Thursday January 21 2021 Forecast (7:34AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 21-25)

A broad area of low pressure will track north of New England through Friday, dragging its warm front through the region today, which may result in a touch of light snow from northern MA northward, and its cold front across the region on Friday, which will be a milder day and see a passing rain or snow shower. Most of the region will be dry though on both days. This weekend, a piece of modified arctic air slips out of Canada into the Northeast as high pressure sets up shop north of the Great Lakes, so we will be cold and dry here. This cold/dry air will hold into Monday as we start to watch a storm approaching the East Coast from the Midwest. Normally this would be rather concerning in winter, but it is not nearly so this time around. More about that after the detailed forecast for the next 5 days…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through early afternoon with a period or 2 of very light snow possible in southern NH and northern MA. Partly sunny later. Highs 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A passing rain or snow shower possible, mainly afternoon and west and north of Boston. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW by late in the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of a snow shower evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun & high clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 26-30)

While we need to continue to monitor a passing storm system south of New England January 26 to early January 27, and there is still uncertainty regarding how far north the track will be, there will also potentially be an elongated trough behind it to watch as well. But right now the leaning is that we’ll continue to have the atmospheric block set up in such a way that low pressure over the Maritime Provinces of Canada will help keep this storm from becoming too strong and from coming too far north, so odds favor a miss or just a glancing blow favoring southern parts of the region. Dry/cold weather follows this for January 28-29. May need to watch for another approaching low pressure system by the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

Potential impact by low pressure both at the start and end of this period. The odds however continue to be on the side of mostly quiet weather. There’s still a lot of uncertainty at this point on the duration and strength of the blocking pattern this far out – does it hold, weaken, or break down? – a question that cannot be answered yet.

59 thoughts on “Thursday January 21 2021 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Down to 21 here this morning making it the coldest morning
    in some time. 🙂

      1. I am afraid it just may not be in the cards. I have resigned myself to that and if it does pan out, then it is a bonus. 🙂

  7. Thanks TK!

    The Boston above average streak went to 30 yesterday. However, with a low of 21 this morning and a pretty solid cloud deck rolling in, it seems likely it will end today. Still, a full month in a row above average is quite a feat.

    I’m in good agreements with TK’s thoughts above. For the first time in a long while, we do at least have some systems to watch. Right now odds favor misses over hits for SNE, but I wouldn’t yet write off snow/mix potential over the next 7 days.

  11. Thank you TK!
    Coming down fairly heavy here now. Everything whitening up quickly, including the roads.

  14. Thank you, TK. The kids gave me story worth Christmas 2019. If you are not familiar with it and to share memories with your kids and grandkids, I’d recommend. My last story was on the blizzard of 1978. I’m watching a video now

    Some flurries here

  18. I feel that of the major operational models, the GFS has the best overall handle on the current pattern.

    1. Well now, that figures, doesn’t it! the major one that
      keeps having suppressed solutions. What else is new?????

  21. Just starting to snow here.
    Radar shows a moderate thump in the not too distant future.

    Cold day.

    The last time it was below zero in our neck of the woods was January 7 and 8, 2018, more than three years ago, with back-to-back negative 5 minimums.

  22. Nice little snow shower here. Way more than flurries, but quite
    a snow squall either. Ground dusted white for sure.

      1. Just BRUTAL!!!!

        I’d almost rather a cutter, then we at least get some action, even if it is rain. This way, some high clouds as we wave
        the system GOOD_BYE!!!!

  27. Thank you, TK!

    Back Bay got a dusting of snow. Today certainly looks and feels like winter for the first time in about 5 weeks. I like it.

    Get to wear my Icelandic sweater.

    Looking forward to a fairly chilly weekend. I’d like it about 10 degrees colder, but I’ll take anything at this point.

  28. So far I have only used one bag of ice melt and that was for the October snow that was very stubborn to melt. The December event which was mostly fluffy snow melted away once temps shot up just before and on Christmas morning.

  29. I was outside for a bit. Looks like a solid 1/4 inch here in JP.
    Wow! A monster snow storm to say the least. I think we are
    snow bound for about a week!!!!

  31. The snow area extended a bit further south than I thought it would today. Active warm front (relatively) in a quiet overall pattern. Don’t think we’ll see much from the cold front tomorrow but can’t rule out a spotty something-or-other.

    COLD & DRY weekend, with wind! Not all that far below normal, but after a month-plus stretch of milder than average weather, it’s going to feel pretty brutal to be out in it for any length of time, unless this is your kind of thing (Joshua haha). 😉

    1. I don’t see anything that I would even remotely consider brutally cold. 🙂 🙂
      Point me in camp Joshua, almost.

    1. I remember skiing all day at 14 below with a roaring wind.
      It was wonderful!! My wife was there with me.

  35. I am hoping Harvey is right. I have only gotten one accumulating snow so far this month back on the 3rd and that was only an inch. Thank God for that mid December snowstorm.

  36. Well here, it was our 3rd straight day of snow flakes in the air and today we got a legitimate coating on all surfaces.

    A split flow will become more predominant and the confluent flow over New England is not supportive of widespread snowfall in SNE next week. Systems will pass to our north and to our south.

    While not snowy, interesting weather times, and I for one am noting some of the global climatic and synoptic conditions and the actual regional weather outcomes, as this has been rather unique set up with limited past comparative data.

  37. I don’t think I ever said new weather post so….
    New weather post! Even though I think everybody figured that out by now. 😉

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