of rain (one occurring here as I write this at 6:30 a.m.), and the wind kicks up but we don’t really see any cold air with this first front, just a step-down from yesterday’s warmth, however still significantly above the mid March normal. It’s when the second front comes through tonight, perhaps with a rain or snow shower, that we see the first wave of cold surge into the region, accompanied by more wind overnight and into Saturday, enough that a few isolated power outages from downed tree limbs may occur. The wind will back of a bit during the day Saturday and while it will be significantly colder than today, the strong mid March sun (mixed with a few clouds) will keep it tolerable. The third cold front will come through during Sunday with a few clouds and an outside risk of a passing snow shower, but mainly its effect will be to bring in even colder air for Sunday night and Monday. The biggest question of this forecast is Tuesday. Low pressure will approach from the west with cold air still in place. The medium range guidance, no surprise, ranges widely in its outcomes from a miss and continued dry weather, to a measurable snowfall. I’ll put it as a chance for a variety of precipitation and will fine-tune from there.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a possible rain shower early morning, then mostly sunny. Highs 60-67 except 52-59 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A brief rain or snow shower possible mid evening. Lows 24-31. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-45 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH, gusts to around 30 MPH in the morning, diminishing in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-31. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy Highs 40-47 in the morning. Falling temperatures in the afternoon. Wind 5-15 MPH morning, shifting to N and increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to slightly below 0 at times.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 17-21)

We’ll be just on the colder side of a boundary between a continued cold Canada and a warmer US Southeast, as previously mentioned. What remains to be seen is if and when any storminess will impact our region. After eyeing a potential for Tuesday, we look for another one around March 18-19 based on current timing. While the general pattern is not too tough to see, the day-to-day weather is, so this is an area that much more analysis will be needed going forward.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 22-26)

The overall regime will keep us in a battle zone between lingering winter cold in Canada and warmer spring weather in the US Southeast, again typical for this time of year. This pattern leaves us vulnerable to quick weather changes and temperature swings.

C-19 Chat Post – March 12 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 11-15)

Our warm surge peaks today with a southwest wind increasing across the region, driving the warm air in. But of course, any time in the late winter into very early spring the ocean waters around New England are at their coldest of the season, and that influence will be seen in the lower temperatures across the South Coast region and also cooler along portions of our irregular eastern shoreline where pieces of land stick out in such a way that there is enough water to their southwest to cool them down as well. Two cold fronts will cross there region, one Friday morning and another Friday evening, to put an end to the mild party, but the first front, which may produce a brief rain shower as it passes, is not delivering the cold air, just a wind shift and an ever-so-slightly cooler air mass than the one we’ll be in today. It is the second front which will bring us back to reality for the coming weekend, which will be decidedly colder, along with wind. Initially, some of the wind Friday night into early Saturday may be strong enough to result in some downed tree limbs on weaker trees, with isolated power outages. The weekend will be dry as we get a fresh delivery of arctic air, and this cold and dry weather will continue through Monday, “The Ides of March”…

TODAY: Areas of light fog early morning. Partly sunny. Highs ranging widely from 45-52 Nantucket and outer Cape Cod to 53-60 remainder of South Coast to 61-68 most other areas except 65-72 interior valley locations. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Temperatures rise to near 50 where they were in the 40s previously, elsewhere lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a possible rain shower early morning, then mostly sunny. Highs 60-67 except 52-59 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 0 at times.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 16-20)

Cold Canada, warm US Southeast, we should be near but on the colder side of the boundary for most of this period. Temperatures below normal. Watching for two possible low pressure impacts that may include frozen precipitation for at least parts of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 21-25)

The early days of astronomical spring will find us still in a battle zone between lingering winter air in Canada and warming early spring air in the US Southeast. This is not atypical whatsoever for our region at this time of year. We’ll be vulnerable to temperature swings and additional unsettled weather.

C-19 Chat Post – March 11 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 10-14)

A display of March temperature variability today as inland sections warm and the coast is chilled by the development of a sea breeze. This is the result of high pressure overhead, light wind, a warming air mass and plenty of sun to work on heating the landmass, which results in rising of warmed air, which then has to be replaced by air from somewhere. The logical “choice” by the atmosphere: the air over the chilly Atlantic, more dense, sitting right at the surface and ready to move on inland to take the place of the departing (rising) warm air. That is your sea breeze – and we’ll see it today. Tomorrow though, it’ll be different, as we will be in a stronger southwesterly air flow due to a stronger pressure gradient (different between high pressure off to our south and low pressure passing to our north). But while this southwest wind warms most of us up, it will be much modified passing over Long Island Sound therefore will prevent the South Coast from warming too much. We also see a smaller scale version of this along our irregular eastern shoreline where pieces of land stick out in such a way that there is enough water to their southwest to cool them down as well. We’ll see this in places like Nahant MA, the south side of Cape Ann, and other localized places. But for the city of Boston, there will be a significant difference, perhaps as much as 20 degrees, between today’s and Thursday’s high temperatures. As has been the case for a couple of days, how warm it gets on Friday will depend on the timing of a cold front. Actually, it looks like 2 fronts are going to come through, one in the morning that may bring with it a few rain showers, and a stronger one in the evening, behind which a sharper turn to cold air lies. So between the two, we will still have a fairly mild day Friday, but most areas should fail to match their high temperatures of Thursday. Our weekend will see a downward temperature trend but with dry weather. On the way there though, we may see a period of strong and gusty winds Friday night into a portion of Saturday – not as strong as the wind event we recently saw, but may still be enough to take down some tree limbs and weakened trees and lead to a few power outages.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52 coastal plain, 53-60 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 36-43 evening then rising slowly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening, SW 5-15 MPH overnight.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68 except 53-60 South Coast and 45-52 islands and outer Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a possible rain shower early to mid morning. Partly to mostly sunny late morning on. Highs 59-66 except 51-58 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 15-19)

Temperatures near to below normal, likely coldest early in this period. Watching for unsettled weather around March 16-17 otherwise mostly dry.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 20-24)

While the vernal equinox occurs on March 20 our position between cold air in Canada and warmer air in the US Southeast leaves us vulnerable to unsettled weather, which may include frozen precipitation, and temperatures near to below normal for this period heading into late month.

C-19 Chat Post – March 10 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 9-13)

A warm front passed by overnight with cloudiness and a few areas to the north seeing a few snow showers, and a weak cold front will cross the region later today but you’ll hardly notice it – we just have a nice day in store. The warm-up increases for the interior Wednesday but a weak wind gradient means that coastal areas will have a sea breeze and will be much cooler, but again another fair weather day. All areas get into southwesterly winds on Thursday which will be warmer for most, with the exception of coastal areas where a southwest wind has to travel over some ocean water first – those places, particularly the South Coast, will be coolest that day. Friday, a cold front slices across the region from north to south, maybe bringing a few rain showers, certainly a lot more clouds, and probably resulting in an “upside-down” temperature day, warmest the first half, cooling later, again highly dependent on the precise timing of the front. Saturday will be a “back-to-reality” day, with temperatures more typical for mid March but with dry weather as high pressure presses in from Canada.

TODAY: Early clouds then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind NW up to 10 MPH then calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52 coastal plain, 53-63 well inland. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 evening, may rise slightly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening, SW 5-15 MPH overnight.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-68 except 53-60 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 59-66 except 51-58 South Coast through midday, then falling temperatures by later in the day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW then N from north to south midday on.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 14-18)

Dry, colder (30s) March 14 to end the weekend and early next week for the Ides on March 15. Watching for unsettled weather as low pressure approaches and moves through around March 16 and it may include some frozen precipitation. Drier and still on the chilly side for later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 19-23)

Near to below normal temperatures with additional unsettled weather possible as we’ll be near a boundary between a cold Canada and mild US Southeast.

C-19 Chat Post – March 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 8-12)

One week of March in the books, and the second week of the third month of 2021 will showcase some of the swings of weather, especially temperature, that the month is known for here in New England. But we’ll start out with a fairly tranquil and chilly day today under the influence of high pressure. As this high center slips to the south, first a warm front will cross the region from west to east tonight producing an increase in cloudiness. While a band of snow will be most prominent along this boundary across northern New England, some areas of snow are also possible here in southeastern New England as it passes by, but not enough to perhaps lightly coat the ground with snow in the pre-dawn hours. Tuesday, the front will be by, the sun will return, and any snow that dusted the ground would quickly vanish as we saw significantly milder air arrive. But that will be just a preview of what’s to come. First, a weak cold frontal boundary will slip into the region nearly unnoticed as it will be running out of forward motion later Tuesday and also have little or no cloud cover with it, and then the boundary will push back to the north again at night. As high pressure sits along the Middle Atlantic Coast and extends offshore, the region will be in a southwesterly air flow through midweek. Wednesday, this air flow may be weak enough so that midday and afternoon sea breeze form along the NH & MA eastern shores. This would hold temperatures back from reaching the levels they reach inland. The other except, both Wednesday & Thursday, will be that a southwesterly air flow comes off ocean water along the South Coast, which would be cooler as well. When we get to Friday, we’ll see cloudiness and a risk of rain showers as a cold front moves in from the north, but the temperature forecast for that day is critically dependent on the timing of this front. It’s a day-five forecast at this point but my early guess is that the frontal boundary will still be north of the WHW forecast area when the day starts, so it will be quite a mild day as well, but not until its end, because it will be a day when the temperature starts to drop significantly as the front pushes through. Obviously, there’s fine-tuning to be done for Friday’s forecast.

TODAY: Sunshine but some high clouds in the western sky later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds advance west to east. Snow showers possible overnight with scattered dustings and light coatings of snow. Lows 22-29. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Early clouds then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW up to 10 MPH then calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65 except 50-57 South Coast and some East Coast areas. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but probable sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-68 except 53-60 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 59-66 except 51-58 South Coast through midday, then falling temperatures by later in the day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW then N from north to south midday on.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 13-17)

Dry, cooler to colder weekend (40s Saturday, 30s Sunday) as high pressure builds in from Canada. Watch the period later March 15 to early March 17 for unsettled weather which may include some wintry precipitation.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 18-22)

Near to below normal temperatures with additional unsettled weather possible as we’ll be near a boundary between a cold Canada and mild US Southeast.

C-19 Chat Post – March 8 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 7-11)

A large area of low pressure that has been sitting over the Canadian Maritime Provinces for the last few days delivering late winter cold to us will pull away today as an area of high pressure slides slowly eastward from the Great Lakes keeping us breezy and cold but bright for today. Monday, this high will sink a bit more to the southeast through the Ohio Valley and the cold air will ease up a bit more on us with more dry weather. A weak trough of low pressure will pass through the region early Tuesday with some cloudiness and a possible snow shower as it will still be cold, but a quick warm-up ensues after the passage of this trough with a good chance that much of the region breaks into the 50s during Tuesday. A little bubble of high pressure behind this trough will keep the winds light enough on Wednesday so while the warm-up continues inland, it may be temporarily delayed at the coast due to the development of a sea breeze. But Thursday, the main high center will be along and offshore of the Middle Atlantic Coast and the boundary of Canadian cold will still be to our north, and that will become the warmest day for most of the region, except once again temperature will be significantly modified and cooler where a southwest wind comes off ocean water along the South Coast and in the irregularly shaped land areas along the East Coast of MA that sit north and east of water (example, Nahant and parts of Cape Ann).

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening then clouds with a possible snow shower overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Early clouds then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65 except cooler South Coast and some East Coast areas. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but probable sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-68 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 12-16)

Our area at least starts out mild on March 12 but we’ll have to watch for the timing of a cold front from the north to see if we make it through the day in the mild air or turn drastically cooler, which will happen at some point before or by March 13. Both days have the potential for unsettled weather, the first with the front, the second with a possible wave of low pressure moving along the boundary after it’s gone by. High pressure should bring dry/chilly weather for March 14 before we have to watch for additional unsettled weather in the March 15-16 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 17-21)

Cold Canada, warm US Southeast, and we will be in between the two, in the battle zone, probably on the colder side of it. This results in a potential for wintry precipitation at some point during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – March 7 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)

The next 5 days will feature dry weather, but during this period we will undergo a shift in the weather pattern. The upper level low pressure area and its attendant core of arctic air which brought us a bitter blast earlier this week before moving away to allow a one-day warm-up on Wednesday did a loop back into eastern Canada as a larger low pressure system and has been sitting there for a couple days, pumping more cold and wind into the region. This system is going to pull away at a snail’s pace during this weekend, which will still be cold, but we will see an abatement of the wind with time. When we get to Monday with a westerly air flow, it will just be more of a “normal” March chill. Tuesday may end up a little warmer but it may be a modest warm-up initially as a little trough swings through and flips the wind back to the northwest for a while. Finally, Wednesday will be the day that high pressure has made its way to the Mid Atlantic Coast and extending offshore, and putting our region into a much milder southwesterly air flow – and you’ll feel it. But there is a caveat. Where that air travels over water first, the warm up will not be nearly as pronounced. Also, if the wind flow is not strong enough, even east-facing shores could see the development of a sea breeze on Wednesday afternoon which would keep them significantly cooler. We will see how that goes…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 53-60 except cooler South Coast and possibly turning cooler East Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, possible sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)

March 11 should be the mildest day of next week with a decent southwesterly air flow. Transition follows, but timing of arrival of cold air from north is questionable – sometime during March 12 as it stands now. This will determine how mild that day can get, but it will likely turn unsettled March 12-13 during this transition before high pressure moves in later in the period with dry but chilly weather. Not a high confidence forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)

Cold Canada, warm US Southeast, and we will be in between the two, in the battle zone, probably on the colder side of it. This results in a potential for wintry precipitation at some point during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – March 6 2021